Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua
Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.
Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.
Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.
Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.
Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Significant weather changes on the way for late this weekend.
Main concerns will be coastal flooding and excessive rainfall.
Discussion
Surface ridge in place will move eastward Friday allowing Gulf moisture to return to the region. Bay of Campeche surface trough is forecast to begin to lift northward ahead of a strong upper level storm system off the US west coast. Models are still up in the air on if the Gulf surface trough closes off into a closed surface low pressure system and if it has tropical tendencies. Since a tropical cyclone landfall in TX in November would be extremely rare...I will go with the less aggressive solution at this time. Regardless strong moisture advection of 2.0 in PWS will arrive into the region late Saturday as the upper trough digs into N Mexico and then ejects eastward across TX Sunday. Main thrust of strong dynamic lift comes out Sunday PM and Sunday night and meets well with incoming surface trough/low over the NW Gulf at this time. Very high QPF is generated along the coast and offshore as these two systems come together over the NW Gulf/upper TX coast.
Impacts:
Coastal Flooding
Offshore winds will gradually intensify as surface pressure fall in the southern Gulf and strong high pressure anchors over the SE US. Expect high end SCA to low end gale conditions over the central Gulf by early Saturday. Wave Watch III model shows central Gulf swells building to near 15 feet with periods increasing to near 10 seconds. This supports nearshore swells of 8 feet or better with long periods. ENE to E fetch from FL to TX will promote extensive Ekman transport of N Gulf water coastward. Additionally, current luner phase is supporting 1.5-2.5 feet above normal tides without atmospheric effects. Given expected large swell action and already increased tide levels...coastal flooding seems likely as early as Saturday and worsen on Sunday. Total tides may run 3.5-4.5 feet above normal along the middle and upper TX coast which is well into the local warning criteria especially after dune loss from Ike. Tides of this level may flood portions of the west end of Galveston, Bolivar, and low lying areas within Galveston and Matagorda Bays. Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued Friday.
Rainfall:
Still a little early to nail down QPF amounts as there is still large model spread and still uncertainty as to what will transpire in the NW Gulf. Given moisture levels back up to near 200% above November normals and very strong lift noted with the incoming trough heavy rainfall seems likely. Main question is if this remains offshore should a surface reflection develop over the NW Gulf. Best thing is to raise rain chances into the 50-60% for Sunday PM and then likely ramp up more for Sunday night. Heaviest rains may focus near the coast which would not have a big impact on our current river flooding. Should the models start to trend toward more inland penetration of the heavy rains...a Flash Flood Watch could be require given grounds are still soggy and the Nov sun angle is low so things do not dry as much as they would in July
Oh yeah, Happy Guy Fawkes day!!!
Eh, no you're not, lol.
Sigh, I'm short.
Think I'll rest up for tonight's blog show. Thnx, all.
hi guys,
but since it's stationary on land doesn't late mean chances of it weakening are greater?
"or it to possibly take advantage of more conducive conditions down the road"
do you mean shear dropping lower at the later time?
TCVN, GFDL and the UKMET are all east of the NHC
NHC is following the HWRF.
Good argument for IDA staying on or near the coast moving N or NNE even.
and the stationary situation now means the NNE movement is even more of a possibility
Notice, this is the anticyclone that moves the higher shear north and out of Idas way as the anticyclone itself moves northward. Just going by what I'm seeing, if you go to the CIMMS site and animate it, you can see the anticyclone moving north and pushing the higher wind shear northward and out of Idas way for now.
Interesting read. Where'd you find that?
That system was moving WNW and it hit the mountains of Nicaragua, that is why it dissipated, the others all moved more to the NW; which is why they survived
Ida is not forecasted to get that far west, so you can almost throw that storm out now too
Also NONE of the storms he mentioned occurred in November lol
That map seems to indicate that Ida will remain a Tropical Storm.
I live in south florida,can anyone tell me if this hurricane may hit south florida,in the near future...
Thank you
Looks like the main models like the eastward track..
WAY too early to anticipate a landfall. Is south Florida a possibility? YES. Is Texas a possibility? YES Right now the best course of action would be to watch and wait. The entire gulf coast is threatened at this point. IMO
looking at the eastward curve..the west side of florida..again in 5 days is could change...anybody in florida should dust of your hurricane box---you probably ate all of the candy from it now..
I was gonna say, looking west of the forecast track doesn't offer many reliable sources. Slight change this afternoon IMO to the east, more coming if the trend holds.
you can see the NNW turn toward the end.
Seismic Monitor
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Go to my blog.....its got everything you need there......TampaSpin
Right on the coast, just inland.
yes you can see it stops moving NW and starts NNW at the end of the run.
thank you.
Ida gonna cause some trouble somewhere..
and is for many now as she pounds the coast with Rains and Heavy Gusts.
NHC is firmly on the western edge of the reliable guidance now.
Yay the models are pointing in my direction .. I was getting nervous until now .. you know how it is... if you're in the crosshairs this far out especially with complex steering, you can breathe easy LOL .. ( btw for those not used to model madness humor, dont listen to this, everyone in the carribean and gomex needs to watch this regardless if the models "point" at you or not)
Looks like some more symmetry in the models for the 18z run. At least in the 48-72 hour forecast.
18Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200911_model.html#a_topad
Nice graphic, I like that you can really tell where the center is and where it might be headed, I figure its between 6-12 miles inland if that.
Look at the Pacific medium potential is starting to spin up.
Note the 12Z BAMD,to now
18z(current BAMD)
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