A new record minimum for arctic sea ice
Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum during the first half of November, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (Figure 1). The record low ice extent this month is the first extended period of record minimum arctic sea ice since 2007. The new record minimum suggests that the gains in ice seen over the past two years were probably a temporary fluctuation due to normal year-to-year variability in the weather, and that the long-term arctic sea ice decline observed since the 1970s is continuing.
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent up to November 16, 2009, compared to the record low year of 2007 and the average from 1979 - 2000. Sea ice extent over the past ten days has fallen below the record minimum observed in 2007. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
What caused the new record low?
The record low was due to very warm air invading the Arctic during October, in combination with the unusually warm ocean temperatures that have prevailed in the region over the past few decades. The warm air temperatures were primarily the result of an intense series of low pressure systems in the Arctic Ocean, north of Siberia, that worked in concert with a very strong high pressure system north of Alaska to drive warm air from Central Asia poleward over the past six weeks. The strong storms and unusual pressure pattern brought winds of about 5 mph above average to large regions of the Arctic Ocean, which helped break up existing ice and kept ice from freezing as much as usual. With all that warm air flowing into the Arctic, the cold air that was there had to go somewhere else, and that "somewhere else" was North America. The U.S. recorded its 3rd coldest October on record in 2009, thanks to cold air flowing out of the Arctic. The temperature and sea level pressure patterns over the Northern Hemisphere for October (Figure 2) were highly anomalous, with temperatures up to 27°F (15°C) above average over the Arctic Ocean, and sea level pressures up to 11 mb above average. The atmospheric circulation pattern has shifted over the past two weeks, with the result that warm air from Central Asia is no longer being pumped into the Arctic so vigorously, nor is cold air from the Arctic streaming southward into North America. As a result, temperature anomalies in the Arctic are beginning to decline, and sea ice extent later this month will probably rise above the record minimums observed in 2007.
Figure 2. Departure of surface air temperature and surface pressure from average for October 2009. Surface temperatures in the Arctic were up to 27°F (15°C) above average over the Arctic Ocean, due to sea ice loss. The strongest anomalies occurred where sea ice was missing from its usual position, though the entire Arctic was affected. The clockwise flow of air around the anomalously strong high pressure system north of Alaska (labeled "H" in the right-hand image) helped drive a flow of very warm air from Central Asia into the Arctic, and a very cold flow of air out of the Arctic southward into North America. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
How will the November sea ice loss affect next summer's sea ice loss?
A record 19% of the Arctic sea ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. In the summer of 2009, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that mean winter arctic ice thickness declined by 48% between 1980 and 2008. The loss accelerated over the past five years, with the ice losing 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) of thickness between 2004 and 2008, finishing at 6.2 feet thick. This remarkable thinning was confirmed in May 2009 by the Catlin Arctic Survey, a 9-week, 435 km expedition across the Canadian Arctic led by polar scientist Professor Peter Wadhams of the University of Cambridge. Wadhams' expedition found that most of the route had first year ice just 5.9 feet (1.8 meters) thick. With El Niño conditions crossing from the moderate to strong category over the past two weeks in the Eastern Pacific, the prospects for a much warmer than usual winter in the Arctic have increased, likely setting the stage for continued record or near-record minimum sea ice extent and thickness into next spring. The arctic sea ice will be very vulnerable to a new record minimum next summer if warmer than average temperatures are seen over the Arctic.
Sea ice loss causes stronger storms in the Arctic
The stronger storms over the Arctic Ocean this fall were due, in part, to the loss of sea ice. In a 2009 article titled, Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008, Simmonds and Keay found that September storms over the East Arctic intensified by about 1 mb over the past 30 years and had grown about 50 miles larger in diameter, thanks to all the extra heat energy supplied by more open water due to recent losses in Arctic sea ice. These stronger storms may create a positive feedback loop that will lead to even more sea ice loss: reduced sea ice drives stronger storms, whose winds break up sea ice, creating even more warm water to feed stronger storms with stronger winds, and so on. Now that the arctic sea ice is 48% thinner than 30 years ago, this effect will increase in importance, since thinner ice breaks up more readily in strong winds.
Expect an ice-free Arctic by 2030
In a press release put out by the Catlin Arctic Survey, Professor Wadhams said, "The Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus view--based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperatures, winds and especially ice composition--that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, and that much of the decrease will be happening within 10 years". In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, National Snow and Ice Data Center Director and Senior Scientist Dr. Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". At the December 2008 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting, the world's largest climate change conference, sea ice expert Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski of the Navy Postgraduate School blamed 60% of the melting during the past decade on heat brought in by ocean currents, and projected that summertime arctic sea ice would completely disappear by 2016. Dr. Jim Overland of NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory was more conservative, projecting a 2030 demise of arctic sea ice. He thought we would be "hanging around where we are for a while", and thought it would take two more unusual summers like the "perfect storm" of 2007 to push the system to an ice-free state.
The consequences
There were 88 presentations on arctic sea ice at the 2008 AGU conference. None of the presenters expressed the view that the current long-term decline in arctic sea ice was almost entirely natural, or that we can expect the decline to reverse this century. Sea ice experts do blame part of the decline on natural variability in the weather, but we wouldn't be where we are now without the warming caused by human-emitted greenhouse gases. One view (Stroeve et al., 2007) is that human-emitted greenhouse gases are responsible for 47 - 57% of the arctic sea ice loss since 1979. Heat-absorbing black soot from fires and pollution settling on the white ice is thought to also be a significant contributor.
The consensus I heard at the AGU conference among arctic sea ice experts was that the summertime sea ice will be gone by 2030. If they are correct, we can expect a period of significantly accelerated global climate change to begin 10 - 20 years from now. Arctic sea ice is one of the critical components maintaining the stability of our current climate. Once the the ice is gone, the climate will become unstable, with highly unpredictable results. It is true that Earth's past has many examples of warmer climates that evolved due to natural causes where life flourished, and we shouldn't fear the new, stable climate we will eventually arrive at centuries from now. However, life on Earth is adapted to the current climate. The changes that will occur during the transition will be extremely disruptive to Earth's ecosystems and the humans that rely on them for life. If one were to rate the destructive capability of climate change the way we rate hurricanes, I would rate current climate change at the "Invest" or "tropical disturbance" stage--the climate change storm is just beginning to organize. But the coming climate change storm is destined to hit our children with the full fury of intensifying hurricane.
References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009, "Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958-2008", Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035
Simmonds, I., and K. Keay (2009), Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19715, doi:10.1029/2009GL039810.
Stroeve, J., M.M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze, Arctic sea ice decline:Faster than forecast", GRL 34 L09501, doi:1029/2007GL029703, 2007.
The road to Copenhagen
By some accounts, the future of the world will be at stake this December, when the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge. Dr. Ricky Rood, author of Wunderground's climate change blog, will be there, and Wunderground has given the University of Michigan a grant to send a student who will also blog for us. I have a number of posts I'm planning in the run-up to Copenhagen, including:
- Impact of arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere winter weather
- The Manufactured Doubt industry
- What global warming skeptics say about arctic sea ice
- Is higher CO2 more beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?
I'll also have an end-of-hurricane season summary on November 30, plus posts on whatever breaking weather stories occur. My next post will be Friday, when I plan to summarize the global weather last month, which was the 2nd - 6th warmest October on record.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The new record minimum suggests that the gains in ice seen over the past two years were probably a temporary fluctuation due to normal year-to-year variability in the weather
BUT.....
The record low was due to very warm air invading the Arctic during October, in combination with the unusually warm ocean temperatures that have prevailed in the region over the past few decades
Not starting a debate on this, but it seems we are returning to the norm by way of very unusual temperature departures.
Hopefully, discussing issues brought up by GW skeptics will mollify them a bit. (I doubt it, though)
That having been said, does it make sense to wait longer to address what is preceived to be a problem? I myself am not conviced about the extent of man's influence in the increase in temps, but it only makes sense environmentally to look for better ways to provide energy that have a lower profile, impact wise, to increasing the amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases produced. By the way, GW is an ugly phrase and misleading based on connotation...given a certain relatively steady rise in temps, this difference can be evidenced by wildly varying events; a colder, bitter winter here, a far warmer winter there...the atmosphere is large enough and complex enough that you won't see a steady overall change but rather a number of "bounces" eventually equalling out. Remember also that the weather we see is, in an over-simplified way, the atmosphere trying to reach equilibrium...all systems move towards entropy and the atmosphere is no different; it's trying to reach an homogenous overall condition
Very interesting stuff.
Natural reaction is to prepare but, for what? And, will it make any difference? 10 to 20 years from now is a significant jump from what was previously thought.
Seems that living life in a normal way with a goal to reduce our impacts on climate change and a healthy education is the way to go.
And even if GW is total baloney, it is still in our enlightened best interests to reduce our footprint if for no reason than to make things better for our kids. Imagine what living in a large city 200 years ago was like. Would you want to do that? Pollution reduction is the right thing regardless of Arctic Ice.
I haven't heard any mention of the negative feedback from a weaker Gulf Stream. If the arctic is warmer, that should slow currents along the bottom of the Atlantic, slow surface warm currents, and lead to at least one colder force on the Arctic.
Yes?
So if the climate is changing and we are adapted to the way it is, then change the adaptation to the way it will be.
Weatherman's rule number two: If the weatherman says it is not going to rain, look outside first before leaving your umbrella at home.
No matter how sure these guys think they are and no matter how much they think doubters are raining on their parade, there is much more evidence to doubt a weatherman. I'm not being mean, it is just a fact. So if I am going to get roped into something based on what weathermen predict I'll want a big umbrella.
Based on what I have seen the US puts far less carbon into the atmosphere per unit of fuel used that just about anywhere in the world. China and the 3rd world are the biggest offenders and also the biggest contributors. Slow them down till they can deal with this at the same level that the US is currently doing and you will have a huge reduction in carbon if that is even a problem.
Well put, Conch...you're an intelligent man
To some degree, the size of the dataset doesn't matter; we are having some larger or smaller impact on the process beyond any shdow of a doubt and we do need to figure out a way of reducing that effect.
Where the data becomes important is when the "sky is falling" crowd tries to quantify the effect and put a timeline for catastrophe together, or where the "it's a hoax" crowd tries to refute the "sky is falling" bunch...
The friction here is caused by the ones that don't really care, one way or the other...there will always be those that throw red paint on fur coats and those that make fur coats because there's money in them...the rest of us get to reap the whirlwind in a way for their inability to come to some agrrement. Some just live for the struggle, while others struggle to live (wow, how glib was that?)
A very good point...
Are We on the Brink of a 'New Little Ice Age? Last updated: September 3, 2009'
Well said 451. Yes they can take core borings of the earths crust, ice formations, trees and etc. But with the newer instruments that can detect .000000001 degree or what ever measurment today when 100 years ago very few instruments could detect within 1 degree. In addition, the instruments are pretty much world wide now as 100 years ago were isolated.
As you can see, there has been some warmer air intrusion over the last few weeks...
Right now, we drive vehicles that waste (at best) 70% of the energy they produce. Most of that energy lost is in the form of heat. We are using energy stored up in the form of hydrocarbons at a rate MUCH higher than how quickly it can form. We have yet as a society to find an efficent way to capture our most plentiful energy source, which is sunlight. Wind power and tidal power is an efficient power generator, but it is highly inefficient for energy generation. Nuclear power, while it is very efficient at generating power, it also produces waste that is an extreme biohazard for dozens of years.
JUST looking at energy generation, we are woefully inefficient. Add in the costs of increased pollution, such as healthcare and natural habitat destruction, and we are on a path from which nothing good can come.
j/k :)
oh wait...the world ends in three! that take a few things off of my plate :)
With a general consensus of the Arctic being free of ice in 10 to 20 years one can draw explicit conclusions as to the outcome. The lack of sea ice is a visible, occuring feature. Weather it's a result of GW or not, it's happening, that much is for sure.
On November 28, 2008, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported that the Canadian Coast Guard confirmed the first commercial ship sailed through the Northwest Passage. In September 2008, the MV Camilla Desgagnés, owned by Desgagnés Transarctik Inc. and, along with the Arctic Cooperative, is part of Nunavut Sealift and Supply Incorporated (NSSI),[54] transported cargo from Montreal to the hamlets of Cambridge Bay, Kugluktuk, Gjoa Haven and Taloyoak. A member of the crew is reported to have claimed that "there was no ice whatsoever". Shipping from the east is to resume in the fall of 2009.[55] Although sealift is an annual feature of the Canadian Arctic this is the first time that the western communities have been serviced from the east. The western portion of the Canadian Arctic is normally supplied by Northern Transportation Company Limited (NTCL) from Hay River. The eastern portion by NNSI and NTCL from Churchill and Montreal.[56][57]
I may be in the minority, but I refuse to alter my lifestyle to "save" the planet. Al Gore is a hypocrite every time he flies his jet at 30K feet or gets a ride in his Expedition, but wait he's not driving. I have children and I am a meteorolgist, but the past generations didn't think about my generation to get this point and neither will I. I feel advancement in technology will eventually "catch up" to the politically driven global warming and will right itself in the next few hundred years.
BTW, Flood we'll be praying for a speedy recovery for you! Good luck my friend.
Because of this my rugby game was canceled today due to a flooded pitch. We haven't been able to train on our accustomed pitch for over 2 weeks now (has been flooded for said period) and had to go to another one but this one is now also flooded.
The storm is pretty bad. Several roads in Wales have been closed due to flooding since the early morning hours and the weather station in Capel Curig has recorded gusts up to 81 mph (10 min average 51 mph).
So if you ask me, there is definitely something going on. I wouldn't call it GW although the temperatures are continuously above November averages. The biggest issue for the UK won't be the rise in temperature (I would actually welcome an additional 2-3 degrees on average, then I wouldn't have to put on my heating for most of the year, thus saving energy) but the flooding.
We had tremendous flooding in three consecutive years
2007 (see BBC link) (see wikipedia article about the flood), see photo and video collection about the flooding
2008 (January in Yorkshire, Leicestershire Worcestershire; August and September across the Northern UK)
and now this year again flooding, the period of very wet weather starting nearly 3 weeks ago with a flood warning on November 1 until the recent warnings of today: BBC News on the storm here in Wales.
Other notable floodings in this decade include the Glasgow flooding 2002, Boscastle flooding 2004 and the Carlisle flood 2005.
If the trend continues in the same way we might have to switch from rugby to water polo by converting our pitches to pools or start playing rugby indoors.
Nice little interactive site from google
(tee hee)
wow...seriously, how does this further the discussion? how can ideas be exchanged with that kind of rhetoric?
exactly...well put, Jeff
Oh and pearland, movie trivia question: Which film does this come from:"Spoken like a true smarta$$!"
LOL
Let us all know when Greenland becomes a green land mass again.... I'll need a place to go into exile to escape the Cap & Trade taxes!
You're entitled to your opinion, but closing your eyes just makes the timing of the crash a mystery, it doesn't prevent it form happening.
Also, do you write checks for items before you know he money is in the account? Science hasn't caught up and if it doesn't you're writing a pretty big rubber check...
Thanks, Hurricanejunky!
DING!DING!DING!
Thank you for playing...
I'm not closing my eyes to anything, I am very well aware of what the media is shoving down our throats about global warming. Hell, I'm part of the media, but I don't agree with it. Going back to P451 comment about data set, why are we basing the recent "warming" and increase in CO2 levels on about 100 years or so. Do we really know what happenned in 1250 or in 1367 with regards to the earth's CO2 level and temperature. Ice core samples are just one measure and really don't have anything to compare it to.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number EIGHTEEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER ANJA (04-20092010)
16:00 PM RĂ©union November 18 2009
=========================================
At 12:00 PM, Tropical Disturbance, Former Anja (1003 hPa) located at 21.6S 66.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south-southeast at 15 knots
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 26.9S 71.1E - 30 kts (se Comblant)
24 HRS: 30.4S 76.1E - (se Dissipant)
Additional Information
========================
The still fairly well defined low level vortex is now speeding up towards the south-southeast within the northwestern flow ahead of the cold front. Convection has not restarted over the center since more than 12 hours, consequently the system is now downgraded to a tropical disturbance status with maximum sustained winds of 25 knots. No major change in the general philosophy of the forecast: ANJA should merge within the cold front located to its southwest.
THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS
But I go with the Data,..as those Co2 and Co3 ,methane and pollutant "Fairies" that some think come out every night and scrub the Atmosphere clean with their Harry Potter wands,are slightly overwhelmed by Mans 24/7/365 assault on our atmosphere.
Copenhagen at Dusk..
LOL j/k :)
While the second part of your statement regarding finite amount of energy is correct, the first is wrong. Newtonian Physics assumes that matter and energy cannot interconvert. Einsteinian Physics, via relativity, showed that matter and energy can be interconverted. This is the basis of nuclear power.
Regarding the loss of Arctic Sea ice and storms being a positive feedback loop, I am not sure that this is correct. Stronger storms clearly break up sea ice. But, they also have two other effects - they will cool the ocean surface more rapidly due to enhanced evaporative cooling via increased wind speeds and, potentially, enhanced convective processes. The cooling effect would provide a negative feedback brake on warming. Also, depending upon the precise wave and ice conditions, they can stack pieces of sea ice, creating effectively thicker sea ice and increasing the rate of new sea ice formation on the open water as compared to ice-covered water.
Seems to me, that the general consensus is "well, there is no evidence to convince me as yet so it's all bunk. A Conspiracy even."
So carry on regardless. Someone else will deal with it. The status quo rules. Onward to more of the same.
I saw a comment yesterday, saying that the cost to convert to Metric would be too expensive, and all factories that make everything in the US would have to re-tool to "comply".
Excuse me?? The whole world is Metric, and I for one still buy the same sized sheet of plywood as before. Sizes do not change, just the method of measurement.
Fear of change is a real thing., for sure.
But I cannot understand why some people are so scarred of changing anything at all.
And pollutants, deforestation, waste, water supply and food supply are real issues that relate to weather, climate, and observed warming.
And food and water may be the first things to start to trouble people. It's not about how many hours we drive our cars. There are bigger issues involved.
CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY
1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 801
Washington, DC 20036-2000
The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to
A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes
To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at River City Plaza, next to Mardi Gras World
1380 Port of New Orleans Place
2 p.m. Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy
2:15 2:45 p.m. Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center (invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile
2:45 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes. Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations (invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.
4:00 4:30 p.m. The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member of LSU%u2019s Stephenson Disaster Management Institute; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of International Cuba Society
4:30 4:45 p.m. President Obama's Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment. Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates
4:45 5:00 p.m. Shared Ecosystems: Opportunities for Increasing Environmental Cooperation and Collaboration between Cuba and the United States. Dan Whittle, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund.
5:00 6:00 p.m. Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize to advance our objectives. Mr. Ky Luu, the Director of the Tulane University Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy, will have the first comment.
6:00 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion
The Center for International Policy wishes to express its appreciation to
Atlantic Philanthropies for the support which made this conference possible
How to get there:
Our conference is being held in the Iberville Reception Room in the River City Complex, next to the new Mardi Gras World site, which is not to be confused with Blaine Kerns Mardi Gras World on the West Bank. The new location is situated at the Upriver end of the Convention Center just beneath the Mississippi River Bridge, also known as the Crescent City Connection right next to the Port of New Orleans.
If arriving by I-90, exit Tchoupitoulas Street and drive Upriver following the signs to the Port Terminal. From Tchoupitoulas, turn onto Henderson Street, the long avenue lined with palm trees leading to the entrance to the Port of New Orleans and Mardi Gras World. Turn right upon arrival at Mardi Gras World and follow the signs to the Hurricane Conference. The River City Complex is at the far end of the Mardi Gras building. Park free and enter from the river side of the building to the Iberville Reception Room where our conference is being held.
it did so much to foster discussion! LOL
just messin' with ya :)
I agree with your last sentence, mostly! (Exception perhaps for the politically driven part...) I'm not a Pollyanna, but try to be a half-glass full kind of person, because good things can and are still happening. We must refuse to give in to gloom and doom, or we will perish.
This is a GREAT article. Intertwines with sustainable development.
In Amazon (Brazilian Rain Forest), a Frustrated Search for Cancer Cures
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