The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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That's for sure...
"Tonight
Cloudy. Showers developing in the evening...then rain likely after midnight...possibly mixing with or changing to light sleet late. Lows 26 to 30. No sleet accumulation expected. South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest 10 to 15 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent."
I can only imagine Pat.
Keep Hope..Alive.
Geaux SNEAUX...!
Yes it is. It has been for the past couple of days. I have been watching that closely on water vapor imagery since Tuesday night when a rather vigourous Upper Level disturbance developed in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles off the coast of Mexico. Lots of energy and moisture is streaming NE across Mexico and into the GOM by the southern stream jet, which extended to that EPAC disturbance.
It has taken quite awhile for the models to pick up on this, but they seem to have finally picked up on this component. Therefore, we have one of the primary reasons for the potential frontal wave/GOM Low formation on the boundry in the next 24 hours.
For Tallahassee!!!
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers late in the evening...then rain likely after midnight. The rain may mix with sleet toward sunrise. Lows 31 to 35. Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest 10 to 15 mph late. Chance of rain 70 percent.
chancerain
Friday
Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain or light sleet through mid morning...then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 39 to 42. North winds around 15 mph and gusty.
Wacky stuff...
GOM Rainbow Still
Isn't this why they have been calling for possible snow in Central Florida?
I was just checking the moisture and the gulf and it does lokk like the front has stalled a bit what do you think????
Taco :0)
Looks like my temp is going down like i thought it would about this time..
Stay tuned,..this is only page 2 of a 72 Hr Novel.
THE NEAR RECORD-BREAKING COLD WILL EVEN HIT THE
GULF COAST AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE
WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES. DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 10S TO LOWER 20S
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY REBOUNDING TO THE 30S DURING THE
DAYTIME.
FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY NEAR THE GULF
COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD RAIN TO FALL.
BY EARLY SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITHIN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING WHICH MAY MIX SNOWFLAKES INTO THE FALLING
PRECIPITATION.
i am 40 mi north of panama city and 40 mles south of dothan ala. it looks like it is already snowing in montgomery and if it gets as close as trot or so i could ride up and see it.
i am very excited.i remember the snow in 1989.
Saturday: A chance of rain showers, snow showers, and sleet before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 44. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
The way I explained the effects of the southern jet stream, and the graphic you displayed on that post, yeah, it is what the models have latched on to certainly.
wouldnt hovering around 32 mean its not mixed, but more likely to be snow completely?
Its interesting, when forecasting snow for anywhere in florida, they always try as hard as possible to under predict it, I guess they are afraid of what people would say if they forecast "SNOW LIKELY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA" and its just plain rain.
I am not seeing any snow obs in Montgomery...Birmingham, northward.
http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=ALZ044&local_place=Montgomery+AL&zoneid=CST&offse t=21600
Anniston, Alabama (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 57 sec ago
Light Snow
35 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 29 °F
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 28 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 30.12 in (Steady)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 3900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 610 ft
Again, just go slower; no fast corrections and NO HARD BRAKING; if the tires break loose on snow, steer into the spin, if they break loose on ice, cover your head and hope the airbag deploys
yikes its going down..
(click for, well, you know)
Those are some pretty good models in agreement....The Sub-tropical Jet and the moisture it will bring is highly underestimated it appears...Saturday nite could even be very interesting.
So do you...there is no place in the CONUS that is without some small chance of a temblor, and let it stop raining for 6 months...all that dry wicker in the fields will burn
If ice is known to be present, anything over 35 mph on the interstates is a great way to join all of the cars in the ditch.
If you drive a rear-wheel drive vehicle and decide to go 50+ mph, prepare to be pointed at and laughed at, and also try not to take out anyone besides yourself. In fact, just go ahead and aim your vehicle at the ditch to be sure you don't hurt anyone else. You were going to end up there, anyway.
Flood you are so funny...... the only problem will be that they want have a choice due to the fact that everyone will be driving slow because of the rubber-neckin going own....
I do like the last part of that saying.....
"Hopes the Airbag Deploys"
Taco :0)
Yep; that was an 18 month event; Norway had it's coldest winter in 30 years in 1924...minor correction, not a decades long slide. Try again!
Current Conditions
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 22 min 31 sec ago
Light Rain
49.1 F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 45 °F
Wind: 2.2 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 6.3 mph
Pressure: 30.09 in (Rising)
Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 3000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Thank you...my observations come from years of driving various vehicles of all sizes in all manner of weather...my rule for most people in a snowstorm: "Stay home amd leave the driving to those of us who know how"...
Atmo, well put; you drive at speeds dictated by road conditions and visibility; snow falling at an inch an hour, depending no it's consistency , can leave visibility at about 75-100'; not enough time to stop yourself on slick roads if the traffic ahead is stopped at any great speed. That, my friends, is a lesson I learned the hard way; crossed the median into oncoming traffic and back again just ahead of the stoppage...didn't hit anything but wow, did I need a drink!
We've heard that there were fuel shortages there...any truth to that, rachaelh?
Here is some interesting looks to ponder all the same time.....will the Colder air make it to Florida before the moisture gets pushed out? Its gonna be very close.....
Now is the time to prep your Home and Vehicles as to whats a coming in.
Record cold for many.
All the more reason for me to sit this one out. I'd really rather not deal with that and the fact that it will be dark. I may be naive, but I'm not dumb ;)
models goin back and forth..
looks good for orlando or near them..
Which part. Have friends in Basingstoke, Hampshire. Don't think he's been to work in a couple of days now.
I agree about the Northern part of Florida...they really could see far more than just a flake....i would not be surprised if Southern Georgia gets hit very good with Snow.
Current Conditions
London / Heathrow Airport, United Kingdom (Airport)
Updated: 34 min 55 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
32 F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 29 F
Wind: 9 mph from the North
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.97 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1280 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2165 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 79 ft
Come on precip pull on north!!
John Wayne-Orange County, California
71 °F
Clear
:)
happy Hippo weather dance
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