Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting weathermancer:


Has it ever happened to a tropical feature... where two circulations (regardless of what level of atmosphere) have birthed two separate storms - born from a single entity?

Anticyclonic counter storms on land I can understand... but two tropical ocean bound COC's moving far enough away from each other that two are created moving away from each other??

BTW... interesting discussions last night around post # 2000.

I thought so ..
And it was answered here again tonight

Good evening everyone, how is Erika doing?

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (T0912)
9:00 AM JST September 4 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dujuan (990 hPa) located at 17.4N 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving northeast slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.7N 131.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.7N 133.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 25.7N 135.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

Quoting bwi:
Martinique radar animation shows the rotating storms around the islands pretty well.

I only get a few frames on the anim tho :/

Quoting tornadodude:
Good evening everyone, how is Erika doing?

Who? ;)

Dpass is late!

Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Who? ;)

how is the "thing" formerly known as Erika doing? haha

Quoting Dakster:
Futuremet-

bon travay

Dak,
you speak Kreol? We can have a private conversation off blog.

Quoting atmoaggie:

I just did.
My picture? A her? What?!?

Atmo, since u got here people have been calling u "maggie"..... it's the moag, which all the bad spellers interpret implicitly as a bad spelling..... lol hence maggie . . .

For what its worth...
You can see the convection buildup on the south side of the circulation South of Puerto Rico on the Puerto Rico radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Quoting InTheCone:
18z GFS

Lots of fun to watch, probably won't come to much - lol!!

What's GFS got against the islands? Gesh! Lol.

Erika is amusing.


Hope nobody got flooded out; everyone's cisterns are full. No real damage done.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Lost myself.

Don't worry about sorry.
What are you confused about?

1. The pic is not me, but one of my sons. I am not a 4-year-old.
2. In supercell thunderstorms in the plains, there have been storms that split and maintain 2 separate cells. They have been detected by radar.
3. Tropical systems apparently have done this under very high shear conditions (much higher than that needed for the severe weather in the plains). BUT, this has only been done in modeling, to my knowledge, and would be an exceedingly rare occurrence in the real world.
4. I am not maggie. Once upon a time, Atmospheric Science student at Texas A&M, a school whose students are fondly known as Aggies due to it's Agricultural College heritage. AtmoAggie.

Thanks Maggie!!!

lol

Quoting Grothar:


Dak,
you speak Kreol? We can have a private conversation off blog.

oooo love those accents :)

There is no 8pm advisory for Erika because intermediate advisories are only issued when watches and warnings are in effect.

Quoting tornadodude:


how is the "thing" formerly known as Erika doing? haha

She's now the living dead.

Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
She's now the living dead.

well is she coming to theaters soon? lol

Quoting atmoaggie:

Lost myself.

Don't worry about sorry.
What are you confused about?

1. The pic is not me, but one of my sons. I am not a 4-year-old.
2. In supercell thunderstorms in the plains, there have been storms that split and maintain 2 separate cells. They have been detected by radar.
3. Tropical systems apparently have done this under very high shear conditions (much higher than that needed for the severe weather in the plains). BUT, this has only been done in modeling, to my knowledge, and would be an exceedingly rare occurrence in the real world.
4. I am not maggie. Once upon a time, Atmospheric Science student at Texas A&M, a school whose students are fondly known as Aggies due to it's Agricultural College heritage. AtmoAggie.

Hi, I am sorry if I offended you but I understood your name but for some reason typed automaggie as your name in a post. We laughed at my error and then come to think of it and your avatar (kind of small and face covered)was unsure if you were male or female really. You enlarged your avatar to show your alligator headed son at Audubon (really cute!)but this information did not clarify your gender. But I have gathered you are a male. I thank you and have definitely said too much... Thank you, thank you, and I'm a silly girl.

Quoting serialteg:


I only get a few frames on the anim tho :/

From the few frames it looks like a broad & weak CoC trying to form just N of Guadlope. Other observations please?

Quoting BahaHurican:
Atmo, since u got here people have been calling u "maggie"..... it's the moag, which all the bad spellers interpret implicitly as a bad spelling..... lol hence maggie . . .

I'm actually a preety good speller but it's like that paragraph they show you with all the leters in the wrong order in the words but your mind still reads it correctly anyway. I guess my mind corrected it to maggie. Yeah, that's the ticket...

ok.. in laymans term..erika is dead(or soon?

Quoting tornadodude:


well is she coming to theaters soon? lol

The living dead never tell. But I'd wear garlic just in case..

Quoting homelesswanderer:


What's GFS got against the islands? Gesh! Lol.

It's just trying to keep everyone on the blog excited - that's it's job "Gotta Forecast Something" - LOL!!

Quoting Grothar:
If you go to the NOAA site and look at the VISIBLE animation. It shows that the convection jumped right on top of the swirl. You all have to see it. Sorry I can't link, but most of you know where it is. If any of you can link it for the other I would appreciate it.

This is one "jumpy" system....

Quoting JupiterFL:


He lives in PSL, FL. He would be a good one to take on a chase. He is one of the best young forecasters on this blog. I always pay attention to what he and Drak have to say.

Agree.

Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
The living dead never tell. But I'd wear garlic just in case..

good call, except I live in Indiana, so, no worries

Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
I'm actually a preety good speller but it's like that paragraph they show you with all the leters in the wrong order in the words but your mind still reads it correctly anyway. I guess my mind corrected it to maggie. Yeah, that's the ticket...

Those are typo's by the way. Not spelling errors (hoping someone is buying all this)

funkyloopdance
She's doing her funky chicken due west now, according to nhc at 8 p.m....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 65.3W AT 03/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.

The invest formerly known as Erika seems to be calming down finally. On the other hand, the CMC run is rather interesting...and I see the NHC found the yellow crayon.

Quoting midgulfmom:
Ok, so now I'm a confused, silly, bad speller. LOL

eh, it could be worse..

Quoting midgulfmom:

Hi, I am sorry if I offended you but I understood your name but for some reason typed automaggie as your name in a post. We laughed at my error and then come to think of it and your avatar (kind of small and face covered)was unsure if you were male or female really. You enlarged your avatar to show your alligator headed son at Audubon (really cute!)but this information did not clarify your gender. But I have gathered you are a male. I thank you and have definitely said too much... Thank you, thank you, and I'm a silly girl.

Don't worry about it.
If that offended me, I sure wouldn't say as much as I do here. My feathers just don't ruffle in the blogs. From watching others, I can tell it is not worth the wasted heartbeats.

Quoting atmoaggie:

And you knew this when typing in your handle, apparently. Smart.
bahahurican without the caps might have led people to call you hahu.

Should have gone with AtmoAggie, eh? (I hate the shift key sometimes, though)

Who knew that, when making that quick decision & typing in a handle, that it is CARVED IN STONE, and CANNOT be modified. We are stuck with our caps, or lack thereof.

Quoting atmoaggie:

And you knew this when typing in your handle, apparently. Smart.
bahahurican without the caps might have led people to call you hahu.

Should have gone with AtmoAggie, eh? (I hate the shift key sometimes, though)

your handle is just fine the way it is. My trained eye automatically picked out Aggie - we bled maroon in my house growing up!

I was looking at the historical map of tropical depressions that passed within 400 miles of TD erika.

Link

Does the current weather conditions make it unlikely that TD Erika would follow a path similar to the ones on the map?

Thanks?

Quoting foggymyst:
ok.. in laymans term..erika is dead(or soon?

In layman's terms, almost not worth talking about apparently.

Quoting Grothar:


Dak,
you speak Kreol? We can have a private conversation off blog.

Not nearly enough to have a conversation off the blog... One of my best friends is from Haiti and he speaks Kreol all the time. I kind of picked up some things, listening to him speak with family and friends.

Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Those are typo's by the way. Not spelling errors (hoping someone is buying all this)

Yes I am buying it! Thank you. It could be worse. I won't go there. LOL

UUHH Look at the new convection firing right over the center of Ericka!! She is coming back!Link

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
A little convective blowup close to the center of 'Erika' but I think it's just a last death rattle of the system. Keeping an eye on it but still expect it to die.

I keep posting this so that everyone sees how sad Erika looks =P
PR Radar

Quoting midgulfmom:
Yes I am buying it! Thank you. It could be worse. I won't go there. LOL

Ha.. us gals gotta stick together! ;)

wouldn't surprise me in the least to see erika latch on to the ull in the caribbean to her sw and make another go at it.

shearmap
This has been the 'kindest' tropical season I have ever seen.

Jimena sending TX/LA a gift??

Link

*atmo goes away to watch the Saints preseason game to see if they put Patrap, in all his Suite glory, on TV*
**atmo hopes Pat wore a shirt to the game**

Quoting StormW:
Back.

What do you think about new covection firing off of Erika?

Quoting Dakster:


Not nearly enough to have a conversation off the blog... One of my best friends is from Haiti and he speaks Kreol all the time. I kind of picked up some things, listening to him speak with family and friends.

qui sa? moon la ka parle creol?

000
NOUS71 KNES 032108
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY, QUIKSCAT DATA OUTAGE, ISSUED: SEPTEMBER 03,
TOPIC: *QUIKSCAT DATA OUTAGE
*

DATE/TIME ISSUED*: SEPTEMBER 03, 2009 2100 UTC*

PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED: *SCATTEROMETER DATA
*

DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: *SEPTEMBER 03, 2009 2010 UTC*

DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END: *UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE*

LENGTH OF EVENT: ***8 TO 12 HOURS*

IMPACTS ON USERS AND SIGNIFICANCE: *USERS WILL NOT RECEIVE QUIKSCAT
DATA.
*

USER ACTIONS: *NONE.*

DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: * ESPC HAS RECEIVED AN EMAIL FROM
MISSION
OPERATION IN BOULDER, CO.
THAT QUIKSCAT HAS HAD AN ANOMALY. THEY ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE
PROBLEM AND THEY ANTICIPATE THE DATA
OUTAGE TO BE 8 TO 12 HOURS. THE MISSION OPERATION WILL PROVIDE MORE
INFORMATION AS THEY RECEIVED IT.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Don't worry about it.
If that offended me, I sure wouldn't say as much as I do here. My feathers just don't ruffle in the blogs. From watching others, I can tell it is not worth the wasted heartbeats.

Wait a minute.. you have feathers?? (grin)

Quoting atmoaggie:
*atmo goes away to watch the Saints preseason game to see if they put Patrap, in all his Suite glory, on TV*
**atmo hopes Pat wore a shirt to the game**

Go Saints!!!!!!!!!!!!!!