Fred dying; no immediate danger areas in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 12, 2009

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Tropical Storm Fred has been ripped apart by wind shear, as strong southerly winds of 20 knots have removed all of Fred's heavy thunderstorms, leaving only a naked low-level swirl of clouds. Wind shear of 20 - 40 knots will continue today through Monday, and Fred should dissipate by Sunday night. Due to the continued strong shear expected over Fred the next four days, it is unlikely there will be anything left of the storm to regenerate from once the remains reach an area with moderate wind shear five days from now.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Fred (upper left) appears as a swirl of low-level clouds with no heavy thunderstorm activity in this morning visible satellite image. A new tropical disturbance (right) near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 - 30 knots of wind shear.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday is very disorganized. The wave as yet does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and wind shear is high, 20 - 30 knots. By Monday, the shear may drop below 20 knots, allowing some slow development. The GFS model has backed off on its prediction that this wave would develop into a tropical depression.

A low pressure system is over eastern Texas and the adjoining waters along the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast. This low is under high shear, about 25 knots, and is not tropical. Shear is expected to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days. The low should remain non-tropical during this time, but will bring much-needed heavy rains to drought-stricken south Texas. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have occurred over portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana from this low, and flash flood watches have been posted for a large sections of these states.

Over the next few days, we should also be alert for tropical storm development along a frontal zone stretching from the Gulf of Mexico waters offshore the western Florida coast, across the Florida Peninsula, to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.


Figure 2. Total rainfall from the Austin, TX radar from the low pressure system over coastal Texas.

Twenty years ago on this date
On September 12, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo, still far out at sea in the middle Atlantic, continued to grow more organized. Heavy thunderstorms thickened near the storm's center and in four prominent spiral bands. Updrafts from the intense thunderstorms near the storm's core began reaching the base of the stratosphere, creating high cirrus clouds that an upper-level anticyclone over the storm carried away. By nightfall, Hugo had intensified to a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Now three days from the Lesser Antilles Islands, the storm continued to churn westward across the open Atlantic at 20 mph.

At NOAA's Miami-based Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--my boss, Jim McFadden, called me into his office. My fellow flight meteorologist, Jack Parrish, was also there. "We've got a planned two-plane deployment to Barbados on the 14th", Jim told us. "Frankly, if this storm wasn't named after the director of AOML, we wouldn't be going. It doesn't look too impressive right now." (AOML was NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, which supervised research flights by NOAA's hurricane hunter aircraft, and Hugo Bezdek was the director). We discussed the possible missions, and agreed that regardless of Hugo's strength, we should be flying it, since we had used up very few of our allotted flight hours for the year. Jack and I would be in charge of coordinating the missions on the two aircraft. It would be my first hurricane flight of what had been a very slow season so far. I was excited to be going to Barbados, an island I had never been to. The as-yet unimpressive Tropical Storm Hugo did not give me any concerns about a possible rough ride.


Figure 3. AVHRR visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Hugo taken on September 12, 1989. Well-developed low-level spiral bands are apparent, and high cirrus clouds denoting upper-level outflow are visible on three sides. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

Jeff Masters

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918. BahaHurican
1:36 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting gator23:

They are fresh, they are delivered every morning from the closest Krispy Kreme Store.
There u go, Ike; ur wish @ Walmart.... lol

I'm having a boiled egg and italian sausage myself.... while looking at the GOES interactive viewer. I'm not seeing much with this frontal system near us to make me think it's reasonable to expect anything to develop in our area....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
917. cyclonekid
1:27 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1721
916. Autistic2
1:23 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting BahaHurican:
Might be able to find a KK @ Walmart. I've seen them in the FL stores from time to time. Dunno how fresh they are, though....

And there has to be SOME wx value to talking abt doughnuts.... lol

Morning, everybody....


Surley COFFEE can be a KK/weather event, sort of a swirll on top with the creamer. Looks kind of like EX fred right now?
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 455
915. BahaHurican
1:22 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
I agree w/ u on that, TS. Seems these weaker systems are responding to aspects of the wx environment that the models are not taking into account in a proper way.....

Meanwhile, in Nassau we have sunny skies, though the blue is that funny metallic-looking colour that makes u expect thunderstorms later on....



I expect we will get some further disturbed weather today.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
914. lawntonlookers
1:22 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


I would say no where really. Both sides had valid points and thus we did not really come to an agreement. I still think it should of been atleast an invest and the spiral inflow into the storm at 1 point, also indicated it had some tropical characteristics.

I am waiting on a response from the NHC.



Thanks 451 and 456

It was a very interesting hybrid storm to watch and follow as it came north. I think that it should have at least been given an invest seeing it is still hurricane season. If it was latter in the year, it would have been labeled a nor easterly. Lets just be glad it happened in September and not in January. We would have snow measured in feet. Just my thoughts.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
913. cyclonekid
1:20 PM GMT on September 13, 2009


Hurricane Lili (1990) possible track???
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1721
912. IKE
1:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting gator23:

the things you do for fun astound me


Ain't nobody else gonna do it. It needs doing anyway. I like to mow sometimes. Gives my mind a chance to think about things.

L8R.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
911. gator23
1:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting IKE:


LOL...

Good morning.

Weather doesn't look bad here so far today. Think I'll go push a lawnmower for a couple of hours....

the things you do for fun astound me
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
910. gator23
1:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its amazing how poorly the models are performing this year with weak systems....course that is about all we have had this year so far.....KNOCKING ON WOOD.......old Fred is moving West and maybe WSW a bit.....while 90% of the models have him moving WNW......it appears the GFS models are the only ones doing decent with weak systems. Even the BAM models are all screwed up......Don't know what screws was tightened and loosened but, someone really messed up the Carburator really bad. Its missin really bad!

for every upgrade theres a downgrade
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
909. IKE
1:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting BahaHurican:
Might be able to find a KK @ Walmart. I've seen them in the FL stores from time to time. Dunno how fresh they are, though....

And there has to be SOME wx value to talking abt doughnuts.... lol

Morning, everybody....


LOL...

Good morning.

Weather doesn't look bad here so far today. Think I'll go push a lawnmower for a couple of hours....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
908. gator23
1:15 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting BahaHurican:
Might be able to find a KK @ Walmart. I've seen them in the FL stores from time to time. Dunno how fresh they are, though....

And there has to be SOME wx value to talking abt doughnuts.... lol

Morning, everybody....

They are fresh, they are delivered every morning from the closest Krispy Kreme Store.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
907. TampaSpin
1:14 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Its amazing how poorly the models are performing this year with weak systems....course that is about all we have had this year so far.....KNOCKING ON WOOD.......old Fred is moving West and maybe WSW a bit.....while 90% of the models have him moving WNW......it appears the GFS models are the only ones doing decent with weak systems. Even the BAM models are all screwed up......Don't know what screws was tightened and loosened but, someone really messed up the Carburator really bad. Its missin really bad!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
906. BahaHurican
1:09 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Freddie got a shearing haircut and when he did, the dust infested him.

Now he looks like a doughnut and it's making me think of heading to Wal-Mart for a batch of chocolate covered doughnuts........

Where's a Krispy Kreme when you need one?
Might be able to find a KK @ Walmart. I've seen them in the FL stores from time to time. Dunno how fresh they are, though....

And there has to be SOME wx value to talking abt doughnuts.... lol

Morning, everybody....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
905. homelesswanderer
1:08 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting cajunmoma:
Good Morning All! Popped in to catch up on what's going on. My computer caught the swine flue and had to be crashed and brought back to life.

It is very humid and nasty here in South Louisiana. Forecast calls for 50% - 80% chance of rain all next week. Since I no longer have all of my sites to look at can someone catch me up on what's happening in the GOM?


Don't know where in LA you are but this from Lake Charles.


.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SMALLER LOBES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN GYRE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A TONGUE OF RELATIVELY DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR THAT HAS
WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

AT THE SFC...LAND/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM A BROAD SFC LOW NEAR
THE MIDDLE TX COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS ON TAP...WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAVING CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST 24HRS. THE SFC WARM FRONT MADE ALMOST NO NORTHWARD
PROGRESS YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY CHANGE TODAY. THE MID/UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
TEXAS...WITH THE SFC LOW CREEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO...THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD...REACHING JUST NORTH OF THE HWY 190 CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING.

IN THE MEANTIME...LOBES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...SETTING OFF SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY...AS IS THE SLIM CHANCE OF A WEAK/SHORT LIVED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
904. cajunmoma
1:08 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting IKE:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF MEXICO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


Thanks Ike! So now that it is inland, we will get rain, and lots of it from the way it sounds.
903. IKE
1:06 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting cajunmoma:
Good Morning All! Popped in to catch up on what's going on. My computer caught the swine flue and had to be crashed and brought back to life.

It is very humid and nasty here in South Louisiana. Forecast calls for 50% - 80% chance of rain all next week. Since I no longer have all of my sites to look at can someone catch me up on what's happening in the GOM?



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF MEXICO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
902. cajunmoma
1:04 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Good Morning All! Popped in to catch up on what's going on. My computer caught the swine flue and had to be crashed and brought back to life.

It is very humid and nasty here in South Louisiana. Forecast calls for 50% - 80% chance of rain all next week. Since I no longer have all of my sites to look at can someone catch me up on what's happening in the GOM?
901. superpete
1:04 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:
Today Sun 15:00 EST
Sydney, Australi
Wind: WNW at 13kph gusts:26kph
temp:32.5 dew point:-4.4
feels like: 30.0
Relative humidity 9%
11 degrees above average
A nice day in Sydney!
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 636
900. IKE
1:01 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
I gave the GOM blob a 45-50% chance of developing and thought it would be an invest, but I never threw this garbage out....


stormt 8:42 AM CDT on September 12, 2009
a surface low in the gom just east of corpus christi texas has a pressure of 2006 mb its starting too get its act together and could bring torrential rains to the la and miss coasts..wind gusts to tropical storm force has been reported offshoe from my latest info i have and reports i received..a rornado watch will probably be issued for parts of la and miss this afternoon...stay tuned ...Stormt



stormt 8:57 AM CDT on September 12, 2009
a recon plane will be going down in the gulf to check this weather system later this afternoon ...pressures continue to fall and the shear has slacken quite a bit near the llc..all interests along the la and miss coasts should be ready to take quick action if warnings go up tonight and tomorrow...sst are in the upper 80S down there and it would not take much for a tropical storm to form later today...la and miss are expecting and additional 6 to 12 inches of rain for today and sunday and could be higher amounts due to training effects to 15 inches...Stormt



stormt 9:13 AM CDT on September 12, 2009
i think we have grace by sunday in the gulf of mexico..pressures are continuing to fall..winds gusts to 41 knots reported at lake front marina a few minutes ago.....Stormno


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
899. cyclonekid
1:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting P451:
Continued blob watching in the CATL. For reference - the stationary white dot in the upper left portion of the loop is Bermuda.

its got some spin to it
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1721
896. Cavin Rawlins
12:55 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting lawntonlookers:
451 and 456


What was the final outcome on the conversation on the NJ storm? I had to leave at noon yesterday and I see that the discussion went on after that.


I would say no where really. Both sides had valid points and thus we did not really come to an agreement. I still think it should of been atleast an invest and the spiral inflow into the storm at 1 point, also indicated it had some tropical characteristics.

I am waiting on a response from the NHC.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
895. homelesswanderer
12:54 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Sigh. I rest my case.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
892. lawntonlookers
12:50 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
451 and 456


What was the final outcome on the conversation on the NJ storm? I had to leave at noon yesterday and I see that the discussion went on after that.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
891. AussieStorm
12:48 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


That's what happen when you put showers in the GOM. Still didnt know what the hype was for since it was rather unimpressive from the start. The wishcasting reached to a point where persons listen to the NAM rather than the other models.

people are so desperate for something to develop, when the NHC put a yellow circle around a blob people go bisserk
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
890. homelesswanderer
12:48 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting P451:


Except for a few who either do it on purpose to annoy - or that are just starting to understand the tropics and don't yet know what to look for when it comes to development or lack there of - I don't see this Wish/Doom casting that a number of users speak about.

Early on the Gulf looked prime, the models were hinting at development (as did Africa) and people were suggesting we were going to see some activity.

Since then both regions have become hostile and it's perfectly normal to see people go the other way in their opinions - now saying there won't be anything to watch for some time.

Not sure what some folks want to read on here...or why they label those opinions as they do.



Thank you. Nicely put. Even the so called pros stoop to sarcasm and labeling. Does make you wonder why they come on the blog at all if it's so beneath them. ;)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
889. Cavin Rawlins
12:42 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting BA:
non-stop wish/fear -casting in here the past week for the GOM

looking at the experts... i.e. NHC. Dr. Masters, etc etc... calm, cool, collective and right on


That's what happen when you put showers in the GOM. Still didnt know what the hype was for since it was rather unimpressive from the start. The wishcasting reached to a point where persons listen to the NAM rather than the other models.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
888. AussieStorm
12:41 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting P451:


Dry as a bone! I know low humidity is nice...but you know, 30% would be nice. 9%? That can't be pleasant...is it?

we have a total fire ban here in Greater Sydney.
ATM there is 21 bush fires in the NSW
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
886. IKE
12:38 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Freddie got a shearing haircut and when he did, the dust infested him.

Now he looks like a doughnut and it's making me think of heading to Wal-Mart for a batch of chocolate covered doughnuts........

Where's a Krispy Kreme when you need one?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
885. homelesswanderer
12:32 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Definitely better than last year this time. But I think Mother Natures letting us know she's out there still. Yes Ma'am. We hear you. Lol.

IN THE MEANTIME...LOBES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...SETTING OFF SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY...AS IS THE SLIM CHANCE OF A WEAK/SHORT LIVED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER.

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
881. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:26 PM GMT on September 13, 2009


a SAL-icane at 17 N x 35 W ------------------------------------------------------^
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
880. homelesswanderer
12:24 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Sorry. Good morning. It just came a shake ya out of your bed gullywasher. I think its quieted enough to hear myself think.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
879. homelesswanderer
12:19 PM GMT on September 13, 2009



Holy Thunderstorm Batman!

Wow wt heck is going on??? Sounds worse than it looks on radar.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
878. IKE
12:14 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 28N96W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW TO S TEXAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO TEXAS WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE
FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO NE MEXICO BY WED AND FROM
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
876. surfmom
12:10 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting IKE:
At least the NHC gave us a nice round yellow circle in the western GOM as a going away present. Now that it's moved inland it will be dropped on the next TWO...


Perfecto -- I got my waves, Texas got needed rain.... and now...... the yellow circle in the GOM shall disappear.....
I'm out-- Neptune is tapping his foot : )
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
875. redwagon
12:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting Cotillion:
I loved all the previous posts of - "Oh, it's going to be like Hurricane X, Tropical Storm Y, or Hurricane Z!'

Have you ever seen a track similar to this? It's a rarity.



Forgot its lunch? Had to turn around on the way to work and go get it?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3189
874. AussieStorm
12:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
Quoting peejodo:

Summer is on its way AussieStorm...Hope you don't get those fires again....ever


It's already started

Batemans Bay (Guerilla Bay) Fire Fire Update 13/09/09 17:22
Posted: 13/09/2009
Fire fighters have been working on a fire in the Guerilla Bay area, where several properties were under threat this afternoon.

Firefiighters provided property protection to 30 homes in Shaw Place at Guerilla Bay, with no losses. Firefighters will continue to work behind these homes and along George Bass Drive to mop up and patrol the fire.

The fire continues to burn in bush land along the marine cliff edge and to the west of George Bass Drive, under milder weather conditions.

Eurobodalla (Dromedary Fire) Fire Update 13/09/09 18:22
Posted: 13/09/2009
Firefighters continue to work towards containment of the Dromedary Fire that broke containment lines earlier today.

Crews from the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS), National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS) and Forest NSW (FNSW) were supported by waterbombing aircraft today as they continued to work on this fire which has been burning for a number of weeks.

Waterbombing aircraft were used to successfully conduct property protection on one remote property to the north east of the fire near the Mount Dromedary Walking Trail.

There is no current threat to property and firefighters will continue to mop up and patrol containment lines throughout the evening.

Residents in and around the Mount Dromedary Walking Trail are advised to monitor their properties for any ember attack or small spot fires which may affect the area.

plus 19 other fires around the state.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
873. IKE
12:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2009
At least the NHC gave us a nice round yellow circle in the western GOM as a going away present. Now that it's moved inland it will be dropped on the next TWO...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
871. IKE
11:55 AM GMT on September 13, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF MEXICO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 625 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
870. Cavin Rawlins
11:52 AM GMT on September 13, 2009
After a week of wishcasting, I see its back to downcasting.....hmmm and kinda confuse.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
869. Cavin Rawlins
11:48 AM GMT on September 13, 2009
Good Morning;

Welcomed rains for Texas; Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
868. Cotillion
11:41 AM GMT on September 13, 2009
MJO forecast:



Much less bullish than it was, which is good. Still expect a couple more storms yet easily. GFS is about the same, but the CFS is its usual self.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.