Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bill is gone; Invest 92 pops up

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2009

Hurricane Bill is no more. The hurricane swept past Canada's Nova Scotia province Sunday afternoon, then made landfall early this morning in southeastern Newfoundland as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Bill's waves claimed two lives over the weekend, a 54-year old swimmer that drowned in Florida, and a 7-year old girl in Maine that got swept into the sea by a big wave. The first death of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season occurred on August 16, when a swimmer drowned in the rough surf from Tropical Storm Claudette at Pananma City Beach, FL.

Nova Scotia misses a direct hit
The center of Bill scooted parallel to the coast of Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon, and never quite came onshore. Since the storm's forward speed was so rapid--about 35 mph--this resulted in a highly asymmetric wind distribution. Since the top winds of a hurricane include the forward motion of the storm, Bill's top winds of 85 mph observed in the offshore, right front quadrant of the storm meant that the winds on the weak side of the storm, over Nova Scotia, were 85 mph minus 35 mph, or just 50 mph. Winds along most of the coast stayed below 39 mph, the borderline for tropical storm-force winds. The strongest winds measured in Canada were at Sable Island, which lies 150 miles offshore of Nova Scotia. Winds on the island hit 61 mph, gusting to 77 mph, between 4 - 5 pm ADT Sunday afternoon. A few islands along the Nova Scotia coast, such as Beaver Island and Hart Island, reported sustained winds of 39 - 40 mph. The big story for Nova Scotia was the waves from Bill. Buoy 44258 at the mouth of Halifax Harbor recorded significant wave heights of 29.5 feet and maximum wave heights of 49 feet as Bill passed 50 miles offshore. The buoy recorded top sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 51 mph. The waves combined with a 1.5 - 3 foot storm surge flooded many coastal roads. Buoy 44150, about 160 miles offshore of of the southwest tip of Nova Scotia, was in the east eyewall of Bill between 10 - 11 am ADT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with significant wave heights of 44 feet. The buoy recorded a maximum wave height of 87 feet, according to Environment Canada. The highest official rain report on Nova Scotia was 2.6" (65 mm) at Yarmouth. Rainfall cause some localized flooding and road damage. Bill's winds cut power to about 40,000 people at the height of the storm. At Peggys Cove, three men were hit by a giant wave but were not hurt. A gift shop and attached home in the village were swept off of their foundation.

Newfoundland gets hit, but damage is minor
The southeast corner of Newfoundland took a direct hit from Bill. The storm made landfall early this morning as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Top winds on the island were measured at Cape Race, which recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 76 mph, between 1:30 and 2:30 am NDT. A storm surge of 1.2 meters (4 feet) was estimated by Environment Canada for Placentia Bay where Bill made landfall. Damage was minor on Newfoundland, with no major flooding reported. Bill dumped up to three inches of rain on Newfoundland.

Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Bill on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. Photo credit: Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves in the eye of Bill
Flight Director Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center snapped a cool photo in the eye of Hurricane Bill on Friday, showing the existence of a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave (Figure 1). The photo was taken on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. The photo is taken looking WNW towards the eyewall. The towering clouds of the eyewall extend up to 50,000 - 55,000 feet in the photo, and the ocean surface is not visible, due to stratocumulus clouds covering the bottom of the eye. The center of the photo shows that the top of one of these stratocumulus clouds has a feature that looks like a breaking wave in the ocean. Well, that is an example of a breaking wave in the atmosphere known as a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave. The atmosphere behaves as a fluid, and thus has wave-like motions. When there is a sudden change of wind speed along the top of a cloud (wind shear), the flow can become unstable and cause breaking waves to form. One can see Kelvin-Helmholtz in the sky several times per year, and several alert wunderphotographers have uploaded photos of these waves over the years. However, it is uncommon to see these waves in the stratocumulus clouds covering the eye of a hurricane.

Figure 2. Water vapor satellite image for 8:15 am EDT 8/24/09. A tropical wave is approaching the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but is running into high wind shear from an upper-level cold low to the west of it. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Tropical wave approaching Lesser Antilles becomes Invest 92
A tropical wave with a moderate amount of shower activity is moving west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph and is approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave was designated "Invest 92" (92L) by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due the strong upper-level winds from the west. These winds are being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low north of Puerto Rico (Figure 2). This low is expected to move west-southwest and slowly weaken over the next two days, allowing shear to drop to the moderate 10 - 20 knot range beginning Tuesday night, according to the SHIPS model. By Wednesday, the upper low is predicted to be weak enough and far enough away from 92L that it will have a chance to develop. Most of the models show some degree of development of 92L by Thursday, when it is expected to be a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. This wave could turn northward and give a wet weekend to New England, though it is too early to be confident of this. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The upper-level low will create plenty of wind shear and dump cold, dry air into 92L over the next two days, so Wednesday is probably the earliest we can expect the system to begin organizing into a tropical depression.

Several models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Beach Wall wave 1 (BeachBecky)

Waves from Hurricane Bill crashing on the sea wall during high tide in Lynn, MA

Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9 (RIWXPhoto)

Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities (btangy)

Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities to the S of Boston. Wavy like pattern in clouds is caused by a difference in winds between the cloud layer and the layer just above (called wind shear). The manifestation of this at the top of the altostratus deck is quite a beautiful and rare sight!

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651. KarenRei 8:31 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting Floodman: Some of the models are calling for some development in that area soon; that msut be the energy they're calling for... Well, if it does develop, it's going to be a large one (diameter), judging from how large of an area is feeding into it. Shear looks low in the area. Needs a lot more convection, though. If convection flares up, I'd expect it to take off. Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 934

654. IKE 8:32 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting justalurker: dude this has been posted 3 times today..its gets old after a while. She's not a dude. $$ Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

656. rareaire 8:32 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
flood we good for a visit to the carolin--- oops! north or south carolina? Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1598

657. justalurker 8:33 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting StormChaser81: We dont deserve his bable, and crazy ideas. Quoting StormChaser81: We dont deserve his bable, and crazy ideas. ignoring his comments is one thing..but humiliating a human being is another..just move on bro. Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

658. hurricanejunky 8:35 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting LBAR: ULL is moving away...shear should be decreasing. I'm nervous for the SC coast...although a tropical storm dropping some rain wouldn't be a bad thing by any means. You're definitely sure it's going to the SC coast? Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2875

659. nrtiwlnvragn 8:34 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
TPC/TAFB 72 hour surface forecast. Additional +24 hrs position has 92L ~30N 73W on friday morning. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8935

660. justalurker 8:35 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting IKE: She's not a dude. $$ oops my mistake.. Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

661. AllStar17 8:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Lets wait until we get a well defined center to make track and intensity predictions. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

662. stormsurge39 8:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
This may be a dumb question, but if 92L gets as far as the central Bahamas, wont it hit land somewhere on the east coast from S Carolina on up, even with the trough?

663. reedzone 8:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Again 92L is nothing to worry about yet, once or IF it forms, that's when we need to watch it more. Although as it says in the Flhurricane site, there's basically a 50/50 chance of it heading out to sea. Really depends on the timing of the trough and the speed of the invest. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

664. Floodman 8:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting rareaire: flood we good for a visit to the carolin--- oops! north or south carolina? Yep...just takes the right set of circumstances Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

665. Greyelf 8:37 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting justalurker: hey guys, dont you think WS had enough humiliation for one day..give a guy a break. He may seem a little off the wall sometimes, but no one deserves this... I agree. While we all know that JFVWS tends to get to the annoying status pretty quick, we are also now getting the benefit of being annoyed in absentia by people who can't let go even when he's not here. C'mon people..at least wait until he's here to rag on him and enjoy the quiet when he's not. Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838

666. reedzone 8:38 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39: This may be a dumb question, but if 92L gets as far as the central Bahamas, wont it hit land somewhere on the east coast from S Carolina on up, even with the trough? Depends how strong the trough is, it could sharply recurve... Yet you could have a Floyd (1999) and recurve it long and slow up the coastline. It's just wayy to early to make assumptions right now, check back in a few days but most of all, check your local news station for the best coverage. :) Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

668. Alockwr21 8:39 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Seems like whenever a storm "rides" up the east coast, the OBX of NC are always effected somehow. Member Since: September 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 724

669. NEwxguy 8:39 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
((sigh)) we need a system before we can start projecting tracks,doesn't that make sense? Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13126

670. Dakster 8:39 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
I wonder where the models think 92L's center is... It's massive bunch of clouds, converging in towards each other. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

672. Dakster 8:40 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting Alockwr21: Seems like whenever a storm "rides" up the east coast, the OBX of NC are always effected somehow. Of course it has nothing to do with how the coast is shaped and that OBX is kind of sticking istelf out to the east... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

673. reedzone 8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy: ((sigh)) we need a system before we can start projecting tracks,doesn't that make sense? Yep, plus this invest is really getting sheared right now. Until that upper level low moves out of the way, no development at all. I was actually surprised to see an orange code then a yellow one. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

674. litestar 8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Please no lighting...I look bad in black...

675. fmbill 8:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy: ((sigh)) we need a system before we can start projecting tracks,doesn't that make sense? I guess for me, these "quick-trigger" systems tend to keep us on our toes in emergency management. Being in the Cntral Florida area, we're kind of forced to ask "what-if" a lot. Mostly because the ramp-up of operations is based on 3-day notifications. BTW...afternoon, all! Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 365

676. hurricanejunky 8:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39: Why does Nogaps have it going so far west? NoGaps is a wishcaster! Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2875

677. IKE 8:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 254 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... STRANGE SUMMER CONTINUES AS WE ARE DEALING WITH PLEASANT WEATHER INSTEAD OF THE TYPICAL LATE AUGUST HEAT AND HUMIDITY. FOR NOW AND THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW NORMAL AND THE HUMIDITY VALUES ON THE RISE...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONLY MONKEY IN THE WRENCH IS THE FAINT REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF HUGGING THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WHILE THE BULK OF THE TROF AXIS EXITS STAGE RIGHT...THE SOUTHERN MOST TIP ACTUALLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE A VERY MESSY FORECAST AS THIS REMNANT LOW BECOMES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW BY TOMORROW AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS WESTWARD PATH. THIS MAY SEEM TO BE A SMALL DETAIL...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY A MAJOR ROLE AS WEATHER MAKER BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS LOW PULLS JUST TO OUR WEST IT WILL ACT TO CREATE A HEIGHT FALLS SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PULL ATLANTIC AND GULF AIR BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IT WILL HAVE A RATHER STRANGE LOOK AS THE POSITION OF THIS LOW WILL PULL MOISTURE AND STORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SO WILL HAVE THE UNUSUAL SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWESTERLY STORM TRACK. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A FORECAST BUSTER...EVEN AS I TYPE SHOWERS ARE FORMING ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AS AN ALMOST WEDGE FRONT INDUCED LINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS A BIT COMPLEX THINGS TREND MORE TOWARDS THE 2009 SUMMER AS YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE RECORD LOWS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. NORMALLY...I WOULD NOT BITE ON THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS SUMMER ONE COULD AND SHOULD EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

678. stormsurge39 8:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Why do forcasters start using forcast tracks now, when it isnt developed yet? I know theres a reason, but it seems to cause alot of confusion on this blog.

679. bingcrosby 8:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
According to the SHIPS model, Danny will be born in 3-5 days. Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 137

680. canesrule1 8:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
92L looking like a disorganized area of thunderstorms flared up by an upper level low, hold on that is what it is, if any development where to happen it will probably take more than 72 hours, imo. -CanesRule1.

681. sctonya 8:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting reedzone: Yep, plus this invest is really getting sheared right now. Until that upper level low moves out of the way, no development at all. I was actually surprised to see an orange code then a yellow one. It is still Orange on the NHC site.

682. fmbill 8:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
18z NAM 78-hour Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 365

683. justalurker 8:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39: Why do forcasters start using forcast tracks now, when it isnt developed yet? I know theres a reason, but it seems to cause alot of confusion on this blog. great question..i would like to know myself!! Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

684. IKE 8:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Mobile,AL. extended.... "LONG TERM...(THURSDAY ON)THURSDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KICK THE LOWER MISS RIVER SYSTEM THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS SET UP OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY BY THIS TIME. GFS IS ADVERTISING A GAP IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND AS THIS SECOND ROUND OF UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES THE AREA...DRAGGING A FRONT WITH...WHICH IS BEING ADVERTISED MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE FA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

685. canesrule1 8:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky: NoGaps is a wishcaster! might be a wishcaster but that is the god of all models for the NHC.

686. reedzone 8:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting sctonya: It is still Orange on the NHC site. I know, I was just surprised they put higher chances on it. Though I guess with all the model support... Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

688. Tazmanian 8:47 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
we have a new TD in the E PAC TD 12E Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354

689. rwdobson 8:48 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Fireman bill, yeah, i can see how that would strain Em Ops, the potential of a system forming right offshore...luckily if you get that little warning, it's probably a weak system, but still... Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1574

690. AllStar17 8:48 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting reedzone: I know, I was just surprised they put higher chances on it. Though I guess with all the model support... ....and lessening that shear. That ULL will move to the southwest and weaken, giving 92L favorable conditions to develop in. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

691. Floodman 8:48 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39: Why do forcasters start using forcast tracks now, when it isnt developed yet? I know theres a reason, but it seems to cause alot of confusion on this blog. Because they're the best way they have to predict future movements, but again, weak, "low" storms don't forecast very well; once they acheive hurricane status forecasting becomes considerably easier and more acurate Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

692. Dakster 8:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Ike - I wish the Heat and Humidity comment was applicable to steaming, burning, South Florida... It rains and steam rises from the pavement. Please send the cold front down here... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

693. IKE 8:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
From the NO,LA afternoon discussion.... AS FOR THE TROPICS...NHC HAS INCLUDED A WAVE WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY AGREES THAT THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO FORCE THIS SYSTEM TO RECURVE BEFORE AFFECTING THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

694. clwstmchasr 8:52 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
WHILE THIS SEEMS A BIT COMPLEX THINGS TREND MORE TOWARDS THE 2009 SUMMER AS YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE RECORD LOWS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. NORMALLY...I WOULD NOT BITE ON THIS SCENARIO. That is the story of the summer. With this scenario, the east coast of FL. is pretty well protected. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755

695. largeeyes 8:50 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
NO, LA NWS seems to be stepping a bit outside their area of expertise there IKE. Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381

696. IKE 8:51 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting Dakster: Ike - I wish the Heat and Humidity comment was applicable to steaming, burning, South Florida... It rains and steam rises from the pavement. Please send the cold front down here... It's nice up here. I've got 83 degrees outside. Tonight Partly cloudy. Lows around 59. Light winds. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

698. reedzone 8:51 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Again, it's just too early to make a confident forecast. things can change in a few days, or the track may change. We just don't know yet, we do have some small hints of recurvature. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

699. futuremet 8:52 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
AS FOR THE TROPICS...NHC HAS INCLUDED A WAVE WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY AGREES THAT THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO FORCE THIS SYSTEM TO RECURVE BEFORE AFFECTING THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. A bit overconfident there... Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

700. klaatuborada 8:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Hi! Rit on Cape Cod. I'm so looking forward to this heavy humidity clearing out of here. It looks like we have 2 more days of it, then 2 nice days, and then Invest 92. Looks like we're on the track for these developing storms this year. Here's hoping this blows out to sea as well. Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 380

701. clwstmchasr 8:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
All Model Guidance? Don't think that is a true statement. Most have it on the coast of NC They are correct. Most model guidance does keep it well of the NC coast. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755

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