Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

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Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.

Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.

The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23°C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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431. Skyepony (Mod)
3:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2009


I we name this we need to start naming the extratropical warm-cores (at least warmer core than this) we see occasionally off Greenland... water & air temps have been too cold to call it tropical..it's not barely 60ºF outside when a STS passes over head.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37352
430. IKE
3:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
429. Chicklit
3:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Hey, check this out:
President Gloria Arroyo has declared a "state of calamity" throughout the island nation and ordered mass evacuations of six provinces.

Typhoon Parma is forecast to bring wind gusts gusts of over 200 kilometers per hour along with drenching rain likely to cause considerable flooding in the northern part of the Philippines.

Arroyo's declaration of emergency frees up funds to help the government respond to emergencies.

The commander of U.S. troops in the Pacific region, Admiral Timothy Keating, says two U.S. Navy ships with several hundred Marines on board are off the coast of Manila, ready to help after the typhoon passes. Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
428. Dakster
3:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting msphar:
Obviously some here are not aware of the realities of life in the PI.


Some here aren't aware of the realities of life period.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
427. Cavin Rawlins
3:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
If we extrapolate the QBO to next hurricane season, it will be in its westerly phase (positive), justifying an active hurricane season. The QBO is used mainly to predict seasonal activity but also the health and intensity of such systems.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
426. msphar
3:00 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Obviously some here are not aware of the realities of life in the PI.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
425. Bordonaro
2:37 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Simply amazing, ladies and gentleman. The Philippine Government will install their new Doppler Radar by 6-2011, YES 2011

Will some nation or American TV station DONATE one of their Doppler Systems!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
424. Cavin Rawlins
2:35 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
I added a few things to my blog

Blog Update

Another Subtropical Cyclone

Tropical Update

Typhoons Parma and Melor
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
423. Orcasystems
2:32 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting Bordonaro:


Thanks, Typhoon Melor has bypassed Guam/Saipan, however the Mariana Islands are getting hit pretty hard


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
422. Bordonaro
2:29 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting Magicchaos:
Guam Radar

Long Range Radar

You can see Melor's eye on the Long Range


Thanks, Typhoon Melor has bypassed Guam/Saipan, however the Mariana Islands are getting hit pretty hard
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
421. Cavin Rawlins
2:29 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Hmmm, seems like the NHC has someone that was against the 2002 decision to named these systems. This image justifies everything that is being said this morning and was taken just 45 minutes ago.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
420. Orcasystems
2:24 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Good article to watch with your morning coffee... simple everyday easy to understand explanation.

Cloud Seeding
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
418. CybrTeddy
2:19 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
The 90L in May will most likely be upgraded post-season, so we can ATLEAST at +1 to this year.

92L, the STS that hit New Jersey (with some of Erika in it) and now the 90L north of the Azores.. they've dropped the ball 4 times this year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
417. Magicchaos
2:17 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Guam Radar

Long Range Radar

You can see Melor's eye on the Long Range
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
416. CybrTeddy
2:16 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Anyone want to email the NHC regarding 90L? Seems like they've blatantly ignored it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
415. Bordonaro
2:11 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Good morning to everyone! Has there been any work out of he Phlippines concerning TY Parma? Any interesting radar snapshots from the Philippines or Saipan?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
414. TampaSpin
2:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
I'm out too......everyone have a good day!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
409. TampaSpin
1:47 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting barbamz:
397. TampaSpin, I think you're right. Shishaldin has been still very well shaped, when I last saw the webcam. Actually I refered to Mount Cleveland.


Cleveland i don't believe has any Webicoders on it currently.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
408. jurakantaino
1:45 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting P451:


I don't understand it either. They have been terrible this year on a number of systems - or according to them - non-systems.

I just don't get it.

Even simple things like putting a yellow circle around the sheared convection free mess just east of the Islands but not even talking about the stronger region east of that.

They've been terrible. I know everyone sung their praises on Bill but other than that everything else has really been a mess. From dropping the ball on 92 and 90 (I'd say one, and I forget which one, was absolutely to be named - the May one?) to Erika and Danny (claiming 50 and 60mph systems because of a few rain contaminated regions far removed from the center supporting such numbers) to this now.

Again, whoever is in charge this past year - of being the final word on everyone's work over there - needs to be canned.



Agree 100%.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
407. Cavin Rawlins
1:45 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting P451:


Better looking than Danny ever was. Yet Danny was a 60mph TS according to the NHC and this one is a deactivated invest.

Meh...whatever I guess. Accuracy and continuity is important however and they have failed to achieve this.


And its going to look bad on their part if post season analysis revealed these systems were in fact subtropical at their prime.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
406. TampaSpin
1:44 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
If you all remember tho.....redoubt became active and blew after a very strong quake in the same regions as what has just occured recently. So, if another Valcano was to blow in Alaskain chain, that would be a link to show where stress is released in one place, it is pushed and stress builds in another. Would also account for the recent activity in California.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
405. barbamz
1:44 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
397. TampaSpin, I think you're right. Shishaldin has been still very well shaped, when I last saw the webcam. Actually I refered to Mount Cleveland.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5646
404. AllStar17
1:44 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
I expect one more small burst of activity in the Atlantic for '09. I am dying to post graphics, but I have nothing to post them about....only the WPAC storms.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
402. jurakantaino
1:42 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting Cazatormentas:


And today as well............



Our attention above it:
Link
Muy buena informacion.It will be call a depression after post season analisis , the only reason NHC don't call it so, is because is under cold waters, i think.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
397. TampaSpin
1:34 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
I'm not sure Shishaldin has blowed its top....Could be a malfunction of the Webicorder. No report that i have found from AVO making any statement and that Webicorder has been doing that for some time.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
396. Ameister12
1:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting P451:
Good Morning. I see 90L, which really should be STS Grace, has made a come back. If anyone remembers the satellite image I posted yesterday it looked like a hurricane (I know it was not, but, it was at least a strong STS).

YESTERDAY:




TODAY:


Actually, 90L should be STS Henri. That Carolina low a couple months ago should be STS Grace.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898
394. Bryant193wx
1:32 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Good Shot of Parma .

- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
Member Since: October 27, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 44
393. presslord
1:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Storm...I got hold of a guy yesterday aafternoon....will know Monday...he works nfor a member of Congress and was pretty positive...nobody for him to talk with in the big five sided buildeing late yesterday....but his boss is on board...so I'm optimistic...sorry for not calling...got a big thing going on at work which kept me occupied 'till 11 last night...Thanks!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
392. Cavin Rawlins
1:29 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting StormW:
Speaking of STS's...I have my own thoughts on the matter, since there is such inconsistencies...for naming purposes, leave it to PURELY tropical systems. If a cold core transisitions to a purley tropical entity...name it...otherwise, put it in the Marine Forecast as a Gale Center.


very true, or give them separate designations
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
391. Cavin Rawlins
1:28 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
StormW,

When it made landfall along the Azores 1 October I think the SSTs were along the borderline of 23C but dropped (as you said) as it moved more towards the north on the 2nd and 3rd. Now the high res pics of 90L south of the Azores on 1 October did not seem to indicate any occluded fronts so 90L may of been a STS even before the comeback yesterday.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
388. Cavin Rawlins
1:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Blog Update

Another Subtropical Cyclone

Tropical Update

Typhoon Parma


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
387. Bryant193wx
1:21 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quiet in the Western Atlantic This Morning. Will These Upper Level Winds Weaken At All?

- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
Member Since: October 27, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 44
386. TampaSpin
1:21 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Quoting presslord:
Check out the Portlight WU Featured Blog...Stormjunkie is enroute to the Baxters ...you can watch it unfold live...plus...he's gonna eat a bunch of Krystals...

Link


Great job as always PressLord. Incredible service you provide for many. Hats off to you and John and others that work so hard. Gotta give PatRap his dues also. Thanks for all you do.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
384. TampaSpin
1:17 PM GMT on October 03, 2009

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
383. msphar
1:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Melor should be just past North of Saipan now. Wave heights 33 feet, Wind 120 Kt with gust to 145 Kt. Storm center is approx 100 - 150 miles north of the island. I have family on that island.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
382. presslord
1:11 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Check out the Portlight WU Featured Blog...Stormjunkie is enroute to the Baxters ...you can watch it unfold live...plus...he's gonna eat a bunch of Krystals...

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
381. atmoaggie
1:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Parma not really visible from Taiwan's radar. Anyone seeing a better radar? I cannot seem to find one for the Philippines.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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