The most powerful low pressure system in 140 years of record keeping swept through the Southwest U.S. yesterday, bringing deadly flooding, tornadoes, hail, hurricane force winds, and blizzard conditions. We expect to get powerful winter storms affecting the Southwest U.S. during strong El Niño events, but yesterday's storm was truly epic in its size and intensity. The storm set all-time low pressure records over roughly 10 - 15% of the U.S.--over southern Oregon, and most of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. Old records were broken by a wide margin in many locations, most notably in Los Angeles, where the old record of 29.25" set January 17, 1988, was shattered by .18" (6 mb). Bakersfield broke its record by .30" (10 mb). The record-setting low spawned an extremely intense cold front that rumbled thought the Southwest, and winds ahead of the cold front reached sustained speeds of hurricane force--74 mph--last night at Apache Junction, 40 miles east of Phoenix. Wind gusts as high as 94 mph were recorded in Ajo, Arizona, and a Personal Weather Station in Summerhaven (on top of Mt. Lemmon next to Tucson) recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 86 mph, before the power failed. Prescott recorded sustained winds at 52 mph, gusting to 67 as the cold front passed, and high winds plunged visibility to zero in blowing dust on I-10 connecting Phoenix and Tucson. The storm spawned one possible tornado in Arizona, which touched down at 8:32 pm MST in Phoenix near Desert Ridge Mall. No damage or injuries were reported. If verified, it would be only the 7th January tornado in Arizona since record keeping began in 1950.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from the Phoenix Doppler radar at the time of the Phoenix tornado. The tornado touched down under the circle with a "+" inside it. The Doppler velocity image did not show any rotation to the clouds in the vicinity.
Some of the all-time low pressure records set in yesterday's storm:
Los Angeles, CA: 29.07", Old Record: 29.25", January 17, 1988
Eureka, CA: 28.90", Old Record: 28.91", February 1891
San Diego, CA: 29.15", Old Record, 29.37", March 3, 1983
Fresno, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.10", January 27, 1916
Bakersfield, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.24", February 3, 1998
Salt Lake City, UT: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00" April 2002
Reno, NV: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00", January 27, 1916
Las Vegas, NV: 29.03" Old Record: 29.17", December 1949
Phoenix, AZ: 29.22", Old Record: 29.32", May 18, 1902
Flagstaff, AZ: 29.13", Old Record: 29.15", February 7, 1937
Yuma, AZ: 29.15", Old Record: 29.37", September 12, 1927
Three tornadoes in California
Three tornadoes were reported in California yesterday. A small EF0 twister hit the east side of Ventura, leaving a 1.5 mile damage path. Another tornado hit Santa Barbara, downing trees and power poles. The most damaging California tornado yesterday touched down just west of Blythe, on the Arizona-California border, at 4:31 pm MST. The twister crossed I-10, blowing three semi trucks over, ripping the roofs off houses, and downing power lines. I-10 was closed for several hours to clear the debris and toppled trucks.
Two tornadoes also hit Southern California on Tuesday. A sheriff's deputy spotted a possible tornado in Goleta that caused some roof damage, and another tornado hit Huntington Beach, damaging boats and buildings and flipping cars.
If all five tornadoes are confirmed as genuine by the National Weather Service, it will tie the record of most January California tornadoes. The all-time record for most California tornadoes in a single day is seven, set on April 1, 1996, and November 9, 1982.
Figure 2. Radar reflectivity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado.
Figure 3. Storm-relative radial velocity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado. The area of yellow and orange colors, lying right next to a region of blues and greens just west of Santa Barbara shows that the winds in that region were moving towards and away from the radar in a very tight area, signifying the presence of a rotating thunderstorm and possible tornado.
The storm will continue to bring heavy rain and snow to many portions the Southwest today, then wind down on Saturday. A new storm is expected to move ashore over Northern California on Sunday night, but this storm will not be as intense. Another storm is also possible next Friday, January 29, but it appears that a renewed battering by a long succession of storms like we had this week will not occur next week.
Selected storm total snowfalls (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 3.2 NNW 36.5
SUNRISE MOUNTAIN 29.0
FOREST LAKES 26.0
HEBER 21.0
PINETOP/LAKESIDE 4 ESE 20.4
ALPINE 20.0
CLAY SPRINGS 20.0
CLINTS WELL 19.0
KACHINA VILLAGE 18.6
WILLIAMS 16.5
PRESCOTT 7.0
...CALIFORNIA...
CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 73.6
SODA SPRINGS 63.0
SUGAR BOWL 61.0
LWR RELIEF VALLEY 50.6
KIRKWOOD 48.0
SQUAW VALLEY 47.0
SIERRA AT TAHOE 38.0
BIG BEAR CITY 37.0
...COLORADO...
DURANGO 24.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9 NW 24.0
SILVERTON 24.0
WOLF CREEK PASS 1 SSE 24.0
ABAJO 19.0
TELLURIDE 15.0
COAL BANK PASS 14.5
RED MTN 12.3
CREEDE 10 SW 12.0
SOUTH FORK 4 SW 12.0
MOLAS PASS 10.0
...NEW MEXICO...
JEMEZ SPRINGS 14.0
CHAMA 12.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 10.5
AZTEC 8.0
BLUEWATER LAKE 11 WSW 8.0
BONITO LAKE 5 SW 8.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 8.0
LUNA 8.0
KIRTLAND 2 ESE 6.0
MOGOLLON 6 ESE 6.0
RAMAH 6.0
BLOOMFIELD 3 SW 5.5
LOS ALAMOS 5.5
...NEVADA...
YUCCA FLAT 20.0
BERRY CREEK 19.0
BIG CREEK SUMMIT 16.0
DRAW CREEK 13.0
POLE CREEK R.S. 13.0
MT. POTOSI 12.0
ELY 8.3
WARD MOUNTAIN 8.0
CHARLESTON 6.0
...UTAH...
BRIGHTON CREST 35.0
ALTA/COLLINS 33.5
DEER VALLEY DALY WEST 28.0
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 28.0
BIG COTTONWOOD SPRUCES 19.0
SOLITUDE 17.5
SNOWBIRD 13.5
Selected storm total precipitation (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
DAVIS-MONTHAN AFB/TUCSON 10.23
BLACK CANYON CITY 10 N 6.57
CROWN KING 6.50
SURPRISE 1 ESE 5.58
SUN CITY WEST 2 NNE 4.78
COTTONWOOD 1 WSW 4.63
SCOTTSDALE 5.5 NNW 4.21
NEW RIVER 5 ESE 4.05
WITTMAN 5 SW 4.05
PAYSON 4.01
PINE 1 SW 4.00
SIERRA VISTA 3.83
LUKE AFB/PHOENIX 3.58
CASTLE HOT SPRINGS 3.55
FLAGSTAFF PULLIAM AP 3.41
CLIFTON 2.96
WINSLOW 2.84
GILBERT 4 NW 2.74
CHANDLER 4 WNW 2.72
YUMA MCAF 2.43
PRESCOTT/ERNEST A LOVE FIELD AP 2.28
PHOENIX AIRPORT 2.21
TUCSON AIRPORT 0.52
...CALIFORNIA...
LOS GATOS 4 SW 14.70
CAZADERO 13.46
LYTLE CREEK 13.39
MINING RIDGE 13.14
PETROLIA 7 SE 12.17
BARTLETT SPRINGS 11.23
LAKE ARROWHEAD 11.23
ALTADENA 1 ESE 11.14
CLOVERDALE 1 S 10.30
CRESTLINE 10.27
DEVORE 9.58
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 8.04
UKIAH MUNI ARPT 7.58
NEWHALL 7.08
SANTA ROSA/SONOMA CO ARPT 6.55
SAN LUIS OBISPO ARPT 5.37
SAN DIEGO/MONTGOMERY FIELD 4.32
SAN FRANCISCO INTL ARPT 4.30
LOS ANGELES-USC 3.89
PALM SPRINGS RGNL ARPT 3.75
SACRAMENTO METRO ARPT 3.65
SAN JOSE INTL ARPT 3.19
...NEVADA...
NORTH LAS VEGAS AIRPORT 1.50
HENDERSON AIRPORT 1.17
MERCURY/DESERT ROCK ARPT 1.06
...OREGON...
AGNESS 6.4 NE 3.90
PORT ORFORD 5.0 E 3.52
BROOKINGS 4.2 ENE 2.83
BANDON 11.4 S 2.67
ASTORIA 1.45
...WASHINGTON...
HOQUIAM/BOWERMAN AIRPORT 2.01
Tornadoes, severe weather in the South
Severe weather associated with a separate storm brought damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes to portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida last night. Two tornadoes were reported, one in Tennessee, and one in Alabama, near Huntsville. The Huntsville tornado injured approximately six people, and cut power to 10,000 people. The storm responsible for the severe weather has moved out to sea, and no further severe weather is expected today. A slight chance of severe weather is expected Saturday over Arkansas and Mississippi, and there is also a severe weather threat for Georgia and surrounding states on Sunday.
Figure 4. Last night's Huntsville, Alabama tornado was captured by wunderphotographer Southampton.
Portlight's Paul Timmons to appear on NBC and CNN
Portlight.org, the disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, has successfully shipped medical equipment and a water filtration unit capable of supplying the needs of 3,500 people per day to the Dominican Republic. The relief supplies were trucked to Haiti via road, and have made it to the earthquake zone. The supplies have been targeted to go to those with disabilities, or to those who are living in areas where the main aid efforts have been inadequate. Portlight is working through the local Catholic Church, which is probably best positioned to deliver private aid donations to those in need. Paul Timmons, leader of the Portlight relief efforts, is scheduled to appear on NBC news later today, and on CNN news tomorrow, to discuss Portlight's efforts.
Figure 5. Walkers and medical supplies for Haiti getting ready to ship from the Portlight warehouse in Atlanta.
Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. The Reeve Foundation, founded by Christopher and Dana Reeve has awarded Portlight Strategies a $10,000 Quality of of Life grant to assist in the relief efforts in Haiti. This is very big and will allow Portlight to pursue more aggressive relief efforts over the course of the next few weeks.
For those of you more interested in helping out with the long-term rebuilding of Haiti's shattered infrastructure from the quake, I recommend a contribution to Lambi Fund of Haiti, a charity that is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level in Haiti. I've developed a great respect for the work they do in the country in the five years I've been a supporter.
Next post
My next post will be Monday.
Jeff Masters
Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California (
annestahl)
Cops stand by closed road.
Southern California Snow (
gemd)
A Pacific storm (usually warm) came and dropped snow in Southern California in area which rarely see snow. This was not even an "insider slider" (lingo for a northern, non-Pacific cold jet stream). Snow days for schools are rampant and there are many accidents on the roadways. Our snow is not the typical fluff, but very wet and slick.
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm (
kempix)
Heavy Snowstorm came in last night with almost a foot of snow in the mountains of Prescott.
the ocean in Santa Barbara takes no prisoners
Amazing bolt of lightning strikes the Pacific Ocean in Manhattan Beach, CA.
I took a drive this morning to document some of this amazing weather we're having in Arizona. My path took me over to the Superstition Mountains east of Phoenix and I beheld some sights that I don't expect to see again. (HDR)
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 — Blog Index
UN abandons climate change deadline
By Fiona Harvey in London and Anna Fifield in Washington
Published: January 20 2010 20:25 | Last updated: January 20 2010 20:25
The timetable to reach a global deal to tackle climate change lay in tatters on Wednesday after the United Nations waived the first deadline of the process laid out at last month’s fractious Copenhagen summit.
Nations agreed then to declare their emissions reduction targets by the end of this month. Developed countries would state their intended cuts by 2020: developing countries would outline how they would curb emissions growth.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Scientists in glacier claim controversy - Jan-20In depth: Climate change - Jan-21Copenhagen’s true effect yet to be seen - Jan-17World weather shifts off balance - Jan-12Indian PM calls for fairness in climate fight - Jan-05Outlay on green tech set to grow - Jan-07But Yvo de Boer, the UN’s senior climate change official, admitted the deadline had in effect been shelved.
“By [the end of] January, countries will have the opportunity to . . . indicate if they want to be associated with the accord,” he said. “[Governments could] indicate by the deadline, or they can also indicate later.”
“You could describe it as a soft deadline,” Mr de Boer said. “There is nothing deadly about it. If [countries] fail to meet it, they can still associate with the Copenhagen accord after.”
UN carbon trading scheme
FT interactive graphic: Explore the technologies adopted and various developing nations’ level of participation
Countries pushing for a new legally binding treaty on climate change will be disappointed, as The waiving of the deadline sets a bad precedent for efforts to finalise a deal this year. The next scheduled meeting is not until late May, in Germany, with another in late November, in Mexico but many officials say more will be needed.
India, China, Brazil and South Africa, which meet this weekend, are likely to insist on deep cuts from developed nations but offer few concessions of their own.
The result of Tuesday’s Massachusetts senatorial election, which took away Barack Obama’s super-majority in the Senate, is likely to push climate change further down the US agenda. It was the latest in a series of setbacks that have caused efforts to push a cap-and-trade bill through the Senate to grind to a halt, making it harder for the White House to participate meaningfully in global climate negotiations.
Instead, the administration has been pressing ahead with steps to limit the US’s carbon emissions through regulation. The Environmental Protection Agency has unveiled new draft rules that would sharply tighten regulations on smog-building pollutants, or ground-level ozone, and has cracked down on greenhouse gas emissions by ruling that carbon dioxide and five other gases pose a danger to health.
They will ram it thru one way or another.
Ideaology Hmm.
Is there a place to discuss Gaia?
all so the power went out this AM and the power went out a round 5pm so i been with out power for some time now the olny way i talking to you right now is by back up power on my laptop
hey FL give me a few of them 70s weather Please oh 80s would be nic
After hottest decade in history, senators attempt to outlaw science of global warming.
NYT: Warmest decade, Senators bar EPAs scientists announce that the 2000s were the hottest decade in recorded history, U.S. senators are working to outlaw the reality of global warming. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration reported yesterday that 2009 is %u201Ctied with a cluster of other years %u2014 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007 %u2014 as the second warmest year since recordkeeping began,%u201D after 2005, the hottest year in history. Meanwhile, thirty-nine senators introduced a resolution to reverse the finding that global warming pollution is a threat to public health and welfare:
Ms. [Lisa] Murkowski (R-AK), joined by 35 Republicans and three conservative Democrats, proposed to use the Congressional Review Act to strip the agency of the power to limit emissions of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. The Supreme Court gave the agency legal authority to regulate such emissions in a landmark 2007 ruling.
After years of suppression and interference by the George W. Bush White House, the Environmental Protection Agency finally found last month that %u201Cgreenhouse gases taken in combination endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations.%u201D The Democrats co-sponsoring Senate Joint Resolution 26 to overturn the endangerment finding are Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Ben Nelson (D-NE), and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR).
Amen! The common concept of "theory" is so different from the scientific concept of "theory" that we may as well be speaking in different languages.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y8iy7Rw1w0
Now:108.1°F rising
Updated at 15:20 EDT
Comment removed. See Comment 411.
This is just too cool to not have it posted here for people to see. So, without your permission. (Hope you don't mind.)
edit: LOL Okay, a fried Aussie and I posted at the same time.
That's just crazy!!
Looks like summer in Texas ;-)
Homebush, Sydney, Australia
108.1F at 15:20 EDT
Now: 84.0F falling
Updated at 15:43 EDT
24.1F drop in 23mins.
Now
80.6°F falling
Updated at 15:50 EDT
Okay, what causes a drop like that. Not a cloud in the sky, is there?
NSW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Locally Damaging Winds
For people in the
Illawarra, Metropolitan Districts
Issued at 2:00 pm on Saturday 23 January 2010
Synoptic Situation: 12:00 noon EDT Saturday
A cold vigorous cold front is moving northwards along the southern NSW coast,
bringing strong to gale force winds along the southern coast.
Winds gusts in excess of 90 km/h can be expected near and behind the front along
the coastal fringe.
Kiama has reported a gust of 102 km/hr. (Kiama is about 50km south of Sydney)
I admit to knowing next to nothing about Australian weather, but isn't it kind of early for a strong cold front like that?
Nope, they just cool the place down by about 10C then it warms up again.
Now@ Homebush, Sydney, Australia
78.3F falling
Wind: SSE 23kt
Wind Gusts: 36kt
Updated at 16:10 EDT
Today's high was 108.1F, in 40mins the temp has dropped 29.9F.
Thanks. Seemed extreme to me, but literally a whole different world there.
Shut eye for me. ttfn
Getting a lot of pop up storms here due to the rapid cooling of the air, as seen on RADAR
Press Release, Saturday January 23, 2010 - 16:27 EDT
Sydney just experienced it's hottest day in four years, topping at a whopping 41C(105.8F) at Observatory Hill, a full 15C(59F) above average. This also happened to be the second hottest January day since 1961.
The day started unusually, with air conditioners and ceiling fans already tired from working full-throttle overnight. Sydney Airport had an overnight minimum of just 26C(78.8F), it's sweatiest on record.
Meteorologist for weatherzone.com.au Sam Terry explained why such extreme heat was happening.
"Due to a lack of cloud cover, a region of heat has been building over Australia's interior. Most of the time this just stays put, but a recent trough has forced all this hot air over the NSW coast, leading to the conditions we saw today."
By 9am, Richmond had already hit 35C(95F) degrees and the city 32C(89.6F), despite an increase in cloud cover, but the heat didn't stop there.
Every official observation site across the Sydney Basin exceed 40C(104F). Fire Danger was Severe to Extreme, in some cases the highest in two-and-a-half years.
As residents city-wide looked to the heavens in supplication, sweet relief manifested itself in the form of a gusty southerly change.
"The change has been moving quickly along the NSW coast since this morning," Terry said. "It reached Sydney just after 3pm, with gusts in excess of 90 km/h(55miles/h), enough to cause damage to infrastructure.
"Thankfully, the change has dropped temperatures in excess of 10C(50F), quite large really. The cooler temperature will remain into tomorrow, as winds stay onshore."
- Weatherzone
Updated at 17:01 EDT
Today's high was 108.1F at 15:30 EDT
Outstanding shots and processing indeed, very well done! The HDR notation means High Dynamic Range, a processing technique combining multiple different exposures of the same shot into a single image, usually used to bring out details in the shadows, like here.
Now
70.9°F rising
Updated at 17:20 EDT
Looks like what the road leading to hell would look like.
Just reading your other posts as well as this one. What is the humidity when you have a rapid temperature drop like you have just had? I would assume it would be low.
Humidity started off at about 10% most of today, Currently 73%. Once the cold change came through the humidity rapidly rose. The temp is now half what it was at 15:30 EDT 21C(69.8F) Today's max temp was 42.5C(108.1F).
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:48pm EST on Saturday the 23rd of January 2010
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Flattery to
Innisfail.
A Cyclone WATCH has is now current for coastal areas from Coen to Cape Flattery
and Innisfail to Lucinda.
At 7:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 1 was estimated to be
335 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 400 kilometres north northeast of
Townsville moving west at 18 kilometres per hour while intensifying.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA, CATEGORY 1, is currently over the northwest Coral Sea and
is moving towards the coast while intensifying.
Gale force winds and heavy rainfall are expected to develop about the coast
between Cape Flattery and Innisfail on Sunday afternoon.
People between Cape Flattery and Innisfail should take precautions and listen
to the next Advice at 11pm Saturday. If you are unsure about precautions to be
taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.
People between Coen to Cape Flattery and Innisfail to Lucinda should consider
what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are
unsure about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 148.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Saturday 23 January.
________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0655 UTC 23/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Olga
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 149.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 23/1800: 15.9S 147.0E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 980
+24: 24/0600: 16.1S 145.8E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 983
+36: 24/1800: 16.6S 143.8E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 996
+48: 25/0600: 17.2S 142.0E: 120 [220]: 025 [045]: 998
+60: 25/1800: 17.1S 140.6E: 140 [260]: 025 [045]: 997
+72: 26/0600: 17.2S 139.6E: 160 [295]: 025 [045]: 997
REMARKS:
T3.0 chiefly based on MET. Convection has persisted through the day and the low
level circulation is now under this deep convection. Shear is expected to
decrease over the next 36 hours as the system moves west.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
* From: AAP
* January 23, 2010 7:10PM
RESIDENTS in far north Queensland have been warned they risk being left short of critical supplies unless they start preparing for tropical cyclone Olga.
People have been advised to check their emergency kits as the category one cyclone - which sat about 370km east of Cairns at 4pm (AEST) on Saturday - intensifies and moves towards the coast.
A cyclone watch was current from Coen to Cape Flattery and Innisfail to Lucinda on late Saturday afternoon.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) had issued flood warnings for the coastal areas between Cooktown and Cardwell.
Gale force winds and heavy rainfall were expected to develop along the coast between Cape Flattery and Innisfail on Sunday afternoon.
Warren Bridson, of Emergency Management Queensland, said residents needed to take the warnings seriously and adequately prepare for the cyclone, which formed on Friday night in the Coral Sea.
"We have found that in previous events - like last year's Ingham floods - people had two days' warning but still didn't stock up on critical supplies such as medication, food and water and baby supplies,'' Mr Bridson said.
"They didn't appreciate how isolated they would become, even though they lived in or close to town.
"We need people to understand that when you are isolated by a flood, you may not be able to get to the shops for a number of days.''
Mr Bridson also warned of the dangers of swollen creeks and flooded drains and roads.
Every year emergency services received dozens of calls for assistance from people who had ignored road closures and become stranded in flood waters, he said.
"This is extremely dangerous behaviour,'' Mr Bridson said.
"Only last year two lives were tragically lost when a vehicle was driven into flood waters and washed away near Tully.
"Please obey all traffic signs and road closures and do not attempt to cross flooded roads, even if this means having to stay at home.''
If Olga continues on its current path it could hit the coast off Cairns on Monday morning, a BoM chart predicts.
Homebush Observations
Saturday January 23, 2010
Morning everyone. Morning bro, that's if your still awake. LOL. I think that time stamp was from like 3:45AM. That's if I did my GMT time translation right.
This is so sick.
The state that stands to suffer the most from human-caused global warming has elected leaders who want to stop efforts to avoid its inundation (see “Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6 feet by 2100“). That’s true of the Governor and presidential hopeful (see “Jindal Tries to Block Climate Change Regulation“). It’s true of GOP Sen. Vitter who tried to block climate change response centers. We’ve known for a while that Sen. Landrieu wants to jettison cap-and-trade. Now we know she is joining Sen. Lisa Dirty Air Murkowski (R-AK) in her campaign to prevent Clean Air Act regulation of global warming pollution , as Brad Johnson reports in this Wonk Room excerpt:
Yesterday, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has announced that she is the Murky Dem supporting the lobbyist-directed effort to prevent action by President Obama to slow global warming. Because she “believes the Clean Air Act is not meant to be applied to carbon dioxide emissions,” Landrieu is collaborating to craft what environmentalists are calling the Dirty Air Act:
“I am considering that right now,” Landrieu said when asked whether she backed Murkowski’s plan. “I have been working with her on it.”
Full Article
Indeed.
The IPCC is not infallible (shock!)
Like all human endeavours, the IPCC is not perfect. Despite the enormous efforts devoted to producing its reports with the multiple levels of peer review, some errors will sneak through. Most of these will be minor and inconsequential, but sometimes they might be more substantive. As many people are aware (and as John Nieslen-Gammon outlined in a post last month and Rick Piltz goes over today), there is a statement in the second volume of the IPCC (WG2), concerning the rate at which Himalayan glaciers are receding that is not correct and not properly referenced.
The statement, in a chapter on climate impacts in Asia, was that the likelihood of the Himalayan glaciers %u201Cdisappearing by the year 2035%u2033 was %u201Cvery high%u201D if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate (WG 2, Ch. 10, p493), and was referenced to a World Wildlife Fund 2005 report. Examining the drafts and comments (available here), indicates that the statement was barely commented in the reviews, and that the WWF (2005) reference seems to have been a last minute addition (it does not appear in the First- or Second- Order Drafts). This claim did not make it into the summary for policy makers, nor the overall synthesis report, and so cannot be described as a %u2018central claim%u2019 of the IPCC. However, the statement has had some press attention since the report particularly in the Indian press, at least according to Google News, even though it was not familiar to us before last month.
It is therefore obvious that this error should be corrected (via some kind of corrigendum to the WG2 report perhaps), but it is important to realise that this doesn%u2019t mean that Himalayan glaciers are doing just fine. They aren%u2019t, and there may be serious consequences for water resources as the retreat continues. See also this review paper (Ren et al, 2006) on a subset of these glaciers.
East Rongbuk glacier just below Mt. Everest has lost 3-400 ft of ice in this area since 1921.
More generally, peer-review works to make the IPCC reports credible because many different eyes with different perspectives and knowledge look over the same text. This tends to make the resulting product reflect more than just the opinion of a single author. In this case, it appears that not enough people with relevant experience saw this text, or if they saw it, did not comment publicly. This might be related to the fact that this text was in the Working Group 2 report on impacts, which does not get the same amount of attention from the physical science community than does the higher profile WG 1 report (which is what people associated with RC generally look at). In WG1, the statements about continued glacier retreat are much more general and the rules on citation of non-peer reviewed literature was much more closely adhered to. However, in general, the science of climate impacts is less clear than the physical basis for climate change, and the literature is thinner, so there is necessarily more ambiguity in WG 2 statements.
In future reports (and the organisation for AR5 in 2013 is now underway), extra efforts will be needed to make sure that the links between WG1 and the other two reports are stronger, and that the physical science community should be encouraged to be more active in the other groups.
In summary, the measure of an organisation is not determined by the mere existence of errors, but in how it deals with them when they crop up. The current discussion about Himalayan glaciers is therefore a good opportunity for the IPCC to further improve their procedures and think more about what the IPCC should be doing in the times between the main reports.
Update: This backgrounder presented by Karkel et al AGU this December is the best summary of the current state of the Himalayas and the various sources of misinformation that are floating around. It covers this issue, the Raina report and the recent Lau et al paper.
realclimate
That and possibly question the legality of and/or how appropriate is EPA regulation of such a non-toxic gas. I don't think anyone's intent was for the EPA to regulate gases that have no ill health effects.
(My personal opinion is that we could be doing so much more for the environment and pollution control if we weren't so tunnel-visioned on this CO2 thing. Get behind something with a clear relationship of cause and effect and I'll be all for it.)
Exactly.
There are thousands of accidents in the USA annualy dueto wrong handling of generators or in garages. Due to the toxity of Co-2. I advice you not to test this out. Co-2 kills pretty fast if you lack air supply. And the EPA has filled Co-2 as a pollution.
Oh and btw your "claim" here again is absolutly not scientific.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:59pm EST on Saturday the 23rd of January 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island areas from Cape Melville
to Cardwell.
The Cyclone WATCH from Coen to Cape Melville and Cardwell to Lucinda has been
CANCELLED.
At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 2 was estimated to be
250 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 365 kilometres north northeast of
Townsville, and was moving west at 21 kilometres per hour.
GALES are expected to develop about the coast between Cape Melville and Cardwell
on Sunday.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are likely to develop about the coast between Cape Tribulation
and Innisfail on Sunday afternoon as the cyclone centre approaches.
Very heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected to develop about the
North Tropical Coast during Sunday.
As the cyclone crosses the coast, abnormally high tides are expected between
Cape Tribulation and Innisfail, but the sea level should not exceed the highest
tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.
People between Cape Melville and Cardwell should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 148.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 21 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 983 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Sunday 24 January.
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