The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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There's nothing much out here. You're description may be right...
You're correct...sun now sets at...5:00 PM CST
Dont see that very often as well.
That Mideast storm the GFS depicts looks like a huge snowfall event for S. Ontario, plus it's a California-Texas low. Also if the 12z GFS scenario plays out then NOLA would expect to see 2.5 inches of rain in 6 hours @ 300h.
Temp is a 32.1 so .1 above feezing :P
Animated GOM View,Large
I guess the jet stream stopped moving south.
I personally think doing that is a BAD idea at this moment!
12z klix sounding shows typical Arctic temperature profile with
shallow mixed layer of 1400 feet...then a large temperature
inversion/near zero lapse rate up to nearly 650 mb. Earlier lake
effect clouds formed near the base of the inversion above the
mixed layer. Kjan sounding showed the cloud producing low level
moisture above the elevated mixed layer that is trapped in a sharp
inversion from 925 to 900 mb. Sounding analysis and ruc13 model
soundings suggest highs may only reach the middle 30s today...so may
lower the highs a degree or two with another update before noon.
22/dew point
&&
Aviation...
a little bit of lake effect cloudiness at kmsy allowed MVFR ceilings for
a few hours earlier this morning. Additional upstream cold advection
clouds could possibly produce a period of similar conditions at
kmcb. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected through Sunday. 35
&&
Marine...
winds weakened a bit this morning...and should continue into the
afternoon hours...so lowered Small Craft Advisory into exercise caution over the
coastal waters...and dropped exercise caution over the tidal lakes.
A strong upper level trough axis is expected to sweep through the
area tonight. A period of stronger winds can be expected as this
trough axis slips through. As a result...another round of Small
Craft Advisory conditions will be possible tonight into early
tomorrow morning. Winds and seas will quickly die off by Sunday
night...as the surface ridge becomes centered over the central Gulf
Coast. This ridge will remain in place through midweek. 32/35
&&
I believe he said some people at accuweather, I would guess Sir. Bastardi included. I know it could get bad but calling it the superstorm right now is just too early.
..say it aint so,
LOL
It will be interesting to see what the model runs show later today into Monday. There will be a definate moderating trend in the USA, from Mon 1-11 through Sat 1-23-10, according to the GFS 12Z run.
I do see GFS is forecasting the "Icebox" to return on 1-24 and 1-25-10, building a bad Nor'Easter.
Impressive low.
WUnderful...
okay
It aint so
xD
LOL...thing looks wicked. Crazy winter.
The nifty fifty! Happy BDAY 2 U!!!!
NOLA and GOM WunderMap®
Note the flow aloft,itsa going to be a Bad,Frigid night for Many.
I didn't even want to speak about that possibility. However, I noticed that in the models runs as well. After what we have been through lately, our tolerance levels are at at real low at this time!
I don't even what to think about this for now. LOL..
There is no article,,the bloggers there are creating the Superstorm ...as usual.
And most likely fed with neat Blue Maps with Giant arrows saying SUPERSTORM!!!!!!!!!!
Is the NAO a description of what is happening rather than an explanation of the cold weather?
Does the jet stream really bring cold weather to the surface or is it set up by the surface temperature?
Not a smart idea. The only thing similar is a large High over Quebec next weekend!!!!!
or sheep?
OBSERVATIONS ARE RUNNING BELOW GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM...SO HAVE LEANED IN THE NAM`S COLDER DIRECTION.
AM EXPECTING LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE 25-30F RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE L/M 30S ALONG THE COASTS. FOR THIS REASON...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FL.
A WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
Excerpts from this afternoon's Extended Forecast Discussion
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A STRONG SFC SYSTEM EVOLVING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO BY FRI...AS SRN STREAM 500MB TROUGH REACHES HIGH AMPLITUDE VCNTY OF SWRN TX AND NRN MEXICO.
Cool
It shows up well here in Miss sliding South.
Maybe some "Lake Pontchartrain Effect" sneaux.LOL
Trying to use solar forcings to explain all the recent climatic changes, when the most likely cause of the warming (an increase in GHGs) is right there, is ignorant. Even if an increase in solar radiation were to decrease cloud formation, the current temperature record does not fit well with solar activity. You would expect the upper atmosphere to cool, not warm with tropospheric warming because when more greenhouse gases are present, less heat radiates out to space and this occurs in the troposphere, where the atmospheric gas is more concentrated. So with less heat radiating to space due to greenhouse gases, less reaches the upper atmosphere, and therefore the upper atmosphere cools and contracts. This only proves that the additional warming is caused by greenhouse gases, not by an increase in solar activity, because then you'd expect the upper atmosphere to warm as well.
Also, global temperatures have not been cooling since 1998.Link The warmest year in the past 15 years was either 2005 or 1998, depending on which data you look at. But it is pointless to think that because a given year in the past was the warmest on record, global warming has not stopped. 1998 was the strongest El Nino on record, which saw mass coral bleaching and natural disasters worldwide. While global temperatures were relatively stable for the past decade and solar activity as well as CO2 emissions have since declined, the biosphere continues to exhibit the signs of warming because the momentum is still there, and the total heat content stored in the oceans is still rising. What will happen when global warming starts accelerating again, this time at a steeper pace, in the next few years (when solar activity picks up, economic GHG emissions pick up, positive feedback cycles intensify, methane clathrate releases continue, the biosphere starts to emit carbon, ocean currents slow down and produce feedbacks, and abnormal levels of ENSO and other oscillations continuously drive global temperatures briefly upward)?
Saying that the atmosphere would suddenly increase or decrease its energy output without a correlation with either greenhouse gases or solar activity would seem to imply that heat suddenly comes out of nowhere. This violates the first law of thermodynamics.
Ozone is a greenhouse gas, but it has little effect on the Earth's surface temperature at the low concentrations in the stratosphere. However, cooling has been observed in some parts of East Antarctica, likely due to stronger sinking of air and kabatic winds. The anthropogenic effects on ozone in the past century have contributed to a net warming of about +0.1C.Link
CO2 does not form clumps in a way that would negate the greenhouse effect. Measurements have been taken on summits of mountains, in river valleys, in forests, over the oceans, and in the Arctic, and the CO2 concentrations were always roughly the same level. Besides, the ice core temperature record has been strongly correlated with atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and some other greenhouse gases.
On a side note I also have some very cold sheep. lol
Do you have any heating system in south Florida? Although I don't know if that would be nessecary for a few days of low but above-freezing temperatures.
Gulf Of Mexico - JSL Color Infrared Loop
Note the Cold Artic Air everywhere also.
Statement as of 12:07 PM CST on January 09, 2010
... Hard freeze warning is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 am
CST Sunday...
A hard freeze warning remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to
9 am CST Sunday.
Temperatures will quickly fall back below freezing shortly after
sunset with hard freeze conditions expected again tonight. Another
hard freeze will be possible Sunday night through the early
morning hours Monday morning.
The duration of these very cold... hard freeze conditions is very
rare for our area... and is potentially dangerous and deadly to
humans... and will likely cause damage to property if precautions
are not taken.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Preparations for long duration hard freeze conditions should be
rushed to completion by early this evening. A hard freeze warning
means temperatures in the mid 20s or lower are expected for
several hours. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation. Those venturing outside should wear warm
clothes... preferably in layers... and a hat.
To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor pipes...
pipes should be wrapped... drained... or allowed to drip slowly.
Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain their
systems... or cover any above-ground pipes to protect them from
freezing.
Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as
much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor
pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and
fresh unfrozen water.
Be particularly careful with portable heaters... there is a danger
of fire or poisonous fumes.
Make frequent checks on the elderly. Make sure their furnaces are
working and heating the house properly.
Record Report
Statement as of 07:25 am CST on January 09, 2010
... Record daily minimum temperature tied at Houma...
A minimum temperature of 23 degrees has been reached at Houma. This
ties the record set in 1970.
To keep the Crazy Mardi Gras tourist
from blocking my alley driveways to the street,Im 1 block from a Uptown Parade route...LOL
Plus,..I feed the 2nd District NOPD Commander and his Staff during the Parades too,..
Certainly. Its quite interesting to see the temp discrepancies in such a small area. Ranging from 33 to 39 degrees.
That model run shows significant snowfall in S. Ontario from the first storm while the 12z from NCEP does not, why is that?
By the way, the reason the northern continents are freezing over while the poles are warming is because the slowing of ocean currents has removed the "floodgates" for the cold Arctic air, allowing the cold air to flood over the continental landmasses while the warmer air stays over the oceans...and the poles.
The -NAO slows the Westerlies from Greenland to the Azores High. A huge blocking Greenland High has forced the Polar Jet to keep continually dumping Arctic air into the US over the last 7 days straight.
However, as we speak the Greenland High is weakening, allowing the weather systems to move along, at both the surface and at the Jet Stream levels.
Most people with central air-conditioning have a heat unit as well. In the 70's the winters got quite cold for long periods. While they are used infrequently, they are good to have. The older houses in Florida were always built with a gas heater or wall units with coils. Not a good idea, but that is what they did in those days. Many older houses still have them.
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