Haiti's tragic hurricane history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on January 15, 2010

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The catastrophic earthquake of 2010 is only the latest--and worst--natural disaster to devastate the nation of Haiti. Up until the quake, the hurricane season of 2008 was the cruelest natural disaster ever experienced in Haiti. Four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on the impoverished nation. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country. Particularly hard-hit was Gonaives, the fourth largest city. According to reliefweb.org, Haiti suffered 793 killed, with 310 missing and another 593 injured. The hurricanes destroyed 22,702 homes and damaged another 84,625. About 800,000 people were affected--8% of Haiti's total population. The flood wiped out 70% of Haiti's crops, resulting in dozens of deaths of children due to malnutrition in the months following the storms. Damage was estimated at over $1 billion, the costliest natural disaster in Haitian history. The damage amounted to over 5% of the country's $17 billion GDP, a staggering blow for a nation so poor.


Figure 1. The flooded city of Gonaives after Hurricane Hanna, September 3, 2008. Image credit: Lambi Fund of Haiti.

The year 2008 was only one of many years hurricane have brought untold misery to Haiti. Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 passed just north of the country as a tropical storm, dumping 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The resulting floods killed over 3,000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes . Unfortunately for Haiti, its name appears several times on this list. Hurricane Flora killed over 8,000 people in 1963, making it the 6th most deadly hurricane ever. An unnamed 1935 storm killed over 2,000, and Hurricane Hazel killed over 1,000 in 1954. More recently, Hurricane Gordon killed over 1,000 Haitians in 1994, and in 1998, Hurricane Georges killed over 400 while destroying 80% of all the crops in the country.


Figure 2. Hurricane Georges Approaching Haiti: September 22, 1998

Why does Haiti suffer a seemingly disproportionate number of natural disasters? The answer in that in large part, these are not natural disasters--they are human-caused disasters. Haiti is the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere. With oil too expensive for the impoverished nation, charcoal from burnt trees has provided 85% or more of the energy in Haiti for decades. As a result, Haiti's 9 million poor have relentlessly hunted and chopped down huge amounts of forest, leaving denuded mountain slopes that rainwater washes down unimpeded. Back in 1980, Haiti still had 25% of its forests, allowing the nation to withstand heavy rain events like 1987's Category 3 Hurricane Emily, without loss of life. But as of 2004, only 1.4% of Haiti's forests remained. Jeanne and Gordon were not even hurricanes--merely strong tropical storms--when they stuck Haiti, but the almost total lack of tree cover contributed to the devastating floods that killed thousands. And it doesn't even take a tropical storm to devastate Haiti--in May of 2004, three days of heavy rains from a tropical disturbance dumped more than 18 inches of rain in the mountains, triggering floods that killed over 2,600 people.

What can be done to reduce these human-worsened natural disasters? Education and poverty eradication are critical to improving things. In addition, reforestation efforts and promotion of alternative fuels are needed. In the past two decades, the U.S. Agency for International Development has planted some 60 million trees, while an estimated 10 to 20 million of these are cut down each year, according to the USAID director in Haiti, David Adams. If you're looking for a promising way to make a charitable donation to help Haitian flood victims, considering sending a check to the Lambi Fund of Haiti, which is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level to help avert future flood disasters.

Portlight delivers much-needed water filtration systems and medical supplies to Haiti
Portlight.org, the disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, has successfully shipped medical equipment and a water filtration unit capable of supplying the needs of 3,800 people per day to the Dominican Republic, where it will be trucked to Haiti via road. Portlight is working through the local Catholic Church, which is probably best positioned to deliver private aid donations to those in need. Paul Timmons, leader of the Portlight relief efforts, wrote this to me today:

This is important:
We are now accepting donations of medical equipment and clinical supplies...

Please forward this info as far and wide as you can. Any groups collecting or with access to this kind of stuff can ship it to our Atlanta warehouse:

Portlight Strategies, Inc.
4900 Lewis Road
Stone Mountain, GA 30083

We have good contacts on Hispaniola who are able to get this stuff where it's needed.

We are also still in need of funds!


So, please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. If you're interested in sponsoring an Honor Walk to help raise funds for the Haitians, please contact Paul Timmons of Portlight, via the Portlight.org blog. Portlight's Haitian relief efforts got a nice write-up in the Odessa American Online, a Texas newspaper, yesterday. Also, last night, Portlight booster Ron "Floodman" Myers was on the Barometer Bob Internet radio show.

For those of you more interested in helping out with the long-term rebuilding of Haiti's shattered infrastructure from the quake, I recommend a contribution to Lambi Fund of Haiti, a charity that is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level in Haiti. I've developed a great respect for the work they do in the country in the five years I've been a supporter.

I'll have a new post on Monday, when I'll be blogging from the 90th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, in Atlanta, Georgia.

Jeff Masters

Heading to haiti (Fotoguy77)
LA County Fire Department search and rescue dogs and their firefighter handlers pose for one last picture at the LA County FD warehouse facility in Pacoima, Ca before boarding buses for the trip to March Air Force Base and then on to Haiti to help in the rescue of hundreds still trapped. The dogs are specially trained to locate victims buried in rubble. They are part of the LA County Task Force 2, Urban Search and Rescue Team who, along with counterparts in Fairfax, Va, are the first called to respond to any disaster worldwide.
Heading to haiti
Waiting for the ride (Fotoguy77)
Hunter, a very highly trained Border Collie, waits for his firefighter handler so they can board a bus for the trip to March Air Force Base and then on the Haiti. Hunter is part of LA County FD Task Force 2, Urban Search and Rescue Team. This team and another in Fairfax, Va are deployed to anywhere in the world when disaster strikes...
Waiting for the ride

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697. DakeMisc
3:55 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting Floodman:
I've updated my blog with the latest news of our efforts in Haiti. You can read the update here

LST is running Portlight's social medai efforts and she found this:

BRESMA orphanage


Thanks for the Portlight update. How amazingly AWESOME that Portlight has already gotten the first round of supplies to its destination in Haiti! Looking forward to the continued updates.

Maddy in ND
Member Since: September 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
696. Skyepony (Mod)
3:19 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Still a little glitcy but seeing life from cloudsat..



A saw Windsat became "unreliable" on the 10th & still isn't fixed. May be an interesting season ahead..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39057
695. PcolaDan
2:52 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
694. transitzone
2:40 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting GrtLksQuest:
My sister forwarded this message yesterday. What is its validity?

Its consistent with a NWS Special Weather Statement this afternoon link
Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
693. aquak9
2:33 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
errr...grtlksquest? maybe you should remove mr jones' phone number form that email...and yes, it's quite valid.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26490
692. swampliliy
2:25 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
This is in online edition of St Petersburg Times:

TIA may receive Haitian evacuees
By Jessica Vander Velde, Times Staff Writer
Posted: Jan 16, 2010 03:01 PM


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA — Tampa International Airport may receive evacuees from Haiti, and airport officials have held two emergency planning meetings today to discuss how to process evacuees without identification.

They are expecting that some of the evacuees could require medical attention, and some may have friends or relatives in the United State and may need flights to reach them. Others may need a place to stay, a press release from airport spokeswoman Brenda Geoghagan stated.

In Haiti, a huge international relief effort is going on, and as U.S. military aircraft fly people out of Haiti, Florida airports are preparing to process them.

Airport officials anticipate getting only two hours notice before planes arrive.

The agencies involved in planning Tampa's response include airport operations, police, maintenance and support staff; U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Transportation Security Administration; Tampa Fire Rescue and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

Other agencies that will join include MacDill Air Force Base, air traffic control and other law enforcement agencies.




[Last modified: Jan 16, 2010 03:01 PM]
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 7 Comments: 7290
691. transitzone
2:23 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan:

Every charter jet they come in on needs fuel, not to mention talking up valuable air and tarmac space.


A friend with Angel Flight reports they are flying into the airport at Cap Haitien, offloading doctors and supplies, then popping over to Santo Domingo to refuel for the flight back to the mainland
Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
690. GrtLksQuest
2:21 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
My sister forwarded this message yesterday. What is its validity?


----- Forwarded Message ----
From: Earle Jones
To: PVForum@yahoogroups.com; Ladera Issues2 ; Ladera List List ; Ladera Seniors
Sent: Fri, January 15, 2010 3:00:45 PM
Subject: [PVForum] Storms coming!



Folks: Here is an alert that I received through the State Park system yesterday:

***
Update
Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt [this means approximately 230 miles per hour] jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state.

The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday... This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it’s all said and done.

But there’s a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically- favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in “reloading” the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it’s worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it’s not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned.
***

Here's a picture of what's coming:

http://twitpic. com/y290d/ full

Good luck!

earle
*
____________ _________ ___
Earle Jones 
501 Portola Road #8008
Portola Valley CA 94028
Home: 650-424-4362
Cell: 650-269-0035
earle.jones@ comcast.net
Member Since: November 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
689. aquak9
2:17 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
ok charlotte, thanks...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26490
688. charlottefl
2:12 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Used to live in Tampa for 4 years, Baynews9.com
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
687. aquak9
2:11 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
charlotte- where'd you get that info
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26490
686. Floodman
2:06 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan:

They are self-sufficient for the most part. But one way they are not is with fuel. Fuel cannot be flown in with them, so they ending getting it locally. From where exactly I don't know. Every generator they have uses fuel. Every charter jet they come in on needs fuel, not to mention talking up valuable air and tarmac space. Only real problem I have is with the big networks having so MANY people on the ground. I understand each one (including international) wanting so be there.


I'm with you; I can understand them wanting to be there and they serve the purpose of keeping this in front of us so that the notoriously forgetful American people are reminded of the great need, but using tarmac space that could be landing or unloading cargo planes is unconscionable...we won't talk about the fuel issue...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
685. charlottefl
2:03 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Looks like they're setting up Tampa International for unannounced flights from Hati with refugees. Squall line is getting close.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
684. Floodman
2:03 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
I've updated my blog with the latest news of our efforts in Haiti. You can read the update here

LST is running Portlight's social medai efforts and she found this:

BRESMA orphanage

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
683. theshepherd
2:03 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
675. melwerle
This all week long event has the potential to generate rainfall of 5 to 8 inches near the coast... and 15 to locally 25 inches on the
coastal mountain slopes...


Those coastal mtn slopes are notoriously unstable soils.
Beware mudslides.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10147
682. PcolaDan
1:54 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting transitzone:

Folks in-bound have been told to be completely self-sufficient. Whether they are or not is, of course, a different question

They are self-sufficient for the most part. But one way they are not is with fuel. Fuel cannot be flown in with them, so they ending getting it locally. From where exactly I don't know. Every generator they have uses fuel. Every charter jet they come in on needs fuel, not to mention talking up valuable air and tarmac space. Only real problem I have is with the big networks having so MANY people on the ground. I understand each one (including international) wanting so be there.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
681. aquak9
1:50 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
some decent winds in the Jax area this evening, barometer dropping...

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26490
680. transitzone
1:49 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting melwerle:
Ok...my dumb question for the day - does 200 knot jet stream mean that it's WAY up there???

Yes, 10km altitude plus or minus a few km
Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
679. PcolaDan
1:46 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Jet stream roars along high above earth LINK
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
678. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:46 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
677. transitzone
1:46 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting Floodman:


It's a damned shame that the Media is there in such numbers, utilizinfg resources that could really best be used elsewhere

Folks in-bound have been told to be completely self-sufficient. Whether they are or not is, of course, a different question
Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
676. Skyepony (Mod)
1:38 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39057
675. melwerle
1:28 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Ok...my dumb question for the day - does 200 knot jet stream mean that it's WAY up there??? Please do not tell me that we're going to have winds that are crazy. Our house really is a piece of junk compared to the last house we had. And does anyone want to tell me how you're supposed to sandbag because I'm not sure if we did it properly.

The first storm will arrive Monday and bring rain... possibly heavy by Monday evening. The snow level will be high Monday... around 7000
feet... so snow will be restricted to resort levels. Strong gusty winds will occur late Monday into Monday night. Subsequent storms
will impact the area Tuesday through Friday and bring more rain... heavy at times.

This all week long event has the potential to generate rainfall of 5 to 8 inches near the coast... and 15 to locally 25 inches on the
coastal mountain slopes
. Even the desert locations are likely to receive between 2 and 4 inches of rain.

The strength of the jet stream driving these storms is over 200 mph and the storms themselves will be moving rapidly onshore in quick succession.

As a result there are likely to be strong winds through much of next week. Over the coastal waters gale force or higher winds are
expected. Over land... damaging winds are likely to precede the arrival of each storm. Wind gusts between 40 and 60 mph are possible
for the coasts and valleys... while the mountains and deserts may have gusts 60 mph or higher.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
674. chawk
1:25 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Raining very hard here in Tarpon Springs. Just read where our Florida airports are getting ready for refugees from Haiti. There is little infrastructure left to support the survivors so they are going to have to leave or become victims of the certain disease outbreak to come soon. I think those of us who have a heart need to think about how we will help Haitian families after they arrive here. The best way to save lives now is to get people out of Haiti until it is inhabitiable again. By the way I'm a conservative, but I'm also an American and Americans do not sit around and watch thousands of people die.
Member Since: July 21, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 27
673. Floodman
1:25 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
where in the hell is clinton gonna stay?? fly in and out? it seems there are more , freakin , reporters, there than, aid,, thank my self, i did met classes and fewer comm classes


It's a damned shame that the Media is there in such numbers, utilizinfg resources that could really best be used elsewhere, though I will say this: they are doing a fair job, overall, making us all aware of the degree and extent of the devastation and the need for our immediate help.

SECURITY...we need the country to be as secure as possible and this is something our military and the UN's presence needs to assure. It does no good to send in aid if the people it is intended for are pushed aisde and the aid taken by those who don't need it
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
672. jeffs713
1:16 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
WHO DAT?

(sorry, had to say it)

are the pacific storms coming in pretty much following the models, or are they changing things up a bit?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
671. charlottefl
1:13 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
That squall line is starting to look pretty nasty... Dew points in the mid to upper 60's here in SWFL. It's 76 degrees outside.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
670. tornadodude
1:10 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
669. melwerle
1:08 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
ok...never in my life did I think I would have to get sand bags while I lived in "Sandy Eggo." That's taken up the majority of the day and forgive me for complaining, but it SUCKED. I am not sure if we did it correctly but I've sandbagged the back of the house b/c the water almost came in the last time it rained (our yard is a cluster-you know what) and if they think for real that we are supposed to get 8 - 20 inches of rain, I thought it would be better to be safe than sorry. I even feel guilty for complaining after watching CNN all day. My life is cake compared to what they're going through.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
668. tornadodude
1:07 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting JLPR:


O_O and here I was complaining about low 70s yesterday lol
yep, actually it gets funny when some guys just cant pretend and looks obvious they are looking XD


haha I will take some 70's :) and I can imagine LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
667. JLPR
1:06 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah I bet you are enjoying yourself :P

oh its going, just been cold and snowy, at one point we had 12 inches of snow on the ground with highs in the single digits. Makes walking to class quite miserable


O_O and here I was complaining about low 70s yesterday lol
yep, actually it gets funny when some guys just cant pretend and looks obvious they are looking XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
666. tornadodude
1:02 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting JLPR:


Everything going nice...
I just stopped by considering its been awhile since I have been here
Vacations are nice, just sitting around doing nothing most days XD

how about you?


haha yeah I bet you are enjoying yourself :P

oh its going, just been cold and snowy, at one point we had 12 inches of snow on the ground with highs in the single digits. Makes walking to class quite miserable
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
665. tornadodude
1:01 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
just got feedback from one of my professors about setting something up at Purdue for Portlight, he said he can donate, plus help me get others involved and help me get a donation booth set up
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
664. JLPR
12:59 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


now there is a stanger! how have you been? glad to see you on xD


Everything going nice...
I just stopped by considering its been awhile since I have been here
Vacations are nice, just sitting around doing nothing most days XD

how about you?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
663. RMM34667
12:58 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Rain finally reaching Tampa Bay.. and it's coming down in BUCKETS. But the wind seems to have settled. Glad we are getting this late. At least another Saturday wasn't wasted stuck in the house. And it is SO SO SOOOO nice to be out on the patio. Even my cat is happy to have the doors open!
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
662. tornadodude
12:55 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting JLPR:


You have no idea
Going to college is fun here, its so impressive its ridiculous lol XD


now there is a stanger! how have you been? glad to see you on xD
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
661. JLPR
12:54 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
howdy everyone =D
its been awhile
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
660. JLPR
12:54 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


Puerto Rico has better women ;)


You have no idea
Going to college is fun here, its so impressive its ridiculous lol XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
659. PcolaDan
12:44 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Now it's Peyton's turn (another NO connection).
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
658. tornadodude
12:42 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan:


Yea, I knew that. Don't understand changing it from meteorology to Puerto Rico though. ;)


Puerto Rico has better women ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
657. PcolaDan
12:41 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting alaina1085:
WHOOO DAAATTT!!!!!


Looked like the Saints from the early pert of the season. They can win playing like that.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
656. PcolaDan
12:40 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


Actually, I have only changed it once. :P from meteorology to PR


Yea, I knew that. Don't understand changing it from meteorology to Puerto Rico though. ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
655. Ossqss
12:31 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Howdy again, I was hoping someone would let us know how the 500 peer reviewed skeptical items were wrong or how the founder of the weather channel was wrong and it ended up my expectation was wrong :)

Saints are kickin it !
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
654. alaina1085
12:30 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
WHOOO DAAATTT!!!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
653. Chicklit
12:18 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Tectonic. Thank-you Lawrence Welk!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11406
652. tornadodude
12:17 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan:


Soooo, changing major again? LOL (actually, sounds like it could be a real interesting career to me)


Actually, I have only changed it once. :P from meteorology to PR
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
651. PcolaDan
12:14 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


Soooo, changing major again? LOL (actually, sounds like it could be a real interesting career to me)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
650. lhwhelk
12:12 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Quoting Chicklit:

As far as the teutonic plate shifts go, I would imagine atmospheric temperature change would have an effect on the earth's crust but cannot imagine it going in deeper; of note is the shallowness of this earthquake.
The TEUTONIC plate? The Germans are getting involved? Watch your spelling there! (It's TECTONIC.)
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
649. ElConando
12:12 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
Pat and co must be happy as a lark right now. Saints are certainly on a role.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
648. ElConando
12:11 AM GMT on January 17, 2010
I apologize I was wrong it seems they have funded global warming skeptics and reportedly continue to do so. I am not disagreeing with climate chance, that ExxonMobil's business practices are quite questionabl, but their production only consists of 3% of the worlds production. So if they were to disappear from the face of the earth, in the long run it wouldn't matter as far as production and emission is concerned.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
647. tornadodude
12:08 AM GMT on January 17, 2010

Purdue researchers studied Haitian fault; warned of potential for a large earthquake
January 15, 2010 Elizabeth Gardner
Print Version

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - The potential for large earthquakes in Haiti and the Dominican Republic was forecast by a model of the northeastern Caribbean created by a team of experts.

Eric Calais, a professor of geophysics at Purdue University, led the research team that is the only group utilizing advanced measurement equipment along the Enriquillo and Septentrional faults in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A numerical model of the forces building up beneath the Earth's surface suggested the potential for a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Haiti and a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in the Dominican Republic, Calais said. The results were published in a 2008 paper in Geophysical Journal International.

"We can't predict when an earthquake will happen, but we can provide likely scenarios. We spoke with government officials to warn of the potential for large earthquakes in the country and to recommend ways to prepare," Calais said. "Unfortunately, our recommendations were not implemented in part because the earthquake hit too soon. Large earthquakes don't happen very often, and that is a good thing, but the bad thing is that we tend to forget about them. This is true for developing countries and rich countries alike. Haiti faces many difficulties and it is hard for this to be addressed when there are few resources and such urgent and pressing problems as hunger in the streets and a volatile political environment."

On Tuesday (Jan. 12) Haiti was struck by a magnitude 7.0 earthquake.

The National Science Foundation-funded study used data recorded by 30 GPS antennas mounted in the ground around fault lines in the northeastern Caribbean to analyze the motion of the faults and surrounding area for five years.

The GPS equipment used can measure surface movement as small as the thickness of a fishing line.

Andrew Freed, a collaborator on the project and Purdue associate professor of earth and atmospheric sciences, said this movement represents deformation of the Earth's crust and the buildup of energy that could be released as an earthquake.

"When the Earth's crust is put under stress, it deforms," Freed said. "Like a rubber band, the crust can only take so much stress before it breaks, causing an earthquake."

The Enriquillo fault is part of the boundary between two tectonic plates - the Caribbean Plate and the North American Plate - slowly rubbing against each other as they move in opposite directions. The team determined that the tectonic plates were moving apart at a rate of 2 centimeters per year and putting tremendous strain on the fault, he said.

"These movements happen slowly, and the strain accumulates over hundreds of years," Freed said. "If the stored energy is released in a single event, as happened in Haiti, it can have a tremendous and devastating impact."

The team used the GPS data and the historical record to create a model of strain accumulation for the area. The model allowed the researchers to evaluate the potential for, and possible magnitude of, present-day earthquakes in the area, he said.

Calais is now assembling a team to go to the earthquake site to measure the aftershocks and postseismic response of the area surrounding the fault.

"There will likely be aftershocks for a number of weeks that will provide a great deal of information, and surface displacements following the earthquake tell us a lot about the mechanical properties of the Earth's crust, which help us to better understand seismic potential," Calais said. "Hopefully we can transfer this experience and knowledge to faults in other areas of the world."

Calais, who last visited Haiti a year and half ago, said the level of destruction in the city was not surprising because of poor construction and development on unstable, steep slopes.

"The hotel where I regularly stayed collapsed and there is nothing left," he said. "I'm extremely worried about the people. I've tried to reach friends and colleagues there and am eager to hear from them and learn that they are safe

Writer: Elizabeth Gardner, 765-494-2081, ekgardner@purdue.edu

Media contact: Purdue News Service, 765-494-2096
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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