Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Adieu to Danny

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L

Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

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2001. winter123 7:45 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
half the models plow jimena into mexico. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

2003. IpswichWeatherCenter 8:05 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted? Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097

2004. yonzabam 8:13 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter: Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted? Don't watch the Pacific much, but Jimena is headed for cat 4 status and may skim along the S. Baja coast. Just as well it's not densely populated like the northern part of it. I noted some days ago that sea temperatures in some parts of the far east Pacific are an incredible 5C above normal, presumably due to El Nino. Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1711

2005. ChrisCone 8:16 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
94L looks pretty weak now, looks like that means a more westerly track for the meantime. Not looking good

2006. ChrisCone 8:36 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter: Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted? the possibilities in the weather are endless

2007. yonzabam 9:21 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
94L back to orange again ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 515 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. 1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1711

2008. HadesGodWyvern 9:25 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7 SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009) 9:00 AM UTC August 29 2009 ============================= SUBJECT: Interest in Western Mexico and the southern Baja California should monitor the progress of "Jimena" At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Jimena (965 hPa) located at 16.0N 105.7W or 265 NM south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico has sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots. Hurricane-Force Winds ====================== 20 NM from the center Gale/Storm-Force Winds ======================== 60 NM from the center Forecast and Intensity ===================== 12 HRS: 16.8N 106.8W - 110 kts (SSHS-3 Cyclone) 24 HRS: 17.9N 107.9W - 125 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone) 48 HRS: 20.9N 110.0W - 120 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone) 72 HRS: 24.5N 111.9W - 100 kts (SSHS-3 Cyclone) Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

2009. HadesGodWyvern 9:25 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4 TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN (EP142009) 9:00 AM UTC August 30 2009 ============================= At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kevin (1000 hPa) located at 14.1N 121.9W or 865 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots. Gale-Force Winds ================ 55 NM from the center Forecast and Intensity ===================== 12 HRS: 14.7N 121.9W - 50 kts (Tropical Storm) 24 HRS: 15.5N 121.4W - 50 kts (Tropical Storm) 48 HRS: 16.9N 120.2W - 40 kts (Tropical Storm) 72 HRS: 18.3N 119.1W - 40 kts (Tropical Storm) Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

2010. HadesGodWyvern 9:26 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Disturbance Summary TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15:00 PM JST August 30 2009 ========================================= At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression "CP022009" (1006 hPa) located at 15.0N 178.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west at 15 knots. --- Poor cyclone is struggling now Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

2011. markymark1973 9:30 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
The latest models ran on 94L are on crack :) GFS especially. You can throw those all out.

2012. ackee 9:33 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
see 94L now has medium chance of develop can someone show centre of 94L seem like trying to come under the convection Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

2013. 789 9:43 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting markymark1973: The latest models ran on 94L are on crack :) GFS especially. You can throw those all out. is it going fish then Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 255

2014. yonzabam 9:43 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
I don't think many on here are interested in tropical depressions in the western Pacific, but if you just like cutting and pasting for the hell of it . . . . Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1711

2015. 789 9:49 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
those are the two runs ,those will be thrown out ,start all over Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 255

2016. Cavin Rawlins 9:52 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Good morning, the difference a day makes Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2017. hunkerdown 9:55 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
new blog Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

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