Bill weakens, but still generating huge waves
Hurricane Bill has peaked in intensity, and now shows signs of weakening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show that the hurricane is no longer as symmetric as it once was, with an oval instead of circular shape to its cloud pattern. Upper-level cirrus clouds are restricted on the storm's southwest side, indicating that upper-level winds from the southwest are shearing the storm. The University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis shows about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear impacting Bill. The latest 8:18am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that the eyewall had a gap in its southwest side, and the pressure had risen 2 mb since last night, to 951 mb. Maximum winds at the surface observed by the SFMR instrument were only Category 2 strength, though winds measured at the aircraft flight level of 10,000 feet still suggested Bill may be a Category 3 hurricane.
Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next three days, and it is possible Bill may see a relaxation of the wind shear affecting it, allowing re-intensification to Category 4 status. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will be plenty warm over the next three days, as Bill traverses a region of ocean with SSTs of 28 - 29°C. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next three days.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at 1:33 pm EDT Thursday 8/20/09. Bill had an oval shape oriented SW - NE, and was missing upper-level cirrus clouds on the southwest side, indicating that wind shear from strong upper-level southwesterly winds was affecting it.
Water vapor satellite loops continue to show two small "short-wave" troughs of low pressure to the northwest of Bill, and these troughs are continuing to steer Bill to the northwest. The short wave troughs (so called because they have a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) are not strong enough to turn Bill due north, so Bill is expected to miss Bermuda. The official NHC forecast has the radius of tropical storm force winds from Bill barely reaching Bermuda on Saturday, so the island can expect sustained winds in the 35 - 45 mph range for a few hours on Saturday if the hurricane follows the NHC forecast track.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 10:15am EDT Wednesday August 19, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast this weekend. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. The models have moved the forecast landfall point of Bill several hundred miles back and forth to the east and west over the past few days, but mostly agree that Cape Cod and Maine will probably miss a direct hit by Bill. However, these regions are still at the edge of Bill's cone of uncertainty, and a direct strike by Bill at Category 1 or 2 strength is a possibility. However, it is more likely that Bill will come ashore over the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland. If Bill follows the official NHC forecast path, winds on Cape Cod and in eastern Maine are likely to remain below tropical storm force (below 39 mph).
Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill is generating huge waves, thanks to its enormous size and major hurricane intensity. Bill passed about 75 miles southwest of Buoy 41044 this morning, and the buoy recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 92 mph, with a significant wave height (the height of the average 1/3 highest waves) of 38.8 feet. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 50 feet by Saturday. Large swells from Bill will reach Bermuda this afternoon, increasing seas to 5 - 9 feet, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Seas will increase to 10 - 20 feet on Friday and 20 - 30 feet on Saturday as Bill makes its closest approach to the island.
In the U.S., Bill's swells will reach New York's Long Island on Friday afternoon, and seas will build to 7 - 10' on Saturday and 12 - 16' on Sunday in the near shore waters. By Friday night, Bill's swells will be affecting the entire U.S. East Coast from Florida to Cape Cod. Maximum sea heights in near shore waters over the weekend will be about 7' from Florida to South Carolina, 11 - 14' along the North Carolina coast, 8 - 11' along the mid-Atlantic coast, and 10 - 11' along the coast of Maine. The highest waves along the U.S. coast will occur at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where waves of 18 - 23' are being forecast by NOAA for Sunday. Bill's high waves are going to cause millions of dollars in erosion damage and create very dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions along the coast.
Hurricane History of Canada
Canada is no stranger to hurricanes, and receives a hit by a Category 1 or stronger hurricane several times per decade, on average. The most recent hurricane strike on Canada occurred in 2008, when Hurricane Kyle struck the southwestern tip of Nova Scotia, just north of Yarmouth. Kyle was rated a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at landfall, but damage was limited to uprooted trees, scattered power outages, and minor street flooding in Shelburne. The other hurricane to hit Nova Scotia this decade was much more serious. In 2003, Hurricane Juan made landfall at Halifax, Nova Scotia, as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. A record storm surge of 4.9 feet inundated the city's waterfront, resulting in extensive flooding of the Halifax and Dartmouth waterfront properties. A buoy just outside Halifax Harbor measured a significant wave height of 9 meters (30 feet), and maximum wave heights of 20 meters (65 feet). Four people died in the storm. Juan downed a phenomenal number of trees--agriculture specialists estimate that 50 - 100 million trees blew down in Nova Scotia in two hours, with one million downed in Halifax alone. The Canadian Hurricane Center has a nice historical hurricane page with more information and photos.
Figure 3. Close up view of the damage at the Bedford Yacht Club after Hurricane Juan in 2003. Photo: Gary Dunbrack. Image credit: Environment Canada website on Hurricane Juan.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no reliable models are calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Didn't apocalyps have Bill making landfall on the west coast of Texas a few days ago??? LOL
Even a Hurricane avoids Texas.
To much dust overthere.
too early to tell we just have to wait and see.
Sometimes they get lucky.If you always say"its going out to sea,sometimes it happens.
But it aint over untill the fat lady sings.
Isn't your mommy calling you for breakfast? You are going to be late for the bus. You need to get on the short one by the way.
LOL. best quote of the day!!!
LOL!!!
Wish the ECMWF tracker was included in the spaghetti plots, I suspect it has done well also. They don't release that data even on a delayed basis.
Okay...I have to give ya props for a funny answer....
Link
Looks like we might have a new system a new system soon in the CATL. If the wave ~30W can keep it up past DMAX. Even though SAL is not as extensive as before it could represent a challenge for this one.
I wonder if NHC is going to put a yellow circle on 8am advisory. models showing a chance of development.
I live on Cape Cod so will be checking in frequently.
Bill weakens as it eyes Bermuda; Tropical Update
Link
Most likely they have a disclaimer around there to not show their spaghetti plots outside of institutions.
It is sad... is great that the ECMWF development group and management are doing a great job with the model but unfortunately I don't like how they like to keep this model so hush hush... for lack of better terms.
I guess they need to money in order to keep up such an outstanding model.
I'm actually more afraid that my car insurance might expire before I can pay.
We will see... I say that if it can keep up the convection and increase its VORT values and remain presentable/enhance until tonight @8PM then I can seee them putting a yellow on it.
The best you can do is take a little boat and row overthere.That would be the best place.
The ECMWF has been trending further westward with this system each run. Since a ridging pattern will start to develop in the east coast, I'll keep an eye on it.
USA is not in the cone anymore with Bill. Wave action only w/Bill for the USA.....
The DLM High that was in between the Longwave and Bill has deteriorated looks it will be able to continue on a NNW to N heading for another 36 to 48hr (subject to chance).
Cue the "Jaws" music...
That radar is a seriously scary thing to watch.
Keeping Bermuda in my prayers.
Definitely... I'm pretty sure you saw the CMC... it has also moderated and picked up on the building ridge as well.
He jumped all the way west into the GOM.
They are surching for Bill as we speak.
Westcaster
lol, How am I westcaster?
He's back now.
lets hope it stays away from any landmasses..we dont need any fatalities from bill..
Ignored!
LMAO..
haven't you noticed he did a quick loop and jumped oceans he's in the pacific now..
Wx can you give me the link to what you are talking about. Still learning here.
Hehe... quite a powerful trough...
Why did you ignore me back in 1992?
It is about 17 years later.
Should it not be time to forgive me?
Then i will always be on youre WESTside.
LALALALALA
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