The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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Quite possible... of course assuming we have clear skies Sat/Sun nights and calm winds to maximize the radiation based cooling.
How about a little fun? A little "allegory"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDc23eXNvsk
Ohh, that's true.. Thought you lived up there.
All 4 valid tomorrow morning.
The Melbourne (KMLB)sounding is too warm from 750mb down.
Jacksonville (KJAX)is cold enough through the layers but an even drier low level sounding than Melbourne.
Tampa (KTPA)shows a warm air above cold surface air and close to a freezing precip signature-a thinner dry layer but still there.
And Tallahassee (KTLH) seems way dry.
And they may all look like KTLH pretty quick.
All I know is drizzel is now here and it is cold and getting colder...
Daytona Beach:
This Afternoon: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 48. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight: A chance of rain showers before midnight, then a chance of rain showers, flurries, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Wind chill values as low as 29. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Saturday: A slight chance of rain showers, flurries, and sleet before 11am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 11am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Wind chill values as low as 29. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wind chill values as low as 19. West northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 49. Windy, with a northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 54. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 30. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Benedictine nuns! Ohmygod!!! My knuckles just had a flashback to my days at Our Lady of Whipyourbuttboy!!!
Congrats. The Siberian air has arrived in Deep South TX, the dew point in Brownsville, TX is at 12F..Whatever precip you receive today should be either sleet/snow or greupel. Greupel is a "hybrid cross between a snowflake and a sleet pellet". They're soft and while 'lil frozen balls of precip.
In the 80s, they had progressed to kneeling on rice...
(Seriously, try it. Put some uncooked rice on a hard floor and kneel on it...sux bad after about 60 seconds.)
Amy is living in the 50s for once! take that! :P
ha! not for much longer! El sol es aqi!!!!!!!!!
:)
Dude. Exactly like myself.
Angers folks bad when I switch to lefty on the pool table for a shot near impossible by my usual righty leanings in all things not eating or writing.
John Wayne-Orange County, California
65 °F
Mostly Cloudy
and rising!!!!!
LOL - I try batting lefty every once in awhile, but I just feels wrong!
Looks like you'll just have to grapple with greupel. :-)
Camp Pendleton, California
76 °F
Scattered Clouds
read it and weep, Conan!!!!
;)
You guys have the best chance in Fl.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2010
...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...
.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA. WHILE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS THAT WILL SETUP OVER THE AREA IS.
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID WEST. THE TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRAG
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WITH SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS WE
ARE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH...VERY COLD AND DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT`S WAY INTO THE REGION.
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WEAK SHOWERS WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TO LIMIT ANY PRECIP. ANY
PRECIP THAT WILL FALL TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL AS RAIN DUE THE FACT
THAT THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THICK LAYER A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...AS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SAT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. EVEN WITH OVC CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ENOUGH
COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH TO SUPPORT A HARD FREEZING
WARNING FOR LEVY CO AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR CITRUS...SUMTER AND
HERNANDO.
BY TOMORROW...EXPECT CLOUDY...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOMORROW. ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND OF 10-15 MPH. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF
WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO THE FL STRAITS BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
Girl, you just bask in the warm, dry early January temps! Enjoy, soak in ALLL those golden rays of sunshine, while you can!
IF the GFS 12Z model runs are correct, as the last 2 days have shown almost the same thing, better get that umbrella out, dust off the cob-webs, make sure the hinges lock on it, because you are gonna get some nice "Modiki El Nino" Pacific storms, one right after the other.
While the rest of the USA enjoys a beautiful warming pattern!!
Yes it does. Haha. This is weird!
Amy...quit screwin' around on the blog...and return your phone calls...
you sound like my Dad!!!!!!
They could really use the snow in the Sierra Nevadas...and stock up on the water for later in the year.
Problem is, every time southern Cali gets enough water to support 1/2 of it's population, someone gets a landslide through the house.
IF the GFS 12Z model runs are correct, as the last 2 days have shown almost the same thing, better get that umbrella out, dust off the cob-webs, make sure the hinges lock on it, because you are gonna get some nice "Modiki El Nino" Pacific storms, one right after the other.
While the rest of the USA enjoys a beautiful warming pattern!!
bring it on!! I'll just be singing in the rain! The WARM rain!
:)
tell me about it...a few years ago, I live in Laguna Beach, and heard a loud CRACK early in the AM...it was the hill fallind down...took out several houses and a street with it....Blue Bird Canyon ate it big time....
Question to the normal snow getters if any have nerve damage what do you do for the cold makeing the burning like you are warming from frostbite feeling that just is not seeming to go away.
MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM/GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.
No thanks, sounds a wee bit painful. I was a klutz as a kid, tore up me knees pretty bad, got the scars to prove it.
OH, thank you Mrs. Presslord...Mr. Awake didn't really like it at all.
Add on "Revolution Road" -- and we'll be even. If your wife puts toothpicks in your eyelids. (That's the first film w/DiCaprio & Winslet since Titanic.) What a downer -- so of course I loved it and wept while hubby slept.
Love ya' back! Say, is there a movie "A Fine Line Between Love and Hate"? Is it any good?
I think they had issues with the TPW data from GPS satellites.
Email:
Topic: *GPS data outage*
Date/Time Issued: *January** 8, 2010 1550 UTC*
Product(s) or Data Impacted: *The blended TPW products - degraded over CONUS due to the GPS dropouts.*.
Date/Time of Initial Impact: *Started around 01/08/2010, 0800 UTC.*
Date/Time of Expected End: *TBD* **
Length of Event: *Until further notice
*
Impacts on Users and Significance: *Unknown*
User Actions: *None*
Details/Specifics of Change: *The ESPC has not received the GPS data from NOAAPort since 0800 UTC, January 8, 2010. The NOAA
ESRL/GSD is being contacted for the problem.
*
Sorry NOAA, those new "super-computers", that "Mary and Joe Taxpayer" bought you have a "lil'bug in da' software"!
OR, is it a clever ploy to "mess up on the weather forecasts" because S-N-O-W might fall in FL?????
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