Henri hanging on in the face of high wind shear

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on October 07, 2009

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Our second October surprise this week in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Henri, continues to defy 25 knots of wind shear. Henri has strengthened to a 50 mph tropical storm this morning, but wind shear is keeping the storm's heaviest thunderstorms confined to the southeast side of the circulation. Satellite loops show that Henri's low level center is exposed to view, and that the heavy thunderstorms may be retreating from the center, a sign that shear could be starting to rip the storm apart. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed Henri, and last night's pass showed winds of 40 - 45 mph.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Thursday, due to high wind shear. The official NHC forecast goes along with this scenario, and I'll go along, given the unanimity and persistence of the models in forecasting this. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, so we will have to be concerned with regeneration after Henri dissipates. It appears likely that moisture from Henri will affect Puerto Rico by Friday, the Dominican Republic on Saturday, and Haiti on Sunday. It is too early to tell if Henri's remains will be capable of causing flooding rains in these regions.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become more organized this morning. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Friday.

Pacific typhoons
In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma completed its second traverse of the Philippines' Luzon island, and has emerged over the Philippine Sea to the east of the country. Parma is expected to reverse course and cross Luzon a third time over the next three days. Parma is expected to dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain today on northern Luzon.

Typhoon Melor has weakened to a Category 2 typhoon with 100 mph winds, thanks to high wind shear and cool ocean waters. The typhoon should weaken to Category 1 strength before making landfall near 3am Japanese time on the main island of Honshu, just south of Osaka. Melor will probably bring sustained winds of 40 mph to Tokyo. You can follow the landfall of Melor with our interactive wundermap for the region. Several coastal locations are already reporting sustained winds near 40 mph.

Some tropical weather for England
The remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Grace made landfall in Southwest England last night. Grace's remains brought sustained winds of tropical storm force--41 mph--to one buoy off the coast, and 38 mph to the Sevenstones Lightship buoy.


Figure 2. The remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Grace scoots by to the south of Ireland in this visible satellite image taken at 1pm EDT 10/06/09. Image credit: UK Met Office.

I'll have an update late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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318. Cavin Rawlins
9:23 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
The SA America disturbance is moving wnw as it is nearer to 10N than earlier this morning. As I said this system has an excellent structure for a premature disturbed area and that is due to the excellent upper anticyclone over it. Should be watched but is not showing any significant signs as of now



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
317. IKE
9:22 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
316. Cavin Rawlins
9:18 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


You don't think the second one will suffer a bad case of Landfall interrputis? Or will it be far enough North to miss it?




My post was extended

Chances are this will move more west than north through the Caribbean. Everything is being determined by the deep layer ridge, even Henri potential track. I have noticed its rather south of 10N so it needs to pull north to prevent from interacting with SA. It is amazing that this may look like it will run into the continent then when you look its passing through the windwards, they normally turn just before 55W, so we will see.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
315. Cavin Rawlins
9:17 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Good evening all

Congrats Matt on the new job.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
314. markymark1973
9:06 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
RIP Henri. Enjoy the graveyard with Ana and Danny. Time to watch the area south of Henri. If it can gain more latitude and not crash into South America it might be a player down the road. It already looks better than Henri imo.
313. tornadodude
8:45 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

OMG! I just looked at pics quickly. If you don't have description on how it affected you and yours, please put it on your blog! If you already do, sorry, I'll read it later (canines staring, woeful eyes).


go walk the dogs (:

but the floods didnt do any damage to my house, but I did do alot of volunteer work around the county and helped clean up, pack buckets full of useful items for the victims, and helped with sandbagging etc. Loved helping those in need, it is a tremendous feeling knowing that there are people here for eachother, you know?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
312. AwakeInMaryland
8:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, I was in Daviess county at the time which had levees break. Pictures on my blog. Have fun on your walk

OMG! I just looked at pics quickly. If you don't have description on how it affected you and yours, please put it on your blog! If you already do, sorry, I'll read it later (canines staring, woeful eyes).
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
311. StormChaser81
8:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
There is NO NEW LLC under the convection, HENRI IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
310. tornadodude
8:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
So either way Henri gets knocked out
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309. StormChaser81
8:39 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
308. StormChaser81
8:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
WTNT45 KNHC 072032
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2009

HENRI IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALSO IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED WITH A
SECONDARY CENTER NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES. A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES GIVEN AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 35 KT...
BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SHEAR IS LIKELY FOR A DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE. IF HENRI SURVIVES THAT SHEAR...AN UPPER-TROUGH AXIS WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE THE KNOCKOUT BLOW TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

USING A MEAN MOTION OF THE TWO CENTERS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
290/12. A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH IS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
CAUSE HENRI...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...TO TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTH OF WEST UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES. THIS SOLUTION HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR BAM SHALLOW.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 19.4N 58.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 60.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 20.9N 62.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 09/0600Z 21.2N 63.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 09/1800Z 21.0N 66.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
307. StormChaser81
8:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
WTNT35 KNHC 072032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2009

...HENRI CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES...490 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND HENRI
COULD DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.4N 58.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
306. tornadodude
8:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Oh, yeah -- I don't know whether to make frownie or smiley face. I HATE flooding, stinky mold & mildew, pew-ie! But you can't choose your disasters and I'd get karmically creamed if I said I preferred tornadoes. And Ike & the Portlight crew would smack me, too.


exactly, but one or the other is bound to happen sometime. Definitely appreciate Portlight and what they do
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305. AwakeInMaryland
8:33 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


ha yeah, there is so much corn here. Was it June last year?

Oh, yeah -- I don't know whether to make frownie or smiley face. I HATE flooding, stinky mold & mildew, pew-ie! But you can't choose your disasters and I'd get karmically creamed if I said I preferred tornadoes. And Ike & the Portlight crew would smack me, too.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
304. tornadodude
8:33 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Oh wow, thanks. Yes, worst floods since '93 which were supposed to be the 100 year floods.
I'll read this when I get back from walking the canines that own me which I said I was going to do many posts back after temporarily murdering the blog (run-on sentence; college was a long long time ago).


Yeah, I was in Daviess county at the time which had levees break. Pictures on my blog. Have fun on your walk
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
303. AwakeInMaryland
8:30 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:
Indiana Floods of June 2008

Oh wow, thanks. Yes, worst floods since '93 which were supposed to be the 100 year floods.
I'll read this when I get back from walking the canines that own me which I said I was going to do many posts back after temporarily murdering the blog (run-on sentence; college was a long long time ago).
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
302. JLPR
8:26 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting StormChaser81:


I dont see a new LLC if you look at the place where the new LLC is suppose to be the convection is waning. I dont think there a new LLC.


doesn't seem to be waning, its where the strongest convection is, it seems the convection is going SW with that supposedly new center and it is where the best lower level convergence is according to CIMMS

I will wait till a quickscat to confirm anything :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
301. tornadodude
8:26 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Yes, one of my friends joked she'd have gotten lost in corn rows/fields without her GPS.
I was in Indianapolis and Wayne County last year because of floods -- great Emergency Manager and staff in Wayne County; the EM teaches upper level emergency ops/incident command.


ha yeah, there is so much corn here. Was it June last year?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
300. AwakeInMaryland
8:25 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


the past few years we have had so much rain, it is crazy, especially with all our crops here

Yes, one of my friends joked she'd have gotten lost in corn rows/fields without her GPS.
I was in Indianapolis and Wayne County last year because of floods -- great Emergency Manager and staff in Wayne County; the EM teaches upper level emergency ops/incident command.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
299. tornadodude
8:23 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Indiana Floods of June 2008
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298. StormChaser81
8:22 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting JLPR:
Matt you killed the blog xD

so now Henri has a new LLC, well that's going to change things a little


I dont see a new LLC if you look at the place where the new LLC is suppose to be the convection is waning. I dont think there is a new LLC.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
297. tornadodude
8:18 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Really tough year for Indiana, and they're getting little notice or help.


the past few years we have had so much rain, it is crazy, especially with all our crops here
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
296. AwakeInMaryland
8:17 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Really tough year for Indiana, and they're getting little notice or help. Midwesterners are too polite, IMO.

This is from the Chicago Tribune, Sept. 21, '09, and there were a lot of other articles about flooding around the same time.
(and then I'll go walk the dogs because I think I helped murder the blog):

Storm drops 6 inches of rain in S. Indiana county

Associated Press
September 21, 2009
CHARLESTOWN, Ind. -

As much as six inches of rain fell in parts of southern Indiana, flooding roads and parking lots where some people had to be helped from their cars.

State police say the water had largely receded Monday morning from the storms that raked the area near the Ohio River just north of Louisville, Ky., on Sunday.

The National Weather Service estimated 6 inches of rainfall in parts of Clark County and more than 4 inches in parts of Harrison and Crawford counties to the west.

No major damage or injuries were immediately reported.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
295. tornadodude
8:14 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting JLPR:
Matt you killed the blog xD

so now Henri has a new LLC, well that's going to change things a little


haha my bad :( must have been the snow!

but yeah, no doubt, forecast track should be interesting
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294. JLPR
8:13 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Matt you killed the blog xD

so now Henri has a new LLC, well that's going to change things a little
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293. tornadodude
8:04 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
292. tornadodude
8:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
252 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2009

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY BRINGING FLOODING TO LOW LYING AREAS...AND
NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS.
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291. Stormchaser2007
8:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
RAMMB now has a floater on the SA disturbance.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
290. tornadodude
7:50 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting Seastep:
As follow up, albeit, not the most organized coc.


way to kill the blog :P jk
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289. AwakeInMaryland
7:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
277. stormwatcherCI 7:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2009

Quoting WaterWitch11:

I can't remember what storm it was last year or the year before and it did a loop de loop and Chad Myers of CNN stated that no one could have predicted it but I fully remember it being said here on weatherunderground that it would happen. It just upsets me that people can not get truly accurate info from main stream media.
ok i'm done with my rant!

Maybe aHannah last year east of the Bahamas


Hmm, Fay in Florida was a royal pain with a ridiculous path, and we were dealing with Ike at the same time in Texas.

http://www.noaawatch.gov/2008/fay.php
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288. Seastep
7:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
As follow up, albeit, not the most organized coc.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
287. Seastep
7:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting ElConando:
I'm not buying that new center the convection is still drying to pull toward the old coc.


Not sure what level that swirl is at. Even if at the surface, ASCAT shows that there is a coc at around 18N/57W.
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286. ElConando
7:35 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
I'm not buying that new center the convection is still drying to pull toward the old coc.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
285. tornadodude
7:33 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting 789:
sounds like shear problems roflmao (congrates on job ) whats the remainder of the year forcast 6,2,1


LOL nice! thanks :P
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284. Stormchaser2007
7:33 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
283. tornadodude
7:32 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting Seastep:
Congrats on the job, tornadodude.


Thanks! (:
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282. 789
7:32 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


want some interesting stats about Purdue football this year?

We are 1-4.
We have scored more points than we have given up. (151-148)
Our last 4 games, we lost by a combined total of 18 points. by 2 to Oregon, by 7 to Northern Illinois, by 3 to Notre Dame, and by 6 to Northwestern.


so this season has been ridiculous lol
sounds like shear problems roflmao (congrates on job ) whats the remainder of the year forcast 6,2,1
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281. Seastep
7:31 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Congrats on the job, tornadodude.
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280. Stormchaser2007
7:29 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
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279. CaribBoy
7:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting Seastep:
25km ASCAT shows basically 18N/57W.

Link



Latest visible supports this location. Look
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278. TheCaneWhisperer
7:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Is it possible for these storms to Merge? Would the resulting system be stronger?

Mike


Only if the low center dissipates, otherwise they would rotate around a common center.
277. stormwatcherCI
7:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i can't remember what storm it was last year or the year before and it did a loop de loop and Chad Myers of CNN stated that no one could have predicted it but I fully remember it being said here on weatherunderground that it would happen. It just upsets me that people can not get truly accurate info from main stream media.
ok i'm done with my rant!
Maybe aHannah last year east of the Bahamas
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276. Seastep
7:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
25km ASCAT shows basically 18N/57W.

Link

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
275. tornadodude
7:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting iluvjess:


Yes sir. Several great matchups this Saturday. And lots of rainy weather to make it more fun.


want some interesting stats about Purdue football this year?

We are 1-4.
We have scored more points than we have given up. (151-148)
Our last 4 games, we lost by a combined total of 18 points. by 2 to Oregon, by 7 to Northern Illinois, by 3 to Notre Dame, and by 6 to Northwestern.


so this season has been ridiculous lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
274. Stormchaser2007
7:23 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
The wave near SA looks like it may be trouble in the next few days.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
273. BahaHurican
7:23 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Afternoon, all.

Had some phone problems the last few days that caused me not to be able to get online. Hopefully [crosses fingers] they are now solved.

I'm also hoping Henri keeps his rains to himself; it's been a bit hotter here than I particularly enjoy, but at the same time, I don't think we need another drenching.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21541
271. xcool
7:20 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
UPDATE BY:Jim Williams... Tropical storm Henri continues to battle high wind shear east of the Leeward Islands. The system is currently in a high shear environment but the shear could relax a bit and allow for some more development somewhere near or north of Puerto Rico by the weekend. The official forecast from NHC calls for dissipation within 48hrs due to inceased shear so which will happen? The thinking is that Henri will weaken & dissipate in the shear zone before finding a more favorable environment, only time will tell.
Another wave is east of the Windward Islands in a more favorable environment, so this could develop as well over the next couple of days.

http://hurricanecity.com/
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
270. tornadodude
7:17 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting Seastep:
Navy still disagrees with SSD/NHC on position.

As of 1703Z, they have it at 18.6N/56.6W. And keeping it at 45kts (50mph).


I kind of agree with the Navy on this, but who knows. This storm reminds me way to much of Erika right now
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
269. NOLALawyer
7:16 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Looks like AOI to the SW is trying to absorb the MLC of Henri.


Is it possible for these storms to Merge? Would the resulting system be stronger?

Mike
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
268. iluvjess
7:16 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


this blog will be crazy, lots of smack talk im sure ;)


Yes sir. Several great matchups this Saturday. And lots of rainy weather to make it more fun.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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