January 2010: extremes and monthly summary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:33 PM GMT on February 19, 2010

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:

According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.

A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.

Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).

Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.


Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.


Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.

U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::

All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.

Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.

The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.

Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.

Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.

Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.

Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).

Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)

Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.

Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.

Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.

Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.

Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).

Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.

January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.

Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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813. Gustavike
5:07 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Rain continues to fall in western and central Cuba. From 2:00 am persistent rain, strong at times affect Havana. More rain is expected on Wednesday when a new cold front arrives.
Member Since: January 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 67
812. SQUAWK
4:53 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!!
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
811. belizeit
4:47 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
It was amazing to watch the space shuttle coming down last night here in Belize we could see the fire trail from horizon to horizon .
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
810. TXGulfCoast
4:46 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
I wouldn't mind a few flakes of snow down here South of Houston, TX.
Member Since: April 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
809. Seastep
4:45 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Hi all. Thought I'd share this.

Check this out. As I've said many times, VC's will invest if there is money to be made. The whole "Big Oil stops it" is pure fallacy. They have zero power over entrepreneurs. No govt necessary.

Also notice how long we've been trying. Again, it is not for lack of trying. It is lack of practical applicability.

If this really works, it will be revolutionary. Watch the whole thing. Already installed at some companies, including FedEx.

Link

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
808. StormChaser81
4:44 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane:IMPRESSIVE CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA


Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
807. 1900hurricane
4:36 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
12Z GFS RUN, Surface Map for 30 hrs 2/23/10 at Noon, pushed the snow axis a little further North, just South of DFW, TX:


That's interesting, especially when coupled with this:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221616
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECTING THIS TO HOLD
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ERODING FROM THE COAST
NORTH AND FROM THE WEST. HAVE PARED BACK THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER
A COOL START IN THE 44-48 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 53-55
NORTH AND 56-62 SOUTH AND THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS
ENDING 21Z AND LATER OVER THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-10.

AS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES
TO THAT PORTION OF THE PACKAGE. THE NAM 06Z AND 12Z RUNS HAVE
TRENDED 10-40 MILES FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP/SNOW.
WILL BE WAITING FOR THE GFS BEFORE ANY CHANGES WILL BE MADE.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
806. Levi32
4:33 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting benirica:
Can anyone post or give me a link to where I can see what the SST was like this time in 2005?
Thanks!


February 22, 2005:



February 22, 2010:



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
805. Levi32
4:31 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting NEwxguy:
GM all,very active week ahead,depending on where you live,the country will see a little bit of everything over at least the next couple of weeks. As long as El nino continues and the -NAO continues,this is going to be an active southerly jet and cold air periodically plunging down from Canada. Oh when,Oh when will spring make an appearance.


March, especially the first half of the month, will probably be nasty, but during latter march and April I think spring will make an appearance. The analogue years for this winter all have things reverse from a cold February and March to a warm April and May over the eastern U.S.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
804. benirica
4:18 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Can anyone post or give me a link to where I can see what the SST was like this time in 2005?
Thanks!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
803. unf97
4:16 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
NEwxguy,

It looks as if the NAO is back in effect again for sure if the models verify. Spring is on hold for a while longer folks. That southern stream shortwave for next week really looks interesting for the Deep South if the models pan out.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
802. SNOWARMER
4:11 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Tuesday Night
Cloudy. A 40 percent chance of rain early in the evening...then a 40 percent chance of snow in the evening. Lows in the mid 30s inland...in the upper 30s coast. North winds 10 to 20 mph

ALL THIS SOUTH OF HOUSTON...
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
801. NEwxguy
4:08 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
GM all,very active week ahead,depending on where you live,the country will see a little bit of everything over at least the next couple of weeks. As long as El nino continues and the -NAO continues,this is going to be an active southerly jet and cold air periodically plunging down from Canada. Oh when,Oh when will spring make an appearance.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15820
800. StormChaser81
4:00 PM GMT on February 22, 2010

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
799. Bordonaro
3:55 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
12Z GFS RUN, Surface Map for 30 hrs 2/23/10 at Noon, pushed the snow axis a little further North, just South of DFW, TX:

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
798. GTcooliebai
3:53 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting unf97:
Good morning everyone!

I hope everyone had a great weekend. I took a peek at the 7 day model runs for GFS and the ECWWF this morning. If these runs verify over the course of this week, old man winter will definitely be roaring in like a lion across the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. What is particularly striking with both of these model runs is a very potent shortwave which could develop across the Deep South by late this upcoming weekend into the early part of next week. The GFS and ECMWF are both indicating the potential of a major winter storm across the Deep South again, similar to the February 11-12 snowstorm. It is still early and things definitely can change of course with the model runs. However, this is certainly sonething which bears careful watching over the next several days.

One thing looks definite however, and that is a significantly colder pattern will be back for the Eastern CONUS over the next 10-12 days. It appears that the NAO will bring another polar air mass during this period, although hopefully not of the brutal nature we saw back in the first two weeks of January. But, nonetheless, for late winter, temperatures are going to be well below normal.

Have a great day everyone.

Hey I say bring it on man, I love the cold and hate the hot.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
797. RitaEvac
3:49 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Bone chilling cold for next 2 weeks
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
796. unf97
3:31 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Good morning everyone!

I hope everyone had a great weekend. I took a peek at the 7 day model runs for GFS and the ECWWF this morning. If these runs verify over the course of this week, old man winter will definitely be roaring in like a lion across the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. What is particularly striking with both of these model runs is a very potent shortwave which could develop across the Deep South by late this upcoming weekend into the early part of next week. The GFS and ECMWF are both indicating the potential of a major winter storm across the Deep South again, similar to the February 11-12 snowstorm. It is still early and things definitely can change of course with the model runs. However, this is certainly sonething which bears careful watching over the next several days.

One thing looks definite however, and that is a significantly colder pattern will be back for the Eastern CONUS over the next 10-12 days. It appears that the NAO will bring another polar air mass during this period, although hopefully not of the brutal nature we saw back in the first two weeks of January. But, nonetheless, for late winter, temperatures are going to be well below normal.

Have a great day everyone.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
795. AwakeInMaryland
3:09 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting TampaTom:


GO TERPS!

Some of these sculptures are really good. I just found a page of them; evidently they're located all over the U.Md. campus(es) and other appropriate places.

Here's one of the Chesapeake Bay (sort of blog related):


Thanks for All the Fish—Artist: Kat Cappillino
Sponsor: Cisco
Location: Baltimore, Maryland—National Aquarium


"Fear the Turtle Sculpture Project"
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
794. Tazmanian
2:51 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
DISCUSSION...
DID YOU ENJOY THE 70S TODAY?


LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
793. FLWeatherFreak91
2:51 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:
What a horrible Accident in Florida Saturday evening! What was these Teens thinking!

3 girls killed by oncoming train in Melbourne
How awful. I attend school at Florida Tech about 2 miles from there and I just heard about it now. I often sit -under- the bridge to watch the trains pass over.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3623
791. 1900hurricane
2:35 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220955
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
DID YOU ENJOY THE 70S TODAY? ENJOY THE CALM BEFORE STORM. A COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE COAST AND HAS CLEARED OUT THE STUBBORN SEA
FOG PLAGUING THE COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MID DAY LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE S/WV APPROACHES...IT WILL
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS FRONT. AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL...EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN
WILL ENSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF DRY AIR AROUND 900 MB
SO ONCE PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL...SO WILL THE TEMPERATURES. ALL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW 0 C NORTH OF A
CALDWELL TO TRINITY LINE BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL START IN THE
MORNING BUT QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE FOR TUESDAY.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL
POLICIES DICTATE THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN 2 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE.
THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM RATHER CONCERNED
THAT CONVECTIVE BANDING COULD SET UP FROM BRYAN TO CROCKETT...
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN DFW A FEW WEEKS AGO. THIS WOULD BUMP
SNOW TOTALS UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. WHERE DOES
THE RAIN SNOW LINE SET UP? AM CONCERNED THAT MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES MAY GET ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN HOUSTON AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. COULD EVEN GET A RAIN SNOW MIX ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES CONFLUENT BY 09Z WEDNESDAY AND
THE PRECIP SHOULD SHUT DOWN RATHER QUICKLY.

A COUPLE OF QUIET DAYS ON WED/THU WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
X-SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY. AS STATED YESTERDAY...THE GFS
HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL AS OF LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRINGS A 120 KNOT SPEED MAX SOUTHWARD BUT THE GFS INDUCES SFC LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS FAVORS THE ECMWF. THAT SAID...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BECAUSE THE OF THE RECENT
SUCCESS OF THE GFS. ANOTHER POTENT STORM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH YET MORE RAIN. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE SEA FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE MARINE AREAS. CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

40
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
790. weathermanwannabe
2:09 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Good Morning Folks.....Beautiful weekend in North Florida and lots of moisture out there this morning in the same parts as the weak front comes through......Another few weeks of cool downs and Spring will be here before you know it (along with some severe weather threats in March and April)....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9213
789. TampaTom
2:08 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I don't think a true American really cares.......

I beg your pardon?



GO TERPS!
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
788. RitaEvac
2:03 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
SE TX weather:

Significant Winter Storm event heading for SE TX.Accumulating snowfall expected Tuesday over portions of SE TX.

Winter Storm Watch issued for the following counties: Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Washington, Montgomery, Walker, Houston, Madison, Trinity, San Jacinto, and Polk.

Discussion:
Cold air advection in progress this morning behind the late Sunday cold front. Cold arctic dome over the central plains will filter southward today while the next upper level storm noted over NV this morning makes the eastward turn and begins it treck toward TX. Stratus deck this morning may break up some this afternoon, before high clouds begin to arrive from the west. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight as moisture and lift increase.

Tuesday:
Strong upper level storm drops toward the Big Bend area with a developing shield of winter precip. Over much of central TX by morning. Forecast soundings show the air mass over the area dry and cold by Tuesday morning. A dry layer in the 900-800mb level will support some room for evaporative cooling of the air column with the onset of rain/snow Tuesday morning over our NW counties first and then spreading SE during the afternoon hours. Meso scale models continue to point toward a fairly unstable layer in the snow growth area around 700mb over the northern portions of SE TX Tuesday afternoon. Past events and studies with such instability (Dallas 2 week ago, and Victoria in Dec 2004) suggest the formation of meso scale banding and potential for very heavy snowfall rates. 700mb front will also be introduced into the mix to add forcing over our northern counties. May see a band of very heavy snow develop from College Station to Huntsville Tuesday afternoon/evening with significant accumulations.

Tuesday night:
Rain/snow mix will spread toward the coast with a change over to all snow across inland SE TX. At this time it appears the rain will mix with snow by mid afternoon toward Harris County and then change to snow after dark Tuesday as far south as US 59. Surface temperatures will fall toward freezing during the early evening hours as far south as I-10 as accumulating snow pack just to the north advects colder surface air southward. The southward extent of accumulation will likely end up over Austin/Waller/Harris/Liberty counties.

Accumulations:
College Station to Trinity northward:
Models are really pegging this area for some significant accumulations. For now will go all snow Tuesday/Tuesday night with accumulations of 2-4 inches and isolated locations of 6 %u201D possible.

Austin to Brenham to Conroe to Coldspring northward:
Rain/snow mix will begin Tuesday morning and change to all snow Tuesday afternoon. Accumulations of 2-3%u201D is likely with isolated totals of 3-5%u201D possible.

Columbus to Downtown Houston to Liberty northward:
Rain will start the event changing to a rain/snow mix during the mid afternoon and all snow after dark. Accumulations of generally less than 1 inch is likely.

Columbus to Downtown Houston to Liberty southward:
Rain will start the event changing to rain/snow after dark Tuesday and possibly all snow before ending late Tuesday. Most of what falls in this region will melt on contact as surface temperatures struggle to get to freezing.

Impacts:
Surface temperatures are forecast to be in the 32-35 degree range for much of the day Tuesday as the snow falls which indicates a lot will melt on impact, except where heavy snow bands develop. Temperatures will drop Tuesday evening to or below freezing along and N of I-10 where melted snow on bridges and overpasses may begin to freeze. Additionally as surface temperatures fall toward/below freezing Tuesday evening snowfall will begin to accumulate faster mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. Could see some icing/glazing of bridges and overpasses Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning over the northern of the area.

While confidence is growing in this event, the amount of accumulation and where the rain/snow line ends up remains in some question. Forecasting meso banding location is extremely difficult, but very high impact and much of this will not be known until the event is underway.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
787. twhcracker
1:08 PM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I just saw a skunk outside, in Southern Ontario, in February. Probably not a common sight at this time of year, and I also saw a faint 22-degree colourless halo around the moon.


i saw ducks flying north in formation (from nw fla) this morning and last year i did not see that til the end of march.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
783. caribbeantracker01
11:39 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
is that high pressure responsable for the sea surface temp bein that hot around d african coast givin the fact that it is so close and could that change in d cumming months
?
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
782. caribbeantracker01
11:35 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I guess you guys wasn't expecting this to be so low near the north west caribben lol

wat is it the high???????
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
781. all4hurricanes
11:13 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2007 was not anything average. 15 named storms, 2 Category 5 landfalls.

How ever
14 storms 6 hurricanes and 2 hurricanes is about average, and according to the ACE 2007 was below average. 2007 is hard to put a pin on depends on how you look at it.
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
780. CybrTeddy
10:44 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ive noticed a pattern in the past few years for hurricane seasons
2005: monstrous
2006: bust
2007: average
2008: monstrous
2009: bust
2010: average?
except everyone is saying 16 storms and several major hurricanes but that's what everyone has said before every season


2007 was not anything average. 15 named storms, 2 Category 5 landfalls.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
779. Tazmanian
6:30 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
the sea temper are off the map
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
778. Tazmanian
6:29 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
i dont re call seeing them that warm even in 2005
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
777. Tazmanian
6:26 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
WOW look how warm the sea tempers are out here


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
775. TampaSpin
5:09 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
What a horrible Accident in Florida Saturday evening! What was these Teens thinking!

3 girls killed by oncoming train in Melbourne
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
774. TampaSpin
5:04 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I'm looking at this Olympics hockey score, but I'm not believing it. Good game, I hope Canada doesn't hold it against us forever. USA 5, Canada 3.


I don't mind hurting Canada's feelings in Hockey.....So glad for the US Team.....they really kicked the CAnadian A-s ! HOLD IT AGAINST US! HOW FUNNY! I don't think a true American really cares.......LOVE IT!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
773. 1900hurricane
4:14 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
000
FXUS64 KFWD 220349 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
949 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

.UPDATE...
ZONE PACKAGE REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT BE UPDATED THIS
EVENING.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A HEAVY SNOWFALL AXIS ALONG A
COMANCHE TO PALESTINE LINE WITH ONE INCH OR LESS AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH
OF I-20. IN FACT...TONIGHTS NAM RUN HAS INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF...WHICH IS ABOUT
DOUBLE OF THE 18Z RUN.

THE GFS HAS NOT COME IN FOR EVALUATION...BUT THE 12 AND 18Z RUNS
REMAIN VERY BULLISH FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A LARGE CHUCK OF THE
CWA. THE 18Z RUN PAINTED UP TO 6 INCHES ALONG I-20 AND ACROSS
THOSE COUNTIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-20.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE/LL HOLD THE CURRENT
FORECAST INTACT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 2-4 INCHES FALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN METROPLEX WITH ISOLATED SWATCHES OF 5-8 INCHES FOR
BANDED SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 WHERE THE NAM SHOWS THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. ACTIVE WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH TOMORROW MORNINGS FORECAST.

EL NINO WINTERS...YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010/

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TX THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND REMAIN IN THE 60S UNDER
SCATTERED CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHERE THE
DRYLINE MEETS WITH THE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING. AT THIS TIME THIS TRIPLE POINT IS CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE METROPLEX WHERE A LINE OF WEAK STORMS/RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO
MOVE EAST THRU DALLAS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT A WET AFTERNOON COMMUTE
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TX TONIGHT
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. EVEN THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE PERIOD...AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS BUILD
OVER NORTH TX AND COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHEN AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE POTENTIAL WINTER WX EVENT...BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL TX.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL TX AND SPREAD EAST
RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST
ALONG THE TX/MEXICO BORDER. PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY START OUT
AS LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER THROUGH PERSISTENT LIFT AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. BY 18Z...GFS AND NAM BOTH SPREAD
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN NORTH TX. AT THE SAME TIME A NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED CROSS SECTION THROUGH THE CWA INDICATES STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE H700 TO H550 LAYER. ABOVE THIS FRONTOGENESIS
AXIS IS A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY /EPV/ WHICH GENERALLY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF EITHER
SLANTWISE OR UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS ZONE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH THE -12 TO -18 DEG C LEVEL...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED
ZONE FOR DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WHICH IS A LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOW STATIC STABILITY
ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDING LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE WE ARE
EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO COME FROM BANDING
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THESE FEATURES. BEING MESOSCALE IN NATURE...WE MAY NOT HAVE A
GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES UNTIL 6-12 HRS
BEFORE THEY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME OPTED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH TO CONVEY THE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER THAT CAN
COME FROM THESE BANDS. WHILE ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WINTER STORM
WATCH MAY NOT SEE 4 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL...THIS ZONE
REPRESENTS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
AREAS THAT SEE SNOW BANDS AND THOSE THAT DO NOT. ONE INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE BANDS. IN GENERAL AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CISCO TO ATHENS LINE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO SEE 4 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR GREATER BY TUESDAY
EVENING. TO THE NORTH...IN GENERAL WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AROUND 1
INCH OF SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY SNOW BANDS
MANAGE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN AND NEAR THE WACO AREA WOULD BE THE FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 1982. STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST DETAILS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM.

EXTENDED...WITH MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
EVENT DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. TWO MORE
UPPER LVL SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO AFFECT NORTH TX. THE FIRST
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...AND THE
SECOND LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW ALL
MODELS POINT TO A LIQUID PRECIPITATION SOLUTION.

CAVANAUGH / HUCKABY
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
772. GeoffreyWPB
4:13 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Rain in West Palm area is a coming!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11264
771. GeoffreyWPB
4:11 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Who killed the blog????
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11264
769. GeoffreyWPB
3:42 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11264
768. wunderkidcayman
3:41 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
I guess you guys wasn't expecting this to be so low near the north west caribben lol

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
767. flsky
3:31 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Shuttle down safely!
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2005
766. Levi32
3:11 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting pottery:
Interesting to note too, that the Trade winds have been relatively strong across the Trop Atl., and that would normally tend to cool the SST. Because there are waves and lots of water mixing.
If it stays sunny through May, when the winds begin to drop, the SST could raise more.


I can't figure out why you've been so windy in Trinidad. I must be missing something. Pressures over the north Atlantic have been well below normal all winter, resulting in a weakened Azores high and very weak trade winds over the eastern Atlantic. This is one of the reasons why SSTs are so high west of Africa. But I can't figure out why those trades would increase so much in the eastern Caribbean.

Surface pressures for the last 3 months:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
765. Levi32
3:05 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Precipitation in the current warm anomaly from Africa to the Caribbean will be above average, hence hampering some of the SAL.



That high is dislocated and positioned over the southeastern North Atlantic, leaving the Caribbean to warm rapidly as spring approaches, opening the Caribbean hurricane season by June.


That will help a little, but what really matters is the precipitation at the source of the SAL, over western Africa. Right now it looks to me like precipitation will be normal or slightly above normal in the SAL region, which should keep SAL lower than we've seen it the last few years.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
763. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:03 AM GMT on February 22, 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I am rather surprised that we are not under a winter storm watch or warning as many places just downtrack (coined that word) from us in Michigan are under a warning and expected to see up to 8 inches of snow:

maybe after midnight we may see more after the passage then during
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.