Tropical Storm Danny not impressive yet
Tropical Storm Danny is here, born from an African tropical wave that developed a closed circulation and some respectable heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. Data between 2 - 3 pm EDT from the Hurricane Hunters indicates the Danny has a central pressure of 1009 mb, and top surface winds of about 45 mph. Satellite imagery shows that Danny's circulation has gotten stretched and pulled away from the heaviest thunderstorm activity on the storm's east side. It is possible that Danny's center will reform at a different location, closer to the heaviest thunderstorms, so the model forecasts probably have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual at present. Wind shear has dropped to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. The upper-level low Danny is moving underneath has plenty of dry air in it, and this dry air is intruding into Danny's west side, keeping and heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on that side.
Figure 1. Oceanic heat content for August 25, 2009. Regions where the Sea Surface Temperature is below 80°F, or where the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf lie, do not have enough heat content to be plotted, and are shown in white colors. The oceanic heat content along the track of Tropical Storm Danny is below the threshold of 90 kJ/cm^2 typically seen with cases of rapid intensification. The storm position at 8am EDT today is given by the hurricane symbol with the "0" inside it. Subsequent hurricane symbols show the official NHC forecast points from the 11 am EDT forecast today, for 8am Thursday (24 hours), 8am Friday (48 hours), 8am Saturday (72 hours), and 8am Sunday (72 hours). The cold waters stirred up by Hurricane Bill last week will not impact Tropical Storm Danny. Image credit: RSMAS, University of Miami.
The forecast for Danny
As Danny continues to plow through the upper low, the low will weaken, but will dump dry air into the storm through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when Danny should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that Danny will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. Ocean heat content (Figure 1) is high enough to support a hurricane, until Danny gets to about New Jersey's latitude. Most of the intensity models, including the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS model, forecast that Danny will become a hurricane by Friday. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn Danny to the north, then northeast on Saturday. The models have come into better agreement keeping Danny offshore as it passes North Carolina, though the storm is certainly capable of giving the Outer Banks a direct hit. As Danny passes North Carolina, it should start heading north-northeast, with a landfall likely Saturday afternoon or evening somewhere between Massachusetts and Nova Scotia. At that time, Danny is likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, with winds in the 55 - 80 mph range. The latest runs of the GFDL and GFS model have Danny tracking directly over Martha's Vineyard, where President Obama is on vacation. It will be interesting to see if the president stays on the island for Danny.
For those of you wondering about specific probabilities of getting tropical storm force or hurricane force winds, consult the NHC Wind Probability Product.
Figure 2. Tropical wave newly emerged from the coast of Africa, with some potential for development.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A well-organized tropical wave has exited the coast of Africa, and lies a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands. None of the models are gung-ho about developing this wave, but shear is low, 10 knots, and waters are warm enough to support development. The dry Saharan Air Layer is relatively limited in extent and intensity, so dry air may have only a small inhibiting effect on the wave. Expect some slow development of this wave as it moves westward over the next few days. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon.
I'll have an update Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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mine has spell check......
lol no i just looked it up. its CONtinental US, 48 states. What a dumb term because obviously a TS in the atlantic will not hit alaska or hawaii. Just say US.
nope
Danny looks sick, maybe if it looked better =P
that is what I was thinking
Thats the beauty of firefox
Ha ha ha....i was going to say the same thing.
It is odd. In june the blog clogged up all because of a sickly invest that had a yellow circle in unfavorable conditions. 93L I believe it was.
lol
CONUS
CONUS is a technical term used by the U.S. Military which is specifically defined as the 48 contiguous states, but is silent on the District of Columbia.[5]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contiguous_United_States
And it is CONTIGUOUS, as in the states that all touch each other, so Florida is definitely one. Alaska, Hawaii, PR, Guam, are not part of CONUS.
a troll is someone who posts controversial, inflammatory, irrelevant or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room or blog, with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional or disciplinary response[1] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion which at the moment you could be doing
Hope your son gets better real soon!!!
Have a good evening, Storm.
I don't know. When claudette made landfall on the FL panhandle this blog wasn't clogged. I could be wrong but not sure.
well our wave in the e atl has a near complete llc but I see your point on the close to land part.
The keys are joined by bridges. Does this mean that they are not included in the conus??
In the middle of the night our RH is near 100% in SE LA...almost every night. You don't get dew where you live?
This is according to the latest NOAA recon plane which shows a wind shift from wsw to ene as the plane traveled from 26.3 n 70.2 w to 26.7 n 70.8w.
oh my haha
Maybe. Conditions way down the road appear favorable for a hurricane to make landfall on the CONUS. Oops was it wrong to say conus. LOL.
Praying all get well soon!
Looks pretty robust!
Someone said it well earlier. Most people are here to learn and understand. Let's not allow the REAL trolls to cause us to mistreat others with a genuine interest.
LOL LOL. I almost fell out of my chair that is so funny.
youre fine, really, just some people act like they know everything and put people down when they ask "silly" questions. i ask everyone on here to please have some patience. this blog is a great place to learn a lot of fascinating things about weather, and more specifically, the tropics. we all should be willing to answer questions to the best of our ability and in a pleasant manner. sorry if it seems like i am ranting, but i just get tired of people putting others down because of their questions, regardless of how stupid a question may seem.
thanks,
-Matt
thanks for sharing...
Just keep asking questions. Sometimes it may take asking them more than once. But if someone wants to ridicule you then they have the maturity issues not you. I found I was able to Google a lot of meteorological info too, including abbreviations. Just keep learning :o)
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