A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.
Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.
Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Is this what you were trying to post?
(: ƃoןq ǝɥʇ ןןıʞ oʇ ʎɐʍ
Seismic Monitor
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
d: ˙˙˙uǝʇɟo ooʇ ʇɔǝɟɟǝ ʇɐɥʇ ǝʌɐɥ ǝʌɐɥ oʇ ɯǝǝs ı
thanks for posting my nieces will love this!
Link
you know it would be pretty funny if we were banned for writing upside down (:
haha no problem, I got really bored, and found that (:
Late responding to this one:
BTW, I've noticed YOU always know whom to "poof" when necessary! I usually follow your intelligent lead...except when I'm laughing too hard to follow through.
Bless you, my head hurts less now.
So will I need to subtract 14 hours next week when we change to Standard Time (EST)
or 12 hours?
Disclaimer: I'm left-handed. And have mental-pause. Not ADHD. Yet.
Good wet afternoon. :)
1000% agree
Yes, Thanks,
hey there (:
Sunday we "Fall Back" but JST doesn't change.
I used to live there.
Thanks for the great weather posts. The 3D radar rainfall is great. Now I can see Jacksonville ground clutter in 3D! Grin.
Lousy weather. But great football this week. :) Lol.
Is this a blob?
that is for sure! (8
I get that, that we fall back but JST doesn't change, but does that mean "minus 12" for EST?
Arrgghh, thought knowing UTC (universal time code, same as GMT, essentially) would solve these headaches...in the vernacular of southern gal pals, I'm a mess...
Statement as of 10:53 AM CDT on October 26, 2009
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued an
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Hardin County in southeast Texas...
this includes the city of Lumberton...
Jefferson County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Sabine Pass... Port Neches... Port
Arthur... Nederland... Hamshire... Groves... Central Gardens...
Beaumont...
Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... West Orange... Vidor... Orange...
Mauriceville... Bridge City...
* until 145 PM CDT
* at 1049 am CDT... National Weather Service radar indicated a
cluster of heavy rain producing thunderstorms advancing across
Jefferson County Texas and into Orange County Texas. Extreme
rainfall rates with this activity will bring rapid lowland and urban
flooding to these areas. Rain totals to 2 to 4 inches will be
possible as the storms move northeast at 25 mph.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.
Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause flooding of land
adjacent to small creeks and bayous. Additionally... frontage roads...
Highway underpasses... farm-to-Market and other secondary roads may
flood.
Turn around... don't drown... most flood deaths occur in automobiles.
Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one
foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the
Road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice... turn
around... dont drown.
Yuck! And looks like more coming behind it.
WE had a bad squall here in South Sound about an hour ago, not sure what the winds were probably 30-35mph in my estimation sustain for quite awhile.
Not great in the land of Deadskins. Poor coach.
From StormW this morning.
An area of disturbed weather is in the GOMEX, and will bring increased POPS (50-60%) to west central Florida late tonight, through tomorrow.
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Oct 26, 11:54 am EDT
Partly Cloudy
63 °F
(17 °C)
Humidity: 41 %
Wind Speed: Vrbl 7 MPH
Barometer: 30.10" (1019.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 39 °F (4 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Tropical Update
Thanks, must have missed his update. I am trying to work and think at the same time. Bad combination.
Oh no. What happened?
Yes, it is a blob, but likely to get sheared by / absorbed into the front that is currently in SE TX.
I assume you are referring to Jim Zorn? In my opinion he hasnt exactly led his team very well this year
No problem. You're welcome. :) I can't multitask at all. Lol.
OOOH. Ok. I just read where Gibbs crushed the rumor he was coming back as GM. Hope they win tonight. :)
me too! the Cowboys played very well yesterday.
It was rather sunny in the stadium too
Nothing seems to be at the surface but, there is now a 850mb Vorticity return that was not there a few hours ago...something to watch.
Sorry, I need to look at the directions for posting links. I know it's not hard...
Jim Zorn has been stripped of his playcalling "duties." The Miami Herald spares no punches in reporting:
Jim Zorn is punching bag for Washington Redskins
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/football/story/1299135.html
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/thehuddle/post/2009/10/cracks-showing-in-redskins-new-commi tment-to-jim-zorn/1
Even the Weather Not So Much Channel is reporting on it.
Yeah. I can't believe that coach was mad because they didn't drop the sun curtains. Lol. What would he have said if the stadium had no roof? Geesh!
haha I know! I guess he is just used to the Georgia Dome
OUCH! Poor guy. Makes you wonder how motivated they'll be to win tonight. That's almost as bad as Philly fans booing Santa Claus. What's the weather going to be like? I used to live in DC. Well, Arlington, but same thing. Lol. We had all four seasons there. :)
Lol. Good point.
haha good call
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