Adieu to Danny

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L
Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

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Quoting jipmg:


Its moving north of due west, It might head into the carribean, who knows
12 GMT 08/27/09 10.5N 25.6W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 08/27/09 10.7N 27.0W 25 1009 Invest
06 GMT 08/28/09 10.2N 32.0W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 08/28/09 10.5N 36.0W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/28/09 11.0N 36.0W 25 1010 Invest
00 GMT 08/29/09 11.3N 37.9W 25 1010 Invest
06 GMT 08/29/09 11.1N 40.0W 25 1010 Invest
12 GMT 08/29/09 11.1N 41.2W 25 1010 Invest
18 GMT 08/29/09 10.6N 42.0W 25 1010 Invest

How do you get N of due west please ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Quoting centex:
The wave or maybe eventually TD is going into carribean. Little confused why not hearing this from experts.


That's what I was saying from yesterday afternoon but was very much in the minority. We will know soon enough but it is closing in on 50W quite quickly and would need a strong trough to pull it up from where it is now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
All of the dynamic models take the system just north of the islands or further north.
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711. jipmg
Quoting centex:
The wave or maybe eventually TD is going into carribean. Little confused why not hearing this from experts.


Its moving north of due west, It might head into the carribean, who knows
Shear looks to be retreating ahead of 94L but is in the 20 knot range a little downstream.

So far it is doing well for the heat of the day and compared to how it looked a few hours ago a marked improvement.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
12z ECMWF...

ECMWF
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceman55:
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0


If you notice thats the highest number its gotten so far.
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706. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KROVAHN (T0911)
3:00 AM JST August 30 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near Ogasawara Shoto

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Krovahn (985 hPa) located at 29.9N 144.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 18 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale-Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 32.7N 140.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 38.4N 142.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 44.3N 150.1E - EXTRATROPICAL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wave or maybe eventually TD is going into carribean. Little confused why not hearing this from experts.
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704. JLPR
Quoting kmanislander:


Frankly, I hardly ever pay attention to the models when dealing with a weak system trying to develop. They tend to be more wrong than right IMO


yep your right =]
I tend to look at them since they give a general idea of where it could head but with 94L they have no idea

ok now im off xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
702. jipmg
Quoting kmanislander:


Frankly, I hardly ever pay attention to the models when dealing with a weak system trying to develop. They tend to be more wrong than right IMO


so true
701. JLPR
well im off
I will come back and have another look at 8pm

....later =]
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting JLPR:
well there goes the models lol xD
they are all too far north even the southern consensus

94L is ignoring them and heading west


Frankly, I hardly ever pay attention to the models when dealing with a weak system trying to develop. They tend to be more wrong than right IMO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
699. JLPR
Quoting Chiggy007:
anybody watching that BIG wave that is still over Africa??


It is still rather large but not as impressive

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting almartia:


I never post.....however this was great.

In the words of a wise latina woman, "Would you like fries wit dat?"


You've got mail!!
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Vorticity also improving.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
I don't think 94L was ever a 11N, so I think they got it right now. It's got a board circulation but that was never centered at 11.
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695. JLPR
well there goes the models lol xD
they are all too far north even the southern consensus

94L is ignoring them and heading west
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Looking at the visible sat of 94L, it looks like the center is just south of 10N. It might actually be at 43W too!
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
anybody watching that BIG wave that is still over Africa??
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Quoting WXHEAD:


I too have a warped sense of humor, I laugh at stuff that I shouldn't and get "elbowed" often.
Accepting constructive criticism makes us wise, taking the other kind of criticism makes us strong.
At the risk of being accused of Hijacking: How about 94L? Looks like it had its "Wheaties" this morning. (That comment dates me). I like it when they grow faster than predicted.

Yes indeed, totally agree. 94L concerns me, just ask my husband. Now he knows how I feel during football season (excepting the Saints of course!). I am worried about a high pressure issue that was mentioned a few days ago possibly moving the storm most westward than northerly. I can't watch Katrina coverage today, still too raw for me. LONG STORY. Know what you mean about the humor thing. I've got some friends who get it and some who don't even understand why I'm laughing and appear deranged. I'm a wheaties boomer too! LOL :)
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Good afternoon

Well 94L is on the rebound and heading W

Very interesting
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
94L coming in low on the radar, could be dangerous.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
i see convection on the increase and if 94L was Danny, then the NHC might call it a hurricane
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685. Relix
Quoting stormsurge39:
What do you mean?


That he wants a depression =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
684. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L .is that old yes or no /?? any one ???


well if it is old or not

it is the highest so far with 94L since before that it was only TOO WEAK =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting DM21Altestic:
we need 94L to rise to 1.5, come on
What do you mean?
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Quoting yonzabam:


The scariest thing about Patrap's videos is that they were 11 miles east of NOLA, so that was storm surge and not the result of burst levees. Yet the water was on the roofs of the houses. Amazing that builders are allowed to build on such vulnerable land.
I agree, just like the people who build right on the beaches here. In Ivan the water went right through the homes totally gutting them.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Quoting stormsurge39:
Has the pressure dropped any with 94L?
It was 1011 this am and now Navy says 1010. Not dropped much.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Quoting DM21Altestic:
10.6 north, I don't see a fish storm.


yeah, it just seems to far south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think I need to break out "The Elements of Style" handbook I had in High School in order to post on a weather blog...

Grothar - I understand you just fine. Keep on posting...

What is the latest thinking on 94L?

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I live in Grand Cayman and just watching the coverage on CNN brought agony and heartbreak to me. We suffered in Ivan but not to the extent New Orleans suffered with Katrina. I hope I never live to see such devastation again. I cried many tears while watching it and still have a heavy heart for the folks who continue to struggle. God be with all of them.


The scariest thing about Patrap's videos is that they were 11 miles east of NOLA, so that was storm surge and not the result of burst levees. Yet the water was on the roofs of the houses. Amazing that builders are allowed to build on such vulnerable land.
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Has the pressure dropped any with 94L?
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Quoting cajunmoma:
Patrap, I just wanted to say thanks for posting the videos. Words can not express the feeling, agony, and fear that went through the minds and hearts of many that day and several days after.

The events that unfolded, still feel like it was just yesterday. So my prayer is that all who suffered that day can find peace.

The memories...well...I dont know what to say.
I live in Grand Cayman and just watching the coverage on CNN brought agony and heartbreak to me. We suffered in Ivan but not to the extent New Orleans suffered with Katrina. I hope I never live to see such devastation again. I cried many tears while watching it and still have a heavy heart for the folks who continue to struggle. God be with all of them.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
I will say we are seeing the birth of Erika, not that what i say holds much weight because im not a met or a met wanna be. I enjoy this site for the knowledgable info and the entertainment. Thank you
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668. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


I think we had pinpointed yesterday it would be around 11.1. Guess we were wrong or it moved WSW a bit.


its probably the center jumping around =P

but if it is at 10.6N at 42W already ... yikes!
that's no good
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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