Henri being torn apart by shear
Tropical Storm Henri is getting ripped apart by wind shear, and is much less organized than it was early this morning. About 25 knots of wind shear continues to eat into storm, and visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are steadily moving away from the center--all signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.
All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Thursday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, so we will have to be concerned with regeneration after Henri dissipates. It appears likely that moisture from Henri will affect Puerto Rico by Friday night, the Dominican Republic on Saturday, and Haiti on Sunday. It is too early to tell if Henri's remains will be capable of causing flooding rains in these regions.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become more organized this afternoon. The thunderstorm activity has grown more concentrated near 8N 50W, with a hint of some low-level spiral banding starting to form. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave will suffer from interaction with the coast of South America on Thursday. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Friday.
Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor has made landfall on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. Hamamatsu reported sustained winds of 54 mph last hour, and tropical storm force wind gusts will be common along much of the south coast of Honshu as the typhoon passes. You can follow the landfall of Melor with our interactive wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 — Blog Index
People who are from 'that camp' will read the whole thing and believe it, regardless of the credentials of the person who wrote it. They'll also click on a link to read more and spare others the annoyance of blog clog.
Unfortunately beer does not hydrate :(
But I like both takes on Henri :)
It's like being in a pressure cooker. What happened to the cold fronts? The end of summer?
It is fall, ya know. And yeah, I moved from Connecticut to Florida 25 years ago but not to escape fall and Indian Summer, my favorite part of the year up north. Anyway, looks like Henri's shadow wave has withered some this morning and he's not lookin' too well either. Interesting to see if anything stirs up in the SW Caribbean. Glad to hear of no tsunami reports after yesterday's quakes.
Have a good day, everyone.
PensacolaDoug, that was one of the most useless AND misleading posts I've seen on here in a very long time - and that's really saying something..
Back to lurking.
A link would be sufficient :)
Yes...back to weather before the you-know-what crowd shows up.
Someone always has to turn it into a personal attack. Sheesh.
THURSDAY 7:15 A.M.
IT'S DRY AIR VS. DYING SHEAR.
The upper outflow pattern over Henri will reverse the next 2-3 days, but the question is does it have the moxie to fight dry air that is now becoming stronger looking on the water vapor loop. The developing ridge off the south Atlantic coast is a big one and the outflow level winds do become favorable, but all the warming aloft is not being done because of warm, moist, rising air, but sinking from the high levels and drying out. It's not dissimilar to what finally destroyed Ana, the first storm of the season.
However, it is later in the year, and that means the overall atmosphere in this part of the world is close to its max as far as heat and moisture. This is certainly the strongest 500 mb ridge we have seen this year.
The track of Henri, should it survive, is one that could bring it into the Florida Straits early next week.
It will be very interesting to see if an end game that names a couple of more storms in the areas we saw them get named late in 1969 has implications on the winter season. Both 1969 and 2002 and the most activity later, rather than earlier, in the hurricane season and I think this may be an indicator of the more neutral overall global signal rather than an El Nino signal. I will point out, that the MEI along with my scale has DECREASED over the past month. A look at the enso outlook by NOAA shows large scale COOLING in the Pacific. All of this was part of the idea of this Nino being limited and taking off as the climate models said. Let's remember what happened with those models okay. 1) They did not predict this nino from six months out and only caught on AFTER I had declared a done deal, in March (I started saying in January it was in the works, but review of my ideas indicated the hammer did not drop until after the early March snowstorm as the February/March pattern mimicked the 1969 strat warm event with the tropospheric pattern) Now let's look at the forecast from two months ago. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200908/imag es/nino34SSTSea.gif
September, October and November were supposed to be plus 1.5 through yesterday, nino 3.4 for the last five weeks has been only plus .75. I rather doubt the rest of the period through November will jump to plus 2.25.
Remember the forecast here before this came on was a weak to borderline moderate El Nino that was a reaction to the overall pattern, not the driver of the pattern. I want that made clear even if I have to say it again and again because there is a way one can show some skill in forecasting this. It is also part of my agenda to hammer models not to diminish their use as tools but to expose their ruse as fools for those that wish to make them their GODS.. 1 day, 1 month 1 year, 1 decade 1 century from now.
I used to work with a great met here at AccuWeather, Norm "Rabbi" Burnstein, who used to look at forecast models and say they were lines on a piece of paper. The wisdom of the "Rabbi" holds true today... except they are on computer screens.
Shalom for now. ****
And those poor guys in Billings MT had a couple of ft of snow on monday -
Just wish we could all get along and share a little with each other.....
http://www.denverpost.com/extremes/ci_13498572
There's a lot more coming to billings MT.
The west can use the water next spring!
Viewing: 851 - 871
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 — Blog Index