Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:27 PM GMT on October 18, 2009

Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970. Meteorologists like to talk about a hurricane's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the theoretical upper limit of a hurricane's intensification given the prevailing ocean heat content and atmospheric stability and moisture. Less than 5% of all hurricane reach their MPI, due to wind shear, interaction with land, entrainment of dry air, or other factors. Hurricane Rick was able to take advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification--light wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of 2006, which also had 180 mph winds. Only nine Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history have been stronger than Rick.

Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb.

Wind shear will gradually increase and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category 2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model. More rapid weakening into a Category 1 hurricane is also a distinct possibility, and the official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 2 forecast at landfall is a good middle-of-the-road forecast. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Thursday, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Saturday, possibly leading to heavy rains there next weekend.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major catastrophe for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit is stalled out over the Philippine Sea east of northern Luzon Island in the Philippines, but is expected to resume a westerly track towards the Philippines on Monday. Depending upon whether the storm makes landfall in northern Luzon or not, Lupit (the Filipino word for cruel) has the potential to live up to its name if it makes landfall as a major typhoon on Thursday, as currently forecast. A week ago, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit would bring another 12+ inches of rain to the already-soaked soils of the region, creating a major catastrophe. However, there is hope that storm's current slow and erratic movement will carry Lupit far enough north that the typhoon will miss the Philippines.

Early snow in Northeast U.S. sets records
This weekend's snowstorm in the Northeast set records for the earliest date with an inch of snow in Binghamton, Ithaca and Olean in New York and Altoona and State College in Pennsylvania. State College received 4.8 inches of snow from the storm, and snow amounts as high as ten inches were recorded in the surrounding mountains.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters

Pink Snow (CecileWNC)

The first dusting of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains today!

The Snowy Poconos (robin57)

Woke up and saw SNOW everywhere ....it is too early but we have to make the best out of the situation and I did just that ...I went picture taking today ENJOY my friends So i hope you like my have fall half winter photo

Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center (SoggyWaffles)

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352. nrtiwlnvragn 9:50 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Offshore Waters Forecast AMZ089-190330- SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W 530 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009 .SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL BELIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SE AND REACH EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER EARLY MON...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND SHIFT NW THROUGH WED AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE ALONG 80/81W WILL MERGE WITH COLD FRONT ACROSS NW AND FAR SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AND CARVE OUT ELONGATED LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 82W...WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS TROUGH. TROUGH TO DRIFT N TO NW THROUGH THU. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W S OF 13N WILL ENTER SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...MOVE W ACROSS SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED AND REACH SW CARIBBEAN LATE WED NIGHT. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8943

353. BurnedAfterPosting 9:50 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Weather456: At the time the NAM was calling for development, it was calling for a tropical storm on Tuesday. In addition, the ECMWF has been hinting development before the NAM. This still does not qualify the NAM as reliable when it comes to the tropics and is hardly any support to the ECMWF. My main argument was the NAM is unreliable when it comes to the tropics and if one was trying to assess the likelihood of development, I would look elsewhere, like the ECMWF. While I understand what you are saying, what many of us that even look at the NAM notice is where it develops clusters of convection; whether it is a storm or not it is depicting is irrelevant. I have seen many times where it has shown consistent convection and that convection eventually became a system.

354. jipmg 9:51 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Rick down to 160mph

355. kmanislander 9:51 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
The NAM was certainly too fast in spinning up the low and I said so yesterday morning. This time of year cyclogenesis usually takes several days to get going. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

356. Cavin Rawlins 9:51 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting kmanislander: I figured it wouldn't take long for you to make a statement like that LOL. lol, Its not you, its the model, I literally hate it when it comes to the tropics. I strongly believe it should be limited in such cases. Children are to seen not heard, lol. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

357. tornadodude 9:52 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: Which part of the US are you from, kManIslander? maybe the Cayman Islands..... Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

358. kmanislander 9:52 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: Which part of the US are you from, kManIslander? No part. I live on Grand Cayman. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

359. xcool 9:54 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

361. Cavin Rawlins 9:55 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
kmanislander, regardless of the model it seems like something is heading your way, and it look good if the models do verify. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

362. kmanislander 9:55 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Looks like the front will be through here soon. So far only high cloud. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

363. IKE 9:55 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting KoritheMan: Not that there's anything wrong with it if he is, but is Meteorology101 JFV? I didn't think so until this afternoon. Now I do. Not that it matters, but....has WeatherStudent posted this afternoon? Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

364. ElConando 9:55 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
dear lord he did it again ugh.... Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

365. kmanislander 9:56 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: Neat, I didn't know that, how's life in paradise? Rat race Mon thru Fri. Paradise on weekends ! Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

366. tornadodude 9:56 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting IKE: I didn't think so until this afternoon. Now I do. Not that it matters, but....has WeatherStudent posted this afternoon? same here Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

367. KoritheMan 9:56 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: Hi, whose JFV? He's someone with a fairly notorious reputation on here. He's come under several different handles, such as JFV, KeyWestMan, WeatherStudent, and PresidentialElection. He quickly annoyed most of the bloggers here, even though I don't really mind him. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

369. KoritheMan 9:57 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting IKE: I didn't think so until this afternoon. Now I do. Not that it matters, but....has WeatherStudent posted this afternoon? I'm not sure. I actually just got here ten minutes ago, so... Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

370. IKE 9:58 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting tornadodude: same here This post convinced me... 323. Meteorology101 4:27 PM CDT on October 18, 2009 Hide this comment. G'afternoon, Weather! An impeccably extraordiarily accurate written prognostication there, my friend. You're definitely very much on the money with that call, right there. Congrats for it. No wonder why Dr. Masters recognizes you on his blog from time to time, geeze, your really worth it, that's why, obviously. Anyways, I see that your B.A Degree in Meteorology serves you well. However, a quick question, how come you didn't touch much upon the system's futuristic strength forecast? Although I'm sure that you had your reasons as to why you did so. LOL, :) Too much of a coincidence. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

371. kmanislander 9:58 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Weather456: kmanislander, regardless of the model it seems like something is heading your way, and it look good if the models do verify. I think you are right that something will come of this. I have been concerned since late August that with the slow season we could get a Cat 3 or worse coming up from down that way. I am keeping my fingers crossed that does not happen. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

372. xcool 9:59 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

374. KoritheMan 9:59 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting IKE: This post convinced me... 323. Meteorology101 4:27 PM CDT on October 18, 2009 Hide this comment. G'afternoon, Weather! An impeccably extraordiarily accurate written prognostication there, my friend. You're definitely very much on the money with that call, right there. Congrats for it. No wonder why Dr. Masters recognizes you on his blog from time to time, geeze, your really worth it, that's why, obviously. Anyways, I see that your B.A Degree in Meteorology serves you well. However, a quick question, how come you didn't touch much upon the system's futuristic strength forecast? Although I'm sure that you had your reasons as to why you did so. LOL, :) Too much of a coincidence. Yeah, that post is what made me wonder. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

375. ElConando 10:00 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
370. I didn't need any other post to convince me either :P. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

376. IKE 10:00 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: My godness, I see. Why does he do such things? Is he, what most of you guys on here would call a ''troll''? Remember, I'm new and I'm trying to learn, so do help me out, lol. Thanks. Give it up. We know who you are. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

378. KoritheMan 10:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: My godness, I see. Why does he do such things? Is he, what most of you guys on here would call a ''troll''? Remember, I'm new and I'm trying to learn, so do help me out, lol. Thanks. Yeah, he's largely considered a troll. While I'm still not completely certain that you aren't JFV, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, since coincidences do happen. In any case, even if you do turn out to be JFV, I won't care. Very few people annoy me. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

379. ElConando 10:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
And here we go, 2 weeks worth of this until he gives up, standard procedure people. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

380. kmanislander 10:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting IKE: Give it up. We know who you are. LOL Busted ?? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

381. Cavin Rawlins 10:02 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting KoritheMan: He's someone with a fairly notorious reputation on here. He's come under several different handles, such as JFV, KeyWestMan, WeatherStudent, and PresidentialElection. He quickly annoyed most of the bloggers here, even though I don't really mind him. WS use to ask only certain bloggers questions, like myself, Drakoen, SW, kman and others. Persons use to get annoyed by his questions even though they were not directed towards them which is unfair to the dude. I have often told him, in order to be respected on the blog, you have to develop a respectable swag. For example, always alluding to a strong storm heading towards FL. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

383. tornadodude 10:03 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: No I am not. you go to FSU right? Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

384. PcolaDan 10:03 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Had it figured out last night. Didn't take long. And after being on here about 5 minutes, has become real obvious. hmmmmmmm Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

385. ElConando 10:03 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Its incredible how much his personality shows up in his typing. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

386. kmanislander 10:04 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
I do miss the shower curtain though. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

387. Cavin Rawlins 10:05 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
I also suspect people have him on ignore for the wrong reasons. Usually you put someone on ignore for disrupting the blog not because you have some unrelated bias against him. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

389. IKE 10:05 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: No I am not. Funny, that's what WeatherStudent said when folks were accusing him of being JFV. Quoting ElConando: Its incredible how much his personality shows up in his typing. The same way you can tell when tacoman posted. His style of typing and talking had stormno/stormtop written all over it. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

390. aquak9 10:06 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Heck I figured it out last friday, I think. What kind of shower curtain ya got in your FSU dorm, there? Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

392. IKE 10:07 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
It's okay JFV/WS....you will not be sent behind bars. Just a weather blog. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

393. aquak9 10:07 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
The same way you can tell when tacoman posted. His style of typing and talking had stormno/stormtop written all over it. Ike, do you mean taco2me61? That's not stormtop. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

395. IKE 10:08 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting aquak9: The same way you can tell when tacoman posted. His style of typing and talking had stormno/stormtop written all over it. Ike, do you mean taco2me61? That's not stormtop. No...not him. tacoman. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

397. KoritheMan 10:08 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting Weather456: WS use to ask only certain bloggers questions, like myself, Drakoen, SW, kman and others. Persons use to get annoyed by his questions even though they were not directed towards them which is unfair to the dude. I have often told him, in order to be respected on the blog, you have to develop a respectable swag. For example, always alluding to a strong storm heading towards FL. The reason, I think, a lot of JFV's questions annoy the bloggers here is not necessarily because he has questions -- it's the nature of his questions. He asks things that cannot be known even by the most skilled meteorologists. With that in mind, I can easily see why he gets under the skin of most of the bloggers here. Given that he is supposedly studying at university for meteorology, he should have the knowledge to realize that the questions he asks are of the impossible nature. This indicates that he does what he does primarily for attention -- and he gets it. Again, he doesn't annoy me, but I definitely understand the frustration constantly directed towards him. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

398. kmanislander 10:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
"the agitated tides of controversy " ROFLMAO You gotta love this stuff. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

399. Chicklit 10:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting tornadodude: you go to FSU right? You have to be smart to go to FSU Matt not dumb and dumber... Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

400. aquak9 10:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
the agitated tides of controversy OMG that is SO CLASSIC Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

401. aquak9 10:10 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
Quoting IKE: No...not him. tacoman. sorry, Ike, my mistake. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

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