The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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What is the time between occurrences of snow or sleet in the South Florida region?
Lucky devils...
Updated: 10 min 40 sec ago
Light Snow
36 °F
Light Snow Ice Pellets Mist
Windchill: 25 °F
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 32 °F
Wind: 18 mph from the NW
Pressure: 30.15 in (Falling)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1000 ft
Overcast 6000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Here in Jax potentially up to at least 15 hours of freezing temps from just past sunset tonight well into tomorrow morning. This could be even longer. Temps may not get above freezing until noon tomorrow.
There really is none, it happens when it happens I guess. It gets more calculatable in N central and North Florida.
Seems cold air advection is chilling the lower Levels Ike,,.same happened here last night after the Mix,..switched over to Flurries for about an Hour,way to dry to stick though,here.
Same here, it was not easy to see but it was noticeable.I was outside around 2 est.
That's 2C, and at that temperature it regularly snows. At my location the warmest temperature I've seen it snow was about 6C (43F) but the humidity has to be lower.
(30 18.894' N, 90 16.831' W)
Saturday, January 09, 2010 at 2:30:00 PM
Central Standard Time (CST)
Saturday, January 09, 2010 at 20:30 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Air Temperature 1.4 C ( 34.5 F)
Wind Direction 320.8 NW
Wind Speed 5.2 m/s ( 11.7 MPH)
Relative Humidity 46.0 %
Barometric Pressure 1029.01 mb ( 30.39 inch Hg)
Solar Radiation 0.50 kW/m2
Quantum Radiation (PAR) 909 E/m2/s
Precipitation (Today) 0.00 mm (0.00 in.)
Hydrographic Information
Water Temperature 5.1 C ( 41.1 F)
Water Height (what is it?) 1.35 m ( 4.4 ft.)
Salinity 0.1 ppt.
Turbidity 37.9 NTU
Cold I would guess,..LOL
Last time it snowed in South Florida was 1977. Unknown if it ever snowed before that.
And thats why there is no real return time for snow in South Florida.
I'm not unf but I think you'll definitely see your mid-twenties...and maybe me too.
At least they're not predicting teens like in the panhandle.
BTW, amazing seeing the light snow reports down in Cocoa Beach and Melbourne at this hour. Absolutlely amazing! Bloggers living down there, pleast take pictures of the event before it quickly ends.
Pre-1900
* 1774: A snowstorm extends across much of the state. The affected residents speak of it as an "extraordinary white rain."[1]
* 1797: Land surveyor Andrew Ellicott reports 8-inch (203mm) snowdrifts near the source of the St. Marys River in Baker County.[4]
* January 11, 1800: Over 5 inches (127mm) of snow is on the ground along the St. Marys River to the north of Jacksonville, the highest recorded snowfall total in Jacksonville history.[2]
* January 13, 1852: Several hours of snow accumulates to a total of 0.5 inch (13mm) in Jacksonville.[1]
* February 28, 1855: Light snow flurries are reported in Jacksonville.[1]
* January 29, 1868: Light sleet falls throughout the night in northeastern Florida.[1]
* February 28, 1869: During the morning hours, some snow flurries are reported in Jacksonville.[1]
* January 10, 1873: At 7:25 a.m., a few snowflakes fall near Jacksonville.[1]
* February 4 & 5, 1875: Light sleet occurs between midnight and sunrise on both dates.[1]
* January 4, 1879: For an hour and a half, sleet falls in Jacksonville before turning to rain. The rainfall covers grounds and trees with ice early on January 5, breaking the limbs of many orange trees.[1]
* January 5, 1887: An inch (25mm) of snow falls at Pensacola.[5]
* January 14, 1892: 0.4 inch (10mm) of snow is reported at Pensacola.[5]
* February 14, 1892: Pensacola reports 3 inches (76mm) of snow.[6]
* December 27, 1892: Light snow falls in various intervals in the northeastern portion of the state.[1]
* January 18, 1893: Falling sleet turns to snow before later changing to rain in Jacksonville.[1]
* February 14, 1895: Two short durations of light snow are reported in Jacksonville.[1]
* February 12 & 13, 1899: Rain changes to sleet and later turns to snow during the Great Blizzard of 1899, with the snow falling for about 8 hours. With temperatures of about 10 F , the snow accumulates to 2 inches (51mm) near Jacksonville[1] and 4 inches (102mm) at Lake Butler.[6] In some locations, the snow remains on the ground for several days.[
Much warmer by the middle of next week.
?
Picture of the December 23, 1989 Jacksonville snowfall
doggie as in that fluffy white thing in (sorry if I get this wrong) wifes hands.
I forgot he's in my avatar.
Yeah...that's the one that drowned.
SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEED TO MENTION THE FACT THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF TAMPA TO ORLANDO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS CRASHING TO BELOW 1 K FT ACROSS THE LAKE REGION BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS GOING TO END UP BEING A RACE BETWEEN THE COLD
AIR AND ENDING PRECIP. THE PRECIP LIKELY WILL END BEFORE IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN RAIN ACROSS THE SERVICE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SLEET MIXING IN
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD...MAINLY NORTH OF AN EVERGLADES CITY TO WEST PALM
BEACH LINE. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND IF
IT OCCURRED IT WOULD HAVE NO ADVERSE IMPACTS. IT`S CRAZY TO EVEN
HAVE TO DISCUSS THIS IN SOUTH FLORIDA!
NWS Miami
Was under freezing for 69-71 Hours,major water outages ,fires and low pressure from the mains bursting
sorry to hear that :(.
Like THAT was gonna happen.
Mid-Twenties are cruel. Dewpoint of 10º? We'll remember today for a long time.
The Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System (GCOOS)
Yeppars,,was almost 3 and my first real memories are of Mom bring snow inside for me to play with.
Miss River at Audubon now reading a water temp of 40.0F
Wowsa,,..
That near a record?
its raining in the low 40s =D
Doubt it,..in that Dec 89 freeze,the Lake froze out from the S. Shore,the rocks out a few feet,so I'd say that was the record.
exactly. I've never seen it rain in Miami under 50. You are witnessing a rare event on it self.
Well when under freezing for that long it makes sense.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
239 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2010
...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...
.SYNOPSIS...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OUT W AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE E. A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
IS CENTERED OVER THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK STEADILY TO THE SE AND SHOULD EXIT
DIXIE COUNTY BY AROUND 21Z. TEMPS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO RISE UNDER
STRONG COLD ADVECTION. MANY AREAS TOOK UNTIL 18Z TO REACH THE
FREEZING MARK. WIND CHILL READINGS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S AS OF 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THE LONG DURATION COLD WAVE OF 2010 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE
OZARKS. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
URBAN...COASTAL AND RURAL AREAS. WE WILL ALSO SEE WIND CHILL
READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDEST AREAS BY
DAWN WITH LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. LIKE TODAY...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL
NOON FOR WIND CHILL READINGS TO RISE ABOVE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
20 DEGREES. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW UNTIL LATE MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. BY 12Z MON...THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL BE OVER SRN MS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND MAY
ACTUALLY GO CALM. WIND CHILL WILL THEREFORE BE LESS OF A FACTOR.
THIS NIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION GIVING WAY
TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV
NUMBERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE A BIT OF A
RANGE IN TEMPS IN LEON COUNTY WITH CENTRAL TLH ABOUT 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE AIRPORT. WITH THE HIGH CENTER SETTLING TO THE N
CENTRAL GULF COAST...OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO WLY AND
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS QUICKLY TO THE E
OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF 50 EVERYWHERE ON MON. LOOK FOR ONE MORE HARD FREEZE MON NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
TO AROUND 30 AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE AN EVEN GREATER RANGE IN
TEMPS ACROSS LEON THAN SUN NIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS AT THE AIRPORT AND
OUTLYING RURAL AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN CENTRAL TALLAHASSEE.
;)
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