Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.
The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.
Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.
Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hey, I've been rooting for you all day. :)
She is not quite halfway, looks to be about on track; noticed a wobble due north though at the end
The tide is added to or subtracted from the surge. ex. High tide +1 ft. surge +5 ft. total 6 ft.
Jesse
Crucial to when she does go north though.
Yep saw that, now we need to see if a trend follows.
The models can be and have been wrong before (not saying they will be here though)... believe they were for Hurricane Charley and other storms. We are talking about a storm that will be making an extratropical transition as the time of the curve as well.
I actually like the Panhandle landfall but a curve east is definitely possible.
Yeah, I just saw that on their website. Baldwin and Escambia (FL) are closed, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa are open. Crazy. By the time school lets out, the winds could be too high for buses to be out on the road.
I'm guessing they're just waiting the night and will decide early in the morning. Hopefully they'll think of families trying to keep their kids safe, rather than trying to squeeze another day of school in.
I remember that.....not this time....i don't like the camping outside with no Electricity or water for 5 days stuff....its not im my plans......LOL
Looks 1/2 way to these eyes .. looks to be accelerating.
Landfall I expect this to be around 85mph still.
actually looking at the loop, I am seeing a jog due north in the last few frames; have to see if that is temporary or the beginnings of that turn north
Living in Florida, I have been visiting these boards for years. I have rarely posted but have enough common sense to know that TampaSpin and a few others try very hard to offer solid information based on what they see.
Some of the most recent posts in response to TampaSpin's message are imbecilic at best.
Apologies for perhaps drawing a bit more attention to this than was necessary but I am sure most will agree that TampaSpin's posts are always well-written and welcomed by most.
Thank you for your time.
Very well said, I agree TampaSpin does a great job
I agree with this too..... Keep up with the great work TampaSpin....
Taco :0)
Do you foresee any severe weather tornado threat for Central FL should I keep my weather radio on tomorrow night and Tuesday? Or ids everything too far away for such a threat?
It apears to be an eye opening from what I'm seeing anyway...
Taco :0)
taco :0)
that is the eye
Has there been any Cantore sightings in Miss or Alabama?
no he means the two steering influences; one from the east (Ridge) and one from the west (Trough)
I agree..... Just wondering how much longer before HH get into her again....
Taco :0)
I might be reading this wrong, but it looks to me that Idas upper levels is splitting and moving NE while her LLC is moving NNW-N.. Anybody else seeing that she may finally be getting hammered by wind shear? Maybe it's just me.
He is in Mississippi. They have 5 crews along the Gulf Coast.
Interesting one to watch, Tim. As is often the case, timing is everything...LOL. I'm thinking the track actually looks pretty good although I see what you're saying as well.
I was looking at the shears and vorts and, interestingly, vorts are very well stacked from 850 up through 200 for a storm that's being sheared....I think thats probably why presentation on sats still looks as good as it does. She's holding her own still.
Keeping an close eye on this because I'm sure NOT going to walk to work (in at 5am Tuesday) if this is even a strong TS. Boyyyyyy howdy! LOL.....the 'joys' of life without wheels *smiles*
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