New African disturbance 96L likely to develop
A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.
The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.
North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.
I'll have an update Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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oh stop it...there's nothing wrong with a little prayer, even if it is from a RINO! LOL
Yes I'm a "Paw-Paw" and would not have it any other way....
Priceless for sure :0)
He did not necessarily use it in vain, for "God" is a title, not a name. Any man or entity who rules or dominate may be called a "God" or a "Lord". The real name of the true God is Y-A-H-W-E-H = Jehovah in english. (1Cor8:5,6)
poof geof .....
I agree with you 11.4 mmmmmmm and it has moved more wsw than I thought it would....
Thanks
Seastep....this blog has motivated me a lot
Especially users like Levi32 and 456
What makes me say that..is that I remember a storm that Pat Robertson prayed away...It did go away from his area, but hit somewhere north and caused some deaths.
Kid comes to the US from horrid conditions (anywhere in Haiti, really) and makes something of himself. Contributing. Wish more Americans would be so ambitious. Used to be.
Sorry. Had to get that out.
LOL...you're keeping me from going to bed...stop it!
No, we will end up with at least 5.
goodevening! thanks!
such are the circumstances of chance!
I'm sorry...my bad (beat me with a switch!). I meant "III", but somehow left off the last "I"! doh!
the F-4 Phantom II is my all-time favorite. second place is a tie between the A-10 Thunderbolt II and the P-51 Mustang!
Hi Ya StormW good to see ya..
could be very Interesting for sure.... But we all will know in a few more minutes...
yeah, I agree, but now might be a good time to try to keep to the tropics
As Haboobs said last night, the longwave pattern does not favor a long-range strike to the United States coast for Cape Verde storms, and he's correct.
be thankful Presslord isn't here...otherwise, he might have to administer an admonishment. :)
GOOD! let's keep it that way! ;)
Proof?
Fred is born
horray!!
now i want to see that...
That's just for CV storms, though. Storms forming closer to home are a different story.
me too :)
I know aggie..I know people were praying away Katrina, Ike and Andrew...and the list goes on. I suffered greatly with Wilma...and afterwards my mom gave me a saying....
Sometimes God calms the storm...Sometimes he lets the storm rage and calms his child.
Deep for most people, but helped me.
DOH! LOL
yeah
Link
2009 Storms
All Active Year
Atlantic
07L.FRED
wow...now THAT is awesome!
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