Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2009

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The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.

Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.

Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill
Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill

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871. F5Tornado
9:06 AM GMT on August 24, 2009
By the way all

BIll looks great today!
870. F5Tornado
9:05 AM GMT on August 24, 2009
Well.... I can see I have defeated the competetion. Or evrybody has loogged out. Well, goodnight, somebody tell Future Met what I said, night!
869. F5Tornado
8:36 AM GMT on August 24, 2009
Good morning all,

Ill get to the topic of upcoming supposedly Danny in a mniute, but fist, I veiwed that video on the UTube FutureMet, and it suprises me that they accuse like that. The Weather Channel is supposed to talk about the weather thats why it says WEATHER forgive me if I am being blunt, but the coverage of the weather channel is perfect to me, the only problem is maybe they have to many commercials, but then a agin, all TV programs have them. And besides, Orion actes like its the end of the world, you listen to the guy back in the middle-end of the show, and he is acting like its a crisis. What does it take to make orion happy you think, prints, no music, no graphics, no seasoning in the channel? That sounds kind of dull. Besides, I like jazz and the graphics, I pay closer attention to the channel naturally. What do you think?
868. popartpete
8:22 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Hey Blog buddies...Bill stayed blessedly clear of the Jersey Shore, however, a large set of waves and overcast did arrive, but barely noticeable.
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
867. yonzabam
2:44 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Interesting report on ocean temperatures. I know this article mentions G-Warming. Please don't start a debate on that tortured subject.

With these high ocean tempuratures wouldn't this year produce more and stronger tropical cyclones worldwide? Perhaps other factors are more important than sea surface temperatures?

World in Hot Water as Ocean Temperatures Reach Record High

Thursday , August 20, 2009

WASHINGTON

July was the hottest month for the world's oceans in almost 130 years of record-keeping.

The average water temperature worldwide was 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit according to the National Climatic Data Center,...


Thanks for the link. I hadn't heard about this. I'm not a met, but I've been reading avidly on the subject of global warming for a long time.

Most speculation has focussed on rising SSTs, but warmer water at depth is very important for maintaining hurricane strength and there's evidence this is getting warmer, too.

Wind shear is extremely important, too, and for the U.S. the strength of the Bermuda high.

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2909
866. LightningCharmer
2:25 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
865. LightningCharmer
2:08 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Interesting report on ocean temperatures. I know this article mentions G-Warming. Please don't start a debate on that tortured subject.

With these high ocean tempuratures wouldn't this year produce more and stronger tropical cyclones worldwide? Perhaps other factors are more important than sea surface temperatures?

World in Hot Water as Ocean Temperatures Reach Record High

Thursday , August 20, 2009

WASHINGTON

July was the hottest month for the world's oceans in almost 130 years of record-keeping.

The average water temperature worldwide was 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit according to the National Climatic Data Center,...
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
864. MississippiWx
2:08 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Good morning, everyone. Just wanted to add that if this trof pattern continues in the Central and Eastern part of the US, it's going to be a very cold winter for this area of the US.

Combine that with Southern stream storm activity, which is typical of an El Nino season, and we could see multiple (???) snow events in the Southern US.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
863. KEHCharleston
2:05 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Morning Folks,
Hya Surfmom!!

Webcam Nova Scotia from Fenwick Tower in Halifax -



Credit Chebucto Community Net
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
862. surfmom
2:06 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
out for a morning paddle on the Lake of Mexico - water 80 degree's....
got to be ready for the next wave maker
*splash*
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
861. dipchip
2:04 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
So far the highest sustained wind at
Western Head NS is 27 MPH with gusts to 36.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/71411/2009/8/23/DailyHistory.html

For Halifax highest sustained wind is 25 with gusts to 35.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYHZ/2009/8/23/DailyHistory.html
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
860. surfmom
2:03 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting leftovers:
456 alot of surfers now on your island?

SURF FEEDBACK HURRICANE BILL(1 day ago)
HEARING that Rincon was amazing,
Isabella - 10ft plus outta control
Antonios & the Pools - north side puntas in Rincon - very good
Playa Linda - chest high clean long lines
today:
Daytona Sunday AM - head high good
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
859. TropicalBruce
2:00 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
With Bill out of the way except for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, it looks like there will be a quiet period in the tropics in the short term. That ULL near 25N and 57W is really doing a job on the t-wave approaching 50W. There should be no development with that t-wave for the next couple of days or so.

There appears to be some activity emerging off Africa, but that's happened umpty-umph times this year, mostly with no development, so it's just something to watch for now.
Member Since: May 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
858. Cavin Rawlins
1:59 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting leftovers:
456 alot of surfers now on your island?


no
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
857. surfmom
1:56 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting leftovers:
just got back from the beach the waves this morning before the tide came in were epic thank you bill wished you stayed longer. there are thousands of surfers surfing right now in cocoa bch.fl.8 mile stretch or so. that plus their families are alot of votes.


Just got a call from Coco Beach - (yes, I did fret a bit through the night) silly ME! the Horseman - ever the caring son - wanted me to know, it's calmed down plenty -- no overheads --looking to be at the chest......he's excited and even thanked me for making him wait the day -- seems yesterday was a washing machine - more close outs then rides..... today -- a guaranteed good time. They went w/ a guy (tennis pro) who has an "in" at the Coco beach Hilton - so they're on a less crowded stretch -- it's all good! Been on the water since daybreak..... Leftovers Glad you GOT EPIC!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
856. Cavin Rawlins
1:53 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Bills is becoming extratropical

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
855. wunderkidcayman
1:52 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
good morning everyone whats up in the tropics excluding bill today
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11166
854. engine112
1:47 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Good Morning a cool 56 degrees here this am in North Central Ohio. The much welcomed cold front that pushed bill out brought us some much needed cooler temps and overcast conditions. The high for today around 74, if it could only stay this way forever!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
853. yonzabam
1:42 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Bill's eyewall is now on the Nova Scotia coast.


Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2909
852. louisianaboy444
1:37 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
I got a low of 59 degrees tomorow morning here in North Louisiana that's good it will be my first morning of school it will get me in the fall mood
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
851. AllStar17
1:34 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Good morning. Remember, this trough is still not a sure thing.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
849. Cavin Rawlins
1:30 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting futuremet:
LOL!!! TWC sucks anyway




LOL to the highest degree
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
847. Cavin Rawlins
1:27 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Bill was the best storm since Bertha. barely affected land, and a hurricane's and surfer's lovers treat. I couldnt ask for a better track.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
846. LightningCharmer
1:26 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
844. futuremet 1:14 PM GMT on August 23, 2009

The Onion never ceases to dig deep and find the pressing issues of the day and beyond. Humanity is blessed to have them.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
845. lurkn4yrs
1:25 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Good morning everyone!

84 already this morning with a heat index of 91. Later its supposed to be 92 with 102heat index.. I guess beach or pool day for me.. Gotta love Miami beach weather...
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
844. futuremet
1:14 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
LOL!!! TWC sucks anyway

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
843. lawntonlookers
1:12 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Looks like it has been a slow blog now that Bill is heading out to sea.

NHC and the models did a great job on Bill, but again, all of the models were close as compared to some other cane models we have seen that look like a bowl of spaghetti.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
842. severstorm
1:11 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
morning all, I have 79.9 here in cfl. dont look like Ikes cooler weather will make it this far south. they say the front will wash out over nfl.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
841. CybrTeddy
12:58 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Its 76 degrees were I am with highs in the lower 90s.. I think Ikes the only one getting cooler weather.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23606
840. sporteguy03
12:57 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Fall???

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
415 am EDT sun Aug 23 2009

Wed-Sat...a deep east/NE flow will exist over the area through much of
the middle to late week as an easterly wave moves from the central
Atlantic into the Bahamas. Drier and more subsident air will exist
on the west side of this wave and over our area which will provide
for slightly below normal probability of precipitation around 30% on Wednesday and Thursday. Models
then have the wave developing into a closed low east of the Florida
Peninsula during Friday and then lift it north over the western
Atlantic. This will allow for some moisture return from the south
with rain chances increasing to more normal values Sat. No major
temperature changes expected with values remaining near normal
.

Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5171
839. WPBHurricane05
12:56 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting leftovers:
heard on the news some communityup in north was keeping the surfers out of the water. here in cocoa bch i doubt they would ever enforce that. too many surfers vote. what do you think? should communities have a strict prohibition against surfing?


Sounds kind of unconstitutional.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
838. 2ifbyC
12:53 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting leftovers:
should communities have a strict prohibition against surfing?


No. But a surfer should be billed for any search/rescue efforts expended for him/her.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
835. sfranz
12:39 PM GMT on August 23, 2009

Location storm total time/date comments
rainfall of
(inches) measurement


Massachusetts

... Bristol County...
Acushnet 2.91 615 am 8/23 spotter
New Bedford 2.45 625 am 8/23 ASOS since midnight

... Plymouth County...
Kingston 3.74 700 am 8/23 cocorahs
Pembroke 3.09 415 am 8/23 amateur radio
Marshfield 2.78 453 am 8/23 amateur radio
Scituate 2.76 415 am 8/23 amateur radio
Halifax 2.52 654 am 8/23 spotter

Plus one thought on the survey. This blog had recommendations from the good Dr. Masters for people to get out of New Orleans a day ahead of the NHC.

While they do awfully good work down at NHC, professionals checking that work and trying to understand these bad boys a bit better is useful too.
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
834. MissNadia
12:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Morning All

I doubt many in the water today!!!


Surf Forecast
Nantucket MA-
including the beaches of...Nantucket
336 am EDT sun Aug 23 2009

.Today...
South Coast rip current risk....high.
East Coast rip current risk.....High.
South Coast surf....8 to 12 feet.
East Coast surf.....7 to 11 feet.
Swell...............southeast swell 8 to 9 feet.
Period..............11 seconds.
South Coast water...67 degrees.
East Coast water....66 degrees.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. A chance of showers until 2 PM.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Beach winds.........West winds around 14 mph.
UVI index...........8 - very high.
Lightning threat....very infrequent lightning expected.

A high risk of rip currents means dangerous and potentially life
threatening conditions exist for all people entering the surf.

.Tonight...Cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 60s.
South winds around 9 mph.
.Monday...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 70s. West winds around 10 mph.
.Monday night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. West winds around
9 mph.

Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
833. Beachfoxx
12:31 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
I like the way the weather patters are looking! Keep kicking the storms away from landfall!

Good Morning!
Quoting IKE:
weather456...I agree. Looks like the next system is probably going to form off of the east coast of the USA.

ECMWF keeps it offshore and has it follow a path like Bill.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
832. stormlvr
12:28 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
A look at the models this morning continues to suggest development later this week off the SE Coast. Environmental conditions do look to improve as the wave progresses beyond 65W. The majority of models maintain energy in the northern portion of the wave and develop what is initially a more baroclinic low along the front and indicate an off shore track. While this is a viable scenario, it will be interesting to see if the purely tropical development is further south and more of a threat for landfall.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
831. Cavin Rawlins
12:26 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Good Morning again

Bill and the tropics
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
830. runnergirl1
12:19 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Yup.
THanks..I don't post questions during the "busy" time cause I don't have much to add to the blog but I appreciate your response one of these days info will stick with me and I won't have to ask anymore questions..lol
Member Since: August 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
829. KEHCharleston
12:19 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 66.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

Station 44258 - Halifax Harbour 44.5N 63.4W



Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
828. runnergirl1
12:18 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting beeleeva:
We could use a 64 degree day here in the Houston area....97 today with heat index over 103.....
I have already gotten acclimated to the cooler temps and low humidity up here in the northern tier..I couldn't imagine temps like that now..lol....but then again..winter is just around the corner so I'll get back to ya..
Member Since: August 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
827. IKE
12:16 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting runnergirl1:
nevermind just read the blog a trough of low pressure?..will kick it out?..did I understand that correctly?


Yup.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
826. beeleeva
12:15 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
We could use a 64 degree day here in the Houston area....97 today with heat index over 103.....
Member Since: July 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
825. runnergirl1
12:13 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
nevermind just read the blog a trough of low pressure?..will kick it out?..did I understand that correctly?
Member Since: August 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
824. KEHCharleston
12:12 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 66.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

Station 44024 - Buoy N - Northeast 42.3N 65.9



Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
823. runnergirl1
12:11 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Ok my knowledge is minimal at best concerning weather patterns..but is the reason the next storm that forms is most likely to follow bills path because of the high pressure dome sitting in the middle of the country?..orr???? what?
Member Since: August 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
822. futuremet
12:09 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting IKE:
weather456...I agree. Looks like the next system is probably going to form off of the east coast of the USA.

ECMWF keeps it offshore and has it follow a path like Bill.


Trough should kick it out.

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
821. IKE
12:08 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
weather456...I agree. Looks like the next system is probably going to form off of the east coast of the USA.

ECMWF keeps it offshore and has it follow a path like Bill.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.