The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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You said Ocala but I may have to disagree with you. It is already almost freezing here in Gainesville and this time tommorow the GFS is showing precipitation. This to me meant that snow/sleet could occur this far north tom. night
Just going to have to wait and see the timing and strength of the shortwave as it interacts with the subtropical jet stream coming across Southern and Central Florida tonight. Right now I am confident in forecasting snow and/or sleet in Central Florida on Saturday, but not certain about South Florida just yet. The 12Z GFS did show the potential for freezing rain over the Everglades.
They did not pick up the short-wave that is moving across NM into TX either.
My opinion is that they model runs are under-estimating the instability in the mid-levels, running through the SW Sub-Tropical Jet.
Thats true. I can't rule out snow/sleet for Gainesville, but I don't see much moisture available until the cold front passes through into the Ocala area when the subtropical jet will interact with the shortwave and increase moisture and instability.
We went from 64F at NOON CST here,to 34F in 12 Hours.
That's a new 12 Hr fall rate.
Current Conditions
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 58 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
34.6 °F
Scattered Clouds
Windchill: 29 °F
Humidity: 68%
Dew Point: 26 °F
Wind: 8.1 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 13.6 mph
Pressure: 30.24 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Good night sir. Try and stay warm.
i see if instability in the atmosphere increases so does the chance.
Night cchs,the floor furnace is in good operating order here,thanx.
Be safe and prep for the Artic Plunge too,..
Exactly Bordonaro. This has been my thinking all along.
I'm prepared. I got Ukranian blood in me so I'm always ready. Been wearing shorts and a t-shirt when its been in the 30s down here. I'm actually loving this weather.
Exactly since it helps moisture to rise in the atmosphere thus increasing the moisture content in the atmosphere.
BTW, GET ME SOME MOISTURE!..lol..I got LOTS of cold air but NO moisture and I sure don't want to have a repeat of 1993 when I got snow for my birthday!..lol..I WANT IT ALL AND NOW!!!
NCEP FINALLY painted a surface L over SE AZ, about time they recognized the instability.
What we need is an older meteorologist, who has seen these scenarios before in the past to base this on climatology. My opinion is the computer models aren't good enough to pick up on these "once every 10-20 year events" and compile them into the picture!
play the video
Wow kewl, u think u can get some pics for us?
Yes, in extreme and anomalous patterns like we are experiencing right now, the models have some difficulty. But, I still would not be surprised in the least if we see more changes going into tomorrow.
It is a very interesting situation, so rare talking about the potential prospects of wintry precip in these parts.
LINK to Tampa Weather and the mention of "Gulf Effect Snow" and possible snow/sleet of the E coast of S Central FL.
Link
Yeah I saw that I'm using an old version of safari on my pc, so I don't have the link and image functions. My internet explorer keeps freezing up. lol freezing up
I see it now on the radar it's that little dot of pink and blue. lol
Hello Pat from the cold c.fl. I can appreciate what you're saying with the temp. plunge. I hit a high today of 59.9 at 1610hrs est and a midnight temp of 28.6.
sounds like a lot of fun, hey how come I wasn't invited?
Mary Esther and Destin are reporting light snow flurries at this hour
100 AM EST FRI JAN 08 2010 (Midnight CST)
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
FLZ001>010-012>015-080700-
PANHANDLE FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PENSACOLA CLOUDY 36 34 93 N17G25 30.14S WCI 25
PENSACOLA NAS LGT RAIN 39 36 89 N14G21 30.14R WCI 31
MILTON NAS CLOUDY 35 30 82 N10G22 30.16R WCI 27
CRESTVIEW LGT RAIN 35 33 92 NW12 30.15S WCI 27
VALPARAISO LGT RAIN 37 35 92 N17G28 30.11F WCI 27
MARY ESTHER FLURRIES 37 35 95 N20G29 30.11R WCI 26
DESTIN FLURRIES 37 34 87 N20G30 30.11R WCI 27
PANAMA CITY CLOUDY 44 42 93 N10 30.06S FOG WCI 39
TYNDALL AFB LGT RAIN 46 46 100 N16G25 30.04R WCI 40
APALACHICOLA CLOUDY 56 50 80 S12 30.01F
Friend, I have noticed the same thing, hopefully the "real, professional meteorologist" out there are picking up on that. Some mets are talking about a return to the icebox in about 10-14 days out, but I haven't heard any of them discuss the potential for severe weather.
Hey Bay Town is that precip in Browsville or just clutter?
*Rips hair out*...
Link
My reason is this. You can see the northern branch of the jet stream along the north Texas to mississippi to North Carolina line. The northern branch is slowing it's southern movement though the front with it has moved through bringing down the lower level cold air.
You can see the southern branch moving up out of the Gulf. It's starting to move up to almost the Louisiana coast line. Over Texas where the shortwave trough is both branches are trying to phase. I believe if the shortwave can manage to develop a low which it may be doing then this low woul move righ along the gulf coast. If is can use the southern branch moisture then areas along the gulf coast may see some winter weather by tomorrow night into Saturday.
Yes, if u look at both the weatherunderground website and surprisingly the weatherchanel website, it lists FWB as having rain and snow mix. It is 35 degrees over my house and it is finally mixing with sleet and snow in FWB. Probably the same in Niceville I imagine.
Good luck man and I do hope snow or some kind of wintery precip falls in every county of FL.
Sharp eye! The short-wave moving into W TX is already producing "virga", snow falling from the clouds, but evaporating before reaching the ground, see NWS S Plains loop below:
That short-wave energy will get pulled into the SW Jet and it may develop a surface Low, or just add to the instability in the SW Sub-Tropical Jet. It will be interesting to see this play out over Fr into Sa.
Oh yes, the phasing process of the two branchs of the jet stream. I mentioned this last night and again this afternoon. Yes, eventually in extreme patterns like this one right now, a merging of the air masses is going to occur. Now, my thinking is that the phasing will occur somewhere off shore the East Coast of FL by Sunday to develop a decent Low Pressure area. Just my theory.
But, with questions about timing the shortwave disturbances and placement of a developing Low pressure system for the "phasing" is the challenge. We should hopefully know more in the next 24-36 hours.
Thanks Bordonaro for the comeback. My citrus trees are taking a beating here in c.fl. I pulled the grapefruit off and made juice that I'm freezing but I think the navels are going to be a loss.
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