Rick weakens; Lupit headed to the Philippines; Western Caribbean brewing a storm?
Hurricane Rick has weakened significantly over the past 24 hours, thanks to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Although still a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, this is a far cry from the spectacular Category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds and 905 mb pressure Rick was early Sunday morning. At that time, Rick was the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970.
Figure 1.Hurricane Rick just after peak intensity at 17:55 UTC October 18, 2009. A this time, Rick was a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Recent microwave satellite imagery suggests that wind shear may have eaten away the southwest portion of Rick's eyewall, allowing dry air to intrude into the core of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters will visit Rick this afternoon to learn more, and I suspect Rick is weaker than the Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds that is currently advertised.
Wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, in the 24 hours before landfall, and ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches Baja. The latest GFDL and HWRF model runs put Rick at Category 1 strength at its closest approach to Baja, and this appears to be a reasonable forecast given the current appearance of Rick. NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip a 20% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds from Rick. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Wednesday night, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Friday, possibly leading to heavy rains there on Friday and Saturday.
Typhoon Lupit a potential major disaster for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit has begun its turn to the west over the Philippine Sea, and is headed towards a landfall early Thursday morning on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Thanks to the departure of a trough of low pressure that was pulling the super typhoon to the northeast and creating a region of weak steering currents, a strong ridge of high pressure is now building in over Lupit and will force it slightly south of due west. The models are all in excellent agreement on the forecast track taking the super typhoon over northern Luzon as a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon, and Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel--is very likely to live up to its name. The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing.
Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Super Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Tuesday 10/20/09. Lupit is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain (orange colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean is too low (20 kJ/cm^2) to permit much additional intensification over the next two days, but in the final 12 hours before landfall, the total oceanic heat content will rise to 80 kJ/cm^2, which should allow Lupit to retain at least Category 3 strength right up until landfall, despite interaction of the storm with land. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.
Figure 3 Morning visible satellite image of the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean.
A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index
Ever since its extraordinary performance with Bill, I've been giving a lot of credence to the ECMWF. We'll see.
yea same here, outside of the one model run that completely dropped development, it has been consistent in developing the system and bringing it northward
93L is born
whoa wait lol, they put it on the area in the CATL, unless that is a mistake
well it is tomorrow. as suggested :P. onward to more blob watching.
nvm lol maybe is Grace BAP????
again unless they made a mistake
shows the system weaker, but track still somewhat similar
so that is now 5 out of 6 that take it over Florida
*Tropical Storm Neki (45 mph)
*Tropical Storm Rick (65 mph)
*Typhoon Lupit (110 mph/95 mph)
-Typhoon Lupit's sustained winds both in 1 minute and 10 minute sustained.
Anybody notice that area between 20N, 30N, 40W, and 50W? Obvious sign of MJO uptick....
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ramil (Lupit) located at 20.4ºN 129.4ºE or 750 kms east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (105 kts) with gustiness up to 230 km/h (125 kts).
Signal Warnings
================
Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)
Luzon Region
-----------
1.Batanes Gr of Islands
2.Cagayan
3.Calayan Island
4.Babuyan Islands
5.Isabela
Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)
Luzon Region
------------
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.Apayao
4.Abra
5.Kalinga
6.Mt. Province
7.Benguet
8.La Union
9.Ifugao
10.Nueva Vizcaya
11.Quirino
12.Aurora
13.Northern Quezon
14.Polillo Island
Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
we have an invest?
it's not what we
expected
Will we ever get some rest...
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN INDICATING VARYING
DEGREES OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN WITH A
WELL DEFINED SYSTEM TRACKING OVER OR NEAR FL. REMAINING GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HINTING A LITTLE MORE AT SUCH A SYSTEM NOW BUT AT A
MUCH SLOWER SPEED THAN ECMWF RUNS. EARLY PRELIM FCST MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH YDAYS TPC/HPC COORDINATION THAT KEEPS ANY ACTIVITY
OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN THRU DAY 7 TUE.
HPC Preliminary Graphics
7 days(LOL).
Will this blog survive 7 days of a spin in the NW Caribbean?
no, we can't handle it.
Whats the latest on blob watch, oh and also TY Lupit? Has Lupit found his world map yet?
I still have to live thru it, it's only 6:30am here.
Ida'know...no one does.
It will, but get your stash of popcorn and sodas ready. If people would just use the ignore function between their ears and agree to disagree. I have seen it happen occasionally.
Well, at least it should keep "climate change" talk to a minimum on this blog.
Headin to town this mornin. Will pick up a big stash of microwave popcorn.
You're right. Great news!
Blog Update
Atlantic tropics liven up
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM HAITI TO CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS NICARAGUA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W WILL ENTER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE MORNING AND WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED AND THE E CARIBBEAN LATE
THU.
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER SE U.S. WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC
THROUGH FRI. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW GULF THU
EVENING AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
FRI MORNING AND FROM NW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT.
lol, if the low moves northwest from its current position, it would be located just NE of Honduras/Nicaragua tip.
Was Tuesday a good day, well, not really. Almost got stuck in my car on my way to work due to back spasms. I am currently sitting on my butt at work.
I am preying that Lupit does what Parma did just before it got to the Philippines, have it's circulation disrupted by the high mountains of Northern Luzon.
Blog Update
Atlantic tropics liven up
Good Morning/evening Sir
Interesting how 00Z ECMWF speed up development into a sheared type system which is typical for this time of the year too.
IF it were to develop, I would expect it to be a TD in the Carib. with a transition to a weak TS as it enters the SE GOM... but due to land interaction... I don't expect much.
Unless it somehow manages to intensify more than expected before it enters the SE GOM.
That's my take on it.
Its all on my blog, time frame for u guys is 5 days, they maybe a bit sooner or later depending on what it does. At most for u guys, a TS, I'm conservative though, so monitor the situation.
Viewing: 1001 - 1051
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index