Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines
Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.
Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.
Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.
Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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always expect the un-expected
If you get mad at Ike for declaring a storm a "flop", then don't get mad at Ike. Instead, get mad at the storm. Ike just calls it as he sees it, IMO.
No one is mad at Ike, the incidents I told you this morning were in the past. This has nothing to do with the current situation. A matter of fact it has nothing to do with storms being a flop either.
Seismic Monitor
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
I see the Philippines has a TD that's going to brush the Far NE coast, and possible BOC development. Season ain't over yet.
Morning to you Aus, hope things are well down under :)
Looks like we may have a little action before the season is over up here.
of the 2009 Hurricane Season
Laughing on exit.
Expecting some severe storms here Tuesday arvo I hope they are not too severe, I will try to take some pics. It's also ment to be 37C(98.6F) here too.
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather
Northeast
Clouds and showers from southern New Jersey to eastern Virginia will persist most of the day. Coastal areas from Cape Cod to the Mid Atlantic will be breezy.
South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central Florida are expected today. Lingering showers remain in North Carolina as a cold front moves away from the coast.
Midwest
Some showers are possible around the Great Lakes. Breezy conditions from the upper Mississippi Valley to Missouri and Kansas.
West
Only Washington may see showers as a front pushes into western Canada.(NOAA’s National Weather Service)
Flooding and Tornados in Louisiana
Several days of heavy rain, high winds and tornados created moderate to major flood levels in Louisiana. Flood warnings continue for some areas near the Sabine River, Red River, Bayou Anacoco, Calcasieu River, Mermentau Rivers and the Red Chute Bayou.
Bossier Parish, Louisiana
Voluntary evacuation advisories remain in effect for neighborhoods surrounding Red Chute Bayou due to ongoing topping of the levee and leaking beneath sandbags. The Red Chute Bayou and Flat Rivers continue to rise beyond original forecast. One shelter is open with 1 occupant overnight. The shelter is providing meals for response personnel and displaced families. There are significant road closures related to high water throughout Bossier and Caddo Parish; 30-40 homes are impacted by flooding in Caddo. Over 100 homes were damaged following tornado activity.
Catahoula Parish, Louisiana
Water from the Ouachita River has been rising and is expected to continue for the next few days. 12,000 agricultural acres are flooded. Some road closures remain due to high water. The town of Jonesville has activated pumps to remove rain water in areas where the river levels reached the flood walls.
Union Parish, Louisiana
Flooding around Lake D’Arbonne is expected to continue through Tuesday. Hydrologists indicate that areas downstream of the Toledo Bend Reservoir should be prepared for major flooding; approximately 30-40 families in the Vernon Parish may need to evacuate. The Sabine River Authority may open the gates another foot in the near future. Already 50-65 homes have flooded; 31 parish and 4 state roads are closed.
State Response
The Governor of Louisiana declared a State of Emergency for twenty parishes: Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Union, LaSalle, Morehouse, Catahoula, Red River, Ouachita, Jefferson Davis, Webster, East Carroll, Lincoln, Franklin, Winn, Madison, Natchitoches, Calcasieu, Beauregard, and Richland.
The LA Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP); the Crisis Action Team has been activated to monitor flash flooding and severe weather across Louisiana.
306 Louisiana National Guard personnel are providing levee support utilizing high water vehicles for evacuation, search and rescue and Aerial Reconnaissance.
Federal Actions
FEMA Region VI Acting Regional Administrator is in communication with the LA GOHSEP Director. A State Liaison and both IA and PA PDA teams are on standby.
The US Army Corps of Engineers is providing technical assistance. (Region VI, Upper and Lower Mississippi River Forecast Centers)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No activity. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic
At 2:00 a.m. EST, a non-tropical gale was located about 375 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. This low appears to have acquired some subtropical characteristics. There is a high chance, greater than 30 percent, of this system becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere, tropical or subtropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday afternoon.
Western Pacific
No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 1
National Fire Activity as of Friday, October 30, 2009
Initial attack activity: Light (61 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 1
States affected: AZ (NIFC)
I did a 5 mile march thru Downtown Sydney 2 October 1986, and it was damn hot then to :)
I wont be doing that tomorrow,
Goodnight all.
NO ONE predicted the shear increase overnight? Cloudtops were lowering but this thing had an eye when i went to bed. What happened?
Oh, i call no chance on gulf blob, its 2009 remember?? The shear's like OOOH new blob to destroy. Shear will be 50kt by tomorrow morning. I'm out till thursday night. Have fun wasting your time all.
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