The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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still calling for the 8th for tomorrow.. most likely early though
For about 3 minutes (a friend tried it in St Louis with a Sears mower with a 6 horse B&S motor; the snow melts a little, ice forms inside the body and depending on the temp (it was about 10F at the time) the ice inside the body stopped the blade...
I've also opened a can of ATF and put it, opening down, into a bucket of bleach...now THAT's interesting...the cops showed up and everything
Sounds like that last one was put in by someone from here who has been forecasting snow in FL for a week.
A Florida Snow blower=your Leaf Blower :0)!
Oh yeah, go Longhorns...wow that pains me.
Oh, the precip is well past us; we have clearing skies, a temp of 26.8F and a WC of 17F...it's warming nicely
HOOK 'EM, HORNS!!! BTHOB!!!
Yikes!!! well hope everyone is going to be safe with everything is going on..
Actually it stuck that year in Port Orange but it was just enough that you could make a snowishball that if you didn't throw it fast enough it would melt in your hand. But driving from DB to PO had the wipers going and with that speed thing adding tot he effect looked like a real "Snow shower"
Ugh, this pains me, but after being a t.u. prospect student for so long, I guess I must approve. Gig 'Em Horns.
As long as there is no power outages, we're fine. IF that does happen, simple, just use the fireplace for heat. If it's a long outage we can load up the cooler and stick the food in it outside, it's below freezing.
Yeah, the forecast is on track to reach the mid 50s by late this afternoon. Just a very brief warm-up occuring ahead of the stron Arctic frontal boundary moving rapidly S/SE today. Back into the deep freeze late tonight right on through the weekend!
I quick peek at the model runs seem to want to slow the forward progress of the arctic frontal boundary during Friday-Saturday period. GFS first picked up on this on their 12z run from yesterday. Given the active southern jet and shortwaves diiving down the Polar Jet, the trend of slowing down the frontal boundary could indicate a possible "phasing" process this weekend. A very interesting period coming up here in my view. I am curious to see the model runs for later today.
Oh yes, An un ususal strong high pressure system causing a kink in the jets stream? Oh I know, It's caused by the bitter republicans who are still managing the HARRP complex. Yeah that's it.
I'm in north Texas so the leading edge of the really cold stuff is sliding past us now on the second wave
Yes, actually; I'll be 19 with 31 years on the job on 2/3
LOL...if the Aggies were playing, I'd be behind 'em all the way! Someone's gotta beat the SEC before they eat NCAA football alive!!
\m/
I saw yesterday where there was realtively minor damage
I'm curious, but the models don't seem to be predicting this quite the way it's unfolding (which isn't a shock, but things are looking a little wetter and longer than expected. Northside Atlanta is ranging from about 35 to 37 degrees from Marietta to Duluth.
My question is, is the system moving faster, and therefore out sooner, or has it tapped into more moisture and we might see something happen similar to what the RUC is currently showing?
And all he wants for HIS birthday is a Longhorns win...LOL!!!!
\m/
000
FXUS62 KMFL 071713
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1213 PM EST THU JAN 7 2010
TEMPS BOTTOMED OUT ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF AREA AND AS THE
CLOUD COVER BECAME THICKER, TEMPS HELD STEADY OR INCREASED THROUGH
330AM... THEREFORE DECIDED TO DISCONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING WHERE
TEMPS WERE ABOUT 37 AND ABOVE. APPARENTLY THIS COULD HAVE BEEN A
BAD CALL FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY WERE THE LAND BREEZE HAS INCREASED
AND APPARENTLY IS ADVECTING IN COLDER TEMPS FROM MARTIN AND SAINT
LUCIE COUNTIES AND APPEAR TO BE COMPENSATING JUST FINE WITH THE
LOSS OF SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT ANY RATE TEMPS FELL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THERE BY MIDNIGHT, INC TO AROUND 40 BY 330AM AND
ARE NOW BACK INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PB
COUNTY... AND UNFORTUNATELY MAY HAVE TO REISSUE IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...SIGH.
A 170 TO 190KT JET STREAK WILL EXIT THE EAST
COAST OF THE US SAT KEEPING S FL IN THE FAVORED QUAD ONCE AGAIN
RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE REAL KICKER HOWEVER WILL BE THE TEMPS... THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE DOING THE AIRMASS JUSTICE AS A CLOSER
EVALUATION OF THE THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THAT FARTHER TREND
DOWNWARD IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER INTERESTING NOTE... FARTHER
EVALUATION OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A MIX RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A BIT OF FROZEN PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE REGION
SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING... BUT THE CHANCE OF THIS IS SLIM... JUST
NOT IMPOSSIBLE. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE SIBERIAN AIRMASS WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS S FL WITH VERY COLD MORNING IN STORE FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. FINALLY BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD THE RIDGE SLIPS EAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FINALLY
RETURNING THE EAST FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
Saw a report on the strawberries yesterday. It was pretty interesting...they're spraying them with water to freeze them on purpose. The report said that works as long as it isn't an extended freeze (more than a few days.)
Nope. As a tiger fan and a former Aggie, I hope they tie, or something, I guess.
I am cheering for defense and a 0-0 tie called after 8 overtimes that all end in a missed field goal by both teams...
ROTFLMF(rozen)AO!!!!!
Atmo, if your current gig doesn't pan out, you have a brilliant future in diplomacy!!
\m/
Haha, no kidding. I was actually a longhorn backer for a large part of my life. That's only recently changed when I started looking at Meteorology schools. Now, here I am just about to enter my second semester at Texas A&M, and I am loving every minute of it!
Good for you!! I like the Aggies just fine, 364 days out of the year. :)
\m/
You don't hire for an IT department do you? They always want degree, 3 certifications, 20 years experience and under 30. :>|
Just admit that you want UT to win.
Former Aggie?! Once an Aggie, always an Aggie... :P
Black ice on bridges and overpasses according to local news, will be our biggest winter precip here in Destin in the a.m.. Be careful and avoid if you can say they. Hello! We are surrounded by water. Bridges everywhere you go. LOL
Too funny (well, to me)... Maryland TerpTalk agrees (scroll down a bit to see"The Eyes of Texas Are Upon Us):
No one really knows what black ice is anymore...it gets a little sleety, black ice...a touch of freezing rain, black ice. Kids, if you can see the ice, then it isn't black ice...that's why they call it black ice: it blends into the road surface so that one minute you're doing fine and the next, on apparently dry road, you're not
Yeah, "former student" is what I meant.
Others: "Former student" is official code words for what everyone else calls alumni...
Haha, nice recovery.
but how could that happen?? the cold air is behind the rain...
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