Adieu to Danny

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L
Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

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1117. flsky
Quoting Patrap:



Amen,,.. and thanks for remembering 8-29-05



Please remember Mississippi and Alabama, as well. They seem to get pushed to the rear often. They suffered, too. Thanks.
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Troughs will be our enemy in October, because SW Caribbean is where most tropical cyclones tend to develop from. Fortunately, the CFS is expecting a prolonged ridging pattern...for now.
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1115. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
Good evening, Jimena went through rapid intensification, as predicted.
Loop
94L not looking like much since this a.m.
Link


Downcaster!***sarcasm***
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LOL..no entiendo nada que habla..pero quizas habla in una lengua muy extrana

I don't understand what you say, but maybe you speak in a strange language.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7935
you can see cozumel in the eye
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Quoting JamesSA:


Yep. Same latitude as 3 days ago. XTRP wins the model competition!
Up until 2 days ago, XTRP would have carried the storm under 10N. From 3 days ago the "winner" would probably be a median blend of XTRP and the actual models.
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I congratulate storm w on his opinions anyone can read the nhc analysis and follow the models, but I think especially with these weak systems it is fun to conjecture.Like he said we only learn from making prognostications and then learn from our mistakes. To say this system has no chance to enter the Caribbean is nonsense. Now saying that due to shear that maybe the best possible scenario.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
ohhh ok ;) thanks stormwatcherCI
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Good evening, Jimena went through rapid intensification, as predicted.
Loop
94L not looking like much since this a.m.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He said he doesn't understand Taz because he speaks a strange language.



oh ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
wilma at its strongest- left, wilma a couple of days after peek intensity- right

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Quoting fldude99:


Habla ingles por favor



????
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1101. IKE
Water vapor of the CATL....

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Quoting TriniGirl26:
1090. fldude99 11:05 PM GMT on August 29, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
will where geting in too SEP and seens like too me that will things will start too shut down some out the all evere we will see more name storms in the E PAC in SEP



LOL..no entiendo nada que habla..pero quizas habla in una lengua muy extrana
Action: Quote | Ignore User


I am sorry mi amigos, i took spanish for
5 years and i still don't understand what u just said.
He said he doesn't understand Taz because he speaks a strange language.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
Quoting Tazmanian:




????


Habla ingles por favor
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1090. fldude99 11:05 PM GMT on August 29, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
will where geting in too SEP and seens like too me that will things will start too shut down some out the all evere we will see more name storms in the E PAC in SEP



LOL..no entiendo nada que habla..pero quizas habla in una lengua muy extrana
Action: Quote | Ignore User


I am sorry mi amigos, i took spanish for
5 years and i still don't understand what u just said.
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Quoting fldude99:


LOL..no entiendo nada que habla..pero quizas habla in una lengua muy extrana
Quizá inglés no es su lengua materna y ninguna necesidad de hacer la diversión.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
1096. IKE
1092....you put someone on ignore for that?
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1095. Relix
Quoting jurakantaino:
Really? hope not im at 18N 66W.


Me too =P. My eyes are set on it =D
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
Quoting btwntx08:

#37 goodbye


Exqueeze me?
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Quoting fldude99:


LOL..no entiendo nada que habla..pero quizas habla in una lengua muy extrana




????
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting Tazmanian:
will where geting in too SEP and seens like too me that will things will start too shut down some out the all evere we will see more name storms in the E PAC in SEP


LOL..no entiendo nada que habla..pero quizas habla in una lengua muy extrana
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Troughs are not Gods. They can protect you from storms like Bill but they cant if Grace develops in the NW Caribbean and slams into Floirda becuz of that very same trough, ie. Wilma 2005.
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1088. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Turn what ? The low known as 94L that you ripped this am ? Just as fast a s that changed so can steering etc. imo


As fast as what changed? Me saying next? I'll say it again...next!
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will where geting in too SEP and seens like too me that will things will start too shut down some out the all evere we will see more name storms in the E PAC in SEP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting JamesSA:
Ok, throw out the models for a moment. StormW just have us his opinion WNW-ish for the next 48 - 72 hours based on his expert analysis of steering models.

Lets do the arithmetic... at the last reported 16mph speed, that would be 1152 miles in 72 hours. Where would 1152 miles on a WNW-ish track put it in 72 hours?
On top of me, well Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island.
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Quoting futuremet:
It looks like the ridging pattern will establish at the east coast. The ECMWF is expecting the ridge to establish by next week. Reasonably, it takes 94L westward along the southern axis.




Guess we will have to see. EURO has been the best model so far for 2009. It nailed Bill as well with the early recurve.
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1084. JamesSA
Quoting StormW:


I have to leave...but that would b almost 19-20 degrees movement on a 290-295 course


Just using my eyeballs that would place it right in the middle of the Antilles well south of Puerto Rico. Islanders better hope it stays weak and is just some needed rain.

Thanks for coming by and sharing your thoughts.
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in the E pac

we had 13 name storms wish hafe of them where in AUG 5 hurricanes and 2 cat 3 or higher hurricanes
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting extreme236:


Too much troughing for this to hit the US at this time, thats a fact you can prove.


Yup...too much troughing. The longer 94L it takes, the more it has a chance to move west, as a ridging pattern sets in.
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Oh ok Taz, that makes sense now. 94L probably has an anticyclone over it according to the cirrus patterns around it.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3947
Quoting kmanislander:


The same as it was this time yesterday; into the Caribbean near 16N.
Really? hope not im at 18N 66W.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Turn what ? The low known as 94L that you ripped this am ? Just as fast a s that changed so can steering etc. imo


Too much troughing for this to hit the US at this time, thats a fact you can prove.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting Tazmanian:
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...RESULTING IN DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND 1800 UTC. BASED ON
THIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO KEVIN WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KT. KEVIN IS THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM TO FORM THIS MONTH IN
THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN...THE MOST IN AUGUST SINCE 1968 AND THE MOST
IN ANY MONTH SINCE 1985.

Yep... E Pacific gets all the action in El Nino years. We get zzzzzzzz
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Quoting stormpetrol:

What good luck that would be, especially if all it became was good rainmaker, the heat and dryness is overwhelming here in The Caymans, we need rainreal bad.


i hear u stormpetrol, Trinidad needs it too. i swear the heat index went up to 40 degrees celsius.
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Well..going out on a limb..I'm not met..but this season is hopefully the dud it was touted to be a couple months ago. After going thru Ivan 5 yrs ago and Dennis 4 yrs ago, I just don't have that "feeling" that we're gonna get hit. I know its unpredictable, but in another 3 weeks the NW FL panhandle at least should be able to breathe easy
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It looks like the ridging pattern will establish at the east coast. The ECMWF is expecting the ridge to establish by next week. Reasonably, it takes 94L westward along the southern axis.



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its gonna go through the box i like the cmc thinking. to much like frances and labor day is coming.
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Quoting IKE:


It's not going in the Caribbean. You can tell by looking at water vapor and reading the tropical weather discussion("AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
29N47W AND WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE SW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 55W-64W.")

I don't think this ever amounts to anything with anybody in the US. Too many troughs and weaknesses that will eventually turn it.
Turn what ? The low known as 94L that you ripped this am ? Just as fast a s that changed so can steering etc. imo
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...RESULTING IN DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND 1800 UTC. BASED ON
THIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO KEVIN WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KT. KEVIN IS THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM TO FORM THIS MONTH IN
THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN...THE MOST IN AUGUST SINCE 1968 AND THE MOST
IN ANY MONTH SINCE 1985.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


They did an 11am EDT update with Jimena.



that was the 11am two that they did

but it was not for jimena they olny do updates for him at 2pm and 8pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1070. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:

What good luck that would be, especially if all it became was good rainmaker, the heat and dryness is overwhelming here in The Caymans, we need rainreal bad.
we need the rain too here in jamaica
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
No 5pm advisory?

What's there to advise?
Sure, there is Jimena and Kevin, but their next advisory is at 8pm along with 94L's update.
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Quoting IKE:


It's not going in the Caribbean. You can tell by looking at water vapor and reading the tropical weather discussion("AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
29N47W AND WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE SW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 55W-64W.")

I don't think this ever amounts to anything with anybody in the US. Too many troughs and weaknesses that will eventually turn it.

It is possible if it stays real weak it just might have a shot towards the Caribbean. I don't think it has a chance also. Way too much going on out there to make it to the US. IMO 94L will probably only make it to TD status. The wave about to come off Africa has alot better cyclonic turning like Bill had. It has a better chance. I still think it will be sheared apart in the mid levels just like 94L. Those easterlies are strong this year.
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Outflow is tremendous, yes with 94L. One can see looking at the last few visible satellite that cirrus outflow is expanding in all quadrants. That is pretty remarkable given that there is really no evident CDO feature present with convection developing over the southern circulation region. It has a large envelope evident by this expanding outward cirrus clouds.


hmm, circles of 5-10 knts of shear over 94L on the shear map, outflow of cirrus clouds without CDO, could there be an anti-cyclone over it?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.