Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next
The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.
Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Just got a call from Coco Beach - (yes, I did fret a bit through the night) silly ME! the Horseman - ever the caring son - wanted me to know, it's calmed down plenty -- no overheads --looking to be at the chest......he's excited and even thanked me for making him wait the day -- seems yesterday was a washing machine - more close outs then rides..... today -- a guaranteed good time. They went w/ a guy (tennis pro) who has an "in" at the Coco beach Hilton - so they're on a less crowded stretch -- it's all good! Been on the water since daybreak..... Leftovers Glad you GOT EPIC!
no
There appears to be some activity emerging off Africa, but that's happened umpty-umph times this year, mostly with no development, so it's just something to watch for now.
SURF FEEDBACK HURRICANE BILL(1 day ago)
HEARING that Rincon was amazing,
Isabella - 10ft plus outta control
Antonios & the Pools - north side puntas in Rincon - very good
Playa Linda - chest high clean long lines
today:
Daytona Sunday AM - head high good
Western Head NS is 27 MPH with gusts to 36.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/71411/2009/8/23/DailyHistory.html
For Halifax highest sustained wind is 25 with gusts to 35.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYHZ/2009/8/23/DailyHistory.html
got to be ready for the next wave maker
*splash*
Hya Surfmom!!
Webcam Nova Scotia from Fenwick Tower in Halifax -
Credit Chebucto Community Net
Combine that with Southern stream storm activity, which is typical of an El Nino season, and we could see multiple (???) snow events in the Southern US.
With these high ocean tempuratures wouldn't this year produce more and stronger tropical cyclones worldwide? Perhaps other factors are more important than sea surface temperatures?
World in Hot Water as Ocean Temperatures Reach Record High
Thursday , August 20, 2009
WASHINGTON
July was the hottest month for the world's oceans in almost 130 years of record-keeping.
The average water temperature worldwide was 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit according to the National Climatic Data Center,...
Thanks for the link. I hadn't heard about this. I'm not a met, but I've been reading avidly on the subject of global warming for a long time.
Most speculation has focussed on rising SSTs, but warmer water at depth is very important for maintaining hurricane strength and there's evidence this is getting warmer, too.
Wind shear is extremely important, too, and for the U.S. the strength of the Bermuda high.
Ill get to the topic of upcoming supposedly Danny in a mniute, but fist, I veiwed that video on the UTube FutureMet, and it suprises me that they accuse like that. The Weather Channel is supposed to talk about the weather thats why it says WEATHER forgive me if I am being blunt, but the coverage of the weather channel is perfect to me, the only problem is maybe they have to many commercials, but then a agin, all TV programs have them. And besides, Orion actes like its the end of the world, you listen to the guy back in the middle-end of the show, and he is acting like its a crisis. What does it take to make orion happy you think, prints, no music, no graphics, no seasoning in the channel? That sounds kind of dull. Besides, I like jazz and the graphics, I pay closer attention to the channel naturally. What do you think?
BIll looks great today!
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