Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The embattled director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU), Dr. Phil Jones, announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director. An independent review of his conduct in light of the emails illegally hacked from his computers last month is in progress. In a press release, Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support".
The University and the police are investigating the break-in, and it is currently unknown if this was the act of an insider or an external break-in. I think it is highly unlikely this was the work of an insider in a whistle-blower type of action, since a computer at realclimate.org was hacked into the same week (via a computer in Turkey), and the criminal attempted to upload the emails stolen from CRU to the realclimate.org server. This is not the sort of action a whistleblower would do. Dr. Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org said in a comment yesterday that the CRU break-in appeared to have been done from the outside, into a backup mail server. It is unlikely the hacker acted alone, since hackers aren't typically intimately familiar with the details of the climate change science debate. The emails and code stolen were selectively culled by someone who appeared to have considerable expertise in climate science.
What did Dr. Jones do wrong?
So, what did Dr. Jones do wrong? For starters, he should have confronted the allegations raised by his critics immediately and talked candidly to the press about some of the specific accusations being made. For example, one of the emails contained the statement that he would like to "redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is" to exclude two questionable papers from the IPCC report. Well, that's not something a good scientist should seriously advocate, and is an impossibility, in any case. No one can redefine the peer-reviewed literature, since the rules for this are well-established an not subject to change. When I read the comment in the context it was made, it reads as a joke. There is no discussion in the hacked emails about how to go about redefining the peer-reviewed literature. In the end, the two papers Jones was referring to with this comment, McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003), ended up being cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. Those intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming are spinning the comment differently, creating a controversy about something that is impossible to do, and was not being seriously suggested. Jones should have immediately spoken up to quash the hype on this comment.
The "trick" to "hide the decline"
Another area of concern is over a graph Dr. Jones helped construct in 1999 showing the "hockey stick" of Earth's surface temperature going back 1,000 years. This graph combined instrumental measurements made since the 1800s with older paleoclimate data (including data from tree rings) to show a continuous 1,000 year record of Earth's temperatures. The paleoclimate data after 1960 show a bogus decline in Earth's temperatures that does not agree with what modern thermometers have been measuring, due to a well-known variation in tree ring thickness as a function of time, referred to as "the decline". Thus, Jones elected to toss out the bogus paleoclimate data (using a "trick" to "hide the decline") rather than present it in the graph. The graph was not properly labeled to show this was done, so viewers of the graph would have had needed to be familiar with a 1998 paper published in Nature or the 1999 paper referenced in the caption on the graph, which explained this well-known data issue. The graph that Jones used his "trick" on was put into a 1999 report called the "WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate". The report was given to policy makers, but was never published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. No reputable climate scientist believes that the paleoclimate data since 1960 is of higher quality than the instrumental record (this is discussed in detail in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC report). In order to make the "hokey stick" graph less confusing, removing "the decline" from the tree ring data is a reasonable thing to do--provided one labels the graph properly. The graph was not properly labeled. Does Jones' "trick" and failure to properly label the graph constitute data falsification, or was it merely sloppy science? The hacked emails contain no suggestions that the "trick" was done to intentionally fool people, and the "trick" never appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, including the IPCC reports. In Dr. Jones' words, "This is well-known and is called the "decline" or "divergence". The use of the term "hiding the decline" was in an email written in haste. CRU has not sought to hide the decline. Indeed, CRU has published a number of articles that both illustrate, and discuss the implications of, this recent tree-ring decline, including the article that is listed in the legend of the WMO Statement figure".
Figure 1. The WMO 1999 "hockey stick" figure (top) with climate reconstructions and instrumental temperatures merged, and a version (bottom) with the climate reconstructions (coloured) and instrumental temperatures (annual & summer in black) shown separately. Note "the decline" in the temperature obtained from tree ring data (green curve) in the bottom curve. Image credit: University of East Anglia.
Global warming contrarians are spinning the "trick" as reason to discredit the "hockey stick", claiming that the data was falsified to hide the fact that tree rings were telling the real story. Since the hockey stick was falsified, some claim, the entire science behind human-caused global warming needs to be questioned. This is plain ludicrous. The graph was never published in a scientific journal. Several updated versions of the "hockey stick" graph have been published in the ten years since the disputed graph was produced, and the "hockey stick" can be reproduced in essentially the same form excluding the controversial tree rings, using other paleoclimate data such as boreholes (See Mann et al., 2008, Figure 2). Furthermore, the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused global warming is not based solely upon the "hockey stick" and the CRU data used for the last 150 years of the hockey stick graph. There are three separate data sets of global temperatures maintained by NASA, the CRU, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, that all show essentially the same global warming. We also have evidence from nature herself in the form of plants and animals expanding their ranges poleward, the record loss of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and record loss of multi-year Arctic sea ice this year, the shrinking of mountain glaciers, reductions in the length of freeze season in many Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers, the shifting of spring blooms earlier in most regions of the world, and on and on and on. Again, Jones should have spoken up immediately to kill the ridiculous hype being pushed by global warming contrarians about the importance of a 10-year old graph that is now scientifically irrelevant, and was never published.
Figure 2. The "hockey stick" of global temperature anomalies since 300 A.D., as published in a 2008 paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Mann et al.. Even if one excludes tree rings (blue curve), the hockey stick looks the same.
Resistance to releasing data to other researchers
The hacked emails also show that Dr. Jones resisted releasing his data to contrarians and urged others to delete emails regarding Freedom Of Information (FOI) related requests. Many countries protect their weather data under an international agreement called World Meteorological Organization Resolution 40, which prohibits the data from being made public (this is why wunderground can't give out the UKMET model forecasts on our web site, for example). About 5% of the CRU data fell in that category, making release illegal. However, deleting emails related to FOI requests is inadvisable and implies one has something to hide. The investigation should certainly pursue the issue of whether Dr. Jones properly handled the requests to turn over his data to outside researchers. Ideally, weather data documenting Earth's climate history should be free to everyone on the planet (I am not a big fan of WMO Resolution 40). However, another aspect to this issue is the time it takes for the scientists involved to prepare the data for release. Large, complicated data sets require extensive documentation and access to related computer codes in order to process them, and making the data available to every amateur investigator interested in the data puts an unfair burden on the scientists who maintain the data sets. In particular, an amateur climate science investigator named Stephen McIntyre, who runs the web site Climate Audit, has created such an issue. McIntyre, a retired mining executive and an investor, is not a professional scientist, but has been successful identifying several technical errors made in the published literature. He has also generated a huge amount of misleading and incorrect information over the years, and has done a tremendous amount of damage to the understanding of climate science. McIntyre is intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming--presumably for ideological reasons, since he has no obvious ties to the fossil fuel industry--and has generated a large number of Freedom of Information requests to further his cause. One of the hacked emails, from Dr. Ben Santer, complained that McIntyre's FOI requests were intrusive and unreasonable with no scientific justification or explanation given, and appeared to be a calculated strategy to divert Santer's attention and focus away from research. It's worth reading Santer's reaction to the hacked email affair to learn more. Given such tactics by McIntyre, Dr. Jones' resistance to FOI requests from McIntyre is understandable, but appears to have been poorly handled.
The science of human-caused global warming remains unaffected
None of the hacked emails reveal any conspiracy to publish falsified or "fudged" material in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The science of human-caused global warming will require no revision as a result of this affair. Baseless accusations of fraud, data manipulation, and conspiracy against climate change scientists stemming from the hacked emails are being massively hyped by the Manufactured Doubt industry in an effort to discredit climate scientists, since no flaw with the science can be found. Most of the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad, so if you can create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion, you can win--or at least buy time, lots of it. The hacked email affair is all about politics, not science. Dr. Jones is an excellent scientist, but unfortunately was over-matched as a politician. It was hardly a fair fight--one scientist against the political might of the mightiest PR campaign against science ever waged, armed with some selectively culled stolen emails taken out of context.
Other posts in this series
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?
Next post
I'm working on a post called, "Don't shoot the messenger", and plan to run this Sunday or Monday.
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, will be in Copenhagen for Monday's start to the crucial COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. Be sure to tune into his blog for updates on the talks. Wunderground has provided financial support for several University of Michigan students to attend the talks, and I may be featuring portions of their blogs over the coming weeks.
Jeff Masters
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On shore flow over warm water will be undoing some of the cold air advection...
Doing a research paper on that due next Friday. E-mail me with your info, if you don't mind. It's a political geography class, so I need info on how governments of countries such as the Maldives are preparing and what may happen to them. natrwalkn@yahoo.com Thanks!!
Hummm, that is a bit of interesting code if legit.
Ok, did I do it right this time?
I write IDL code on a daily basis and have been for about 6 years. That description of the nuts and bolts in the function is accurate...
I sure hope we get some of that..... That would cool....
Taco :0)
We have a moderate all-snow going on now, but alas, our precip will be running out very soon. I doubt seriously there would be anything at all to see by daylight.
I live around the airport- it's just light rain here.
Where y'at?
Well I'm in the very western part, so the situation here may be different...
Mobile AL
We are getting some sleet mixed in with rain....
So we will see
Taco :0)
Except for one thing. They use indgen and create a hypothetical "floating point array". "findgen" does that. "indgen" creates a integer array.
Boy, that was quick. Just went back over to 90% drizzle, 10% snow, here. Need to take a picture soon simply to prove to myself that it did snow.
We did not get a 1/2 inch...
I would not hold my breath if I were you.
No I want be holding my breath either..... But it sure would be fun just to have a lite dusting anyway....
I always wanted to ask someone that. Spent many a night trying to figure that out. How you doing atmoaggie?
The cold air is entrenched to the west of you. The cold air will lift up and out behind the storm, from MS, C AL, W TN, W NC, W VA. the areas from the FL Panhandle, GA, SC, E NC have warmer air lifting in from the ATL & GOM.
I understand you want to see snow, however, the air from ground level to 20,000 FT is too mild to support snow.
Please review an earlier "Forecast Discussion" from the NWS Talahassee, FL meteorologists:
WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALLING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER IN THE
HOUSTON TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN ALOT OF QUESTIONS AS
TO THE SNOW/MIX POTENTIAL FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. NO MATTER WHAT
GUIDANCE PACKAGE YOU LOOK AT...IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR ANY
WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR AREA IS VERY LOW. PARTIAL THICKNESSES HOLD
ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP HAS EXITED TO THE EAST.
THESE VALUES GET CLOSE TO WHAT WOULD BE LOOKED AT FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO THE NORTHWEST OF DOTHAN LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A 1200 FOOT ABOVE FREEZING LAYER UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THIS LAYER WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH TO MELT ANY
FLAKES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE JUST A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL WITH
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
Its 39 degrees here as of right now and falling slowly so I think we might get just a little here in west mobile but as for you there could be more because you are north of I-10 and west of I-65
So, they twisted the code to accept an input value.
Yo! Bordonaro. Good explanation and quite accurate; but give them a little hope, they really want a little snow. After all it's almost Christmas. You could say it is possible, though!
There is a stable boundary layer between the 2 fronts. Not much moving previous but, things appear to be cranking now.
Same here and it's 43 outside. Was never expecting anything else, maybe north a little in AL. All coming off the warm GoM waters. Everyplace it's snowed has had at least some landmass south of the snow line (swampmass for LA). Don't know if this makes a difference, but...
I'm near citronelle. Well away from any heat islands ... havent seen anything other than sleet as of yet.
Thanks. I don't want to lie to anyone, the chance of any frozen precip in that area is pretty close to 20% or less. The storm system needs to slow down in order for that to happen. The SW Jet is blowing at 140KT, so the system is gonna move pretty quick!
More like they applied an increasing factor to historical temp obs. Somewhat like accounting for UHI, but in reverse. Like doubling the effect on the "value added" temperatures.
indgen was used in the analysis, but simply to show a point...but had findgen results...
Thats about right as of right now anyway..... I do think that around midnite to 1am it will change into snow north of downtown and west..... so you sould get a good dusting in Citronelle......
Quite frankly, the threat for severe weather in S FL is there, just out of the picture near the Keys, into the Bahama's. IF that boundry starts to move northward, the higher instability levels will be over S FL.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0924 PM CST FRI DEC 04 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 050324Z - 050500Z
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS CELLS MOVE INLAND ACROSS FAR SRN
FL LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST. A
WW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS EVENING BUT ISSUANCE IS MOST
LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN FL FROM
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK ENEWD TO THE MIAMI AREA. A CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS QUITE STRONG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL WHERE WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXIST FOR ROTATING STORMS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE EVERGLADES LATE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
A WELL-DEFINED 45 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES SRN FL FROM THE
WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WET
DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE INTENSE LINE-SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES.. 12/05/2009
Hehe. I'm ok. Wishing my 3 and 5 yr olds could see some snow cover in the morn, but doesn't seem to be in the cards.
How are you and yours?
You're right, of course. There seems to be so little of that around today. Glad to see a little integrity sometimes. Good show!
However, after living in SFL for so long, I even wish for a little flake dropping now and then.
I had to design a working ATM machine to graduate my CPT class @ Purdue.
Line of code that could & did dupe the best of them.
we may =) Im not holding my breath though, this storm is moving a little too quickly.
Quite well, thank you. I am in Norway and shall be leaving for Denmark soon. Personally, I like to use a Lindgen now and then so I can return a bigger Argument and fight with myself. It is so much easier, I never lose. Much like a similar discussion a while back, remember? By the way, that was a very subjective answer you gave to TheCaneWhisperer. Very professional response. I am serious about that.
The same scenario set-up happens time, after time, after time in the DFW area of N TX. It's normally an invisible line running fro, Gainsville, TX, through Denton, Mineral Wells, down towards Brownwood, TX. To the W of that line, snow or ice occurs 2-5X/yr, usually a light glaze. To the E of that line, cold rain.
Cold air gets pulled down from the TX Panhandle to NW TX. To the E enough warm GOM air, usually keeps us at 36-44F, a cole rain.
I understand it's all there. The unexpected dry/stable boundary layer, sitting on the ground of the SW mind you, is preventing that from happening. But, it appears that the layer is starting to fill in but, it did this earlier and retrograded so, I'll wait for the proof. Dry as a bone so far in Western PBC.
Much like Captain Kirk did on the Kobiyashi Maru to get into Star Fleet. He simply changed the rules in a no win situation. Clever. Guess it worked. We all dupe a little in life. That is what makes life so interesting.
Well, truly, to make a array of long intergers, lingen is the code...
And you could argue with yourself a long time like that...unless figure a way to parallelize or multithread IDL code, which I heard has been done (just not something I have done)
Didn't know the jet stream was that strong. Just checked a few things and what you say has a great deal of validity. Is is possible as mentioned by someone earlier, the dynamics could change and the system slow down to allow the colder air to be in a position to allow more snow? Not asking for a real technical explanation at this hour. Looking at the maps can be a little deceiving when one doesn't understand them fully as I.
thought that was only for a given computation. Have you ever done a multithread using it?
Not sure what you mean, but IDL is mostly a compile and run in the same step setup. Every invocation of an IDL program consumes a license. The cheapest single-server license is at least $3k. (It IS possible to build a stand-alone precompiled function to send someone, but it's capabilities are limited)
Running WRF (Fortran) on 256 processors after consuming a compiler license only during compile is very different from trying to run IDL code in the same manner...
I have not attempted this with IDL, nor can I come up with a situation where it would be worthwhile.
depends on where you are .. if the system starts to turn NE to curve out sooner than expected it might slow down briefly during the direction change.
Yes, it is possible, but not likely.
However, look at the precipitation on the radar. Already exiting most of LA and moving at a good clip. The NWS NOLA did a atmospheric sounding and reported it as part of the Area Forecast Discussion at 7:58PM CST, about 4 hrs ago. That determined there was a 140KT SW Jet at about 35,000 FT. The Jet will drive the system quickly to the NE. The precip will have ended before the temps in the atmosphere cool down enough to support snow.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST SOUNDING...
PARTICULARLY ALOFT WITH A PW OF 0.84 INCHES AND A NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 AND 830 MILLIBARS WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE AROUND ZERO DEGREES. FREEZING LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AT 5100 FEET
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR
A FEW HOURS BEFORE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE LAKE. A STRONG 140 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS IN PLACE AT
AROUND 188 MILLIBARS AS WELL
188MB height is around 42,000 FT up
Oh, I was under the impression that if you used a particular routine with an IDL threadpool you could increase the execution value on systems with multiple CPUs. It is used extensively in scenarios. I, of course have never attempted it.
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