Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Adieu to Danny
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009 +0
Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L
Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.
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1303. flsky 12:09 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting stormpetrol:

11.8N/44W , northern jog?


Wow, it didn't give up much, did it? Any interpretation?
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
1304. hydrus 12:09 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting Stoopid1:
Found something interesting today. Take a look at this and give me your thoughts. From January 1995;



Where is that located?
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1305. gordydunnot 12:09 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
94L 10.5 43W?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044
1306. TriniGirl26 12:11 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
ok question... what can i expect out of 94L? i mean Trinidad and Tobago going got some rain (i hope) but can we expect anything more than that?
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
1308. connie1976 12:11 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
thanks all for your info and opinions! This place is great even when there are arguments...
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1309. Cavin Rawlins 12:13 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
2009 produce 1 of the best storms in history - Bill. The waves, track and insights was more than what a tropical forecaster like myself would of asked for.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1310. chevycanes 12:11 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
latest quikscat show the circulation is not as very well defined with 94L as this morning.



close up only caught part of it.

Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 687
1313. JLPR 12:13 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting chevycanes:
latest quikscat show the circulation is not as very well defined with 94L as this morning.



close up only caught part of it.



yep apparently 94L has been weakening all day
the circulation doesn't look as good as it did yesterday
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1315. tornadofan 12:14 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting Tazmanian:
am this massing with evere one lol


LOL!
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1316. tornadodude 12:16 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting TriniGirl26:



I going to get some heat for this but is ridiculousness a word?


yesh it is lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
1317. stormpetrol 12:14 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting flsky:


Wow, it didn't give up much, did it? Any interpretation?

NW jog apparently, lets see if it persist? Bear in mind I'm no expert at this or do I profess to be, just trying to learn through trial & error, I could be dead wrong.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400
1318. hurricanemaniac123 12:14 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
I think people on this blog are suffering from RIP-casteritis and El Ninoitis.

I believe we will have at least 3 storms in September. I also believe there may be a chance 94L could become a TD before September. Also, I give 94L a 50-70% chance of becoming a TD
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1320. tornadofan 12:15 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
What rhymes with SHIP?
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1321. gordydunnot 12:15 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Notice how different the nhc is with systems in the middle of nowhere verses, as they get closer to land. This makes sense but messes with the statistics I think.
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1322. VAbeachhurricanes 12:15 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
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1324. tornadodude 12:15 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting tornadofan:
What rhymes with SHIP?


whip??
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1325. KEHCharleston 12:15 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
From post 1251 to post 1314

Only 20 posts have to do with weather.(I considered any post that loosely seemed weather related)

This is why ignore is used. Not because I disagree with someone, but because the constant bickering of people who offer nothing to the discussion except to put others down, bogs down the blog. Much easier to read without those posts

ADDED: The humor and off topic posts do not bother me. It is the harping and putting down others etc, that makes it unpleasant to be here.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1326. tornadofan 12:16 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Hmmm. my SHIP post was suppose to have a quote in it. I guess I had a code ID 10 T error.
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1328. TriniGirl26 12:17 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting tornadofan:
What rhymes with SHIP?



lip
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1329. JLPR 12:17 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting Hurricane009:
That should change as we head into tomorrow


yep it all depends on what happens tonight
if 94L doesn't get good convection tonight it might end up loosing its circulation tomorrow
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1330. chevycanes 12:18 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting stormpetrol:

NW jog apparently, lets see if it persist? Bear in mind I'm no expert at this or do I profess to be, just trying to learn through trial & error, I could be dead wrong.

no jog really. the circulation is just not as defined as it was earlier today and yesterday.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 687
1331. VAbeachhurricanes 12:19 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting tornadofan:
What rhymes with SHIP?


flip, sip, nip, chip
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1332. THUNDERPR 12:19 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic
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1333. Dakster 12:20 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
I see I created a monster here... Sorry blog admins. I won't do it again.

Although the blog would be as dead as the Atlantic Tropics are right now. (That can easily change, though)
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1334. VAbeachhurricanes 12:20 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting THUNDERPR:
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic


wow has it always had a T#??
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1336. stormpetrol 12:21 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting gordydunnot:
Notice how different the nhc is with systems in the middle of nowhere verses, as they get closer to land. This makes sense but messes with the statistics I think.

Very valid observation/comment, especially if the CONUS could be threatened, I've commented on this time & time again , this is what gives the US a bad rap, bear in mind I'm pro American though not American, but this can be one example of the selfishness & superiority that persons around the world accuse the US of, personally I find the Americans I know a kind and caring people but nevertheless this is often the case.
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1337. VAbeachhurricanes 12:22 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
456, storm, future, does 94L still have an anticylone on top of it?
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1338. stormwatcherCI 12:22 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting Weather456:
2009 produce 1 of the best storms in history - Bill. The waves, track and insights was more than what a tropical forecaster like myself would of asked for.
I have asked a few times today and no answer. Can you please tell me if there is anything going on with the flare-up in the SW Caribbean ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040
1339. TriniGirl26 12:23 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting stormpetrol:

Very valid observation/comment, especially if the CONUS could be threatened, I've commented on this time & time again , this is what gives the US a bad rap, bear in mind I'm pro American though not American, but this can be one example of the selfishness & superiority that persons around the world accuse the US of, personally I find the Americans I know a kind and caring people but nevertheless this is often the case.



stormpetrol i have a stupid question for u...what does CONUS stand for?
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
1340. Relix 12:23 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


wow has it always had a T#??


Since this morning. Tomorrow is the make-break day for 94L, nothing will happen tonight.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358
1342. THUNDERPR 12:23 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1145 UTC 9.8N 42.4W TOO WEAK 94L
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1343. jipmg 12:24 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have asked a few times today and no answer. Can you please tell me if there is anything going on with the flare-up in the SW Caribbean ?


there is no flare up in the SW caribbean.. unless you mean those T storms over central america..which will likely fall apart
1346. JLPR 12:24 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting Hurricane009:
I dont think it will lose its circulation overnight, especially with increasing SST's


nope I said tomorrow xD
if it manages to get some decent convection tonight then I would expect the circulation to strengthen tomorrow if it doesn't then would expect further weakening
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1347. stormpetrol 12:25 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting TriniGirl26:



stormpetrol i have a stupid question for u...what does CONUS stand for?

Continental United States.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400
1348. kmanislander 12:25 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
One post then have to go. Quikscat shows a very weak surface low near 10N 45W

Caribbean bound

back later
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1350. VAbeachhurricanes 12:25 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting THUNDERPR:
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1145 UTC 9.8N 42.4W TOO WEAK 94L


so according to that its been strengthing throughout the day?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4802
1351. CaneHunter031472 12:26 AM GMT on August 30, 2009    
Quoting TriniGirl26:



stormpetrol i have a stupid question for u...what does CONUS stand for?


Continental United States. 48 states not Alaska, Hawaii, or territories such as Puerto Rico or Virgin Islands included.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 895

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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