Heavy snowfall in a warming world
A major new winter storm is headed east over the U.S. today, and threatens to dump a foot or more of snow on Philadelphia, New York City, and surrounding regions Tuesday and Wednesday. Philadelphia is still digging out from its second top-ten snowstorm of recorded history to hit the city this winter, and the streets are going to begin looking like canyons if this week's snowstorm adds a significant amount of snow to the incredible 28.5" that fell during "Snowmageddon" last Friday and Saturday. Philadelphia has had two snowstorms exceeding 23" this winter. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the return period for a 22+ inch snow storm is once every 100 years--and we've had two 100-year snow storms in Philadelphia this winter. It is true that if the winter pattern of jet stream location, sea surface temperatures, etc, are suitable for a 100-year storm to form, that will increase the chances for a second such storm to occur that same year, and thus the odds have having two 100-year storms the same year are not 1 in 10,000. Still, the two huge snowstorms this winter in the Mid-Atlantic are definitely a very rare event one should see only once every few hundred years, and is something that has not occurred since modern records began in 1870. The situation is similar for Baltimore and Washington D.C. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. This one-two punch of two major Nor'easters in one winter with 16+ inches of snow is unprecedented in the historical record for the region, which goes back to the late 1800s.
Figure 1. Car buried in Virginia by "Snowmageddon" on February 8, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer Brabus Cave.
Top 9 snowstorms on record for Philadelphia:
1. 30.7", Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
3. 23.2", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
4. 21.3", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0", Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4", Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9", Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7", Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.1", Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941
The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:
1. 28.2", Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5", Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
4. 22.8", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5", Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0", Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4", Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 20.0", Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 16.0", Mar 15-18, 1892
The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:
1. 28.0", Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5", Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7", Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8" Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
5. 17.1", Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7", Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6", Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4", Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4", Feb 7, 1936
Heavy snow events--a contradiction to global warming theory?
Global warming skeptics regularly have a field day whenever a record snow storm pounds the U.S., claiming that such events are inconsistent with a globe that is warming. If the globe is warming, there should, on average, be fewer days when it snows, and thus fewer snow storms. However, it is possible that if climate change is simultaneously causing an increase in ratio of snowstorms with very heavy snow to storms with ordinary amounts of snow, we could actually see an increase in very heavy snowstorms in some portions of the world. There is evidence that this is happening for winter storms in the Northeast U.S.--the mighty Nor'easters like the "Snowmageddon" storm of February 5-6 and "Snowpocalypse" of December 19, 2009. Let's take a look at the evidence. There are two requirements for a record snow storm:
1) A near-record amount of moisture in the air (or a very slow moving storm).
2) Temperatures cold enough for snow.
It's not hard at all to get temperatures cold enough for snow in a world experiencing global warming. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the globe warmed 0.74°C (1.3°F) over the past 100 years. There will still be colder than average winters in a world that is experiencing warming, with plenty of opportunities for snow. The more difficult ingredient for producing a record snowstorm is the requirement of near-record levels of moisture. Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. This extra moisture in the air will tend to produce heavier snowstorms, assuming it is cold enough to snow. Groisman et al. (2004) found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events in the U.S. over the past 100 years, though mainly in spring and summer. However, the authors did find a significant increase in winter heavy precipitation events have occurred in the Northeast U.S. This was echoed by Changnon et al. (2006), who found, "The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901-2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901-2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity."
The strongest cold-season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent for the U.S.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change." This program has put out some excellent peer-reviewed science on climate change that, in my view, is as authoritative as the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. In 2009, the USGCRP put out its excellent U.S. Climate Impacts Report, summarizing the observed and forecast impacts of climate change on the U.S. The report's main conclusion about cold season storms was " Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent".
The report's more detailed analysis: "Large-scale storm systems are the dominant weather phenomenon during the cold season in the United States. Although the analysis of these storms is complicated by a relatively short length of most observational records and by the highly variable nature of strong storms, some clear patterns have emerged (Kunkel et al., 2008).
Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes (Kunkel et al., 2008). The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights". The study also noted that we should expect an increase in lake-effect snowstorms over the next few decades. Lake-effect snow is produced by the strong flow of cold air across large areas of relatively warmer ice-free water. The report says, "As the climate has warmed, ice coverage on the Great Lakes has fallen. The maximum seasonal coverage of Great Lakes ice decreased at a rate of 8.4 percent per decade from 1973 through 2008, amounting to a roughly 30 percent decrease in ice coverage. This has created conditions conducive to greater evaporation of moisture and thus heavier snowstorms. Among recent extreme lake-effect snow events was a February 2007 10-day storm total of over 10 feet of snow in western New York state. Climate models suggest that lake-effect snowfalls are likely to increase over the next few decades. In the longer term, lake-effect snows are likely to decrease as temperatures continue to rise, with the precipitation then falling as rain".
Figure 2. The annual average number of snowstorms with a 6 inch (15.2 cm) or greater accumulation, from the years 1901 - 2001. A value of 0.1 means an average of one 6+ inch snowstorm every ten years. Image credit: Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 8, pp. 1141-1155, DOI: 10.1175/JAM2395.1.
More heavy snowstorms occur in warmer-than-average years
Another interesting result from the Changnon et al. (2006) paper (Figure 2) is the relationship between heavy snowstorms and the average winter temperature. For the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, the authors found that 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. In other words, the old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches between 1901 - 2000. However, a separate paper by Houston and Changnon (2009), "Characteristics of the top ten snowstorms at First-Order Stations in the U.S.", found that there was no upward or downward trend in the very heaviest snowstorms for the contiguous U.S. between 1948 - 2001, as evaluated by looking at the top ten snowstorms for 121 major cities.
Commentary
One can "load the dice" in favor of events that used to be rare--or unheard of--if the climate is changing to a new state. It is quite possible that nature's weather dice have been loaded in favor of more intense Nor'easters for the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, thanks to the higher levels of moisture present in the air due to warmer global temperatures. It's worth mentioning that heavy snow storms should be getting increasingly rare for the extreme southern portion of the U.S. in coming decades. There's almost always high amounts of moisture available for a potential heavy snow in the South--just not enough cold air. With freezing temperatures expected to decrease and the jet stream and associated storm track expected to move northward, the extreme southern portion of the U.S. should see a reduction in both heavy and ordinary snow storms in the coming decades.
The CapitalClimate blog has a nice perspective on "Snowmageddon", and Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has some interesting things to say about snowstorms in a warming climate.
References
Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, , "Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States", J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 1141.1155.
Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.
Kunkel, K.E., P.D. Bromirski, H.E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A.V. Douglas, D.R. Easterling, K.A. Emanuel, P.Ya. Groisman, G.J. Holland, T.R. Knutson, J.P. Kossin, P.D. Komar, D.H. Levinson, and R.L. Smith, 2008: Observed changes in weather and climate extremes. In: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands [Karl, T.R., G.A. Meehl, C.D. Miller, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W.L. Murray (eds.)]. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, DC, pp. 35-80.
Congratulations, New Orleans!
Congratulations to everyone in New Orleans, for the Saints' Super Bowl victory! It's great to the see the city celebrating after enduring so many years of hardship in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The Audi commercial with the "Green Police".
Please, please, please say that the 6" of snow forecasted per computer models is not true. We are about -4.5F normal for the month already with 21% of the possible sunshine, just tell me it's a bad dream, I'll wake up and it July 16, 2010 and its 100F with a nice SW breeze!
Quote: "I don't know, false claims that human CO2 emissions are a pollutant" -source that from an objective site.
Huh?
1% to even feel any affect. That is roughly 12,000ppm.
We're at 387ppm and highest in the past 350million years has been 2100ppm.
It's not even questionable. Amazing I even have to write this.
I didn't have to look anything up. Been common knowledge, well, forever.
Try to prove me wrong, but that's impossible.
Modified: Mis-spoke - did have to look up the 2100. ;)
maybe the core is heating the mantle and transporting the heat under the oceans and melting the ice.... and then 2012 comes and boom goodbye folks
i must of missed it, dont remember
Please show me. That's all.
Also, I think we all put ourselves out here to be made fun of day in and day out. If someone gets offended by the treatment of an anonymous blogger then they need thicker skin I'm afraid.
I'm gay and have been called all sorts of names on this blog and other places. It doesn't bother me anymore. When I don't want to get made fun of or called names, I stop telling people I'm gay on here. Now, I just frankly don't care if someone wants to call me names. Have at it! :)
That would be so nice!
Winter Weather Expected On Thursday
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-090600-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
330 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010
...COLD TONIGHT THEN WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH
NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES FALL TO
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO BETWEEN 24 AND 29 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...SO
ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON AREA ROADS WILL LIKELY FREEZE. PATCHY ICE IS
LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAKING ROADS SLICK. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE EVOLVING
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE THERMAL PROFILE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS INCREASING.
AREAS NORTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO ATHENS LINE APPEAR TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...WHICH MEANS THAT SNOW WILL LIKELY MELT
INITIALLY...THEN ACCUMULATE AS HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS.
RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND FORECASTS BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH
Firstoff
Last time carbon dioxide levels were this high: 15 million years ago, scientists report
You would have to go back at least 15 million years to find carbon dioxide levels on Earth as high as they are today, a UCLA scientist and colleagues report Oct. 8 in the online edition of the journal Science.
"The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland," said the paper's lead author, Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA assistant professor in the department of Earth and space sciences and the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences.
"Carbon dioxide is a potent greenhouse gas, and geological observations that we now have for the last 20 million years lend strong support to the idea that carbon dioxide is an important agent for driving climate change throughout Earth's history," she said.
By analyzing the chemistry of bubbles of ancient air trapped in Antarctic ice, scientists have been able to determine the composition of Earth's atmosphere going back as far as 800,000 years, and they have developed a good understanding of how carbon dioxide levels have varied in the atmosphere since that time. But there has been little agreement before this study on how to reconstruct carbon dioxide levels prior to 800,000 years ago.
Tripati, before joining UCLA's faculty, was part of a research team at England's University of Cambridge that developed a new technique to assess carbon dioxide levels in the much more distant past — by studying the ratio of the chemical element boron to calcium in the shells of ancient single-celled marine algae. Tripati has now used this method to determine the amount of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere as far back as 20 million years ago.
"We are able, for the first time, to accurately reproduce the ice-core record for the last 800,000 years — the record of atmospheric C02 based on measurements of carbon dioxide in gas bubbles in ice," Tripati said. "This suggests that the technique we are using is valid.
"We then applied this technique to study the history of carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago to 20 million years ago," she said. "We report evidence for a very close coupling between carbon dioxide levels and climate. When there is evidence for the growth of a large ice sheet on Antarctica or on Greenland or the growth of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, we see evidence for a dramatic change in carbon dioxide levels over the last 20 million years.
"A slightly shocking finding," Tripati said, "is that the only time in the last 20 million years that we find evidence for carbon dioxide levels similar to the modern level of 387 parts per million was 15 to 20 million years ago, when the planet was dramatically different."
Levels of carbon dioxide have varied only between 180 and 300 parts per million over the last 800,000 years — until recent decades, said Tripati, who is also a member of UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics. It has been known that modern-day levels of carbon dioxide are unprecedented over the last 800,000 years, but the finding that modern levels have not been reached in the last 15 million years is new.
Prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the carbon dioxide level was about 280 parts per million, Tripati said. That figure had changed very little over the previous 1,000 years. But since the Industrial Revolution, the carbon dioxide level has been rising and is likely to soar unless action is taken to reverse the trend, Tripati said.
"During the Middle Miocene (the time period approximately 14 to 20 million years ago), carbon dioxide levels were sustained at about 400 parts per million, which is about where we are today," Tripati said. "Globally, temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer, a huge amount."
Tripati's new chemical technique has an average uncertainty rate of only 14 parts per million.
"We can now have confidence in making statements about how carbon dioxide has varied throughout history," Tripati said.
In the last 20 million years, key features of the climate record include the sudden appearance of ice on Antarctica about 14 million years ago and a rise in sea level of approximately 75 to 120 feet.
"We have shown that this dramatic rise in sea level is associated with an increase in carbon dioxide levels of about 100 parts per million, a huge change," Tripati said. "This record is the first evidence that carbon dioxide may be linked with environmental changes, such as changes in the terrestrial ecosystem, distribution of ice, sea level and monsoon intensity."
Today, the Arctic Ocean is covered with frozen ice all year long, an ice cap that has been there for about 14 million years.
"Prior to that, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic," Tripati said.
Some projections show carbon dioxide levels rising as high as 600 or even 900 parts per million in the next century if no action is taken to reduce carbon dioxide, Tripati said. Such levels may have been reached on Earth 50 million years ago or earlier, said Tripati, who is working to push her data back much farther than 20 million years and to study the last 20 million years in detail.
More than 50 million years ago, there were no ice sheets on Earth, and there were expanded deserts in the subtropics, Tripati noted. The planet was radically different.
Co-authors on the Science paper are Christopher Roberts, a Ph.D. student in the department of Earth sciences at the University of Cambridge, and Robert Eagle, a postdoctoral scholar in the division of geological and planetary sciences at the California Institute of Technology.
The research was funded by UCLA's Division of Physical Sciences and the United Kingdom's National Environmental Research Council.
Tripati's research focuses on the development and application of chemical tools to study climate change throughout history. She studies the evolution of climate and seawater chemistry through time.
"I'm interested in understanding how the carbon cycle and climate have been coupled, and why they have been coupled, over a range of time-scales, from hundreds of years to tens of millions of years," Tripati said.
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/last-time-carbon-dioxide-levels-111074.aspx
Secondly, even small changes have a considerable effect.
Changing Carbon Isotope Ratio of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Implications For Food Authentication
Carbon isotopes are often used to detect the addition of foreign sugars to foods. This technique takes advantage of the natural difference in carbon isotope ratio between C3 and C4 plants. Many foods are derived from C3 plants, but the low-cost sweeteners corn and sugar cane are C4 plants. Most adulteration studies do not take into account the secular shift of the carbon isotope ratio of atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by fossil fuel burning, a shift also seen in plant tissues. As a result statistical tests and threshold values that evaluate authenticity of foods based on carbon isotope ratios may need to be corrected for changing atmospheric isotope values. Literature and new data show that the atmospheric trend in carbon isotopes is seen in a 36-year data set of maple syrup analyses (n = 246), demonstrating that published thresholds for cane or corn sugar adulteration in maple syrup (and other foods) have become progressively more lenient over time.
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/jf100104s
Well, I gather we are going to have some snow this Th 2-11-10 after all :o)
I hardly ever write but i will and if i get banned who cares! First of all when was the Theory or Law of Global Warming declared by the scientific community. It seems that when anyone
here dares to question The GB theory, Law whatever it is, its like we are debating Einsteins Theory of Relativity or Darwin's Theory of evolution, which people debate all the time and are given more room to speak than when it comes to GW!
L8R
slow down, i take some time writing this stuff too you know... cathcing up to your replies.
I went back only a few blogs, and the only link I found was to your own blog. I will need to go back further, but before I do, let me first apologize if I have mistaken you for one whose name I omitted from my name-calling list. While you absolutely do post the kind of statements I meant to address when referencing you the first time, I am not yet seeing evidence that you post the kind of links I was referencing once you began directly addressing me. If you have a hard time understanding what I did call you out for, those examples I can pull up with ease. But I will not make an example of you beyond what I already have short of you requesting that.
Bravo :)
000
FXUS64 KHGX 082055
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR ARE SHOWING A DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH OF KSAT TO NORTH OF KCLL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUNCHING INTO
THIS LINE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER SE TX THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN FRONT OF THE LINE MOST NOTABLY
A MINI-SUPERCELL IN BURLESON WITH SOME ROTATION AND PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL. THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO MORE STORMS OF THIS NATURE AHEAD OF
THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER EMBEDDED IN
STRONG SHEAR. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH MAYBE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS IN ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED. OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUE LOOKS ON TRACK AND
NAM/WRF SOLUTIONS DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION AND
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
TODAY`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TOWARDS TX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS SUCH...LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER NW GULF COASTAL LOW SITUATION. THIS MEANS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD DOME WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
TX. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR ALL OF SE TX AND
WENT AHEAD WITH INCREASING POPS TO 80 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. ALL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP DURING THE DAY AND TAPERING
OFF THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO TX
ON FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO MAJOR CONCERN OVER PRECIP TYPE
WHICH IS RAIN. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM KCLL...KUTS TO KLFK
GENERALLY SUPPORT RAIN ALTHOUGH FROM 12Z TO 18Z THU...SHOULD
STRONG ENOUGH LIFT AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKE PLACE...ONE COULD
MAKE THE CASE FOR A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX FOR THESE AREAS. RIGHT
NOW CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ALL RAIN SCENARIO BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL SOUNDING DATA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIP (LOWER CONFIDENCE).
THE DETAILS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE NOT QUITE COMING
TOGETHER YET. FRI INTO SAT LOOK DRY FOR SE TX AND PERHAPS HAVE
SOME SUNSHINE FOR ONCE. GFS/ECMWF 12Z SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A BROAD
TOUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS SUN/MON
UNTIL THESE DETAILS GET WORKED OUT. TEMP FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE GFS AT THIS POINT FOR THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
Secondly the IPCC report is the biggest ever scientific report in the history of humankind.
where do you live again?
I'll be there soon
I have to admit... its seldom worth coming onto this blog anymore.
What used to be a very knowledgeable and entertaining blog has turned into a.....
I don't even know the right word for it... I can think of a few...but none you can actually post.
What is the sign for ditto?????
"A NICE BUT COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. AS THE DISTURBANCE SLIDES EASTWARD
INTO TEXAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE
IS GOING TO BE A STORM DEVELOPING...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE NOT
AGREED UPON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STRUGGLING WITH THE 500 MB
FORECAST...AND I SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS A
SLOWER...STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED BY THE 12Z GFS. THROUGH YEARS OF WATCHING THE GFS I HAVE
NOTED A BIAS TOWARDS FLATTER AND WEAKER SOLUTIONS IN THE MODEL.
THROUGH COORDINATION...HPC NOTED THAT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS THIS
WINTER HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. ALSO A
LOOK AT THE EXPERIENTIAL FIM MODEL SHOWS A MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH
WITH A SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...POPS WERE RAISED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. ALSO IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN HALF COULD HAVE A SHOT AT
ALL SNOW WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF TRYING TO
DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS. THE STORM IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY...AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A
REAL POSSIBILITY. TO SUMMARIZE THE TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS BEFORE EXPANDING TO COVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND FRIDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY COME OUR WAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
COULD HOLD MORE CHALLENGES FOR THE EXTENDED.
GRANTHAM"
Read this very carefully, your and the life of your family is effected already.
Arctic ice melting faster than feared: study
"It's happening much faster than our most pessimistic projections," said University of Manitoba Prof. David Barber, the lead investigator of the Circumpolar Flaw Lead study. A flaw lead is the term for open water between pack ice and coastal ice.
The study aboard the Canadian Coast Guard research ship Amundsen began in July 2007 and involved 370 scientists from around the world.
"We're seeing it happen more quickly than our model thought [it] would happen," said Barber.
Warning for the south
"It's an early indicator of what we can expect to happen further south," Barber said at a news conference in Winnipeg. "We can expect things to happen faster here, too."
Barber said the human impact on climate is being superimposed on the natural variation in climate and temperature.
The result is more variability in the climate: warm spells are getting warmer and the cold spells are getting colder.
The researchers also found that storms have become more frequent in the North as the sea ice thins.
"There are more storms now because there's more open oceans and those storms are having a dramatic impact on the sea ice," said Barber.
http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2010/02/05/tech-climate-arctic-ice.html?ref=rss
Not pointing the finger at anyone in particular; and it's not Dr. Masters' fault.
It's blog pollution-city in here --
YOU KISS YOUR MOTHERS WITH THOSE MOUTHS???
Hey, TD, could you help me with my English again? What does the word civil mean? When one has not seen an example in a long time, the meanings of some words elude me.
civil, hmmm, I'm not sure anymore
It's a comparison of what the models/people forecasted & what has come to pass (more melt than expected), not a comparison from '06 & now.
No, we haven't spoken in days, and don't live together, either... :)
I just scroll past ALL of the GW posts.
I understand what you're saying and don't blame you.
The issue for me isn't that "contrarians" are attacked, it's that there are those on both sides that want to turn it into a fist fight...
The guy that yells "hoax" is as big an idiot as the guy that says the sea levels will rise 300 feet by next Thursday. A closed mind is a small mind, plain and simple...I won't even talk about those who can't admit they're wrong
You seem confused, i posted scientific studys about longer time scales of climate data. I suggest you start to read the below post again.
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