Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:15 PM GMT on October 31, 2009

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Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.

Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.


Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.

Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.

Jeff Masters

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712. winter123
5:33 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting winter123:
has an eye now... but such low clouds theres no way it would ever be named. Unless this is the diurnal min causing this, I'm going to pronounce this storm dead... was probably part warm core for a few hours but it's not worthy of a name unless it magically bombs soon.


(guess i'm the only one staying up till the 4am advisory... lol... have too, roommate plays music till at least then)


NO ONE predicted the shear increase overnight? Cloudtops were lowering but this thing had an eye when i went to bed. What happened?
Oh, i call no chance on gulf blob, its 2009 remember?? The shear's like OOOH new blob to destroy. Shear will be 50kt by tomorrow morning. I'm out till thursday night. Have fun wasting your time all.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
711. AussieStorm
3:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


I did a 5 mile march thru Downtown Sydney 2 October 1986, and it was damn hot then to :)

I wont be doing that tomorrow,
Goodnight all.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
710. Orcasystems
3:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

Expecting some severe storms here Tuesday arvo I hope they are not too severe, I will try to take some pics. It's also ment to be 37C(98.6F) here too.


I did a 5 mile march thru Downtown Sydney 2 October 1986, and it was damn hot then to :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
709. AwakeInMaryland
2:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
National Situation Update: Monday, November 2, 2009
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather

Northeast
Clouds and showers from southern New Jersey to eastern Virginia will persist most of the day. Coastal areas from Cape Cod to the Mid Atlantic will be breezy.
South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central Florida are expected today. Lingering showers remain in North Carolina as a cold front moves away from the coast.
Midwest
Some showers are possible around the Great Lakes. Breezy conditions from the upper Mississippi Valley to Missouri and Kansas.
West
Only Washington may see showers as a front pushes into western Canada.(NOAA’s National Weather Service)
Flooding and Tornados in Louisiana

Several days of heavy rain, high winds and tornados created moderate to major flood levels in Louisiana. Flood warnings continue for some areas near the Sabine River, Red River, Bayou Anacoco, Calcasieu River, Mermentau Rivers and the Red Chute Bayou.
Bossier Parish, Louisiana
Voluntary evacuation advisories remain in effect for neighborhoods surrounding Red Chute Bayou due to ongoing topping of the levee and leaking beneath sandbags. The Red Chute Bayou and Flat Rivers continue to rise beyond original forecast. One shelter is open with 1 occupant overnight. The shelter is providing meals for response personnel and displaced families. There are significant road closures related to high water throughout Bossier and Caddo Parish; 30-40 homes are impacted by flooding in Caddo. Over 100 homes were damaged following tornado activity.
Catahoula Parish, Louisiana
Water from the Ouachita River has been rising and is expected to continue for the next few days. 12,000 agricultural acres are flooded. Some road closures remain due to high water. The town of Jonesville has activated pumps to remove rain water in areas where the river levels reached the flood walls.
Union Parish, Louisiana
Flooding around Lake D’Arbonne is expected to continue through Tuesday. Hydrologists indicate that areas downstream of the Toledo Bend Reservoir should be prepared for major flooding; approximately 30-40 families in the Vernon Parish may need to evacuate. The Sabine River Authority may open the gates another foot in the near future. Already 50-65 homes have flooded; 31 parish and 4 state roads are closed.

State Response
The Governor of Louisiana declared a State of Emergency for twenty parishes: Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Union, LaSalle, Morehouse, Catahoula, Red River, Ouachita, Jefferson Davis, Webster, East Carroll, Lincoln, Franklin, Winn, Madison, Natchitoches, Calcasieu, Beauregard, and Richland.
The LA Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP); the Crisis Action Team has been activated to monitor flash flooding and severe weather across Louisiana.
306 Louisiana National Guard personnel are providing levee support utilizing high water vehicles for evacuation, search and rescue and Aerial Reconnaissance.

Federal Actions
FEMA Region VI Acting Regional Administrator is in communication with the LA GOHSEP Director. A State Liaison and both IA and PA PDA teams are on standby.
The US Army Corps of Engineers is providing technical assistance. (Region VI, Upper and Lower Mississippi River Forecast Centers)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No activity. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
At 2:00 a.m. EST, a non-tropical gale was located about 375 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. This low appears to have acquired some subtropical characteristics. There is a high chance, greater than 30 percent, of this system becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere, tropical or subtropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday afternoon.
Western Pacific
No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 1
National Fire Activity as of Friday, October 30, 2009
Initial attack activity: Light (61 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 1
States affected: AZ (NIFC)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
708. AussieStorm
2:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning to you Aus, hope things are well down under :)

Looks like we may have a little action before the season is over up here.

Expecting some severe storms here Tuesday arvo I hope they are not too severe, I will try to take some pics. It's also ment to be 37C(98.6F) here too.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
707. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
GHOST

of the 2009 Hurricane Season

Laughing on exit.


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
706. Orcasystems
2:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening everyone,
I see the Philippines has a TD that's going to brush the Far NE coast, and possible BOC development. Season ain't over yet.


Morning to you Aus, hope things are well down under :)

Looks like we may have a little action before the season is over up here.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
705. AussieStorm
2:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Good Evening everyone,
I see the Philippines has a TD that's going to brush the Far NE coast, and possible BOC development. Season ain't over yet.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
704. Orcasystems
2:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2009


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
703. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
AOI
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52343
702. Cavin Rawlins
2:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
tornado

If you get mad at Ike for declaring a storm a "flop", then don't get mad at Ike. Instead, get mad at the storm. Ike just calls it as he sees it, IMO.

No one is mad at Ike, the incidents I told you this morning were in the past. This has nothing to do with the current situation. A matter of fact it has nothing to do with storms being a flop either.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
701. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39:
I hope the models are out in left field, about a potential TC in the GOM.


always expect the un-expected
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52343
700. tornadofan
1:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


When you (not you literally) sit here and present balanced information and people accuse you of wishcasting and immaturity when they themselves pick and chooses information to suite their needs becomes a problem. I fail to see what we gain from that.


I've seen lots of wishcasters on here, but I never did think you were one of them.

But I don't understand why you are dissing on Ike. I've scene him get excited about the potential of storms blossoming this year. Then when it becomes clear that the storm will flop, he declares it so. Let's face it, outside of Bill, this has been the year of flop.

If you get mad at Ike for declaring a storm a "flop", then don't get mad at Ike. Instead, get mad at the storm. Ike just calls it as he sees it, IMO.
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
699. AwakeInMaryland
1:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Issuance Times

Ah ha, thanks for doing my homework for me.
I see it's all here. Appreciate it.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
698. nrtiwlnvragn
1:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Most interesting! I keep forgetting about HPC which is right around our DC Beltway.
Please forgive newbie question; how often and when is this updated?


Issuance Times
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10468
697. AwakeInMaryland
1:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


GULF COAST...
INTERESTINGLY...THE ONE PLACE WHERE THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
GAINING INCREASING SUPPORT AND SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM BECAME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WOULD BE A UNIQUE NOVEMBER EVENT BOTH IN
AREA OF FORMATION AND POTENTIAL TRACK. STAY TUNED.


HPC Day 7 Preliminary Graphic

Most interesting! I keep forgetting about HPC which is right around our DC Beltway.
Please forgive newbie question; how often and when is this updated?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
696. stormsurge39
1:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
I hope the models are out in left field, about a potential TC in the GOM.
695. eyesontheweather
1:40 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


ohok...I see ur point.
I want to emphasize to you as well as a handful of others that the information coming from this blog would not be nearly as good and accurate if it were not for your quality investigation and assesments you knowledgable guys put out here for pre-novice individuals like myself. I sincerely thank you for your dedication you have put into this.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
694. Cavin Rawlins
1:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39:
456, Is the weather pattern set-up better now in the SW Caribbean, BOC, and SGOM,than it was in Oct for a potential TC?


The pattern over the WCARIB is slightly above the late-October-early-November mean.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
692. nrtiwlnvragn
1:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


GULF COAST...
INTERESTINGLY...THE ONE PLACE WHERE THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
GAINING INCREASING SUPPORT AND SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM BECAME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WOULD BE A UNIQUE NOVEMBER EVENT BOTH IN
AREA OF FORMATION AND POTENTIAL TRACK. STAY TUNED.


HPC Day 7 Preliminary Graphic
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10468
691. Cavin Rawlins
1:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting MayFL:


Will you be here and what are your predictions for next year?
Quoting MayFL:


Will you be here and what are your predictions for next year?
Quoting MayFL:


Will you be here and what are your predictions for next year?


As long as life does not throw any curve balls I miss.

My thinking for next year will be govern by how quickly El Nino weakens.

I do not think this will be a multi-year El Nino like 2002-2004 or 1991-1994.

The leading climate models show this El Nino similar to those that peak in the winter and weaken through the spring and early Summer.

The conditions may lag so the season may start late but that all depends.

More than 80% of hurricane seasons following El Nino years are more than active so 2010 stands a good chance of reviving the normal period of high activity we are in.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
690. stormsurge39
1:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
456, Is the weather pattern set-up better now in the SW Caribbean, BOC, and SGOM,than it was in Oct for a potential TC?
687. Cavin Rawlins
1:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting eyesontheweather:
All I am sayin is I believe Ike makes an assesments and they are unbiased. You are also very well respected by me as being very accurate and unbiased. In other words the original post seemed to indicate that Ike has become an automatic RIP for everything and I have not seen that to be true.


ohok...I see ur point.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
686. eyesontheweather
1:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


I respectfully disagree. I have been here all season long and the character changed right after 93L in late June.
All I am sayin is I believe Ike makes an assesments and they are unbiased. You are also very well respected by me as being very accurate and unbiased. In other words the original post seemed to indicate that Ike has become an automatic RIP for everything and I have not seen that to be true.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
685. Cavin Rawlins
1:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting MayFL:


plus 1.

Don't let em' get to you. He is a hobbyist who feels his personal problems is greater than weather, which is a mockery of me, you, and others profession.


I just want to get this hurricane season behind me...I've had to much non-sense said to me.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
683. Cavin Rawlins
1:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting tornadofan:


Then we agree to disagree. Keep up the good work, er.. good hobby Ike.


When you (not you literally) sit here and present balanced information and people accuse you of wishcasting and immaturity when they themselves pick and chooses information to suite their needs becomes a problem. I fail to see what we gain from that.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
682. tornadofan
1:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


I respectfully disagree. I have been here all season long and the character changed right after 93L in late June.


Then we agree to disagree. Keep up the good work, er.. good hobby Ike.
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
681. stormsurge39
1:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
I read that the weather patterns right now are keeping the moisture and energy in the SW Caribbean hanging around longer! This is much different than Oct., when all the moisture was being pushed West. I really do believe the Northern Central Gulf Coast needs to keep and eye for developement late this week into early next week. Also something was said about high pressures at 18000 feet could help ventalation of a potential system. I dont really understand all of it, but it sounds like a possible concern!
680. afj3
1:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Is there something brewing in the SW GOM?
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 346
679. Cavin Rawlins
1:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Ike has been right all season long and calls them as they are. I for one am grateful that he makes accurate assesment without emotional wishing involved.


I respectfully disagree. I have been here all season long and the character changed right after 93L in late June.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
677. eyesontheweather
1:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting stoormfury:
all season long IKE has been on a RIP scene for most of the weather systems, be it invests tropical storms or hurricanes. maybe next season he should change his handle from IKE to RIP
Ike has been right all season long and calls them as they are. I for one am grateful that he makes accurate assesment without emotional wishing involved.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
676. Cavin Rawlins
1:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting stoormfury:
all season long IKE has been on a RIP scene for most of the weather systems, be it invests tropical storms or hurricanes. maybe next season he should change his handle from IKE to RIP


We will see next season goes.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
675. stoormfury
12:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
all season long IKE has been on a RIP scene for most of the weather systems, be it invests tropical storms or hurricanes. maybe next season he should change his handle from IKE to RIP
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
674. Orcasystems
12:33 PM GMT on November 02, 2009


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
673. Bordonaro
12:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Doesn't really matter what its called. If it brings rain here its gonna be a mess. This is from the 10/31 discussion...

WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...PRELIMINARY MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE AVAILABLE...WITH ALL OF OUR ASOS SITES RECORDING WITHIN
THE TOP 5 WETTEST OCTOBERS OF RECORD. HERE ARE THE MONTHLY
TOTALS:

ALEXANDRIA.........12.66"...3RD WETTEST
BEAUMONT...........14.90"...3RD WETTEST
LAKE CHARLES.......14.96"...3RD WETTEST
LAFAYETTE..........12.52"...5TH WETTEST
NEW IBERIA.........11.65"...2ND WETTEST

And we have this...

Flood Warning
Statement as of 9:36 PM CST on November 01, 2009



The Flood Warning continues for
the Sabine River near Deweyville.
* Until further notice... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 24.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 28.1 feet by
Friday morning with a Long Flat crest beginning at that time.
Additional rises may be possible thereafter. This forecast is highly
dependent on the releases at Toledo Bend.
* Impact... at 28.1 feet... this flooding will be similar to the
flooding experienced in the flood of March 2001. Homes in
Deweyville have water in them. Flooding of homes in the Indian
Lakes and River Oaks sections can be expected. In addition...
flooding of roads and low structures can be expected in
Calcasieu Parish from near aligator park to near I-10 including
the nibletts Bluff Park area. Low-lying roads and low structures
in Beauregard Parish near the river will be flooded. Preparations
for major flooding should be under way.
* This flood will be compareable to the flood of March 2001.

:(





Hopefully the computer models are wrong here! It is also 7 days out from the "expected development" and the computer models this year have been on a "vacation to Tahiti" all hurricane season long!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
672. Bordonaro
12:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting torreoviedo:
It's impossible that MIRINAE was a 45kt tropical storm... I don't believe it



02/0230 UTC 13.1N 110.3E T5.0/5.0 MIRINAE -- West Pacific


You're right JTWC said it was a 65KT system at 0600Z, looks like the system intensified as it approached Vietnam. Dvorak 5.0=90KT, CAT 2
Typhoon!

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
671. IKE
12:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
They are updating frames on the floater for 96L now...




O....kay......

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
670. IKE
11:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LOSING
ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN



From the latest discussion....

"...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
S OF THE LOW ALONG 29N57W 26N59W 24N64W. A DYING STATIONARY
FRONT ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE E ALONG
41N51W 32N49W 26N50W 21N55W THEN W N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 20N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 33N55W SUPPORTS THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-54W...BECOMING
STRONG IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. IF THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
FRONTAL PROPERTIES...THEN THE LOW COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY WERE. THE SURFACE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NW THEN NORTHWARD."

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
669. homelesswanderer
11:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2009
Doesn't really matter what its called. If it brings rain here its gonna be a mess. This is from the 10/31 discussion...

WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...PRELIMINARY MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE AVAILABLE...WITH ALL OF OUR ASOS SITES RECORDING WITHIN
THE TOP 5 WETTEST OCTOBERS OF RECORD. HERE ARE THE MONTHLY
TOTALS:

ALEXANDRIA.........12.66"...3RD WETTEST
BEAUMONT...........14.90"...3RD WETTEST
LAKE CHARLES.......14.96"...3RD WETTEST
LAFAYETTE..........12.52"...5TH WETTEST
NEW IBERIA.........11.65"...2ND WETTEST

And we have this...

Flood Warning
Statement as of 9:36 PM CST on November 01, 2009



The Flood Warning continues for
the Sabine River near Deweyville.
* Until further notice... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 24.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 28.1 feet by
Friday morning with a Long Flat crest beginning at that time.
Additional rises may be possible thereafter. This forecast is highly
dependent on the releases at Toledo Bend.
* Impact... at 28.1 feet... this flooding will be similar to the
flooding experienced in the flood of March 2001. Homes in
Deweyville have water in them. Flooding of homes in the Indian
Lakes and River Oaks sections can be expected. In addition...
flooding of roads and low structures can be expected in
Calcasieu Parish from near aligator park to near I-10 including
the nibletts Bluff Park area. Low-lying roads and low structures
in Beauregard Parish near the river will be flooded. Preparations
for major flooding should be under way.
* This flood will be compareable to the flood of March 2001.

:(



Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
668. Cavin Rawlins
11:37 AM GMT on November 02, 2009
Blog Update

Subtropical Invest 96L less organize; Possible Bay of Campeche development next week
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
667. IKE
11:34 AM GMT on November 02, 2009
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST MON NOV 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. FOCUS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT FROM GOOD WEATHER TO BAD AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER MEXICO PROVIDING UPPER RIDGING AND
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GULF. SOMETHING TO WATCH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO ISSUES IN THE SHORT TO INTERMEDIATE
TERM THOUGH.


Mobile,AL. long-term...

"AT THE MOMENT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A SMALL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF IS INDICATED FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK MOVING NORTHEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE WOULD SEE POPS RISING MONDAY SHOULD SUBSEQUENT MODEL
OUTPUTS CONVERGE TO THIS SCENARIO...SO A CONTINUED FOCUS ON THAT
WOULD BE TAKEN IN FORECASTS SUBSEQUENT TO THIS ONE...WITH OR WITHOUT
A CHANGE IN THE ACTUAL FORECAST."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
666. homelesswanderer
11:31 AM GMT on November 02, 2009
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
423 AM CST MON NOV 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF RAPIDLY BRING BACK MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...GENERATING
A SFC LOW TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF BY MON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THIS LOW WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL...BUT COULD GENERATE ANOTHER
HEALTY DOUSING OF PRECIPITATION IF THIS PANS OUT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
510 AM CST MON NOV 2 2009

MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT NOW SEEM BENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE VERY STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT BUT WON`T RULE OUT SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT YET. HAVE
STARTED INCREASING POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRINGING IN CLOUDS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS VERY LOW.

1 vote extra
1 vote Sub

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
665. Cavin Rawlins
11:23 AM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting futuremet:


1 It indeed have subtropical characteristics, but time is not in its favor.

It will continue to weaken as the day progressesl


Good Morning all

What a difference a night makes...but it came close enough
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
664. IKE
11:21 AM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting futuremet:


Most likely




I see that. Thanks.

Looks like the floater on 96L hasn't updated since 0845UTC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
663. futuremet
11:10 AM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting IKE:


6Z GFS shows a gulf low.

00Z ECMWF shows one...albeit weaker than yesterdays 12Z run.

Problem is...

(1)Will it be tropical?
(2)It's November.
(3)No tropical system has formed or moved beyond 87W all season...in 155 days of it.


Most likely


Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
662. IKE
10:57 AM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting futuremet:
As the anomalous stagnant ridging pattern finishes, troughs are starting to return to the east coast. Because of the unusual ridging pattern we had this October, the bulk of the moisture in the W caribbean were advected westward toward land. The deep layered highs also caused major subsidence and low level divergence over the area. Such a pattern can bust tropical cyclogenesis, despite the presence of a positive MJO.

The normal fall weather pattern seems to be establishing, and that means vigorous troughs will be more prevalent. Unlike ridges, troughs cause a northward movement of the moisture in the SW Caribbean, and prolong their existence. This usually causes the formation of upper level high pressure systems (200-500mb)--which help ventilate tropical systems. This is exactly what the models have been showing the past couple days--decreasing surface pressure and favorable a favorable upper air environment later this week.

Models expecting some sort developmentL

CMC, ECMWF, GFS, and NAM.


6Z GFS shows a gulf low.

00Z ECMWF shows one...albeit weaker than yesterdays 12Z run.

Problem is...

(1)Will it be tropical?
(2)It's November.
(3)No tropical system has formed or moved beyond 87W all season...in 155 days of it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.