Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.
The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.
Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.
Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Morning... Pat...
NDBC
Location: 25.966N 85.594W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 9 Nov 2009 09:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 20.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (112°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.72 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 79.9 F
View Details - View History
Info from buoy 262 nm south of Panama City, FL
Morning...
Pat, it looks like you have been working overtime, thanks for all the info. Much needed and appreciated!!!.
congrats on the Saints !!!
Link
After the next HH pass I won't be surprised that pressure will be above 994 with lesser winds.
I expect it to range from 40 to 50 MPH by the time it gets to land... Due to friction I don't expect winds inland to be more than 40MPH with only higher gusts in showers.
Ah, I hadn't realized those deaths in El Salvador were attributable to Ida. We did, after all, have East Pacific disturbance 96E in that area as well.
Yeah, that's very unfortunate. Even one life lost is too much.
As I said, if Ida goes extratropical now, we may have some big surprises in the near future.
Saints found another way to win..
Im bout done here come sunrise.
Been a fun run watching this one.
Good to see her go Xtra and become less a threat for many
Sounds reasonable.
However, extratropical cyclones typically have large wind fields, and as such, even if sustained winds never exceed minimal tropcial storm force, if you have that kind of wind covering a large area, then you'll start to have problems, which is what I fear might happen here.
Ida will undergo extratropical transition on the 10th
If I don't get a chance to check in again later, u guys stay safe, esp. the WUbloggers from LA to the FL panhandle...
While she is undoubtedly undergoing extratropical transition, I can tell that she still, at least at present, retains some tropical characteristics -- the humid, eerie feel that is always present during a tropical cyclone is still evident outside.
Complete transition will likely take a few more hours.
G'day.
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
IDA,Steering Layer 300-850mb - West Atlantic - Latest Available
Theodore, Al. here
zip code 36582
Winds 1 mph
overcast
looks a lot different than 9 pm last night
Jesse
Have a good one Pat. I'm not too far behind. :)
It was.:)
That last 2 hours of sleep was the best.
Its tied to a surface trough along the tail end of a dying frontal boundary. Models are developing the area into a hybrid system the same way they did with 96L.
Some models even show the system moving NW and merging with Ida as she exits the East Coast.
The models agree that the system will head NW or WNW and agree it become absorbed either by Ida or a cold front.
I see that.
Winds are gusting to tropical storm force on almost all buoys in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico with the highest at 42003 - 47 mph
We also have 14-18 ft seas being reported.
Lol. I'm glad. :)
It's delivering some heavy showers here in the islands.
Its nice and cool right now.
yea
humidity
NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IDA 11L
INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 9
FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)
HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -87.50 LAT: 24.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -87.70 LAT: 26.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -87.70 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -87.60 LAT: 29.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -87.30 LAT: 30.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 31.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -86.30 LAT: 31.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -85.50 LAT: 32.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -84.90 LAT: 32.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -84.20 LAT: 31.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -83.60 LAT: 31.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -83.00 LAT: 30.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -82.70 LAT: 29.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
STORM DISSIPATED AT 72.0 HOURS AT ABOVE POSITION.
FORECAST WAS RUN COUPLED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
GFDL
HOUR: .0 LONG: -87.56 LAT: 24.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.13
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -88.07 LAT: 25.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.82
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -88.28 LAT: 27.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.29
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -88.27 LAT: 28.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.82
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -88.27 LAT: 28.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.43
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -87.81 LAT: 29.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.02
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -87.03 LAT: 29.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.39
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -86.22 LAT: 29.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.05
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -85.68 LAT: 29.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.04
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -85.05 LAT: 29.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.29
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -84.21 LAT: 28.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.75
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -83.19 LAT: 28.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.70
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -82.05 LAT: 27.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.30 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.76
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -80.91 LAT: 28.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.90
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.77 LAT: 28.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.44
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.15 LAT: 29.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.97
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -78.61 LAT: 29.43 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.30
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -78.78 LAT: 30.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.29
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -78.59 LAT: 30.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.15
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -79.06 LAT: 30.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.85
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -79.72 LAT: 30.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 21.81
-99.9 -99.90 -99.90
We are 7 miles from Pensaola NAS, we'll stay put - concern is the office, there high wter on a rainy day.
Ike do you have high tide link by any chance?
What really is the difference?
Sporadic outages
downed trees
heavy rains
heavy winds
high surf
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