Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua
Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.
Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.
Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.
Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.
Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hurricane Isbell was the fifth strongest storm of the 1964 Atlantic hurricane season and the strongest landfalling hurricane of the season in the United States. It became a tropical depression east of Nicaragua on October 8. It then strengthened into a tropical storm and later into a hurricane on October 13 before making landfall in western Cuba. In the Gulf of Mexico, on October 14, it strengthened into a major hurricane before making landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 2 hurricane.[1] After entering the Atlantic, it headed towards North Carolina and made landfall on October 16 just before weakening to an extratropical storm with winds under hurricane force at 45 mph (70 km/h). It then dissipated the following day. It caused $20 million (1964 USD) ($120 million in 2005 USD) in damage, most of it being from crop damage or tornadic activity. In addition to damage, it caused 6 deaths.
Tropical Update on IDA! Go to the blog area for the update. Here on my home page are the Interactive Floater Loops on IDA! Don't beat me up to bad with my thoughts! LOL
If Kog can get snow..and right now we are in what appears to be a tropical downpour... you can have snow.
There is a river running down our road right now.
Click the image for a loop.
We've had snow... heck I even posted pics of ice on the bayou one year on WU. So you've got flooding, (got your snorkel?)we are watching a system in the GoM... interesting weather we're having.
But please shut the door, keep your cold air up there in the north...
Remember what I said "Snow & Flip Flops are not compatible!"
Appears to still be getting a lot of moisture from the sea... its not going to die easy... if it does.
me too! apparently a small wiener dog in a wiener bun is too funny for the admins.
no way, as ive been saying for days, at max this thing plows into the US as an extratropical cyclone.
(CNN) -- A solider suspected of fatally shooting 12 and wounding 31 at Fort Hood in Texas on Thursday is not dead as previously reported by the military, the base's commander said Thursday evening.
A civilian officer who was wounded in the incident shot the suspect, who is "in custody and in stable condition," Army Lt. Gen. Robert Cone told reporters.
"Preliminary reports indicate there was a single shooter that was shot multiple times at the scene," Cone said at a news conference. "However, he was not killed as previously reported."
LOCATION...14.1N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
011L/TD/I
MARK
14.6N/84.4W
Being at 14.1N, if that trend continues of .3 degrees north every 3 hours, Ida will be back over water in about 15 hours
Haven't seen the new CMC but it had been wrapping up 96, Ida and the BOC blob and taking it all into sw la. Been showing that since yesterday.
060000Z Run still doing about the same thing.
Link
Still shows that to a degree. Be interesting if the Euro is still moving the BOC blob into sw la. Been showing that for about a week now. Every model run another model seems to the same thing at the same time. Getting a little creepy. Lol.
Its the exact same map except for the initial position
NHC does not update forecast tracks during intermediate advisories
Thanks. I guess we were looking at the same time. :)
If it moves due N, Ida is approximately 105 miles from the coast
even moving at only 5 mph, the center would be offshore in 24 hours at the most, but I think we will see Ida offshore tomorrow sometime
they have always updated the forecast map to show the latest advisory position
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
930 PM CST THU NOV 05 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRES OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRES GRADIENT
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A STRONG BREEZE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY N THROUGH MON.
MEANWHILE A REJUVENATED IDA WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY
LATE MON.
I think its moving north right now or more NNW than before. They don't change movement during the int advisories.
Unless its a large change in direction like a storm was moving north then changes to the west at high enough speeds for them to know its more than a wobble.
Must be getting late, I knew that.
So whatcha think the chances are the next forecast track has it faster and further to the right?
I know, just saying they do update the map to show the intermediate advisory and position
I favor the track of mine in Red!
True.
I think you have her as a depression for too long after she exits Honduras
I say she gets back up to minimal hurricane status
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