Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


yup

and likely get back to some normality.

Quoting JLPR:
Interesting little feature

That little feature use to be at huge feature.

Quoting Weather456:


and likely get back to some normality.

I wouldnt go that far lol

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I wouldnt go that far lol

seriously, the posts this year have been too depressing. lol Sometimes I don't even want to come cuz you must see someone posting the TWO and complaining about how quiet the season is and so many days for it to end; as if it is the 1st time it ever happened.

Quoting Ameister12:

That little feature use to be at huge feature.

Did cold water cause shrinkage?

Quoting Dakster:


Did cold water cause shrinkage?

not likely cool SSTs

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS WILL SWING EAST AND FURTHER AMPLIFY. BY LATE MONDAY THE
A STRONG CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION WILL CROSS OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH
CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THEN WILL TAPER POPS FROM
NIL FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO LOWER CHANCE FOR THE VALDOSTA REGION
AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BACKING
TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY AND WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO OUR SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS. THE EARLY FALL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO
THE MID 50S WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

Thanks IKE.

Alright, according to WS no storms until after Octber 6th. I can deal with that.

Quoting Dakster:
A Hurricane Warning has just been issued in Blacksburg, VA...

Hopefully, it doesn't fall apart shortly.

Go Hokies!

Quoting Weather456:


seriously, the posts this year have been too depressing. lol Sometimes I don't even want to come cuz you must see someone posting the TWO and complaining about how quiet the season is and so many days for it to end; as if it is the 1st time it ever happened.

I agree it does get redundant after a while.

Even though things are Very hostile close to home right now the sw caribbean holds some possibility for tc formation in October as long as there is a break in the strong westerlies. BUT this year is much like 2006 and 2007, where this was not any tc development there (or in the Gulf of Mexico) during that period.

Have a great afternoon.

Don't think Gracie will be coming out of the czpe verde waves IMO

Seems to be trying hard

Quoting P451:
Interesting Mediterranean system:

Yeah Cruised through one of those last Nov 24th to be exact Not alot of fun 103K winds 26 ft Seas

there is nothing on the 12Z ECMWF WS, give it up lol

Quoting hurricane23:
Even though things are Very hostile close to home right now the sw caribbean holds some possibility for tc formation in October as long as there is a break in the strong westerlies. BUT this year is much like 2006 and 2007, where this was not any tc development there (or in the Gulf of Mexico) during that period.

Have a great afternoon.

One thing I noticed is that even though the CFS decreases the 250mb winds, subsequently forecasting for below average shear, it is increasing the 850mb winds which makes it harder for low pressure circulations to form.

Quoting sporteguy03:


I agree it does get redundant after a while.

true.

Still I don't understand how all this is good as some say. I mean without tropical cyclones, what's the point of coming to the blog, that's the main reason we are here right? So that we can get information, stimulate meaningful discussions and acquire skills in forecasting in the tropics. Yes hurricanes cause destruction when they meet land but its not up to us. Yes there is more to weather than the tropics so why is the blog crawling?

Never understood. But we should return to normal next year, hoping for all fish but again is not up to me.

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Not according to rob from crown weather. i tend to believe him.

ECMWF has nothing on it on the 12Z run, I am looking at it now

Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS WILL SWING EAST AND FURTHER AMPLIFY. BY LATE MONDAY THE
A STRONG CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION WILL CROSS OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH
CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THEN WILL TAPER POPS FROM
NIL FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO LOWER CHANCE FOR THE VALDOSTA REGION
AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BACKING
TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY AND WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO OUR SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS. THE EARLY FALL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO
THE MID 50S WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

hey coldcaster :)

uh oh LSU fans get nervous, Miss St is a driving lol


It is clear the SEC isnt as strong as they were at the top as they were last season

Also I think Kentucky will upset the *cough cough* under the weather Gators today

Nothing imminent will likely occur in the SW caribbean next week, due to the fact that conditions will not be very hospitable for tropical cyclogenesis. Perhaps after the next 10 days when the effects of the a positive surge will start manifesting. Tropical cyclones have a tendency to form in the latter part of upward phases...

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
uh oh LSU fans get nervous, Miss St is a driving lol


It is clear the SEC isnt as strong as they were at the top as they were last season

Also I think Kentucky will upset the *cough cough* under the weather Gators today

ok, I am glad you are better at forecasting weather than college football. You can not be serious to think that even sick UF is going to fall to UK.

Quoting WeatherStudent:
So you're not expecting anything to form in the carib. this oct, adri?

Best dates seems to be Oct 10-25.

Quoting hunkerdown:
hey coldcaster :)

That's me.....

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.

Bring it on!

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
uh oh LSU fans get nervous, Miss St is a driving lol


It is clear the SEC isnt as strong as they were at the top as they were last season

Also I think Kentucky will upset the *cough cough* under the weather Gators today

The real powers in the SEC this year are the Gators and Tide. Don't go by a preseason poll. Ole Miss should never have been there, the only reason they were even in the top 5 was due to a top 5 team losing in each of the first four weeks of the season (which has never happened before). Yes, they beat UF last year and LSU two years ago, but there was no real reason for them to be considered a top 10 powerhouse. And as far as LSU goes, yes they ma be competitve but not really challenging for the SEC crown let alone a top 5 team. I would tend to keep my eye on South Carolina and Arkansas as solid spoilers.

The ECMWF has been consistent (3 runs) showing a weak area of low pressure forming in the SW Caribbean late next week. However, it showed nada in the 12z run. This is no surprise, because upper air conditions did not look that favorable. The ensemble mean also show ridging over the east coast during that time; this will likely cause a westward motion toward central America.

Quoting hercj:
ok, I am glad you are better at forecasting weather than college football. You can not be serious to think that even sick UF is going to fall to UK.

they may be "under the weather" but they will also be playing, at least long enough to build a lead that can be held on to. They were also sick last week against the Vols, a better team than the Cats.

Quoting hunkerdown:
they may be "under the weather" but they will also be playing, at least long enough to build a lead that can be held on to. They were also sick last week against the Vols, a better team than the Cats.

Until some team steps forward and stops Tim T-Bone, I am going with UF. This guy is a football player and it is going to take another football player or players to stop him.

Quoting hercj:
Until some team steps forward and stops Tim T-Bone, I am going with UF. This guy is a football player and it is going to take another football player or players to stop him.

ummm...you mean Superman.

Quoting IKE:


That's me.....

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.

Bring it on!

Very nice

Low pressure off NC coast is about to soak us....rain put out my fire last night, too.

Quoting hunkerdown:
ummm...you mean Superman.

yeah him too.

So doesn't these models show increasing strength over 5 days?

For those who have been bored by the season...as I get older I realize how GOOD boring can be --

Scores killed in Philippines floods

The government has decalred Manila and 25 other provinces to be in a "state of calamity" [AFP]

At least 40 people have been killed and 2,000 have fled their homes amid widespread flooding after tropical storm Ketsana lashed the Philippines.

Quoting Weather456:


true.

Still I don't understand how all this is good as some say. I mean without tropical cyclones, what's the point of coming to the blog, that's the main reason we are here right? So that we can get information, stimulate meaningful discussions and acquire skills in forecasting in the tropics. Yes hurricanes cause destruction when they meet land but its not up to us. Yes there is more to weather than the tropics so why is the blog crawling?

Never understood. But we should return to normal next year, hoping for all fish but again is not up to me.

True, it gets real boring when everything is quiet. Some exciting winter and tornado during the spring will help expand my skills at these fields.

I hate the cold. I think these are the best conditions.

65 degrees for a low
75 degrees for a high

Gator's will be having CAT dinner tonight....

Quoting Drakoen:


Very nice

Boynton Beach weather: Tuesday: high around 90, low 74; Wednesday: high 88, low 74...forecast to continue same the remainder of the week.

I was looking at the Red Bay,FL. radar, which is close to Panama City,FL. and it showed what appeared to be an egg over Tallahassee, home of the 2 loss Seminoles.

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
For those who have been bored by the season...as I get older I realize how GOOD boring can be --

Scores killed in Philippines floods

The government has decalred Manila and 25 other provinces to be in a "state of calamity" [AFP]

At least 40 people have been killed and 2,000 have fled their homes amid widespread flooding after tropical storm Ketsana lashed the Philippines.

Some call it "depressing" when it's slow. Thanks for putting things in perspective.

Quoting Dakster:
Gator's will be having CAT dinner tonight....

Yep, I agree with the post saying AL & Fl in the SEC. I do not think if UF stays healthy they get beat in the SEC.

Quoting Dakster:
Gator's will be having CAT dinner tonight....

but will the Hokies be eating stork...

UF had weaknesses exposed and upsets happen all the time in College football

ask USC, ask BYU, ask Oklahoma


I will stand by the pick, Kentucky over Florida today; its a longshot but considering the circumstances of UF not being healthy and the game being at Kentucky, it is set up perfect for an upset.

hunkerdown - Time will tell.

I am only optimistic because we have been playing well so far.

I doubt it will be a blow out for either side. Should be a good game.

Quoting Dakster:
hunkerdown - Time will tell.

I am only optimistic because we have been playing well so far.

I doubt it will be a blow out for either side. Should be a good game.

Game is on now, VT looks to be frying up some stork so far lol

Quoting IKE:
I was looking at the Red Bay,FL. radar, which is close to Panama City,FL. and it showed what appeared to be an egg over Tallahassee, home of the 2 loss Seminoles.




Some call it "depressing" when it's slow. Thanks for putting things in perspective.

Anytime, appreciate the comment, Ike. Weather is never boring somewhere (ha, coincidence, TWC just used the term "hurricane amnesia")! (Bet the Filipinos would have appreciated boring weather today, at least in retrospect.)