Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Some heavy convective burst with TD 7 might bring it to Fred as early as tonight

I am not saying he will go south and west, nor am I not arguing that he will go north. I just see the possibility of a further south solution. Just because a system is stronger, does not mean it will go further north, case in point was Hurricane Ike last year.

This is what the 5PM advisory will look like (discount the coordinates, they are similar to the 5PM advisories but not exact)

Storm information valid as of: Monday, September 7, 2009 18:00 Z
Coordinates: 12.4N 23.9W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)
Location: 176 miles (283 km) to the S (188°) from Praia, Cape Verde
Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?
Pressure (MSLP): 1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s)

Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
I am not saying he will go south and west, nor am I not arguing that he will go north. I just see the possibility of a further south solution. Just because a system is stronger, does not mean it will go further north, case in point was Hurricane Ike last year.

That is true - just becuz a hurricane is strong does not mean it will go north.

but Hurricane Ike was under different steering patterns.

In this case, if TD 7 strengthens, that increases the chance of curvature as the deep layer weakness is stronger.

Quoting Patrap:
Im so confused..is it 96L,0L7, 007,or TD-7..and should I sauce the Chicken again or start the wienies?

The Shrimps are beginning to Burl too.

Smells like a Holiday here.

Sounds more like your typical weekend, Pat. :D

000
WHXX01 KMIA 071924
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1924 UTC MON SEP 7 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA (EP152009) 20090907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090907 1800 090908 0600 090908 1800 090909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 126.7W 15.6N 128.1W 16.0N 129.1W 16.4N 129.9W
BAMD 15.4N 126.7W 15.6N 127.7W 15.9N 128.6W 16.4N 129.5W
BAMM 15.4N 126.7W 15.7N 128.1W 16.0N 129.3W 16.3N 130.4W
LBAR 15.4N 126.7W 15.7N 127.8W 16.2N 128.9W 17.1N 130.3W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 57KTS 58KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 57KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090909 1800 090910 1800 090911 1800 090912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 130.8W 19.1N 132.6W 22.6N 133.3W 26.0N 133.1W
BAMD 17.2N 130.7W 19.9N 133.7W 24.0N 136.7W 27.3N 137.5W
BAMM 16.7N 131.6W 18.1N 133.6W 21.4N 135.5W 24.7N 136.7W
LBAR 18.1N 131.9W 21.8N 135.4W 26.1N 136.6W 29.2N 131.9W
SHIP 60KTS 52KTS 33KTS 0KTS
DSHP 60KTS 52KTS 33KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 126.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 125.3W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 123.9W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 60


LINDA is going up too 45kt

Yes, Weather456, that is true, but that weakness can change quickly. I believe that was the case with Ike last year.

This is definitely gonna be Fred, I think a hurricane and possibly major hurricane during the course of this week and next week. It has the best opportunity of any Cape Verde system this year with a moist environment in front of it, but behind it comes another burst of dry air to shut things down again.

Quoting Weather456:


That is true - just becuz a hurricane is strong does not mean it will go north.

but Hurricane Ike was under different steering patterns.

In this case, if TD 7 strengthens, that increases the chance of curvature as the deep layer weakness is stronger.

correct, if it is not deep enough (strong) it will not feel the effects of the trough, but it is expected that this will probably become hurricane Fred, so right now a curvature is anticipated, but remember this is mother nature and no one on this earth can correctly and accurately predict the tropics.

On water vapor imagery you can see that the cirrus outflow clouds are moving westward and are not being pulled northwestward. This is possibly a sign that it should continue westward for another day or two at the least.

In fact, TD 7 has three troughs to overcome, and the GFS has it meeting the 3rd one as a weak tropical cyclone. Actually the GFS weakens TD 7 beyond 1 week and turns it back west. In the image below, TD 7 is staring into the face of a strong front. We'll have to wait and see what unfolds.

so td7 @ 5pm?

The wave in back of 07L is producing strong convection but it is disorganized, models have been hinting for this to become our next TD but nothing too intense because of the presence of 07L.

Is Td/7, Fred going to be a westward traveler? Ensemble models would seem to think so.

Quoting Levi32:
This is definitely gonna be Fred, I think a hurricane and possibly major hurricane during the course of this week and next week. It has the best opportunity of any Cape Verde system this year with a moist environment in front of it, but behind it comes another burst of dry air to shut things down again.

The models seem to be expecting the high moisture levels to remain stagnant over the area, especially as the MJO moves in. The NOGAPS is keeping SAL values low across the region.

Link

GFS 700mb RH

It's getting close to 5pm, that's when we should get information from the NHC of 07L/96L.

NOGAPS developing the wave behind 07L:


GFS has the wave behind 07L following 07L's path:

Quoting Ameister12:
It's getting close to 5pm, that's when we should get information from the NHC of 07L.

between 4:30 and 5:00

Quoting stormpetrol:
Is Td/7, Fred going to be a westward traveler? Ensemble models would seem to think so.

If it stays weak like the GFDL is forecasting, then yes it will move W, if it intensifies like a lot of models are predicting 07L should curve out to sea.

Quoting Weather456:


between 4:30 and 5:00

Probably gonna get the info at 4:45.

TS Fred by 11 tonight?

Quoting stormpetrol:
TS Fred by 11 tonight?

Its possible

Quoting stormpetrol:
TS Fred by 11 tonight?

I would think so.

ECMWF model not forecasting the wave behind 07L to become anything...ECMWF taking 07L out to sea.

The non tropical low has dumped some heavy rains across South and North Carolina

Quoting Weather456:
The non tropical low has dumped some heavy rains across South and North Carolina

It's not ending anytime soon.

Quoting cyclonekid:
Its possible

Quoting Ameister12:

I would think so.

looks like a TS already imo.

NHC has issued Forecasts Advisories for TD 7 and TS Linda

000
WTNT22 KNHC 072033
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.6N 26.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 28.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.9N 30.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.1N 32.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 24.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTNT32 KNHC 072034
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.5 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 24.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Quoting Weather456:
The non tropical low has dumped some heavy rains across South and North Carolina

Yes i have had about 2 inches today on Emerald Isle about 20 miles south of Morehead City NC. Its slacked off a lil but i see other bands commin

Quoting Weather456:
The non tropical low has dumped some heavy rains across South and North Carolina

I can attest to that. Back yard is now flooded, rain gauge says we've had 6.7 inches thus far.

Is the nontropical low off of NC something that just formed or is it the reminant low of Erika?

00
WTPZ35 KNHC 072033
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 PM PDT MON SEP 07 2009

...TWELFTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2009 EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
INTENSIFYING QUICKLY...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1225 MILES...1975 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

LINDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME
FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...AND LINDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.5N 127.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

Stormpetrol, Good call on that mess of a storm Erika,

Quoting goddessnoel4u:


FRED WILL DIE

Good afternoon! Excellent observation!! Everything LIVES then it DIES!! YOUR POINT?? We're here to learn and observe!! Don't be a twit!!

Quoting LavosPhoenix:
Is the nontropical low off of NC something that just formed or is it the reminant low of Erika?

I think it formed from a cutoff low that came out of the Gulf and mixed with the rems of Erica

I'm glad there isn't any development currently in the Caribbean. All these troughs would signal for a Wilma-esque track to Florida. Lets hope it stays quiet down there

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE SEVENTH OF THE 2009
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE EXACT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. EARLIER TODAY THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER NOW THE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION
...BUT DISPLACED EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DESPITE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...BOTH CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.0...YIELDING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CUTS-OFF NEAR 27N40W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY
ACCOUNTS FOR INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LONGER RANGES MORE ACCURATELY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE HWRF AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...
WHICH BOTH BRING THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2-3 DAYS.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 12.5N 24.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 12.6N 26.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 13.0N 28.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 13.9N 30.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 15.1N 32.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 17.6N 33.9W 55 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 34.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 34.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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5-Day Track Forecast Cone