The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on December 11, 2009

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The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years has created a fundamental new change in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that has sped up sea ice loss and is affecting fall and winter weather across most of the Northern Hemisphere, according to several recent studies. Arctic sea ice loss peaks in September and October, exposing a large area of open water that heats the air above it. This extra heat has helped drive September - November air temperatures in the Arctic to 1°C (1.8°F) or more above average over about half of the depth of the lower atmosphere (Figure 1). This deep layer of warm air has grown less dense and expanded, pushing the top of the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) higher. The result has been a decrease in the pressure gradient (the difference in pressure) between the North Pole and mid-latitudes. With not as much difference in pressure to try and equalize, the jet stream has slowed down in the Arctic, creating a major change in the atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere.


Figure 1. Cross section of Arctic temperature anomaly from 1000 mb (the surface) to 300 mb (roughly, the height of the top of the lower atmosphere or troposphere). Cross section is taken along the Date Line (180°W), from 60°N latitude (left side) to the North Pole (right side), for September - November for the 12-year period 1998 - 2009. Three year averages were done to reduce the amount of year-to-year noise associated with natural variation. Other cross sections along different lines of longitude show similar results, though typically with more warming aloft and less warming at the surface. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

A new atmospheric pattern emerges: the Arctic Dipole
In a 2008 article titled, Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system Zhang et al. show that the extreme loss of Arctic sea ice since 2001 has been accompanied by a radical shift of the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns, into a new mode they call the Arctic Rapid change Pattern. The new atmospheric circulation pattern has also been recognized by other researchers, who refer to it as the Arctic Dipole (Richter-Menge et al., 2009). The old atmospheric patterns that controlled Arctic weather--the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which featured air flow that tended to circle the pole, now alternate with the new Arctic Dipole pattern. The Arctic Dipole pattern features anomalous high pressure on the North American side of the Arctic, and low pressure on the Eurasian side. This results in winds blowing more from south to north, increasing transport of heat into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent (Overland et al., 2008). Overland et al., 2010 also found that the Arctic Dipole pattern tended to create an increase in easterly winds in the lower half of the atmosphere of 40% in fall, between 2002 - 2008. Fall 2008 through spring 2009 featured the old AO pattern. The new Arctic Dipole pattern re-appeared in June - July 2009, but the old AO pattern dominated in August - September, resulting in greater sea ice extent than in 2007 and 2008. The Arctic Dipole pattern was active again in October, inactive in November, and reasserted itself this December. As a result, Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum for a 10-day period in early November, increased above record lows during late November and early December, and appears poised again to reach a new record minimum later this December (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Sea ice extent in the Arctic for this year (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (green line) and 1979 - 2000 average (gray line). One could make the ice loss looks less significant by using the full satellite data record from 1979 - 2008 for the average. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic Dipole blamed for colder winters in East Asia
It turns out that the new Arctic circulation patterns help to intensify the Siberian High, a large semi-permanent region of surface high pressure prevalent in winter over Siberia. According to Honda et al. (2009), this results in increased flow of cold air out of the Arctic in early winter over eastern Russia, Japan, Korea, and eastern China, causing colder temperatures. By late winter, the pattern shifts, resulting in colder than average temperatures from East Asia to Europe.

Arctic Dipole blamed for drier winters in Northern Europe
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation--a pattern that usually brings reduced winter precipitation over Alaska and Northern Europe and increased precipitation over Southern Europe. A more negative NAO also tends to bring cold winters to eastern North America and Europe. Though it was not mentioned in the article, reduced Arctic sea ice may also cause dry early winter conditions in the U.S. and the Caribbean (Figure 3). The authors noted that strong La Niña or El Niño events can have a much larger influence on the wintertime atmospheric circulation, which will overshadow the changes due to Arctic sea ice loss.


Figure 3. Difference in early winter precipitation (November - January) between five years that had low Arctic sea ice (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009), and five years that had unusually high Arctic sea ice extent (1981, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1993). Note that low sea ice may be responsible for dry conditions in early winter for the Caribbean and most of the U.S.

Commentary
Arctic sea ice loss appears to have created a new atmospheric circulation pattern that brings more warm air in the Arctic, creating a positive feedback loop that causes even more sea ice loss. This feedback loop increases the likelihood that an ice-free Arctic in the summer will indeed come by 2030, as many Arctic experts are predicting. It's worth noting that such an atmospheric circulation shift was not predicted by the climate models. Indeed, the loss of Arctic sea ice over the past three years exceeds what any of our models were predicting (Figure 4). While we can rightly criticize these models for their inaccuracy, we should realize that they are just as capable of making errors not in our favor as they are of making errors in our favor.


Figure 4. Arctic sea ice extent from observations (thick orange line) and 13 model forecasts used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (light lines). The thick black line is the multi-model ensemble mean, with the standard deviation plotted as a dashed black line. Image has been updated to include the observed 2008 and 2009 measurements. None of the models predicted the record 2007 sea ice loss. Image credit: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast by Stroeve et al., 2007.

References
Francis, J.A., W. Chan, D.J. Leathers, J.R. Miller, and D.E. Veron, 2009, "Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent", Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009. Influence of low Arctic sea - ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., M. Wang, and S. Salo, 2008: The recent Arctic warm period, Tellus, 60A, 589.597.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1–9.

Richter-Menge, J., and J.E. Overland, Eds., 2009: Arctic Report Card 2009, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard.

Simmonds, I., and K. Keay (2009), Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19715, doi:10.1029/2009GL039810.

Wu, B., J. Wang, and J. E. Walsh, 2006: Dipole anomaly in the winter Arctic atmosphere and its association with sea ice motion. J. Climate, 19, 210-225.

Zhang, X., A. Sorteberg, J. Zhang, R. Gerdes, and J. C. Comiso (2008), Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035607.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bordonaro:


How fast are the winds expected to be? I am sure their structures can withstand 100 MPH winds.


It's not so much the wind, as the rain. Earlier this year a tropical depression passed near the country, set a new record for tropical cyclone rain in Fiji (15.19"), and killed 12 people. However, Cyclone Daman brushed passed the country in 2007 as a category three on the SSHS and caused no fatalities.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting AussieStorm:

Typical village building


Bure is the Fijian word for a wood-and-straw hut, sometimes similar to a cabin.

In its original sense, a bure is a structure built of anything that comes to hand. The components of a bure are either stacked together, tied together by rope, or a combination of both methods.

Traditionally, ethnic Fijians lived in two types of houses; a vale was the family house, while men's houses (where circumcised males of the clan met, ate, and slept) were known as bures. Both of these buildings were dark and smoky inside, with no windows and usually only one low door. Vales had hearth pits where the women cooked, and the packed earth floor was covered with grass or fern leaves and then carpeted with pandanus leaf or coarse coconut leaf mats.


Man, was I am dead WRONG, period, amen. Those huts cannot handle more than a 25MPH breeze!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
18Z GFS 384HR Forecast Surface Temp Map for 12-28-09: I know this is long range, but given the amount of cold air expected and the active SW Jet, this scenario is plausible:


Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
854, 884. Aussie, do you all get "Sesame Street"? "One of these things is not like the other one..."
It's all beautiful, though. Jealous? In a word, YES. But how much is your monthly air-conditioning bill? I can find converter, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
872, 874. Ohhhh, Waiter -- I'll have what they're having, please!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Bordonaro:


How fast are the winds expected to be? I am sure their structures can withstand 100 MPH winds.

Typical village building


Bure is the Fijian word for a wood-and-straw hut, sometimes similar to a cabin.

In its original sense, a bure is a structure built of anything that comes to hand. The components of a bure are either stacked together, tied together by rope, or a combination of both methods.

Traditionally, ethnic Fijians lived in two types of houses; a vale was the family house, while men's houses (where circumcised males of the clan met, ate, and slept) were known as bures. Both of these buildings were dark and smoky inside, with no windows and usually only one low door. Vales had hearth pits where the women cooked, and the packed earth floor was covered with grass or fern leaves and then carpeted with pandanus leaf or coarse coconut leaf mats.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The storm is also expected to hit Fiji directly, which could be devastating considering its size and intensity. After this, it will encounter some wind shear, but the sheer size of the storm may allow it to tap into warmer water and lower shear (refer to post 742). This storm may actually disrupt the Humboldt directly, as Nida disrupted the West Pacific temperatures.


How fast are the winds expected to be? I am sure their structures can withstand 100 MPH winds.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Meteorlogical Service
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number 2
TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (01F)
12:00 PM FST December 13 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Mick (995 hPa) located a 14.9S 175.4E with 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral enhanced infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations.

Organization improved significantly in the last 12 hours with more curvature in banding. Mick lies under upper diffluent region. Outflow good to north and east. Dry air entrainment from north. Warming central overcast evident. Primary band to east continually peeling off. Cyclone moving into an area of decreasing shear. System steered by a northwest deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 Spiral Yielding DT 3.0, PT=3.0, MET= 2.5

FT based on DT: T3.0/3.0/1.0/24HRS.

Most global models agree on intensification in the short term along a southeast track.


The storm is also expected to hit Fiji directly, which could be devastating considering its size and intensity. After this, it will encounter some wind shear, but the sheer size of the storm may allow it to tap into warmer water and lower shear (refer to post 742). This storm may actually disrupt the Humboldt directly, as Nida disrupted the West Pacific temperatures.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
881. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorlogical Service
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number 2
TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (01F)
12:00 PM FST December 13 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Mick (995 hPa) located a 14.9S 175.4E with 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral enhanced infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations.

Organization improved significantly in the last 12 hours with more curvature in banding. Mick lies under upper diffluent region. Outflow good to north and east. Dry air entrainment from north. Warming central overcast evident. Primary band to east continually peeling off. Cyclone moving into an area of decreasing shear. System steered by a northwest deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 Spiral Yielding DT 3.0, PT=3.0, MET= 2.5

FT based on DT: T3.0/3.0/1.0/24HRS.

Most global models agree on intensification in the short term along a southeast track.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46293
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


You can take pictures, just make sure to stay indoors and away from any open windows or electrical equipment. I've tried to take pictures of lightning numerous times but failed because the flash of light did not come at the moment when I snapped the photo.


Set your camera to manual.

Set the shutter to be open until you release the button.

Press the button and hold until the lighting flashes. Then release it.

They come out quite beautiful.

Each camera is different so check the owners manual to see how it is done with your camera.


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting auburn:


Thanx!!!


Just remember to align your finderscope properly. You can do this by pointing the finder at a bright star, then using the lowest-power eyepiece (the one with the largest diameter) try to center the star in the field of view. If the star is off-center in the finder (assuming you have a regular finderscope) loosen the bolts directly touching the finder tube slightly, then nudge the finder until the star is in the center, then re-tighten the bolts/knobs. Next switch to a higher power eyepiece, keeping the star in the center, and check to see if the star is still in the center of the finder. This process can save long hours of fruitless search for celestial objects.

Also, try not to use the North Star (Polaris) for the finder adjustments, because it's rather awkward to move the telescope in a way that puts Polaris in the center of the eyepiece. To find the North Star, find the front stars of the Big Dipper and use them as a pointer. If your scope has an altitude/latitude knob near the mount, adjust that so it corresponds with your local latitude. Also remember to make sure the scope's counterweight and the tube are balanced, otherwise you may notice your scope drifting away from a target you just found!

The aperture of the telescope may be indicated within the box or on the scope itself. Knowing this is helpful in knowing what kind of objects you can see. Finally, another limiting factor is your local light pollution, which can be found within North America for locations from this website, which also provides local atmospheric observation conditions:Link

Quoting atmoaggie:

From the looks of this, I would be tempted...



You can take pictures, just make sure to stay indoors and away from any open windows or electrical equipment. I've tried to take pictures of lightning numerous times but failed because the flash of light did not come at the moment when I snapped the photo.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 15
TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (01U)
11:00 am ACST December 13 2009
==========================================

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 (996 hPa) located at 13.5S 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone was estimated to be 80 kms north of Port Keats and 310 kms east northeast of Kalumburu and moving southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/ 24HRS

Gale-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Tropical cyclone Laurence is expected to move westward into the Timor Sea, and approach the north Kimberley coast tonight.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected on the coast between the WA/NT border and Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia late Sunday or early Monday. These may increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour during Monday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected in the far north Kimberley region later today and Monday, which may cause localised flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to WA/NT Border.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Mitchell Plateau.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.6S 128.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 13.6S 127.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 14.4S 126.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 hRS: 15.7S 125.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Cyclone Laurence has been exhibiting slow movement to the southwest, taking it further out into the waters of the Timor Sea. Poor fix based on Darwin and Wyndham radars. Deep convection is increasing near the centre and organisation continues to show improvement. DT based on a 0.8 wrap on the log10 spiral yields 3.0 with MET and PT in agreement FT is based on DT. Continued development is expected at standard rate as system moves further into the Timor Sea. Proximity to land has been the unfavourable factor but this will have less effect as the system moves away. Models generally have short term westward movement contrary to recent history. Interpretation is that models have system too weak and are steering with the 700hPa rather than 500hPa steering which seems to be directing the system. However, in the longer term as models deepen the system, movement tends west-southwesterly. Forecast track strategy is therefore to adjust model consensus track over next 18 hours for consistency with recent trends, following consensus thereafter, with landfall expected on north Kimberley coastline in 24 to 48 hours.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
877. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:

That is from Nadi


Was referring to these advisories

Link
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46293
December 12, 2009 - by Professor David J. Bellamy

There is no evidence of carbon dioxide being a poison, or that it is capable of causing a warming Armageddon. What follows is a summary of the proof straight from real science, peer-reviewed over the past 232 years by legions of physicists, thanks to Newtons Principia.

Remember the famous picture of Miss Marilyn Monroe with her skirt blown high? Even at the age of 76, when I see this picture my temperature goes up followed by the amount of carbon dioxide I exhale. Never the other way round. Now, thanks to the study of a series of ice cores, this appears to be an inconvenient truth for the global warming industry.

Al Gore used this ice core data to claim that carbon dioxide made the temperature of the world rise, threatening life on earth, because there was a correlation between atmospheric CO2 levels and the world average temperature. Yet the data from the much-celebrated Vostok ice cores paints a very different picture: Up goes the temperature, followed by a rise in carbon dioxide.

Effectively flattening Gore dreams of hedging his funds.

More troubles lie ahead for the warmists. Independent researchers have pointed out that crucially important pieces of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) evidence were based on false statistical analysis. For starters, take a look at historical evidence from the last 1,000 years. There was a worldwide Medieval Warm Period no, not just in Europe and a few centuries prior to that period it was warm enough for the Romans to produce red wine on the borders of Scotland.

The warmists did their best to hide this inconvenient truth, too. In 2006, Dr. David Deming of the University of Oklahoma testified to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. He stated that soon after he had published a paper on borehole temperature based on historical data in the journal Science, he received an email from a major climate change researcher which read: We have to get rid of the medieval warm period.

Michael Mann, one of the divas of global warming, had done just that. He published a reconstruction of past temperatures from AD 1000 to the present in which the Medieval Warm Period conveniently vanished. Warmist believers joined in, flag-waving and sandwich-boarding, calling Mann critics 'deniers' and worse.

Over the past 5,000 years? There was not just one, but three periods when it was warmer than today. And yet life on Earth survived. Climate change is natural, and warmer periods occur without human CO2 emissions being the cause. Just looking at the last decade, world temperature is falling as CO2 rises big emitters China and India have been stocking up their coal sheds. Increases in CO2 rarely coincide with rises in the Earths temperature so how can CO2 be the driver of global warming, let alone climate change?

Following the spread of this evidence, the warmists began to see the lights of the skeptic train rushing down their tunnel of hype. Those with the most to lose dropped the term 'global warming,' replacing it with 'Climate change', which has been happening since the first living thing was there to record the evidence. With this new term, they gave themselves a spurious license to carry on frightening law-abiding citizens with waterlogged tales of unprovable tipping points just around the corner.

Meanwhile, one of Britain's mainstream scientific groups, NERC, sidestepped this troublesome term by blaming everything on 'environmental change' in their publication Planet Earth.

We have had at least 75 major temperature swings in the past 4,500 years, all in great part explicable by solar cycles, volcanic activity, and those little rascals El Nino and La Nina. Those 'warming' oceans? The recent trend is one of cooling, not the warming predicted by legions of modelers and their models. Since 2007, the Arctic ice cap has been increasing in area, heading back towards the norm again. Yes, the Northwest Passage was navigable this year, but it has been that way on a number of occasions, just since 1850. Thanks in great part to prevailing winds changing direction, as they are wont to do.

During the past 10,000 years since the end of the last Ice Age, all the civilizations of the world came to fruition, and they mainly prospered in the warmer periods.

There are now more polar bears dining on seals in the Arctic than when I was filming there some 30 years ago, thanks to good wildlife management. So good, in fact, that the global warmists did their best to lock out the lead manager on that project from an important meeting discussing polar bear population %u2014 a matter that Al Gore would use to falsely frighten children across the world.

Sea levels have been behaving themselves, slowly rising ever since the end of the Little Ice Age. However, much to the chagrin of the warmists, they have remained stationary since 2006, against all their predictions. Those who had bothered to read the IPCC's 2007 report might have noticed the following from Chapter 5:

Finally, the global average sea level rise for the last 50 years is likely to be larger than can be explained by thermal expansion and loss of land ice due to increased melting and thus for this period it is not possible to satisfactorily quantify the known processes causing sea level rise.

We can only guess why the likes of the BBC chose not to report this good news.

Just this year, the data behind Michael Mann's hockey stick was finally released. Mann had used only 12 carefully selected tree ring sequences to prepare his story, omitting 34 that didn't suit his purpose. This is surely one of the most scandalous examples of cherry picking on record, a blatant attempt to keep the world scared of carbon dioxide, and to keep reputations and research budgets safe. A gravy train, of jet-set travel to conferences in choice locations around the globe, each well-laced with top cuisine for the top tables and adulation from a regular caravansary of hangers-on, swelling a spurious and unscientific consensus.

I have spent over 50 years of my life talking to and about plants, while doing my bit to recycle carbon dioxide to keep the living world going round and round. Today, children are taught that carbon dioxide is a poison. No %u2014 it is odorless, colorless, and non-toxic. We drink it in fizzy drinks and lager, and it puts the rise in our daily bread. Most importantly, it is one of the most important components of all life, photosynthesis converts CO2 into oxygen and carbon, life's main building blocks. As long as plants have sufficient water and nutrients, their growth is enhanced by rising concentrations of carbon dioxide. CO2 is the free airborne fertilizer of the world.

Many experiments prove this fact of a carbon-rich atmosphere, experiments corroborated by millions of farmers across the world who cash in on the use of enhanced carbon dioxide in their greenhouses. Many even burn fossil fuel to boost production. Carbon dioxide plays a vital part in providing the 18 billion daily meals that do their best to feed the growing number of people across the world. The once-starving people of parts of the Sahel and Sahara deserts have returned to farm their lands, thanks to the shade of trees that now grow on some 300,000 square kilometers of their tribal lands, thanks in great part to rising levels of carbon dioxide.

The last thing Africa needs is to reduce its non-existent carbon footprint. Likewise, the last thing the economy of the world needs is to spend trillions of taxpayer money trying to solve the credit crunch by raising taxes to win a non-existent carbon dioxide war. The cost of the global warming scam is rising fast, and soon will pass the hundred billion dollar mark. Money that could have been spent solving real problems.

This August, right in the middle of the BBC's promised barbecue summer (which didn't come to pass), the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit disclosed that it had destroyed the raw data for its global surface temperature records. Despite the fact that they own some of the most powerful computers in the world, the reason they advanced was 'an alleged lack of storage space.' The very foundation of the global warming argument was gone forever. Draw your own conclusions, sabotage or desperation?

Remember the millennium bug, or the dot-com bubble? Tens of thousands of the highest-paid and most computer-literate people fell for it, and rued the day. Now we see folks forced to stand by and watch biodiesel, palm oil, and soya swallow up their biodiverse, sustainably farmed rangelands.

Earth's climate has remained within the limits tolerated by life for several billion years. During this time, the planet has experienced unimaginable volcanic events which liberated huge amounts of CO2. It has collided with extraterrestrial objects, triggering either an increase or decrease of temperature. Even the energy flow from the sun has varied over such a span of geological time.

And yet, here we are! Life remains. The global temperature is now well within life's limits, the present-day is cooler than much of previous geological time, and you may soon have the opportunity to buy a secondhand private jet from the worlds first carbon-neutral billionaire.


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
875. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 15
TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (01U)
11:00 am ACST December 13 2009
==========================================

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 (996 hPa) located at 13.5S 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone was estimated to be 80 kms north of Port Keats and 310 kms east northeast of Kalumburu and moving southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/ 24HRS

Gale-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Tropical cyclone Laurence is expected to move westward into the Timor Sea, and approach the north Kimberley coast tonight.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected on the coast between the WA/NT border and Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia late Sunday or early Monday. These may increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour during Monday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected in the far north Kimberley region later today and Monday, which may cause localised flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to WA/NT Border.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Mitchell Plateau.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.6S 128.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 13.6S 127.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 14.4S 126.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 hRS: 15.7S 125.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Cyclone Laurence has been exhibiting slow movement to the southwest, taking it further out into the waters of the Timor Sea. Poor fix based on Darwin and Wyndham radars. Deep convection is increasing near the centre and organisation continues to show improvement. DT based on a 0.8 wrap on the log10 spiral yields 3.0 with MET and PT in agreement FT is based on DT. Continued development is expected at standard rate as system moves further into the Timor Sea. Proximity to land has been the unfavourable factor but this will have less effect as the system moves away. Models generally have short term westward movement contrary to recent history. Interpretation is that models have system too weak and are steering with the 700hPa rather than 500hPa steering which seems to be directing the system. However, in the longer term as models deepen the system, movement tends west-southwesterly. Forecast track strategy is therefore to adjust model consensus track over next 18 hours for consistency with recent trends, following consensus thereafter, with landfall expected on north Kimberley coastline in 24 to 48 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46293
But there is a darker side to Miami (Apologies to To I Left My Heart in San Francisco):

I spend my life on Dixie Highway.
The blaring horns, they call to me
To be where the drivers of the cars
All belong behind bars,
The truckers' fumes will fill the air--
It's not fair.
I'm sitting (still)
On Dixie Highway
Oh, will I never be set free?
If I get home on you, Dixie Highway,
it's gona be the Turnpike for me.
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
And there's The Immortal Dave Barry's journey to same: Link (Could I find it at The Herald? Don't be silly.)
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
sung to "let it snow"

outside, the drops are still fallin',
and the bubbles on the puddles
are poppin',
all my shoes are wet,
and it's a real pain...
Stop the rain,
stop the rain,
stop the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atmo, Aqua: Hey, wait! We've got Mount Trashmore aka the Dade Dump. Link
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
and miajrz just rubs it in....sigh...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
no hills in miami... just Horatio, cool sunglasses, and The Who.

Horatio's never moldy. :(
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep, there is my cue. Leaving to retain my good mood. (Good mood source= rain about to stop here and we should be dry for almost a whole 24 hours.)

Was enjoying not talking about that subject for a while...


hey atmo I just did not read it if you know what I mean
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Sydney forecast.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Yep, there is my cue. Leaving to retain my good mood. (Good mood source= rain about to stop here and we should be dry for almost a whole 24 hours.)

Was enjoying not talking about that subject for a while...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:

Do y'all have any of those hill-thingys in Miami?

(j/k, I know better. Y'all do have just a little bit in the way of small rises as you go inland, but not what I would call hills)
(unless I am sorely mistaken)

They have a couple of interesting caves.

Not very extensive, still pretty interesting.
Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
864. auburn (Mod)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Do y'all have any of those hill-thingys in Miami?

(j/k, I know better. Y'all do have just a little bit in the way of small rises as you go inland, but not what I would call hills)
(unless I am sorely mistaken)


They have Dunes...not hills...
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50746
Quoting miajrz:
AquaK9, come down to Miami! (Forecast: Link) Just a tad closer than Aussie.

Do y'all have any of those hill-thingys in Miami?

(j/k, I know better. Y'all do have just a little bit in the way of small rises as you go inland, but not what I would call hills)
(unless I am sorely mistaken)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
With regard to the new Dipole circulation, I think we've seen it's effects here in northern New England. Since about 2005, we've lost the regular "swings" in our Spring and Fall weather, wherein Spring would have some cool, some cold, and some warm days. Now in mid-March, we settle into a cool and rainy pattern that lasts until mid-July (much later than before). The temparature average is a bit "above normal". Summer arrives only when the Bermuda High gets strong enough to overcome the polar circulations, and the change is sudden. Fall arrives a bit early in the form of the loss of the Bermuda High influence, and we return to cool and somewhat rainy weather that is persistant until early December. I think the best I can say is we're loosing the usual dynamics from hot to cold and back during the Spring / Fall seasons. Agricultural Spring, and "ice out" on the lakes is acknowledged as being about a week earlier. The Fall growing season is extending by 1 to as much as 3 weeks (not acknowledged yet). I like to call it the new Normal weather, though most of my friends still think the old patters will return. I doubt it.

Just food for thought.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

I have noticed the fingers and toes resembling prunes all the time now, here, too.


Hey Atmo it might stop by Tuesday just in time for the next one to hit.....
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AquaK9, come down to Miami! (Forecast: Link) Just a tad closer than Aussie.
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
Quoting aquak9:
Someone please, send some sun
I've had it with rain, it's over
it's done
Give me some light, some shine
from the sky
or I'm gonna get moldy, and
probably cry.

I have noticed the fingers and toes resembling prunes all the time now, here, too.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
857. auburn (Mod)
Quoting aquak9:
Someone please, send some sun
I've had it with rain, it's over
it's done
Give me some light, some shine
from the sky
or I'm gonna get moldy, and
probably cry.


Man wet dog...dont cry!!!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50746
Quoting atmoaggie:

From the looks of this, I would be tempted...


I would be tempted too, very tempted
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting taco2me61:
Its crazy here having a thunderstorm with lots of lightning and wondering if I should go get my camera to take lightning pictures?????

From the looks of this, I would be tempted...

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting aquak9:
Someone please, send some sun
I've had it with rain, it's over
it's done
Give me some light, some shine
from the sky
or I'm gonna get moldy, and
probably cry.



This is what I look at everyday, and it looks like this a lot. Jealous?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
853. auburn (Mod)
822....BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Too funny! Aubs got a ban coming! XD

Admin I know not what I do...I am new to this blog!!!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50746
852. auburn (Mod)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I don't know the models specifically, and I'm not familiar with '70s telescopes. But to set up an equatorial telescope, you should align the declination to 90, then point it at the north star through the finderscope before finding another telescopic object.


Those look like some massive thunderstorms near NOLA.


Thanx!!!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50746
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

GOOD! :)

Well, the point was that, even with these conditions I would be surprised if more than a few houses got flood waters inside. I might have an extreme case of difficult-to-imagine-flooding, but most places around here shouldn't have much of an issue with this.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Its crazy here having a thunderstorm with lots of lightning and wondering if I should go get my camera to take lightning pictures?????
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Quoting auburn:


Equatorial Refractor ...Model #6336...its from the 70s I think...its pretty big


I don't know the models specifically, and I'm not familiar with '70s telescopes. But to set up an equatorial telescope, you should align the declination to 90, then point it at the north star through the finderscope before finding another telescopic object.


Those look like some massive thunderstorms near NOLA.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh, that depends on where you are. One of the reasons I live where I do is because of the impossibility of flooding. We got 12 inches in ~6 hours once...no standing water anywhere within 1/4 miles of the house...

GOOD! :)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Someone please, send some sun
I've had it with rain, it's over
it's done
Give me some light, some shine
from the sky
or I'm gonna get moldy, and
probably cry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting miajrz:
#837, Atmo, is there something special about the ground you're on (eg, we're good at percolating water thru the petrified coral reef) or do you live on a --er, what's the word?--hill?

Like Auburn, I live on a hill...somewhat in the woods. A couple of miles south of Covington LA.

Highest point, by about 12 feet, in a 2 mile radius. And it is very infrequent that those streets 12 feet below me do get any water on them. Has happened twice in 4 years...and then still passable.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
well "Flooding" in Mobile right now..... Heavy Rain and thunderstorms...... "ugh"
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Aussie refer to Tropical Disturbance Advisories for TD01 from Nadi now

That is from Nadi
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
#837, Atmo, is there something special about the ground you're on (eg, we're good at percolating water thru the petrified coral reef) or do you live on a --er, what's the word?--hill?
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
842. auburn (Mod)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Witch? That's okay. Need some "white" magic; make rain stop.

Anybody got a sand-bagging station going?

Anyway, Auburn, please feel free to take down the AWESOME pic of Miz Gaga if you feel you should. I'll post when I learn how and take the heat!! Thanks again. Oh, and I wu'ed you, but no hurry at all. You guys got flooding event going on.


No flooding here...I live in the woods on a hill...so its got to really rain for me to know it...LOL
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50746
841. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Aussie refer to Tropical Disturbance Advisories for TD01 from Nadi now
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46293
840. xcool
kool
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Quoting auburn:


Still coming down here also...I cant even go out and get wood for the fire(I might melt)and it cold...


Witch? That's okay. Need some "white" magic; make rain stop.

Anybody got a sand-bagging station going?

Anyway, Auburn, please feel free to take down the AWESOME pic of Miz Gaga if you feel you should. I'll post when I learn how and take the heat!! Thanks again. Oh, and I wu'ed you, but no hurry at all. You guys got flooding event going on.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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