Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WoolmarketWeatherMan:
stormno/POOF!

So ya quoted his post so everyone that has already taken that measure could see it? (I guess unless they have Poofed yourself, too...)
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Impressive

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Reccon

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2436. 786
456, not raining a the moment, winds have died down and pressure is rising. There is still a nice ball of convection S of us. Still waiting for her NW movement
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has IDA stalled? dont seem to be moving to me.
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Quoting tacoman:
info just received out of my office on tropical storm ida..ida has 3 things not in her favor...once ida gets into the gom she will encounter strong shear not to mention the ssts are in the 70s in past 26 degress..the bottome line is we have a very complex area in the boc developing and a surface low may form down there today causing ida to slow down later in the forecast period..in the next 48 to 60 hours a strong trough is expected to dig into the northern gom causing ida to lose all tropical characteristics..this is not to say ida would lose her punch it just means ida will be around for quite a while..the northern gom could see gale warnings go up as early as tomorrow afternoon..rainfall rated of 5 to 8 inches is not out of the question from sunday thru tuesday ..all interests along the la and miss gulf coasts should prepare for winds gusting to 70mph and torrential rains with some isolated tornados likely..i am watching this closely i said the other day this low in the boc would be the dominant system and thats the way it looks to me right now...ill be on with another update during the lsu bama game i will be getting new info into my office at that time...tacoman
stormno/POOF!
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Yep the Hurricane season is over....YA RIGHT!





Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
If this thing gets anywhere near Mississippi it is going to make for a long week for me next week.
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2429. GBlet
Good morning bloggers. Ida is pretty to look at but, I have been concerning myself with proecting my tomatoes so that I will have them for Thanksgiving. So please be nice and don't say anything that might piss Mother Nature off, cuz then my magic would be gone.
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Quoting foggymyst:
Not for nothing Tampa.. but Ida is going against all Nascar rules.. needs to be a left turn, please..
you are forgetting the road courses...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting amd:
hurricane hunters just left mississippi. Even though the recon is not currently giving out 30 second updates on their location, they have sent out one RECCO message.

Link


Thanks...this should be interesting.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Not for nothing Tampa.. but Ida is going against all Nascar rules.. needs to be a left turn, please..
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2425. IKE
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Hey Ike, I believe you got what you were looking for. We were talking about that northward trend and now we got a new run with a more northly trend again. Things are going to continue to change esspecially if Ida gets stronger. Going to be interesting to see what the recon shows later today.


I would rather it die in the middle GOM...lol.

Looks less likely.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting TampaSpin:


I do believe a right turn will occur.......LOL

Haha yea but the questions is how hard of a right turn...all this talk about Central or southern FL needing to watch, if it makes it there it will be nothign but a low. But everything is favoring a north gulf coast strike now. should be interesting.
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2421. amd
hurricane hunters just left mississippi. Even though the recon is not currently giving out 30 second updates on their location, they have sent out one RECCO message.

Link
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Looking forward to Dr. M's comments today....See Yall Later.....WW
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Downtown...Georgetown, Caymans




Grand Cayman


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2418. bjdsrq
Quoting Jeff9641:

You have issues and how I'm lying. Get a grip and analyze IDA.


Dude, this flame was directed towards P451. Sorry you misunderstood the context. Peace.
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I do believe a right turn will occur.......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2416. aquak9
Thank you, 456. Two and a half hours, we'll see what they find.

RGB looks like a pot about to boil over.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Anyone see the emsemles? If those verify looks like a LA and MS have something to watch.


Yup.
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2412. 786
LOL I lived in Canada for years, yeah driving on ice is not fun and I remember the cold all to well! which is why I'm here.
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Anyone see the emsemles? If those verify looks like a LA and MS have something to watch.
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Quoting aquak9:
gotta speck of white in the last frame of RGB.

WHEN will today's hunters get there? I really wanna follow the vorts.
Looks like they are on their way now.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
2407. 786
yup, dull, rainy weekend, at least its an extended one, hopefully Monday will be sunny.

there looks to be a new blob near Panama
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Quoting aquak9:
gotta speck of white in the last frame of RGB.

WHEN will today's hunters get there? I really wanna follow the vorts.


well about noon east coast time.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 07/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0211A IDA
C. 07/1115Z
D. 17.2N 84.7W
E. 07/1500Z TO 07/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

They have not updated since 10 am yesterday.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2405. bjdsrq
Quoting 786:
the joys of living in Cayman, where systems tend to develop around us, always last minute.

Although we are getting good rain and decent gusts, the pressure here is rising, in fact the barometers say 1013 and rising:-


Like I tell my friends in the north.... it still beats miserable snow and ice for 6 months of the year. I bet you have a much better chance of getting killed driving on an icy road living in a northern clim than getting killed by a hurricane in the tropics.
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Hey Ike, I believe you got what you were looking for. We were talking about that northward trend and now we got a new run with a more northly trend again. Things are going to continue to change esspecially if Ida gets stronger. Going to be interesting to see what the recon shows later today.
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1415 UTC

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Good morning everyone.. Its been a while.. Cant believe its November and we are tracking..


Good morning Sir Storm if you are still in here.. LOL
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm sorry for affending anyone but I don't deserve this from you my background is in met. and I am not a home alone kid. I am a 30yr old male who loves weather. I have my opinion like everybody else so respect it and I will respect yours. I don't think I said anything wrong but if I did sorry.


I never said you are a home alone kid. I never quoted you, attacked you, talked to you, heck i didn't even know you were here. So maybe you hit the wrong post to quote, or most of this post wasn't directed at me because im majorly confused now. Lets just talk about Ida.

Is that a possible small hot tower in the center of ida?

EDIT: Just read my post was a little harsh, nor hard feelins man, i apologize for anything i said offensive.
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Quoting IKE:

Odd how the Navy model and the Navy model both saw thataway .

Maybe those 2 Navy models have the same boundary/initial conditions (or NOGAPS is the NGFDL boundary/initial conditions)
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2398. aquak9
gotta speck of white in the last frame of RGB.

WHEN will today's hunters get there? I really wanna follow the vorts.
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Quoting bjdsrq:
So is NOAA or AF recon going to check this out or what?


1600Z or 11AM EST
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models are starting to drop intensity a bit...HWRF actually went up a bit but looks like TS as it gets close to shore after it does hit cat 1 for a bit.
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Intensity estimates are as follows:

ADT 43 knots
AMSU 53 knots
SATCON - 48 knots


Now ADT analyzed a uniformed CDO around 1100 UTC so I think the intensity has risen since then.

As for AMSU and SATCON. they were based on the microwave pass that showed the possible eye feature.

It can be concluded that Ida is about a 50 knot TS.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Weather conditions on Cayman Brac (9.26 AM)

Wind out of NE-ESE @ 7-10 MPH - Highest gust in last hour 16.3 MPH
Pressure 1009.8 and rising
Total overcast but no rain at this time.
Sea conditions - choppy

Pretty much like a dull weeknd right now
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I would imagine that Ida would track a little to east of the current forecast points if she is really able to show some improvement and intensification over the next 24 hours so the western tip of Cuba may be impacted and she might not thread the needle though the Yucatan channel; my point is that it may be too early to rule out a possible Florida impact which would include the south westerm part of the peninsula, particularly, if she slows down a bit in the short term.
thats what i am seeing looks like another shift to the right again
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Here we go...new models showing farther north again and even possible landfall in the Gulf States. Time to start rethinking your forecasts haha.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.