Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next
The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.
Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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WU 10 step program? LOL j/k
Checking in today.Seems Bill is still weakening,Yeah!!
So, should we be seeing a decent amount of tropical activity coming (and into September) or does it look like things or going to be slower now?
I know it well. It wasn't an ex-Hurricane, though. Just a very strong fall storm with excellent dynamics.
Atlantic facing beaches closed/closing/limiting access
August 22, 2009, 9:30am - Hurricane Bill is passing the coast of North Carolina and is moving north at 22 mph with sustained winds of 105 mph. 6' swell from the hurricane is hitting Cape Cod beaches during this morning's low tide. At high tide this afternoon the waves should be 8-10'. Nantucket buoy shows 8.5' swell with a 14 second period as of 8:50am. Atlantic facing beaches on Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are closed, closing or limiting access. During today's high tide the waves will be hitting dunes, cliffs and stairways that access the beaches and the beaches will essentially disappear for a few hours. Serious erosion is likely.
i think
Outer bands of Bill on Boston NWS radar.
The word "troll" is from our Norse mythology which were a race of giants. It now means a goblin in the Scandinavian language.
Wonderful post! Thank you!
Narragansett Beach Cam
Is that considered a ULL and could someone put some valid words to what could happen with it?
Link
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1225 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA TO WATCH HILL RI OUT TO
25 NM
ANZ254-230415-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
1225 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT
REST OF TODAY
SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
TONIGHT
NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT...BECOMING
N 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT...BUILDING TO 9 TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. S AND E OF
NANTUCKET...SEAS 9 TO 14 FT...BUILDING TO 12 TO 17 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUN
N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT... BECOMING SW
10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT...SUBSIDING TO
9 TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM IN
THE MORNING.
SUN NIGHT
SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 TO 9 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE
OF TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VSBY 1 TO
3 NM.
Thank you for this comment. I am very much an amateur when it comes to weather, but I am very interested in it. I've asked a couple of very beginner questions, and was totally ignored and did not ever post again. A lot of it goes over my head, but I plod on and research other sites with questions I have.
Maybe this is not the right forum for beginners? Is there a forum for beginners on this site that I've completely missed? Thanks...
West Palm Beach, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 54 min 10 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
89 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.97 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 95 °F
In that image an Anti-cyclone is also visible in the Caribbean, so its also possible to see development down there and off the Bahamas.
Bill has expanded greatly over the last few hours.
Questions are best directed to an individual here. And they almost always get answered if you do that.
An open question often gets left to someone else, especially in busy times.
Welcome to here. It is a good place to learn...
feel free to ask questions, many on here will not answer you that is the reality of this blog. However there are many regulars on here who will gladly answer your questions. If you watch and see you will notice them right off and they will take a bit but they will reply. I also send private emails to StormW he will answer by return mail. Also Tampa Spin, Kman islander, BAhahurricane, Stormchaser and others will always respond. I will If I can answer your questions, however my knowledge is not at their level yet. Im not a met im an engineer!
It is a ULL. The ULL was already there before Bill added some convection to it as part of one of his outer bands. I don't think any of the models forecast anything, and I don't think it is really in the right position to work its way down to the surface.
Peggy's Cove Web Cam
You can try going to the blogs (just click on their name) of some of the people you find more knowledgeable. If they maintain an active blog, you can leave a question there. It may not get answered right away, but you will find they will generally respond to you.
Thanks
Wow, Peggy's Cove is looking dismal today!
Hope those crowds keep well back if they're out there tomorrow.
OK. I see the chunk Bill spun off is directly SSW of the ULL and the ULL is tapping that energy as you said. Thanks for the solid answer.
we are very lucky....
It will be closed at the gates tomorrow.
OFCI is official guidance
I agree with that. Looking at the visible loop, it looks like a big squeeze hapening along the New Jersey Coast. Waiting to see what the HCH find as they are now approaching the COC.
No reason you should leave the site. I have been lurking for years and only recently joined. Many on here have been very helpful, especially with newcomers like ourselves. Don't be bullied our feel you are being ignored. I believe they the more knowledgeable on this web-site may be too busy at the moment and others do not have the correct answer. It is a very informative and fun site (most of the time) Enjoy it and learn and welcome.
60mph winds associated with some storms.
Go Rebels
this writer will answer all questions asked. It should be noted however, that the information provided will usually be wrong.
heheheh
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