Rick weakens; Lupit headed to the Philippines; Western Caribbean brewing a storm?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2009

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Hurricane Rick has weakened significantly over the past 24 hours, thanks to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Although still a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, this is a far cry from the spectacular Category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds and 905 mb pressure Rick was early Sunday morning. At that time, Rick was the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick just after peak intensity at 17:55 UTC October 18, 2009. A this time, Rick was a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Recent microwave satellite imagery suggests that wind shear may have eaten away the southwest portion of Rick's eyewall, allowing dry air to intrude into the core of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters will visit Rick this afternoon to learn more, and I suspect Rick is weaker than the Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds that is currently advertised.

Wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, in the 24 hours before landfall, and ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches Baja. The latest GFDL and HWRF model runs put Rick at Category 1 strength at its closest approach to Baja, and this appears to be a reasonable forecast given the current appearance of Rick. NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip a 20% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds from Rick. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Wednesday night, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Friday, possibly leading to heavy rains there on Friday and Saturday.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major disaster for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit has begun its turn to the west over the Philippine Sea, and is headed towards a landfall early Thursday morning on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Thanks to the departure of a trough of low pressure that was pulling the super typhoon to the northeast and creating a region of weak steering currents, a strong ridge of high pressure is now building in over Lupit and will force it slightly south of due west. The models are all in excellent agreement on the forecast track taking the super typhoon over northern Luzon as a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon, and Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel--is very likely to live up to its name. The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Super Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Tuesday 10/20/09. Lupit is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain (orange colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean is too low (20 kJ/cm^2) to permit much additional intensification over the next two days, but in the final 12 hours before landfall, the total oceanic heat content will rise to 80 kJ/cm^2, which should allow Lupit to retain at least Category 3 strength right up until landfall, despite interaction of the storm with land. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.


Figure 3 Morning visible satellite image of the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Floodman:


OMG...you're kidding, right?


...wish I were...
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Afternoon. Been busy the last several days but the area in the SW Caribbean looking interesting...You can see it starting to break off from the frontal Trof so will be interesting to see what happens with sheer levels down there over the next 72 hours.
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Look at 300 hours..

The isobars are a bit stretching more eastward into the WC. A broad area of disturbed weather on that time frame, no low.

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Quoting reedzone:
I'm still looking at a good chance for a Tropical System to form within the next week out of the area in the Carribean. Folks in the Islands like Jamaica, Cayman Islands need to really watch what happens. Shear is expected to drop by Friday as Masters has said. I agree with his analysis in saying 60% chance for formation. Go ahead, call me a wishcaster, I'm going by obs.
Quoting scottsvb:


they wont put a yellow cause yellow means slight chance within 72hrs... its pretty much a 5% chance right now

No, that's wrong. The idiot colors only go out 48 hours. So, the NHC will only put out a color if they think that there's some probability of formation within 48 hours. Even if the models indicate a hurricane in 72 or 96 hours, you don't even get a yellow if they expect no chance of formation in the next 48 hours. That's the main reason I dislike the idiot colors.
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Area of low pressure is off-shore:

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Quoting presslord:
OK...this is not weather related...but it is Portlight related (not specifically disaster relief...but other things we work on)...and it's pretty funny...but not immediately evident...

first one to catch the irony wins...don't cheat...
Link


OMG...you're kidding, right?
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Copied for posterity, and before it could be deleted. :)

974. Meteorology101 4:48 AM GMT on October 19, 2009
OK......alright.......alright.....I'll confess it. I'm JFV, and I regrettably apologies for lying and for fOoling everyone, yet again.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
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Quoting Orcasystems:
No HH reports since they CHOP'ed over :(



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI
Humor in Comments


You have to switch over to the Pacific Recon page. It also has a google earth link.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276
Quoting IKE:


Where? Look at 276 hours...it's in the east PAC...



IKE I said 300 hours, after 264 hours. the remnants of that low is moving a bit eastward after that time frame.
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137. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


Actually, the system weakens and broadens out. Then moves east in to the Carribean and GOM as a broad area of disturbed weather around 300 hours.


Where? Look at 276 hours...it's in the east PAC...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
It seems some more of the models are hinting at development in the Caribbean. The ECMWF back on board, albeit weaker than some of it's other runs. CMC has the low meandering before organizing, the GFS the same but slower.
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Quoting IKE:


????

At 264 hours...



Actually, the system weakens and broadens out. Then moves east in to the Carribean and GOM as a broad area of disturbed weather around 300 hours.
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133. IKE
Quoting jipmg:


then brings it back into the carribean later on


????

At 264 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting reedzone:
OK, first of all, I wasn't saying it was gonna develop today, was just pointing out that there is indications of banding on the northeast side, pretty much from the anticyclonic flow. It will take a few days for something to get going, I just think it needs at least a yellow circle for low potential, my opinion that is.


they wont put a yellow cause yellow means slight chance within 72hrs... its pretty much a 5% chance right now
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Quoting presslord:
OK...this is not weather related...but it is Portlight related (not specifically disaster relief...but other things we work on)...and it's pretty funny...but not immediately evident...

first one to catch the irony wins...don't cheat...
Link


That is funny!!!
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Quoting Meteorology101:


For what?
The link I wanted him to see is the computer model NAM. It is showing a low moving W-NW through the Bahamas.
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No HH reports since they CHOP'ed over :(



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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128. jipmg
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS @ 180 hours takes a low in the extreme southern Caribbean into the eastern-PAC....



then brings it back into the carribean later on
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Quoting tornadodude:


ha cant get the wheelchair up the stairs :P


Bingo!
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Ahh yes, I do love me a Monday...LOL

"Monday Monday....can't trust that day...

Monday Monday...sometimes it just turns out that way...."
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Quoting presslord:
OK...this is not weather related...but it is Portlight related (not specifically disaster relief...but other things we work on)...and it's pretty funny...but not immediately evident...

first one to catch the irony wins...don't cheat...
Link


ha cant get the wheelchair up the stairs :P
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123. IKE
12Z GFS @ 180 hours takes a low in the extreme southern Caribbean into the eastern-PAC....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK...this is not weather related...but it is Portlight related (not specifically disaster relief...but other things we work on)...and it's pretty funny...but not immediately evident...

first one to catch the irony wins...don't cheat...
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


..The Day is young and well,balloons are cheap.


ROTFLMAO
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OK, first of all, I wasn't saying it was gonna develop today, was just pointing out that there is indications of banding on the northeast side, pretty much from the anticyclonic flow. It will take a few days for something to get going, I just think it needs at least a yellow circle for low potential, my opinion that is.
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Quoting Meteorology101:


For what?
The link I wanted him to see is the computer model NAM. It is showing a low moving W-NW through the Bahamas.
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Quoting IKE:


Yes it's him....again.

Doing fine for a Monday.

How about yourself?


Ahh yes, I do love me a Monday...LOL
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Im well versed on today's latest imagery.

Cyclogenesis takes time.





And right now,, the time is well spent observing and watching a AOI.

The sky is NOT falling.



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Quoting hydrus:
The link I wanted him to see is the computer model NAM. It is showing a low moving W-NW through the Bahamas.


...me, too...
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Quoting reedzone:
I am very confused on why the NHC hasn't at least issued a yellow circle on the area in the Western Carribean. They need to issue it soon, I already see some slight indication of banding on the northeast side of the disturbance.



Why?

The NHC has a protocol .
They dont need Hobbyists paving the road for them.

The weather dont blog,read,nor have ears last I checked.
There is no threat...at this time.
Any formation will take days..if it occurs at all.

A circle on a CG Map changes nothing.

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High pressure drifting off to the southeast of Indiana will bring a southwesterly flow of warmer air into the area. Temperatures by Tuesday are expected to reach the middle 60s. Despite the fact that these temperatures will feel quite mild compared to a few days ago, they represent highs typical for the middle of October.
from NWS
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Quoting Meteorology101:


For what?
The link I wanted him to see is the computer model NAM. It is showing a low moving W-NW through the Bahamas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am very confused on why the NHC hasn't at least issued a yellow circle on the area in the Western Carribean. They need to issue it soon, I already see some slight indication of banding on the northeast side of the disturbance.

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Quoting IKE:


I feel sorry for the children. Imagine the grief they will go through at school. The way kids are about teasing.


The kids at school in his grade are 6 years old too. They'll forget quickly, heck I doubt they can comprehend it or know it. LOL they may think his parents are "cool". I get what your saying though.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3782
...weather balloon...
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Quoting tornadodude:


ha already admitted it last night, I'm trying to have more patience for him, you know, trying to give him another shot


I gave up on him since he was JFV, i'm to think hes 14 years old right now starting as JFV at around 12.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3782
105. IKE
Quoting ElConando:


Strange story it was, shameful those parents are


I feel sorry for the children. Imagine the grief they will go through at school. The way kids are about teasing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I'm still looking at a good chance for a Tropical System to form within the next week out of the area in the Carribean. Folks in the Islands like Jamaica, Cayman Islands need to really watch what happens. Shear is expected to drop by Friday as Masters has said. I agree with his analysis in saying 60% chance for formation. Go ahead, call me a wishcaster, I'm going by obs.
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Quoting IKE:


At least he isn't pulling a hoax with a helium balloon and getting his kids involved in it.


Strange story it was, shameful those parents are
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3782
100. IKE
Quoting Patrap:


..The Day is young and well,balloons are cheap.


LOL...true.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Patrap:


..The Day is young and well,balloons are cheap.


LMAO
Quoting Meteorology101:


My apologies, sir. I take everything back that I had said to you. plz forgive mw, i'll greatly value your ecpertise from now on


lol its no problem weather student..I guess you forgot that you told me you were changing your tag so drak and others wont come down on you 1 month ago (abouts)..
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Quoting IKE:


At least he isn't pulling a hoax with a helium balloon and getting his kids involved in it.


..The Day is young and well,balloons are cheap.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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