Adieu to Danny

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L
Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Outflow is tremendous, yes with 94L. One can see looking at the last few visible satellite that cirrus outflow is expanding in all quadrants. That is pretty remarkable given that there is really no evident CDO feature present with convection developing over the southern circulation region. It has a large envelope evident by this expanding outward cirrus clouds.


hmm, circles of 5-10 knts of shear over 94L on the shear map, outflow of cirrus clouds without CDO, could there be an anti-cyclone over it?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not for the E the pac they olny do 2pm and 8pm updates on E pac storms


They did an 11am EDT update with Jimena.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3947
Quoting ackee:
I think 94L will move in the carrb and fall apart

What good luck that would be, especially if all it became was good rainmaker, the heat and dryness is overwhelming here in The Caymans, we need rainreal bad.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7932
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
No 5pm advisory?



not for the E the pac they olny do 2pm and 8pm updates on E pac storms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Self-removed image cuz it looks like my link swamped the originating site
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1060. Dakster
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
No 5pm advisory?


There is nothing to advise on... When/IF 94 developes they will beign advisories. Until then the updates are at 2am/pm and 8 am/pm.

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No 5pm advisory?
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1058. ackee
I think 94L will move in the carrb and fall apart
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1373
Quoting kmanislander:
But today is Saturday which means time to fire up the grill to smoke a couple of rib eyes YUM !

Will be back later

Making me hungry :), Enjoy the ribs Kman.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7932
1056. IKE
Quoting markymark1973:

If it does develop and go into the Caribbean it's toast. Hostile environment with alot of high shear and dry air. If it goes north of the islands towards Bahamas it will likely be swept out to sea. Troughs are really digging far south now. I don't see 94L being a major issue. Models were never excited with this invest to begin with. Maybe i'll be eating crow:)


It's not going in the Caribbean. You can tell by looking at water vapor and reading the tropical weather discussion("AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
29N47W AND WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE SW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 55W-64W.")

I don't think this ever amounts to anything with anybody in the US. Too many troughs and weaknesses that will eventually turn it.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The 24, 48 and 72 hr surface forecasts were issued around 1700. The map I just posted came out at 20:42


So they changed their thinking in the span of 3-4 hours.
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1054. JamesSA
Ok, throw out the models for a moment. StormW just have us his opinion WNW-ish for the next 48 - 72 hours based on his expert analysis of steering models.

Lets do the arithmetic... at the last reported 16mph speed, that would be 1152 miles in 72 hours. Where would 1152 miles on a WNW-ish track put it in 72 hours?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I noticed that and it must be a recent change (last few hours). The same analyst that did the current surface forecast also did the 24 hour surface forecast. They show different positions.


The 24, 48 and 72 hr surface forecasts were issued around 1700. The map I just posted came out at 20:42
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Quoting kmanislander:
But today is Saturday which means time to fire up the grill to smoke a couple of rib eyes YUM !

Will be back later
Sounds good !
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8394
Outflow is tremendous, yes with 94L. One can see looking at the last few visible satellite that cirrus outflow is expanding in all quadrants. That is pretty remarkable given that there is really no evident CDO feature present with convection developing over the southern circulation region. It has a large envelope evident by this expanding outward cirrus clouds.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3947
But today is Saturday which means time to fire up the grill to smoke a couple of rib eyes YUM !

Will be back later
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Quoting kmanislander:
Looks like the thinking on the track of 94L is starting to change

Link


I noticed that and it must be a recent change (last few hours). The same analyst that did the current surface forecast also did the 24 hour surface forecast. They show different positions.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The same as it was this time yesterday; into the Caribbean near 16N.
My thinking also. I just don't see it going too far north as it is still tracking basically west.. Don't know if it will develop but if it does I still think Caribbean storm. Maybe not the whole way across but although conditions might not be favorable for that right now by the time it reaches a little further west a lot can change.
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low shear but quite a bit of dry air
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks for that.

If conditions in the carribean change and become conducive for development, god help us.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
I can't believe how bad the models are doing on 94L. I probably would do better then them.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What is your thinking sir ?


The same as it was this time yesterday; into the Caribbean near 16N.
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Quoting StormW:
Thanks 1021 and 1023.

I have to go....but wanted to mention one thing...it's funny how there are folks that when the models are predicting cyclogenesis more than 72 hours out, they have a tendency to discount it...butwhen it comes to model guidance, they're ready to jump on "fish"...even with the screwed up model consensus as it is. That's why for steering, I never go by model guidance...it's better to go by the steering layers maps, then determine whichmodel has the best track..whic at the moment happens to be none.
Thanks for that.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8394
Quoting mobilegirl81:

Hey stormW. Looks like conditions are not very conducive in the carribean.
Quoting mobilegirl81:

Hey stormW. Looks like conditions are not very conducive in the carribean.

If it does develop and go into the Caribbean it's toast. Hostile environment with alot of high shear and dry air will be waiting for it. If it goes north of the islands towards Bahamas it will likely be swept out to sea. Troughs are really digging far south now. I don't see 94L being a major issue. Models were never excited with this invest to begin with. Maybe i'll be eating crow:)
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Quoting kmanislander:
Looks like the thinking on the track of 94L is starting to change

Link
What is your thinking sir ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8394
One thing is the carribean is hot hot hot hot.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

If it becomes a powerful system(only my speculation) it can mostly the bust the negative forces against it in the Caribbean, jmo.

Agree. We have seen them do that to. Kind of defy the forecasts which is the NHC's biggest challenge, intensity.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
1035. Relix
In 24 hours I see 94L as a Tropical Depression, borderline Tropical Storm. It's then, with upper level conditions more favorable, that it could strengthen further. Interesting system to track!!!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
Looks like the thinking on the track of 94L is starting to change

Link
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Member's Profile

Go here stormwatcherCI
Thanks a lot.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8394
that quikscat is not from 19:45. it's from 09:07 which was 3:07am edt. this morning.

the ascending pass is in the early morning and descending pass is late afternoon to early evening.

it only makes 2 passes a day.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

Hey stormW. Looks like conditions are not very conducive in the carribean.

If it becomes a powerful system(only my speculation) it can mostly the bust the negative forces against it in the Caribbean, jmo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7932
Quoting TriniGirl26:


well if it goes West i might get some rain for my plants but i am hoping for C but i think the answer is B
I believe the answer is "B"! But I've eaten crow on Danny though :)!
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1027. Relix


Red Line represents model consensus. Blue line represents if it just turned NW. Green represents a mix of what the models predict along the current movement I expect. I shaded in red the danger area... though its not as noticeable (working on that), but I will say the Antilles are on the line of fire. Will work more on my... "track forecasts".
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
Quoting StormW:
If the updated steering layers forecast is right...don't even look for NW during the next 48 hours, possibly 72. Should be more WNW about 290-295.

Hey stormW. Looks like conditions are not very conducive in the carribean.
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1024. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Member's Profile

Go here stormwatcherCI
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Quoting StormW:
If the updated steering layers forecast is right...don't even look for NW during the next 48 hours, possibly 72. Should be more WNW about 290-295.


right on
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting StormW:
Just stopping by real quick. Won't be back on until tomorrow afternoon.

So much for model guidance on 94L. CIRA had the 1800Z position at 10.6N;42.0W.

StormW you the man, at least you tell it like you see it!
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Quoting ackee:
quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW

A west
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
How come I click the filter on show all and it keeps going back to show average ? Can someone tell me what to do please.


Go to your blog page and on the right hand side select "Modify My Profile". Under that you can set the default filter level.
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One of the largest forecast errors I have ever seen, just by looking at the orientation of the models and 94L's past track.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.