Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua
Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.
Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.
Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.
Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.
Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 — Blog Index
Generally, though, it's not when one model picks something up but when you start to see consensus across a number of them...all of the models have had noteable failures; there are no exceptions...
I don't expect this to wind down that quickly
Don't make the mistake of pinning all of your hopes on a shear forecast for 5+ days out...patience; another 24-48 hours will clarify a lot of things
LOOP of above image
They only problem with this solution is there is suppose to be a gap or hole in shear over the gom when ida is suppose to enter. There could also be a problem if ida gets caught by a front. im pretty sure the shear wouldnt be as bad, because the storm would be traveling with the shear or in the direction of the shear.
Is the center opening up or is that just an effect from the light
That pretty well confirms it's inland.
I don't think so even though it looks like it, the coc imo is around 13.3N/83.5W, thats just my opinion though.
Looks like its a lack of moisture, with no warm water underneath for fuel, it will have a hard time staying totally together, classic look for a starving storm. You would think it could be dry air, but there isnt any dry air in the area, very moist atmosphere.
Water Vapor
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 NOV 2009 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 13:19:35 N Lon : 83:49:29
imo? yes.
Exactly my thoughts also.
See the niche above the Yucatan in line with the forecast path of Ida? Hmmm...less than 10knts
If you look at what appears to be the "eye" in that photo in this rainbow floater... Link
... The "eye" is a break in the convection well to the west of the center of circulation. Or that is my interpretation at least.
05/1745 UTC 13.1N 83.7W
This a very complicated scenario. As much as three tropical entities could soon be interacting with each other.
(BAMD really figuring on Ida getting picked up and carried away...and right by here in SE LA)
i think the center is in between those two arrows
Im pretty sure the center is in between those spots you pointed out. i.e. between dry spot and apparent center.
Which is just east of that dry-slot.
keep in mind when looking at these maps that a TC itself generates shear. So if the model predicting the shear ALSO predicts a TC, you need to compare relative shear not just straight numbers as this could be the case. Not saying that's the case here, just throwing that out there should you start seeing a niche where the model predicts the center to be and shear on it's outer edges .. I dunno if thats what we see on that map but I've seen it in the past and have been instructed at school to look at the shear in that light.
Yeah I know. I was pointing out that the position posted by Xcool and hour later @ 18:45 is NNE from that location. Granted it's Cimms and not the TPC position.
18Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Sea Surface Temperature
I disagree if you look at the loop. Dry slot has been there. Look at the loop.
Zoom in too. That's the eye, imo.
Link
If this thing heads toward Florida I don't see shear being an issue until it gets close to the coast according to your shear forecast. I am not real trusting of shear forecasts this year as they've been wrong a number of times. Interesting storm, eh?
I concur...
If you are not affiliated with the Portlight organization then your use of this handle is offensive
Viewing: 501 - 551
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 — Blog Index