Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Orcasystems:
I have to admit.. some of the post on here have made me rethink my views on this whole subject. Any group that insist they are right.. and EVERYONE else is wrong... and needs to be converted to the light... scares the begeezes out of me.

There are a few groups out there in this world that hold that opinion...

Exactly right, Orca. I don't like an opinion being shoved down my throat in any circumstances. I'm open to listening to any opinion that is presented to me.. as long as they understand that I may completely end up disagreeing with them. As soon as my position is disparaged (as opposed to debated), I stop listening.

Quoting CaneWarning:


Morning junky! Is it foggy down there? Tampa is covered in fog now.

Good morning!
No, surprisingly enough. The local forecast had a dense fog warning but it never materialized. That's crazy. The fog the other morning was unreal. I've never seen it so thick even out on the water.

Quoting jeffs713:

Exactly right, Orca. I don't like an opinion being shoved down my throat in any circumstances. I'm open to listening to any opinion that is presented to me.. as long as they understand that I may completely end up disagreeing with them. As soon as my position is disparaged (as opposed to debated), I stop listening.

Bingo... give the man a Kupie Doll :)

Perhaps someone would like to review this item? Start at page 17 and have at it or the beginning if ya like :)

Section on TERRESTRIAL VS. SATELLITE TEMPERATURE RECORDS

BTW, this provides a good example of raw vs. processed data results

That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now.


What a load...

Quoting hurricanejunky:


That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now. They don't want to come up with solutions to our problems, they want to champion the same old tired ideas that failed miserably for the last 8 years. If there were fresh alternative ideas that represented practical solutions to major problems coming from the right I'd be the first to recognize them. I think the right needs to sit on the sidelines for a while and see if Obama's ideas work. So far, they've had more success than anything the right did for 8 years under Bush. If in 3 more years the Obama administration has left this country worse then what they inherited (impossible) then I'd be the first to concur that he wasn't necessarily a good President. Seeing as how the country has already improved measurably since his taking office, I think slow improvement will continue. Considering what he inherited, it's a miracle we are where we are right now. Having said that, I would love to see Republicans and Democrats work together meaningfully but I don't see it happening.

I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)

Quoting trinigal:


But don't you see the left does that too? I see the left and the right equally guilty of the same things, as you've just demonstrated. Do you think maybe rather than throw dust on the ones throwing dust, there might be a better way that brings you above the fray?

Yes, I do see that. I wasn't necessarily throwing dust as I am a neutral. I vote for the person who is best qualified for the job at the time, regardless of party. I was merely pointing out that it seems Republicans are quick to the trigger this year. Their party took a beating last year and it shows, IMO.

Orcasystems.... you've got mail

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Yes, I do see that. I wasn't necessarily throwing dust as I am a neutral. I vote for the person who is best qualified for the job at the time, regardless of party. I was merely pointing out that it seems Republicans are quick to the trigger this year. Their party took a beating last year and it shows, IMO.

I agree completely. Happens every time regardless of party. Guess that is human nature.

Quoting mikatnight:
WunderPoll Results:
The "official" word on climate change, the 2007 report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), concluded that there was a greater than 90% chance that most of the observed global warming in the past 50 years was due to emission of greenhouse gases by human activity. Do you agree with the IPCC?


Yes, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for global warming.

525 (55.2%)
No, natural causes are primarily responsible for global warming.

426 (44.8%)
Total: 951 (100%)

Don't post that pinko commie leftie crap poll on here! LOL!

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now.


What a load...

Why don't you point out one issue where the Republicans have come up with a meaningful alternative solution? You can't. Why? Because they aren't offering any.

Quoting hurricanejunky: >Why don't you point out one issue where the Republicans have come up with a meaningful alternative solution? You can't. Why? Because they aren't offering any.

Or is that they aren't offering any solution that is meaningful in your own eyes?

Quoting trinigal:


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)

Agreed.

0 Z GFS had us a little cold and rather dry for late next week.

The somewhat opaque 6 Z GFS crystal ball looks like light snow for SE LA and coastal MS.



Next output (12 hours later) 0 C line (southernmost blue) is waaay out in the gulf (should be rather cold here). And Delmarva has a nor'easter with strong onshore winds (but it is on the move, so flooding should be minimal).



And I put together a little blog post some of you may find interesting: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/show.html

In a nutshell:

Human beings do not adapt to their environment. Humans adapt their environment to suit them. It all started with fire. We found that if we took fire to a confined space, we could heat our environment. Later we invented air-conditioning and applied the same principle. We are not satisfied however (we never remain satisfied for long), with the whole confined space thingy. We’ve tried building bigger and bigger confined spaces, but when it comes right down to it, turns out we don’t much care for the word “confined”. So it’s only natural that we’re trying to get around it.
Sort of like dipping our toe in the lake to see if we’re tough enough to take the plunge, we stand at the precipice of a scientific frontier that is fraught with danger and uncertainty. But those types of jumping off points are not new to us. It starts with an idea, which gathers momentum, and then someone takes the leap. The idea may start out as radical, but the actions taken as a result is progressive and taken step by step. And when you take the long view, we’re never wrong, and we never fail. Go Humans!

As to the anomaly chart in the OP, Megan McArdle cites Richard Feynmann's history of the Millikan experiment, where subsequent researchers "calibrated" their data in repeating the electron charge experiment. The measured charge on the electron increased with each experiment. You see, Millikan had failed to take into account the viscosity of air, and subsequent researches didn't want to completely debunk Millikan, so the value crept up slowly instead of all at once.

Something similar might have derived the situation on this chart, repeated in the linked post:

Quoting trinigal:


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)

I respect your opinion as well but I have to ask the question. What makes you feel this admimistration is worse? The economy is starting to show positive signs and we're not even a year into his presidency. I know some thought he'd wave his magic wand and 6 months in the economy would miraculously return to 1999 numbers but it doesn't work that way. We have to give him a little time. The messes created by the previous administration took 8 years to make and cleanup usually takes longer than to make the mess. Just my opinion. Thanks for the civil debate.

Quoting trinigal:


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)

Think of it like this. And, purely because I was amazed at this years biggest looser, simply amazing what one can do when focused.

A person wants to loose 200lbs. The first 6 months, 40 lbs is lost but, is not visible to the naked eye so nobody thinks your loosing weight, yet. As you start to loose 50 and 60, people start noticing. 60 and beyond the momentum builds as more and more people see and support your efforts until your goal of 200lbs is reached.

I personally think we're in the 50 to 60lb category right now with momentum building this spring.

Quoting trinigal:
Or is that they aren't offering any solution that is meaningful in your own eyes?

Yeah it must be a conspiracy by the liberal media to suppress all of the innovative ideas coming from the right. That's why I don't hear about any of them. Seriously, none that I've heard represent anything besides the tired old ideas we've heard during the last administration. Do you know of any? I'd like to hear them if you do.

Sorry about the politics, I will try to return to a suitable topic now (barring any replies I have to make).

Hopefully Dr. M will put us on a tropical weather topic later today! The Global Warming burnout is starting to set in....I hope everyone is having a wonderful morning!

HELLOOOOO!

I said snow, SE LA and Mississippi Coast. I'll throw in all of Alabama for light snow and Atlanta with a potential snow storm. And a nor'easter snow storm for the Wash-Boston corridor. Does anyone at all find that scenario interesting?

What is the deal this other junk? Presidential administrations comprised of politicians and what was the temperature in Australia 60 years ago? (Note: They just broke some high temp records previously set 150 years ago)

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Sorry about the politics, I will try to return to a suitable topic now (barring any replies I have to make).

Hopefully Dr. M will put us on a tropical weather topic later today! The Global Warming burnout is starting to set in....I hope everyone is having a wonderful morning!

There is no such thing as a reply "I have to make". I let things just go all the time.

Atmo - that snow is interesting indeed. We shall see.

Love your comic there. That is so true.

Good one atmoaggie (#972). And on that note, I am outta here...

I have what may seem to be an odd question. I suspect that a majority of those who are skeptical of man made global warming tend to have a creationist view of life on planet Earth. While those who think that global warming is the result of human activity, look through the lens of evolutionary processes.

I know that this may seem strange to some, and it may even irritate some who think that it isn't appropriate in this discussion. I am just curious.

Anybody wish to comment?

Thanks

Quoting atmoaggie:

There is no such thing as a reply "I have to make". I let things just go all the time.

You're right...Atmo, you're an insufferable know it all. LOL! ;)

Quoting mikatnight:
Good one atmoaggie (#972). And on that note, I am outta here...

Don't leave on my account, mik!

Quoting atmoaggie:

There is no such thing as a reply "I have to make". I let things just go all the time.

What do temps look like for central Florida as I see the system will track right over it or north of it.

A few years ago I started recording High/Low temperatures from 5 different sites in NC. 3 of those sites are in very rural areas, 1 is in a mixed rural/urban area and one is strictly Urban. I then compared the official temperatures to the 30 yr data for the same locations. I found that yes, the temperatures were rising but only for the Urban area which happened to be RDU, significantly higher. However, when the 30yr data was collected at RDU it was "out in the boonies" so to speak. Now it is totally surrounded by population and concrete. Whereas the temperatures at all other locations were below or equal to the 30yr data plus/minus 1 deg. When the data from all sites was averaged out there was a .10 degree rise in temperatures from the 30 yr data. I will have the 2009 data at the end of Dec. If Dec is "normal" I estimate that the data will be very close to normal and just possibly slightly below. I intend to continue my survey for many years since my small amount of data pales in comparison the the 30yr data.
So right now, I'm thinking the increase in population and the addition of God knows how many tons of cement and the loss of trees and forests has made the difference. If rural areas stay in step with the 30 yr data then I don't think we can call this "Global Warming", but rather overcrowding. The last time I checked my homesite in rural NC is still a part of the "Globe" and I don't have any warming over the 30 yr data.

MAC aka AFCHIEF

Quoting hurricanejunky:


I respect your opinion as well but I have to ask the question. What makes you feel this admimistration is worse? The economy is starting to show positive signs and we're not even a year into his presidency. I know some thought he'd wave his magic wand and 6 months in the economy would miraculously return to 1999 numbers but it doesn't work that way. We have to give him a little time. The messes created by the previous administration took 8 years to make and cleanup usually takes longer than to make the mess. Just my opinion. Thanks for the civil debate.

Oh dear, I could write a book on this or, if not a book, a really long paper :)

I don't want to irritate people too much so I'll keep some of my opinions off of here but a big problem I had during the last administration was the spending. Now I know our current President gets blamed for record deficits when, truth be told, the last administration set quite a bit of that in motion before leaving office. However, that said, this administration's spending is outrageous. Also, I run a website and talk to women all over the world daily about healthcare issues. I have some strong thoughts on the healthcare reform being suggested. I know what the media is reporting about the economy but I don't have that warm fuzzy feeling about it yet. I think we're still in for some even tougher times and we just cannot blame everything that goes wrong on the last administration. At some point, this administration needs to start owning up to their own mistakes and failures (and, yes, that could be said for the last administration as well).

I do think the majority of America can look at the past few administrations and lay blame where blame is due. There will always be those, however, who will go down with any sinking ship. I just appreciate the various points of view :)

New blog

not a great article

I'll leave now so you can have myspace sparkle weather chat with your friends.

OH, Thank you, thank you, m'Lord!
I see my Church of CC/AGW has been busy proselytizing this morning... I wish our preachers realized that "no souls are won in more than 20 minutes."

Good morning everyone! Bright sunny and cold here, though not that cold in comparison to the Midwest.

Anyone else catch Drew Brees on Jay Leno last night? He certainly is a charmer -- can't wait for the N.O.-Dallas game (Falcons, don't care so much). As a resident of Deadskins land, plus my son was born near Denver...well, gotta' shmear the Cowboys!

Let's see, what else...OH, MikatNight, the editorial cartoons you posted are great...say so much with so few words -- plus they make you smile, and I don't think they are offensive even if you disagree (if you have a sense of humor.)
Real subtle, aren't I?

...not sure if Aussie already addressed the wildfires today...gee, hope it's okay to post other (int'l./weather/climate) news!

From "The Starting Point"

In other news: More than 120 wildfires burned across southeastern Australia today, AFP reported. As temperatures climbed above 100 degrees, thousands of firefighters battled the wind-whipped fires, including one large blaze that burned dangerously close to farming properties in New South Wales. At the time of this writing, a park ranger has died and a pilot was seriously injured when their helicopter crashed while mapping the fires.

"Climate change" or "Global warming" or whatever they are calling it now is the latest way for the world at large to get their hands on America's wealth. Only one nation will pay - the US-of-A!!

Quoting Drewby:
"Climate change" or "Global warming" or whatever they are calling it now is the latest way for the world at large to get their hands on America's wealth. Only one nation will pay - the US-of-A!!

Don't waste yer breath!

Quoting trinigal:


Oh dear, I could write a book on this or, if not a book, a really long paper :)

I don't want to irritate people too much so I'll keep some of my opinions off of here but a big problem I had during the last administration was the spending. Now I know our current President gets blamed for record deficits when, truth be told, the last administration set quite a bit of that in motion before leaving office. However, that said, this administration's spending is outrageous. Also, I run a website and talk to women all over the world daily about healthcare issues. I have some strong thoughts on the healthcare reform being suggested. I know what the media is reporting about the economy but I don't have that warm fuzzy feeling about it yet. I think we're still in for some even tougher times and we just cannot blame everything that goes wrong on the last administration. At some point, this administration needs to start owning up to their own mistakes and failures (and, yes, that could be said for the last administration as well).

I do think the majority of America can look at the past few administrations and lay blame where blame is due. There will always be those, however, who will go down with any sinking ship. I just appreciate the various points of view :)

It's less than a year into his presidency. You can't expect him to own everything now. In 2 years maybe. I respect your views although we don't agree on everything. The jury is still out and he should be given more time before calling for the guillotine is all I'm saying.

Quoting JustBobby:
I have what may seem to be an odd question. I suspect that a majority of those who are skeptical of man made global warming tend to have a creationist view of life on planet Earth. While those who think that global warming is the result of human activity, look through the lens of evolutionary processes.

I know that this may seem strange to some, and it may even irritate some who think that it isn't appropriate in this discussion. I am just curious.

Anybody wish to comment?

Thanks

No, I don't think this is necessarily true. I do think this is more of a political issue...left vs. right if you will. More people on the left, but not all, subscribe to evolutionary theory whereas as more people on the right, but not all, subscribe to more God-centered theories. That said, I know democrats who believe current climate change patterns are naturally occurring and I even know some 'George Bush was the best President ever' types who think it is human caused.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Don't waste yer breath!

LOL, that goes for both sides, doesn't it Doug?
The pomposity has just been overwhelming... I have a "side" but can't stand blowhards or extremists!
See you on the other side! I mean, new Blog...:)

Quoting hurricanejunky:


It's less than a year into his presidency. You can't expect him to own everything now. In 2 years maybe. I respect your views although we don't agree on everything. The jury is still out and he should be given more time before calling for the guillotine is all I'm saying.

Hey, I hear you! There is always that overlap between administrations. I tend to be anti-guillotine myself. Too messy and the clean up is a nightmare.

Quoting biff4ugo:
Ossgss
Monkton is in the link you gave. A proven sensationalist whose aligances are well known. All the graphics and pop headlines with quotable snippits in that article goes along with the same lack of seriousness or rigor in his political posts.
They use the same quotes from the email talking about "tricks".
FYI look up the number of software classes with "trick" in the title. I attend a tips and tricks class on my spatial analysis software that suggests and teaches quick, easy, or less obvious ways to work with large awkward datasets, get through ponderous methods more easily, etc. It has nothing to do with being misleading, clandestine, or secrative.

Look it up.

Understood, where is the referenced analysis wrong, is the question :)

and new blog ...

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I'll leave now so you can have myspace sparkle weather chat with your friends.

OH, Thank you, thank you, m'Lord!
I see my Church of CC/AGW has been busy proselytizing this morning... I wish our preachers realized that "no souls are won in more than 20 minutes."

Good morning everyone! Bright sunny and cold here, though not that cold in comparison to the Midwest.

Anyone else catch Drew Brees on Jay Leno last night? He certainly is a charmer -- can't wait for the N.O.-Dallas game (Falcons, don't care so much). As a resident of Deadskins land, plus my son was born near Denver...well, gotta' shmear the Cowboys!

Let's see, what else...OH, MikatNight, the editorial cartoons you posted are great...say so much with so few words -- plus they make you smile, and I don't think they are offensive even if you disagree (if you have a sense of humor.)
Real subtle, aren't I?

...not sure if Aussie already addressed the wildfires today...gee, hope it's okay to post other (int'l./weather/climate) news!

From "The Starting Point"

In other news: More than 120 wildfires burned across southeastern Australia today, AFP reported. As temperatures climbed above 100 degrees, thousands of firefighters battled the wind-whipped fires, including one large blaze that burned dangerously close to farming properties in New South Wales. At the time of this writing, a park ranger has died and a pilot was seriously injured when their helicopter crashed while mapping the fires.

There is currently 98 bush/scrub/grass fires burning in NSW. 28 are out of control.

Just some info on some of the fires burning in NSW

Current Situation

Black Pinch Fire:

The fire is currently burning north east of Tenterfield, approx 5km West of Drake.

The Bruxner Highway is closed at this location until further notice.

This afternoon the fire crossed the Bruxner Highway near McLeods Creek and is moving rapidly in a north east direction. Isolated properties in the area may come under threat later this evening.

Surveyors Creek Fire.

The fire is currently burning uncontained near the isolated rural community of Wytaliba, approx 65 km East of Glenn Innes.

The fire has crossed Spring Creek Road and will potentially threaten properties along the Old Glenn Innes Rd this evening.

Kangawalla Fire.

A fire is burning in the Kangawalla Gaming Reserve, around 16km East of Glenn Innes.

The Gaming Reserve has been closed until further notice.

Fire crews are working in the area to protect property.

Cataract Fire & Clarke Fire

A fire is burning near the isolated rural community of Currawinya, approx 50 km north west of Tabulam.

Fire crews are working in the area to protect property.

Lincon Hill

A fire is burning in the area of River Tree Rd, Liston. approximately 30km east of Stanthorp.

Fire crews are currently conducting property protection in the area.

Acacia Plateau

A fire is burning near the NSW-QLD border, around 6km North of the Legume Village.

Fire crews are currently working in the area to contain the fire.

Black Creek – Granite Creek Fire

The fire continues to burn uncontained around 10 kilometres north of Torrington.

Fire crews have assisted landholders construct containments lines around properties and will continue to monitor the fire overnight.

Thanks, Aussie!

Hope you post in new blog, if you haven't already! I haven't been there yet...quick break to refill hot coffee...see you there.
Thnx.

atmo , thanks 4 answering my ? it was appreciated,,

ref 954
Datasets less than 30 years may be missing the longer climate cycles and datasets less than 11 years are definitely missing solar cycles. Many of the datasets showing reverse trends are less than 10 and some are 4. Notice the shorter the record, the more the graphs show cooling. The cool trend graphs do not have the same weight of data behind them. They are poor predictors with weak support but displayed the same way. That is definitely misleading. The stronger/longer datasets show the warm trend.
The report even puts shadow lines behind their graphs to make it look like there is more data that agrees.