A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.
Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.
Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.
Jeff Masters
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TD 23
Ketsana 25th Sept 2009
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.
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Humor in Comments
Moved a little further south than the one you posted last night. Anything new on the strength?
Thats what i mean by looking worse, Same strength on land fall. Cat 3
oh my, not again, that is the last thing they need
LOL thanks
G'morning, I need some help with time zones...should ask for a world clock for Xmas.
9 am Tuesday JST = what time EDT?
I'm sure there's a website that does the time calculations so if someone knows and will link or send it to me, I promise to bookmark and not bother the blog again.
Hi, T-Dude & Grothar...that makes 3 of us not banned...yet...wonder if we'll see our other partners in blog misdemeanors!
haha good morning, I think we should all be clear, I hope :P
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/
Link
hey there
THANK YOU, Aussie! Great timing. I will see if Guam friends are online and what they have to say.
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHRE) WARNING NR 002
WTPN32 PGTW 260900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHRE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 149.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.4N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.1N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.5N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.7N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.9N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.4N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 149.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
that is Japanese standard time, just take GMT and add 9 hours.
ha Aussie already did
Ummm not.. you might have forgot the international date line :)
who needs that ;)
And again, thanks, Aussie, you rock.
Oh, good, GeoffreyWPB, I was most worried about you...poor turkeys. I will be sending the turkey and friends video you linked onward as my Thanksgiving greeting this year. My sick friends will appreciate it. (:
(T-Dude's backwards smile.)
Tokyo
Good Morning and Thank you, too, StormW, appreciate it.
lol....i'm off to run some errands. You all have a great day :( :)
Good morning Taz, Dr Masters thinks that in 10-14 days the W Caribbean Sea might be able to support a Tropical system.
However, yes, this ATL Hurricane season is pretty much winding down to its end very quietly!
As you can see,the people are great on this site,ask a question or help,and everyone jumps in with help or suggestions.
Uh, I see we are better, eh! Look at my link in #35. lol.
haha gotta love it (:
Time Zones
World Time Map and Clock:
Link
Your welcome :-)
it can be confusing for some.
I worked as night shift producer in broadcast master control for years. I am still usually a day ahead, in my head.
Always good to "see" you.
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