Ida survives its Central American crossing
Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.
Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.
Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.
The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Have a safe trip. You'll be about 70 miles west of me.
I still want that interview! :)
Now I know I can't go back to sleep.
CMC expects it to hit Louisiana and then turn back to southern florida
ECMWF...GFDL and HWRF have it getting close to the NW FL. panhandle....
00Z GFDL at 96 hours....
00Z HWRF at 90 hours....
Do you get the feeling that toddlers are suddenly at the helm over at the NHC?
00Z NOGAPS...
You picked a good spot OZ! Maybe you'll get that interview after all. Just don't put me on camera.
Its interesting, the speed increase really did push the models
Actually, she is improving dramatically with every stride she takes. She's wobbling some, but that's due more to the rapid intensification. I don't see much shear yet, but it could be coming. Unless she blows up like a nuclear bomb out there.
I agree.
Oh well...I won't have any leaves left on the trees.
Can't believe this...in November!
Yeah...it's being sheared some...
If there was no shear it would be perfectly symmetrical, notice how there's very poor(if any) outflow on the south western side, it it cant breathe out it cant intensify much.
NOGAPS...CMC and UKMET are on the western side of the guidance.
GFS(kind of in the middle). GFDL...HWRF and ECMWF are on the eastern side of the guidance.
330 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S.
INTERACTING WITH LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND MIDDLE GULF THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR STRONG NE TO E WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL STORM
IDA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17.1N 84.1W AT 3 AM CST
TRACKS NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IDA IS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 23.0N 87.1W BY LATE SUN
NIGHT...TO NEAR 26.5N 88.0W BY LATE MON NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING
NE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL NEAR 28.0N 86.5W BY LATE TUE NIGHT.
STRONG N WINDS WILL OVERTAKE THE WESTERN GULF BY WED.
I wonder if she becomes extra tropical would that mean it could draw in some cold air from the north
Interested to see what the NHC says if these model trends continue.
Looks like it could.
Weather is going to be awful throughout the entire northern gulf coast.
I hope it draws in an arctic front and pulls it through southern florida LOL I am getting tired of the 80S and 90S..
I hear ya. I don't blame you for wanting a weather change.
I've got 48.9 at my house....Crestview,FL...just to my west, has 37 degrees at the airport.
"MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL
GET STRETCHED BY ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE CONUS/CA
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT IS A GENERAL EASTERLY. IDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTH...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF...WITH MODERATE FLOW BECOMING STRONG
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. AS IDA
MOVES PAST CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE SUDNAY...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. THIS
IS LATER THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING...SO THE FARTHEST
NORTH POINT OF IDA`S TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
CENTER AND SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THE 34 KNOTS WINDS STILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA.".........
There's the reason for the shift in models.
lol wow I would do anything for your conditions, I mean its 78 here..
I'm surrounded by 2 lakes, so my temp stays up.
Here's a PWS about 6 miles from me....with pretty accurate readings...
WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Clear
38.2 °F
Clear
Windchill: 38 °F
Humidity: 99%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.16 in (Steady)
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
While Ida does look good, the lack outflow to its southwest is indicative of shear
She may look all impressive - but her banding is incredibly dodgy.
Haven't seen anything on it looking at models. NAM had something on it yesterday, but it's unreliable on tropical systems.
"Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 91 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 86.5 °F"
"Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F"
It should. Looks like the low west of it should help it ventilate some.
Hummmm I'DA never thought IDA get this far....
what makes me nervous is IKE - three letters starting w/ the letter I
IDA - three letters, starting with an I
Is this your BAD TWIN sister IKE?????
Mornin surfmom. You may finally get to ride some waves!
yes, it's looking that way - some groundswell - haven't seen any since last year... have had wave days - but they've been windswell.
GULFSTER SURF REPORT -
More gusty NE winds today will be ripe for the kiters and leave the Gulf very flat... again! Waking up today it feels a bit cooler out and with the wind feels, down right nice. West coast will remain flat through the weekend as all eyes on IDA, which was down graded after making land fall in Nica. The storm has held together and has reemerge back out over warm water and hopefully get its strength back up. Most models agree that she will move N and into the lower Gulf by Monday, after that their seems to be some disagreement in exactly what will become of her. Quite a few influences next week with a low riding along a cold front that drops into the Gulf bumping into Ida, , and coupled with moderate upper level sheer, she definitely will have her work cut out for her. We'll be keeping a close eye on her progress and keep you updated. Have a great weekend. Gulf Temp 79
While this year has been filled with shear...most late season tropical cyclones are subject to more shear and tend to be right handed. In other the most significant weather is on the right side of the circulation
*smile* well, I'm not about about the big breakers... though at this point my son is......
Just don't want to see any trouble for my Florida Friends..... I like a bit of a TS buoy rocker and then the system should go Kaput. Waves w/out guilt is my motto.
But as we all know, what we want and what Mother Nature hands out are two different things.
I'm rather surprised I'da never counted on this happening.
: (
take care - probably some crud a tourista' left behind... they leave their germs here all the time too!!
My thoughts on Ida are that Florida will see lots of wind and rain. The pressure gradient from the high over Florida and the low in the GOM will bring wind conditions. Now if she makes it back to hurricane status I don't know what she will do.
"Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure"
Two systems of tropical origin are being watched for impact in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and beyond. One or both systems will kick up winds, waves and rain in the region that potentially can disrupt commerce and lead to damaging flooding. The extent of these problems will depend on the strength and speed of Ida heading for the eastern Gulf and an unnamed system in the western Gulf.
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