Globe has 2nd - 7th warmest October on record; U.S., 3rd coldest
The globe recorded its sixth warmest October since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2009 as the 2nd warmest October on record, falling 0.06°C short of the record set in 2005, while the UK HADCRUT3 data set rated October the 7th warmest (this data set does not include most of the Arctic, Antarctic, and Africa, where there are few land stations). NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - October 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The October satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th - 7th warmest on record. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies were the 5th warmest on record.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Third coldest and top wettest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average October temperature was 4.0°F below average, making it the 3rd coldest October in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold was centered in the Midwest, where Oklahoma had its coolest October on record and ten other states had a top five coolest October. The nationwide precipitation of 4.15 inches was nearly double the long-term average of 2.11 inches. Three states (Iowa, Arkansas, and Louisiana) saw their record wettest October. Fourteen other states had precipitation readings ranking in their top five category. Only three states (Florida, Utah, and Arizona) saw below normal precipitation. Arkansas continued its remarkable run of wetness in 2009. The state has seen four months with top three precipitation ranks this year (May, 1st wettest; July, 3rd wettest; September, 2nd wettest; October, 1st wettest). As a result, the state's year-to-date average is the wettest in 115 years of record keeping. This contrasted with persistent dryness in Arizona, which saw its second-driest year-to-date period.
U.S. drought decreases
At the end of October, 12% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the second-smallest drought footprint of the decade, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Major drought episodes in California and South Texas improved significantly. Drought conditions emerged across much of Arizona. About 45% of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of October, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity). This is the largest such footprint since February 2005.
As I commented in a post earlier this year, drought, on average, has not been increasing in the U.S. over the past few decades. The exception is the Southwest U.S. Increased drought is my top concern in regards to the potential effects of climate change over the next 40 years, and I am pleased to see that so far we have not seen increased drought in the U.S. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. thusly: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."
However, drought may be increasing for the world as a whole. Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from about 12% to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. I've neglected drought in my blogs, and plan to do a thorough investigation and report on the latest research now that hurricane season is over.
U.S. fire activity
October, like September, saw below-normal fire activity in all respects. A total of 3,207 fires burned about 158,000 acres in October, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center. Each of these values is below this decade's average for October.
Strong El Niño conditions develop
El Niño conditions intensified from moderate to strong over the tropical Eastern Pacific in October. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.7°C above average on November 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. El Niño conditions appear to have stabilized over the past week, and no further intensification of El Niño is likely for the remainder of November. Model forecasts favor moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2009 - 2010.
October sea ice extent in the Arctic 2nd lowest on record
October 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. During the first two weeks of November, Arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record low ice extent this month is the first extended period of record minimum Arctic sea ice since 2007. The new record minimum suggests that the gains in ice seen over the past two years were probably a temporary fluctuation due to normal year-to-year variability in the weather, and that the long-term Arctic sea ice decline observed since the 1970s is continuing.
Figure 2. Departure of Arctic sea ice from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711
Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.
Next post
I'm working on a rather lengthy analysis of the global warming scientist vs. skeptic controversy, including last week's hacked email affair. I'll post it when I get it done, most likely on Tuesday, but perhaps Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Umm... if the waters on earth have risen, then why hasn't the Hudson Bay gotten larger and the Great Lakes--two of which are missing in the rendering. I guess the orange on the west coast is California on fire. I'm also wondering what the anomaly is off the Maine coast--Atlantis rising?
I agree that they are clearly depicting +2, but cannot tell about +3.
It seems unlikely that they would use pure air temps over land and pure H2O temps over the oceans as the two really are not comparable directly. if they are, then there should be a shelf at the continental boundaries. There probably is some processing of the data to make it more meaningful. I also think that the coastal regions are problematic because air temperatures are so much more variable than ocean temperatures.
I wish I had the time to understand what they are really doing to create the chart.
Guess that data message at 00 Z was the last such message...
Bye, bye QuikScat. Your valuable data will be missed.
7:49 PM GMT on November 23, 2009
It would have been nice if all the hurricanes were spinning counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere on the cover of Al Gore's book! That's some bad science Mr. Gore is putting in front of kids.
Jeff Masters
Another issue is whether they are correcting for known oceanic oscillations such as discussed in this link regarding the N. Pacific. (I live much closer to Orca than you.)
Link
Now, let's hope Quikscat gets replaced...
Dr. Masters i have a question. You always post graphs about the declining sea ice, but i never see a graph of rising antarctic ice, now to me as a conscious observer it seems biased to show one but not the other. Is there a reason you do that?
All that money spent of publishing the book and he cant even make the cover look believable. Truly Sad.
Seismic Monitor
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
Rapid subtropical North Atlantic salinity oscillations across Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles
North Atlantic Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycle Salinity Reconstructions
SMOS Satellite Instrument Comes Alive
ScienceDaily (Nov. 19, 2009)
I can't speak for Dr. Masters, but bear in mind that the Arctic is more vulnerable to melting due to its proximity to land and limited stability current-wise. (Antartica is anchored to a continent and has a fairly consistent current surrounding it. The same cannot be said for the Arctic.)
Also, Antartica is not immune to melting, as there have been several ice shelves that have broken up lately. It just has a greater resistance. Think of the arctic as the "canary in a coal mine" due to its vulnerability.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FIVE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BONGANI (05-20092010)
22:00 PM Réunion November 23 2009
=========================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bongani (998 hPa) located at 9.3S 53.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 7 knots
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5
Gale-Force Winds
==================
Near the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant
Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the northern quadrant and up to 60 NM from the center within the southwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.1S 52.0E - 40 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 10.3S 51.1E - 45 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 10.4S 49.1E - 60 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 11.6S 46.2E - 80 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
Additional Information
========================
The system remains of small size, and seems under going a temporary southeasterly constraint, (Last SSMSI 1413z shows the center south east of the edge of the convection), but last satellite infrared imagery shows building convection near the center.
BONGANI is currently located on the northwestern edge of a mid level ridge and a weakness within this ridge can be seen along 50E. For the next 12 hours, this weakness should allow a slower southwestward track as the STR rebuilt tuesday night, system should accelerate a little bit west southwestward
All environmental factors continue to look favorable for intensification according to CIMSS data (MIMIC-TPW), the dry air present to the southwest of the system should remain te limiting factor for intensification during the next hours. Up to 36-48 hours, intensification is expectedto go on, with a building poleward outflow.. due to an approaching subtropical jet in the south.
All interest in the Fahquar Archipelago, northern tip of Madagascar, Comoros Archipelago, and Mayotte Island should still closely monitor the progress of this system
Tropical Depression "URDUJA" has accelerated and is heading towards Visayas.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
===============================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 10.2ºN 126.0ºE or 70 kms east northeast of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.
Signal Warnings
================
Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)
Luzon Region
==============
1.Masbate
Visayas Region
-------------
1.Eastern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Biliran
4.Leyte Provinces
5.Cebu
6.Camotes Island
7.Bohol
8.Negros Provinces
9.Aklan
10.Capiz
11.Antique
12.Iloilo
13.Guimaras
Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Camiguin
2.Agusan del Norte
3.Surigao del Norte
4.Surigao del Sur
5.Dinagat
6.Siargao Island
Additional Information
========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas under PSWS # 1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (T0922)
3:00 AM JST November 24 2009
===========================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nida (998 hPa) located at 9.0N 146.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knot with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 7 knots
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southern quardrant
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 09.7N 143.0E - 45 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 11.9N 140.9E - 55 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 14.6N 139.1E - 60 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
i realize that, but he can still show both sides, and even though ice shelves are breaking off, more ice is forming as the field continues to grow
VASitRep't 11-23-09
If I looked this over correctly (always please feel free to correct me, I have little pride in this area) -- the DelMarVa will escape high winds, but might be in for a precip event, possibly of the frozen variety (whether it be freezing rain, sleet, or snow is a ?)
Any guesses how much? Don't mean to be geocentric, but you know the coastline has already been walloped.
Interesting to note: That graph looks a lot like one I saw in a college sociology class. The value of the American dollar (blue line) vs the average amount of income per American(Red Line)
Global Warming or Global Cooling? What is Coming?
November 19, 2009
Some folks and their. Obsession with Gore amuse me. He may be many things but he's only a man, not evil incarnate. If he were so damn powerful you can better bet some schmuck with a desk jammed in the corner wouldn't get to muck up the cover of his book.
In the trenches on climate change, hostility among foes
Stolen e-mails reveal venomous feelings toward skeptics
By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Link
Christopher Horner, a senior fellow at the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute who has questioned whether climate change is human-caused, blogged that the e-mails have "the makings of a very big" scandal. "Imagine this sort of news coming in the field of AIDS research," he added.
Thank you, will be looking forward to your post.
Seriously, it's just a book cover. Children's books usually have impressionist/abstract covers. The stars are a perfect example - they're not meant to be a realistic portray of a star, rather they give the impression of a star.
I think Mr. Gore has done plenty to ruin his credibility. This book isn't even needed to further the argument. Like kicking a dead horse.
Thanks, phew, to the point and short, and you saved me some bucks!
LOL.
Is it just the COVER that's the "bad" science, or the whole book?
So many people are reviewing the cover. Has anyone read it yet? Or if it shows up on your kids reading list (and it will, guaranteed), will you allow your child to read it - and discuss where it's wrong?
Real science allows a discussion, right?
Tropical Depression "URDUJA" is now moving closer to Leyte.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
===============================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 10.4ºN 125.3ºE or in the vicinity of Dinagat has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.
Signal Warnings
================
Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)
Luzon Region
==============
1.Masbate
2.Romblon
Visayas Region
-------------
1.Eastern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Biliran
4.Leyte Provinces
5.Cebu
6.Camotes Island
7.Bohol
8.Negros Provinces
9.Aklan
10.Capiz
11.Antique
12.Iloilo
13.Guimaras
Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Camiguin
2.Agusan del Norte
3.Surigao del Norte
4.Surigao del Sur
5.Dinagat
6.Siargao Island
Additional Information
========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas under PSWS # 1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Tropical Disturbance Summary (1200z 23NOV)
=============================================
An area of convection (95B) located at 4.9N 91.6E or 215 NM west of the northern tip of Sumatra. Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates cyclonic turning of deep convection over a developing low level circulation center. A 0336z ASCAT pass reveals 20-25 knot winds wrapping into the sytsem center from the southeast quadrant. Environmental analysis indicates the system is located equatorward of the subtropical ridge axis in an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear and has limited outflow aloft
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1009 MB. Due to increased convective consolidation, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
Nope, Reed thinks it should be named. IDA know what to call it though.
Damn.
Secretary of defense got me already.
How are we going to survive next year on here!!
'ATHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THERE IS INCONCLUSIVE DATA TO PROVE THERE IS A FULLY CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION DUE TO THE LACK OF THE QUICKSCAT SATELLITE, SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING HELD OFF AT THIS TIME.'
The blog will go nuts if we see the above text from the NHC. If it was a perfect world, another QuickScat would be shot up on a Delta IV medium out of Cape Canaveral tomorrow and would be expected to last to 2020.
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