Heavy snowfall in a warming world

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on February 08, 2010

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A major new winter storm is headed east over the U.S. today, and threatens to dump a foot or more of snow on Philadelphia, New York City, and surrounding regions Tuesday and Wednesday. Philadelphia is still digging out from its second top-ten snowstorm of recorded history to hit the city this winter, and the streets are going to begin looking like canyons if this week's snowstorm adds a significant amount of snow to the incredible 28.5" that fell during "Snowmageddon" last Friday and Saturday. Philadelphia has had two snowstorms exceeding 23" this winter. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the return period for a 22+ inch snow storm is once every 100 years--and we've had two 100-year snow storms in Philadelphia this winter. It is true that if the winter pattern of jet stream location, sea surface temperatures, etc, are suitable for a 100-year storm to form, that will increase the chances for a second such storm to occur that same year, and thus the odds have having two 100-year storms the same year are not 1 in 10,000. Still, the two huge snowstorms this winter in the Mid-Atlantic are definitely a very rare event one should see only once every few hundred years, and is something that has not occurred since modern records began in 1870. The situation is similar for Baltimore and Washington D.C. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. This one-two punch of two major Nor'easters in one winter with 16+ inches of snow is unprecedented in the historical record for the region, which goes back to the late 1800s.


Figure 1. Car buried in Virginia by "Snowmageddon" on February 8, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer Brabus Cave.

Top 9 snowstorms on record for Philadelphia:

1. 30.7", Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
3. 23.2", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
4. 21.3", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0", Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4", Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9", Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7", Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.1", Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:

1. 28.2", Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5", Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
4. 22.8", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5", Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0", Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4", Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 20.0", Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 16.0", Mar 15-18, 1892

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:

1. 28.0", Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5", Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7", Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8" Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
5. 17.1", Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7", Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6", Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4", Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4", Feb 7, 1936

Heavy snow events--a contradiction to global warming theory?
Global warming skeptics regularly have a field day whenever a record snow storm pounds the U.S., claiming that such events are inconsistent with a globe that is warming. If the globe is warming, there should, on average, be fewer days when it snows, and thus fewer snow storms. However, it is possible that if climate change is simultaneously causing an increase in ratio of snowstorms with very heavy snow to storms with ordinary amounts of snow, we could actually see an increase in very heavy snowstorms in some portions of the world. There is evidence that this is happening for winter storms in the Northeast U.S.--the mighty Nor'easters like the "Snowmageddon" storm of February 5-6 and "Snowpocalypse" of December 19, 2009. Let's take a look at the evidence. There are two requirements for a record snow storm:

1) A near-record amount of moisture in the air (or a very slow moving storm).
2) Temperatures cold enough for snow.

It's not hard at all to get temperatures cold enough for snow in a world experiencing global warming. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the globe warmed 0.74°C (1.3°F) over the past 100 years. There will still be colder than average winters in a world that is experiencing warming, with plenty of opportunities for snow. The more difficult ingredient for producing a record snowstorm is the requirement of near-record levels of moisture. Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. This extra moisture in the air will tend to produce heavier snowstorms, assuming it is cold enough to snow. Groisman et al. (2004) found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events in the U.S. over the past 100 years, though mainly in spring and summer. However, the authors did find a significant increase in winter heavy precipitation events have occurred in the Northeast U.S. This was echoed by Changnon et al. (2006), who found, "The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901-2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901-2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity."

The strongest cold-season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent for the U.S.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change." This program has put out some excellent peer-reviewed science on climate change that, in my view, is as authoritative as the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. In 2009, the USGCRP put out its excellent U.S. Climate Impacts Report, summarizing the observed and forecast impacts of climate change on the U.S. The report's main conclusion about cold season storms was " Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent".

The report's more detailed analysis: "Large-scale storm systems are the dominant weather phenomenon during the cold season in the United States. Although the analysis of these storms is complicated by a relatively short length of most observational records and by the highly variable nature of strong storms, some clear patterns have emerged (Kunkel et al., 2008).

Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes (Kunkel et al., 2008). The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights".
The study also noted that we should expect an increase in lake-effect snowstorms over the next few decades. Lake-effect snow is produced by the strong flow of cold air across large areas of relatively warmer ice-free water. The report says, "As the climate has warmed, ice coverage on the Great Lakes has fallen. The maximum seasonal coverage of Great Lakes ice decreased at a rate of 8.4 percent per decade from 1973 through 2008, amounting to a roughly 30 percent decrease in ice coverage. This has created conditions conducive to greater evaporation of moisture and thus heavier snowstorms. Among recent extreme lake-effect snow events was a February 2007 10-day storm total of over 10 feet of snow in western New York state. Climate models suggest that lake-effect snowfalls are likely to increase over the next few decades. In the longer term, lake-effect snows are likely to decrease as temperatures continue to rise, with the precipitation then falling as rain".


Figure 2. The annual average number of snowstorms with a 6 inch (15.2 cm) or greater accumulation, from the years 1901 - 2001. A value of 0.1 means an average of one 6+ inch snowstorm every ten years. Image credit: Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 8, pp. 1141-1155, DOI: 10.1175/JAM2395.1.

More heavy snowstorms occur in warmer-than-average years
Another interesting result from the Changnon et al. (2006) paper (Figure 2) is the relationship between heavy snowstorms and the average winter temperature. For the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, the authors found that 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. In other words, the old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches between 1901 - 2000. However, a separate paper by Houston and Changnon (2009), "Characteristics of the top ten snowstorms at First-Order Stations in the U.S.", found that there was no upward or downward trend in the very heaviest snowstorms for the contiguous U.S. between 1948 - 2001, as evaluated by looking at the top ten snowstorms for 121 major cities.

Commentary
One can "load the dice" in favor of events that used to be rare--or unheard of--if the climate is changing to a new state. It is quite possible that nature's weather dice have been loaded in favor of more intense Nor'easters for the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, thanks to the higher levels of moisture present in the air due to warmer global temperatures. It's worth mentioning that heavy snow storms should be getting increasingly rare for the extreme southern portion of the U.S. in coming decades. There's almost always high amounts of moisture available for a potential heavy snow in the South--just not enough cold air. With freezing temperatures expected to decrease and the jet stream and associated storm track expected to move northward, the extreme southern portion of the U.S. should see a reduction in both heavy and ordinary snow storms in the coming decades.

The CapitalClimate blog has a nice perspective on "Snowmageddon", and Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has some interesting things to say about snowstorms in a warming climate.

References
Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, , "Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States", J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 1141.1155.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Kunkel, K.E., P.D. Bromirski, H.E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A.V. Douglas, D.R. Easterling, K.A. Emanuel, P.Ya. Groisman, G.J. Holland, T.R. Knutson, J.P. Kossin, P.D. Komar, D.H. Levinson, and R.L. Smith, 2008: Observed changes in weather and climate extremes. In: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands [Karl, T.R., G.A. Meehl, C.D. Miller, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W.L. Murray (eds.)]. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, DC, pp. 35-80.

Congratulations, New Orleans!
Congratulations to everyone in New Orleans, for the Saints' Super Bowl victory! It's great to the see the city celebrating after enduring so many years of hardship in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Jeff Masters

Holly Berry (DocBop)
Holly Berry
Wintry woods (photomaniac10)
Wintry woods

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Quoting JFLORIDA:
The problem whth the Indian government climate reports is that they are edited to be in line with an India's agenda. Not only is there no peer review but they issue a disclaimer last year that their reports do not necessarily agree with climate scientists.

That and the Himalayan glacier mistake is become something of a war of words between India and the IPCC chair.


And the U.S. liberals don't have an agenda? The U.N.? They just want the best for people? The best thing for countries to do is pull out of the U.N.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Anyone looking to escape the cold, well here ya go...Link


I'll be getting that in a few months so I'll pass for right now this 44 degree weather is a nice change from the average.
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Lowered the totals for the DC area and include sleet and rain to start.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 14 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SNOW RATES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND HEAVY
SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
NEARLY STEADY WEDNESDAY.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting IKE:


Agree...I would always bet against it happening here.


Quoting Jeff9641:


The CMC model is further to the north as well The CMC and the Euro are very good within five days. I don't think snow though. More like a cold rain. We should see the GFS follow the north trend on the 18Z run.


The GFS did as well, as expected. As the event nears, the trend is north & west. However, this is the furthest south the models have come with a low. Of what significance that carries? We'll soon find out.
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Anyone looking to escape the cold, well here ya go...Link
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IKE, I wouldn't rule out a flurry. :)
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1154. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


The CMC model is further to the north as well The CMC and the Euro are very good within five days. I don't think snow though. More like a cold rain. We should see the GFS follow the north trend on the 18Z run.


Agree...I would always bet against it happening here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting mrnicktou:


Sad thing is they probly will so we just got to get ready especially us on the coast. I sat thru hurricane Ike and that was one powerful beast now the inside of me wants another hurricane but I don't need to see people get devastated again.


I was in Andrew so I can relate.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting PcolaDan:


I suspect a lot of people use their Firefox add-on, thus creating a lot of traffic for them as people look to see what the alert is.


Auto-refresh is amazing.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:
1137. These snow storms aren't playing an games this year that's for sure. I just hope the hurricanes don't follow their example!


Sad thing is they probly will so we just got to get ready especially us on the coast. I sat thru hurricane Ike and that was one powerful beast now the inside of me wants another hurricane but I don't need to see people get devastated again.
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Quoting IKE:
On Accuweather's website....

AccuWeather.com is experiencing record traffic due to the major snowstorm moving across the country.


I suspect a lot of people use their Firefox add-on, thus creating a lot of traffic for them as people look to see what the alert is.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1147. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


They must be loving that.


I bet so. Pages are loading real slow on their website. I was trying to see if they've dropped the snow chance for here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
On Accuweather's website....

AccuWeather.com is experiencing record traffic due to the major snowstorm moving across the country.


They must be loving that.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1145. IKE
On Accuweather's website....

AccuWeather.com is experiencing record traffic due to the major snowstorm moving across the country.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I love this quote from India regarding the IPCC. India is exhibiting leadership in this area and has formed their own group to study climate change.

"There is a fine line between climate science and climate evangelism. I am all for climate science but not for climate evangelism. I think people misused the IPCC report," Ramesh told an Indian news channel.

There's more on my blog regarding the IPCC.

Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here we go again :)))

Issued by The National Weather Service
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL
9:46 am EST, Tue., Feb. 9, 2010

... FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THEN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON A BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS COLDER AIR MASS MAY BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WITH SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

THE COLDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NATURE COAST AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND AREA LAKES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 7 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS MAY ALSO WISH TO POSTPONE LAKE RELATED ACTIVITIES UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

THE MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE EXTRA CAREFUL WITH ANY OUTDOOR OPEN FLAME.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO ENSURE THAT TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS ARE COVERED OR BROUGHT INDOORS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PETS SHOULD ALSO BE BROUGHT INDOORS. RESIDENTS PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD DRESS WARMLY TO PROTECT THEMSELVES FROM THE COLD. SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING WILL INSULATE YOU BETTER THAN A SINGLE COAT OR JACKET.


I like the last sentence, always find some humor in that especially for you folks up North.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
I apologize, I know it's not exactly weather related, however, to keep up your energy for the upcoming snow event..Free Grand Slam's at Denny's until 2pm CST today :0)!!


Drove by one to see. No way was I going to stand in that line, especially in the rain. LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here we go again :)))

Issued by The National Weather Service
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL
9:46 am EST, Tue., Feb. 9, 2010

... FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THEN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON A BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS COLDER AIR MASS MAY BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WITH SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

THE COLDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NATURE COAST AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND AREA LAKES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 7 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS MAY ALSO WISH TO POSTPONE LAKE RELATED ACTIVITIES UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

THE MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE EXTRA CAREFUL WITH ANY OUTDOOR OPEN FLAME.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO ENSURE THAT TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS ARE COVERED OR BROUGHT INDOORS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PETS SHOULD ALSO BE BROUGHT INDOORS. RESIDENTS PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD DRESS WARMLY TO PROTECT THEMSELVES FROM THE COLD. SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING WILL INSULATE YOU BETTER THAN A SINGLE COAT OR JACKET.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1137. These snow storms aren't playing an games this year that's for sure. I just hope the hurricanes don't follow their example!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I just snuck into Accuweather, they're predicting 1 in. accumulation for Tallahassee!


Oh man, that'll shut them down until it melts.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Shoot, even Chicago, IL is getting SLAMMED, Blizzard Watch in effect:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1151 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

INZ001-002-011-100200-
/O.CON.KLOT.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100210T1800Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.BZ.A.0001.100210T0500Z-100210T1500Z/
LAKE IN-PORTER-JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GARY...VALPARAISO...RENSSELAER
1151 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...
...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM CST THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH UP TO AROUND
A FOOT AND A HALF OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

* HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO ACCUMULATING AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW MAY
RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERED
DURING THE STORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH EVEN MAJOR
ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BECOMING SNOW COVERED AT TIMES. SEVERE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN OUTLYING
AREAS...WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BLIZZARD OR
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...ICE...OR STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUUS.
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I just snuck into Accuweather, they're predicting 1 in. accumulation for Tallahassee!
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I prefer to call them heart attacks!

I just ate lunch, darn, I should have waited.
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1134. IKE
Day 3 from the HPC...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Bordonaro:
Free Grand Slam's at Denny's until 2pm CST today :0)!!


I prefer to call them heart attacks!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
I apologize, I know it's not exactly weather related, however, to keep up your energy for the upcoming snow event..Free Grand Slam's at Denny's until 2pm CST today :0)!!
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1131. code1
Ewww ya'll are gonna be in trouble, making it a FL, gulf coast blog again! Think I will just go eat worms and watch the unaccuweather and twc crap for real updates on what is really going on in the country now. LOL

Take care all mid-atlantic, NE folks, and even wish casters for our area. Ha It's all good, and there will be a tomorrow God willing.
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1130. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Excerpt from EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

...WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST...


FINAL...

THE 12Z/09 GEFS MEAN...ECMWF...AND GEM GLOBAL ALL TRENDED
NORTHWARD WITH THE GULF WAVE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD
...SO BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR
THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE GEM GLOBAL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW ONCE IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC...LIFTING A DEEP CENTER A
GOOD BIT OF THE WAY TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A
TREND TO WATCH...WITH LARGE IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN
TERMS OF WINTER WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...STUCK WITH THE EARLIER BLEND
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...RULING THE GEM GLOBAL AS AN
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST DAY 6.



Maybe there is some hope here. I thought the 12Z ECMWF had trended north with the GOM low and more moisture with it too.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
disregard the last post may still be experiencing some problems I guess because of the Winter weather!
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I love how they refer to it as "non-liquid". :)

LOL i know! haha!
Quoting IKE:


But looking at the late morning discussion from Tallahassee office....

"WE ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. IT
APPEARS BASED ON MODEL DATA THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF NON-LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IS RATHER LOW DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS RELATING TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL REEVALUATE
THIS FORECAST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COMPLETE 12Z GUIDANCE
PACKAGE. HOWEVER IT IS LOOKING BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THAT THE COLD
AIR JUST WON`T ARRIVE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST."

Aww... well I am going to keep my small hopes up. Last time it was a pretty low chance, too!
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Quoting IKE:


But looking at the late morning discussion from Tallahassee office....

"WE ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. IT
APPEARS BASED ON MODEL DATA THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF NON-LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IS RATHER LOW DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS RELATING TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL REEVALUATE
THIS FORECAST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COMPLETE 12Z GUIDANCE
PACKAGE. HOWEVER IT IS LOOKING BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THAT THE COLD
AIR JUST WON`T ARRIVE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST."


Which is why it is rare here. Tough for these fronts to not pull warm Gulf air in front of them, even if it is just slight. If moisture manages to stick around behind the front, then we get a chance. Not holding my breath though.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Accuweather site is down!
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I love how they refer to it as "non-liquid". :)
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Excerpt from EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

...WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST...


FINAL...

THE 12Z/09 GEFS MEAN...ECMWF...AND GEM GLOBAL ALL TRENDED
NORTHWARD WITH THE GULF WAVE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...SO BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR
THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE GEM GLOBAL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW ONCE IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC...LIFTING A DEEP CENTER A
GOOD BIT OF THE WAY TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A
TREND TO WATCH...WITH LARGE IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN
TERMS OF WINTER WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...STUCK WITH THE EARLIER BLEND
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...RULING THE GEM GLOBAL AS AN
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST DAY 6.

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1123. IKE
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

Me too! We got a taste of sleet earlier, now its time for some REAL flurries!


But looking at the late morning discussion from Tallahassee office....

"WE ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. IT
APPEARS BASED ON MODEL DATA THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF NON-LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IS RATHER LOW DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS RELATING TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL REEVALUATE
THIS FORECAST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COMPLETE 12Z GUIDANCE
PACKAGE. HOWEVER IT IS LOOKING BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THAT THE COLD
AIR JUST WON`T ARRIVE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the 12Z ECMWF.. has trended slightly further north with the late week GOM low.

I'm wishcasting some snow here in the Florida panhandle. Please!

I know IKE; I'm getting excited about the local NWS forecasts too. We definitely need to have that moisture in place and the temps down by Thursday night/Friday morning, and we'll be having us some fun!
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Quoting code1:
Double gloving is the best practice now days Amy. ;-)

LOL

HAHA!
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1120. code1
Double gloving is the best practice now days Amy. ;-)

Ike, I'ma gonna be after you soon for wishcasting. Now, I must find my way to DeFuniak before the snow falls! LOL
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like the 12Z ECMWF.. has trended slightly further north with the late week GOM low.

I'm wishcasting some snow here in the Florida panhandle. Please!

Me too! We got a taste of sleet earlier, now its time for some REAL flurries!
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Hmmm, I didn't see it that way at all. I saw political, 3rd (or 2nd) world vs superpower kind of thing. Mexico is not a race. But then again, 3 out of 4 of my Grandparents came from Mexico, so maybe I see it differently.


I guess I took it literally that SC is south of NC, just like Mexico is south of the USA.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting PcolaDan:


Hmmm, I didn't see it that way at all. I saw political, 3rd (or 2nd) world vs superpower kind of thing. Mexico is not a race. But then again, 3 out of 4 of my Grandparents came from Mexico, so maybe I see it differently.

racisim does exactly that, create a distinction where there should be none. many who hold racist viewpoints have very racist things to say about mexicans. those statements are what surface when creating that image. it is ascribing the same broad assumptions of a people to mock another people. whether light hearted or not, we shouldn't be ignoring historical perspective, and the fallacy of being overly PC should be dismantled.

i'm also sick of seeing my own entries being moral policing, for those of you who feel the same way. please help me stop by using better judgment when posting.
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1116. IKE
Looks like the 12Z ECMWF.. has trended slightly further north with the late week GOM low.

I'm wishcasting some snow here in the Florida panhandle. Please!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1115. code1
Quoting mrnicktou:


Cliques sadly have their stronghold in here and its starting to be MMGW clique vs. the group of people who think its a hoax so soon everybody will be hidden and you can thank Dr. M for bringing this subject in here.


The only reply I have for you is it is HIS blog. Open your own perhaps? No readers? hmmmmmm
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1114. NRAamy
Come on, when push comes to shove? Who among us would not lend a helping hand to any here?

can I wear some gloves?

;)
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Hmmm, I didn't see it that way at all. I saw political, 3rd (or 2nd) world vs superpower kind of thing. Mexico is not a race. But then again, 3 out of 4 of my Grandparents came from Mexico, so maybe I see it differently.
I agree as well....its not racist... its political. I took the t-shirt the same way as PcolaDan.
But then again, like Cane said, more and more things are being taken to be "racist" everywhere.
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1112. code1
I hear you all. Now I confess, I am one of the WORST offenders of days gone by. I am here to tell you now, that it is useless and tiresome for others. You think you hit the motherlode when you come here and find your voice? bwahahahhaaa, we've been there, done that. It ain't pretty, and does no one any good. TAKE IT TO MAIL ONLY! And another lesson I had to learn by trial and error, only mail those you wish to speak to! Sending out copies to others only lowers your own self esteem and standing. Again been there, done that myself. I even own the original t shirt for it!! Come on, when push comes to shove? Who among us would not lend a helping hand to any here?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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