Six more weeks of winter!
Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. From the official web site of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, groundhog.org:
Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!
On Gobbler's Knob on this fabulous Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2010
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
Awoke to the call of President Bill Cooper
And greeted his handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths
After casting a joyful eye toward thousands of his faithful followers,
And a bright sky above me
Showed my shadow beside me.
Six more weeks of winter it will be.
How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.
What the models say
The latest long-range runs of the ECMWF and GFS models show the jet stream following a typical El Niño winter configuration. A northern branch dipping down over the Northeast U.S. will bring seasonably cold temperatures to the eastern half of the country, with a compensating ridge of high pressure bringing milder temperatures to the Northwest U.S. (and the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, Canada). A second branch of the jet stream will be active across Southern California, Texas, and the Southeast U.S., bringing cooler and rainier weather than average. There are no indications that the jet stream will get "stuck" in a high-amplitude pattern that will bring long-lived record cold to any portion of the country, such as occurred over Florida in early January. At this point, I don't see any reason to disagree with Punxsutawney Phil's fearless forecast of a normal six more weeks of winter.
Figure 1. Departure of winter temperature from average for February. This is a very typical pattern for an El Niño winter. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Next post
My next post will be Wednesday, when I plan to talk about the status of this year's El Niño.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index
love it! i'm gonna spend 45 seconds working out my own Big Bird story tonight... i'll have a new blog up tomorrow, comments needed!
for on-topic discussion: i am also looking forward to winter wrapping up in 6 weeks, ahead of MN schedule..
Great, let me see if I can find a cheap boat or a big inflatable raft on Craig's list.
The GFS models are indicating Dallas-Ft Worth, TX may see snow next Mo or Tu, 2/8-9. The NWS DFW office mentioned that this morning in the area forecast discussion. The ECMWF shows a rain event and GFS shows a snowstorm.
The preliminary climate figures for 1-10 for the DFW, TX area showed we were 0.2F above normal, with temps ranging from a low of 13 to a high of 76. God Texas weather is NEVER boring!
In Houston, our motto from late november to late february is "Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes, it will change."
Yes that is a famous Texas expression and is used quite a bit in Western NY state, near Buffalo, Rochester to near Watertown, NY.
In Buffalo, NY during a lake-effect snow event, you can drive 10 miles and go from sunny and 25F, into a raging snowstorm.
How come there is no ground hog day in August, to say if there is going to be or not, 6 weeks more of summer?
That 60-76F/15-24C spell we had for about 2 weeks spoiled me rotten. We hit 79F/26C one day last month, at the Arlington, TX Municipal AP, an official reading
They say the same thing in Melbourne :-)
I usually call this time of year "Fring"...a freaky fall spring transitional hybrid season...
That is cool, I never quite heard put quite like that. I just wanna fast forward to Apr 1, so it will be near 70F during the average afternoon.
cloudy morning mild sees no shadow stays out of hole starts to look around for some food wakes up from sleep winter is over
kinda a funny folk tale but been around for generations and may possibly be just a tricky way to get people out for a mid winter gathering and money spending event during the dead of winter
Can i put my summer on hold, i'm loving it. Oh, wait, if i did that, it would be winter on hold there. oh well, thems the breaks. hehe
If you do that, I need to take regular trips to the Rio Grande Valley here in TX, where mid winter temps range from 51/70F or 10/21C..
After weeks of little to no rain Sydney and surrounds have finally got the splash so anticipated, with more to come, according to weathezone.com.au.
Some of heaviest falls came last night just after the average child's bed-time. The city recorded 7 millimetres in less than an hour, not enough to be classified as flash flooding, but still good enough. The total to 9am was 23 millimetres, the wettest in two months.
Lucas Heights received 29 millimetres to 9am this morning, the best since October of last year.
North Rocks picked up 25 millimetres, the wettest day since the end of December.
The dams have fared reasonably okay as well. An average of 20 millimetres fell over the Warragamba, which is sitting at 51 percent capacity. Whilst this is clearly not enough to bring us back to a "full tank" it is still very welcome.
Sydney will continue to see frequent showers today, although they'll ease a little during the afternoon. Showers should continue over the weekend as well, with some thunder thrown into the mix.
- Weatherzone
There is still rain falling in parts of outback Queensland this morning as the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Olga moves into South Australia and weakens.
Remote cattle stations in the state's far south-west have recorded some of their biggest rainfall in decades.
There has been steady falls overnight in the state's Channel country.
In Queensland's central-west, Blackall-Tambo Mayor Jan Ross says spirits have been boosted and community morale is as high as it has been in decades.
"The weight of drought will be lifted off their shoulders - we were feeding right up until Christmas," she said.
"The pressure of that and the cost of it is enormous.
"The cost to your health and the bank balance is relieved by this wonderful wonderful rain."
Catherine Rothwell, from Naryilco Station in south-west Queensland, says they have had 100 millimetres in the last four days.
"This sort of rain I can't really remember since I was a little girl - nice, steady, soaking rain," she said.
"It'll be really good for the country because it hasn't actually just poured down and rushed - it'll soak right right in and grow some really good feed - it'll just be a really nice change to red dirt."
In central Queensland, some roads are blocked and some residents are receiving food drops as floodwaters continue to isolate some parts of the Bundaberg region.
Police are appealing for motorists to take care as floodwaters have cut the road between Bundaberg and Agnes Water.
The Essendean Bridge at Rosedale is about a metre under water from the flooded Baffle Creek.
The State Emergency Service (SES) has delivered supplies to about 15 residents on Fingerboard Road, near Miriam Vale who are isolated by floodwaters.
Police are urging residents to stay away from swollen waterways because the conditions can change quickly.
The weather bureau says this week's rain in central Queensland should not cause major flooding in the Fitzroy River.
A flood warning is current for the Connors, Lower Isaac and Dawson Rivers and Baffle Creek.
Forecaster Mike Marrinan says there will be some rises in the Fitzroy River but it should remain below flood levels.
"We do have major flooding occurring along parts of the Fitzroy or tributaries of the Fitzroy, along the Commet River from Rolleston to the Lake and moderate to minor flooding occurring also in the Upper Dawson River, Taroom area," he said.
"We've had moderate flooding which has peaked in the Connors River and the Pink Lagoon area, moderate flooding continues in the lower Isaacs River."
Meanwhile, AgForce president John Cotter says the drenching rain will have far-reaching benefits for the state's primary producers.
The system has brought drought-breaking falls to a number of areas and filled creeks, dams and weirs.
Queensland's largest dam is overflowing.
Run-off from heavy falls across north Queensland have boosted the Burdekin Falls Dam, south of Townsville.
Sunwater estimates an extra 125,000 megalitres of water will run into the dam today.
Mr Cotter says there will be benefits right across the rural sector and the Queensland Government also has reason to celebrate.
"When you have a $13 billion contribution to the state economy - if we see a 5 or 10 per cent increase in production that is really cream on the top," he said.
"Certainly the State Government will be very pleased to see it because people will be out there looking to develop their businesses and that all flows back to the jobs the regional communities and the general economy."
"We are looking at one of the best breaks in a season we have seen in over a decade.
"Central Queensland for instance has got the potential for a good sorghum crop to be planted now.
"The beef industry will see better weights in cattle.
"The transport sector gets more work and use and some of the investment in machinery and livestock facilities will reap the benefits."
- Reporting by Chrissy Arthur, Kallee Buchanan, Maria Hatzakis, Penny Timms and Francis Tapim
- ABC
We had 3.40"/86.36mm of rain in 36 hours here in Arlington, TX last Th and Fr, with another 1-2"/25-51mm coming tomorrow into Th.
Well, when you have 10.5 months of summer every year, it is hard to squeeze Fall, Winter, and Spring into only about 45 days.
Well here in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX summer starts May 15 and ends around Oct 10 each year. We are fortunate, we have a cooler climate than NOLA, about 4F cooler.
"THE BIG CHALLENGE AND QUESTION REMAINS. HOW MUCH RAIN WILL LOCAL
GAUGES COLLECT? THE VARIOUS SPECTRAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH IN A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE LOW PASSAGES...DIFFER ON RAIN
AMOUNTS. THE 02.12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WRINGS OUT STORM TOTAL RAINS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 ENDING FRIDAY AT 6 PM. THE
EURO SUGGESTS 2 TO 3 INCHES TO FALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WHILE THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (SREF) AND CANADIAN
GEM GUIDANCE CALL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL EPISODE BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/JET DYNAMICS...MESOSCALE CONTRIBUTIONS TO POOLING
AND LIFTING OF HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE APPROACHING LOW...AND
TRAINING OF CELLS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
AREAS OBSERVING AMOUNTS DOUBLED WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY
CALLS FOR. WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN EVENTS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST COUPLE
MONTHS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RUNOFF AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOWER LYING AREAS...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS
AND UNDERPASSES. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING RIVER RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL
RAIN AMOUNTS AS POTENTIAL EXISTS OF ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING. STAY
TUNED."
Hey, I left you a message on the "other" blog, with a full apology. See how you conservatives are, all ready to pounce on an innocent person. LOL Go back and read it, it was funny.
But you will have to drive yourself from the airport.
We are the 2nd driest continent on earth, when we get rain, we love it.
dude, that's my life story!!!
;)
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST TUE 02 FEBRUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-064
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
FLIGHT ONE
A. A66/ DROP 7/ 05/0000Z
B. CLOCKWISE
FLIGHT TWO
A. A65/ DROP 6/ 05/1200Z
B. CLOCKWISE
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. P21/ 40.0N 135.0W / 04/1200Z
B. AFXXX 15WSC TRACK21
C. 04/0600Z
D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 04/1800Z
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. TRACK P15/ 41.0N 162.0W/ 05/1200Z
B. POSSIBLE WC-130 TRACK ONLY.
JWP
We know, but love you anyway!! See my apology I left for you this morning?
Could you post the link to those maps please
not one person commented on my Big Bird story.....
:(
I would think they would have a positive effect of flushing out a lot of built up debris.
But Grothar, I wrote a response, in German, wothout a net and I thought I'd done rather well...I was hoping you'd comment on that!
Will try to get pics for everyone.
Hey Flood!
LOl what is going on with all this german stuff here, i apparently missed it ;)
The barman looks at him and says, "But you're a duck".
"I see your eyes are working", replies the duck.
"And you talk!" exclaims the barman.
"I see your ears are working", says the duck,
"Now can I have my beer and my sandwich please?"
"Certainly", says the barman, "sorry about that, it's just we
don't get many ducks in this pub. What are you doing round this way?".
"I'm working on the building site across the road", explains the duck.
Then the duck drinks his beer, eats his sandwich and leaves.
This continues for 2 weeks. Then one day the circus comes to
town.The Ringleader of the circus comes into the pub and the barman says to
him, "You're with the circus aren't you?, I know this duck that would be
just brilliant in your circus, he talks, drinks beer and everything!".
"Sounds marvellous", says the ringleader, "get him to give me a call".
So the next day when the duck comes into the pub the barman
says, "Hey Mr Duck, I reckon I can line you up with a top job, paying
really
good money!"
"Yeah?", says the duck, "Sounds great, where is it?"
"At the circus", says the barman.
"The circus?" the duck enquires.
"That's right", replies the barman.
"The circus?" the duck asks again.
"Yes" says the barman
"That place with the big tent?" the duck enquires.
"Yeah" the barman replies.
"With all the animals?" the duck questioned.
"Of Course" the barman replies.
"With the big canvas roof with the hole in the middle", asks the duck.
"That's right!" says the barman.
The duck looks confused.
"What would they want with a plasterer?
Hey, Aussie! What is it, 8 AM or so on the 3rd for you?
It's not the temp, brother, it's the humidity...95F at 30% humidity is nothing when you're used to 95F at 90% humidity
11:40am actually.
Will you be on the Barometer Bob show on Friday Afternoon(Thursday Night your time)?
I am a naturalized American citizen; I grew up speaking German and English at home. Grothar is an exceptionally intelligent indiviual who is also multi-lingual...he wrote a blog entry earlier today in German
who also neglects to reply to Big Bird stories....
Yes...it appears that I'm a regular...I'll have chat up this time as well so that I can field questions...
Did that info I got from Rossi help in anyway?
I will have to admit that is an oversight on his part; unfortunately, I haven't looked at it either and will have to do so shortly before you mention that little faux pas!
I've been covered up...I am going to make contact tomorrow; we can use the help, if only by way of information
BADA BING!
Viewing: 151 - 201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index