January 2010: extremes and monthly summary
The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.
Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:
According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.
A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.
Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).
Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.
Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.
Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.
U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::
All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.
Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.
The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.
Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.
Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.
Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.
Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).
Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)
Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.
Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.
Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.
Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.
Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).
Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.
Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.
January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.
Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Anyone ??
Checking out GELANE this morning..how low will it go?
Its normally always the August and September storms that are normally the worst. The first 2 months are usually slow anyways. As you said Taz there is always a lag of nearly 2 months for things to change once it goes to neutral!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2010 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 17:37:11 S Lon : 62:04:00 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 916.0mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.7 6.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km
Center Temp : -26.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C
Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
i sure do
Never though I would be wishing the heat to return to us in FL.
ScienceDaily (Feb. 19, 2010) — Several Midwestern states could be facing increased winter and spring flooding, as well as difficult growing conditions on farms, if average temperatures rise, according to a Purdue University researcher.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100217093258.htm
Thanks Dr. Masters.
...does anyone have any updates on the potential Mon-Tues storm for the Ohio Valley??
I didn't find out you could change your email on an existing handle until it was too late. Oh well :-/
That Dot Map is a JOKE!
The average temperature in the month of January 2010 for Tampa International Airport averaged 6.6F degrees below average. Typically in January, our daytime highs approach 70 while overnight lows are near 52. If we were near those normals, the average monthly temperature would be about 61.3 degrees F.
January 2010 was a cold month though, with an average monthly temperature of 54.7 degrees F. That is 6.6 degrees F below average. That makes January in Tampa the sixth coldest on record.
February is not looking much better either as we already are running below average. So far our monthly average of highs and lows combined is 57.6F This is 4.2 degrees F below average. The next 5-7 days all look below average and even the extended models suggest the rest of the month will remain cooler than average. So much for the warm Florida winters!
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER MODEL CHAOS CONTINUES AND PINNING DOWN ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OR STORM SPECIFICS IS A DIFFICULT TASK TO SAY THE
LEAST. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE HOMED IN ON ONE OF TWO BASIC
SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE CONFUSION LIES IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC CYCLONE SOUTH OF ALASKA. THIS FORECAST
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/AND 12Z ECMWF. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 00Z GFS HAS EXCELLENT SUPPORT FROM MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF WAS ON BOARD WITH
A SIMILAR SOLUTION PRIOR TO IS 00Z RUN FLOPPING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. THE FAVORED SOLUTION TRANSPORTS A PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY
NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE DOMINANT HIGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS
AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING A TROF OVER
THE NORTHWEST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE COLD AIR RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTH PLACING THE UPPER TROF IN A
VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z GFS ARE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND COLD COLUMN
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER OBVIOUS CONCERNS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. THE
00Z CANADIAN TRANSPORTS PACIFIC ENERGY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS VERY
SLOW TO DEVELOP A MASSIVE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS..AND FINALLY...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF TOTALLY FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
AFTER ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THINK THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MENTION RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITIES FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.
POPS/PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. GIVEN THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW
RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP SOME 20
POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER SOLUTION
PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.
REMARKS
THE JANUARY 2010 MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 54.7 DEGREES
RANKS AS THE SIXTH COLDEST JANUARY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1890.
THE COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
50.3 DEGREES WHICH OCCURRED IN 1981
the ave mean diff is 6.6F
Ave mean =61.3F= 16.3C
obs mean =54.7F= 12.6F
difference is 3.7C
Pretty close to the water, I don't think Orlando has trended as cold. Many nights they've been warmer than here in Melbourne were I'm getting some added warmth from the water. Watched that heat island grow yearly. Either way you need to do the converstions across the area. That dot looks like it would cover a few buoys so don't forget those..
Note: Gray areas signify missing data.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=0&type=a noms&mean_gen=01&year1=2010&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
Caused By El Nino?
It's been noted that and visible that, globally, the atmosphere will be more moist this year. Quite a few factors are pointing to a more productive season this time around.
Not once, did we hit the LONG TERM AVERAGE day time high as published by Enviroment Canada for January.
Please revise and resubmit a corrected red dot for this location.
Assuming that the SST anomalies don't change much within 2 weeks, one could say that the Jan 14 map is representative.
Tampa area looks like a bit more than 2C in the gulf, but is close.
What bothers me:
1. Very cold anomaly off of Newfoundland doesn't exist at all in the dots.
2. Most of the cold -1C waters of the north Pacific don't exist in the dots
3. The 2 and 3C areas in the dot map are huge...not in the SST anomalies
4. middle Atlantic values are generally near average in the dots, but SSTs show 1 - 2C negative
I am being picky, though, it does generally match up with the SST okay, outside of a few issues especially related to using land temperature measurements and averages carried out over ocean area.
My last issue is the baseline. We don't have much in the way of global coverage going back to 1971...what qualifies as "normal" SST then? A few buoys and ship measurements, both a meter below the surface. What is SST now? IR satellite measurements that are valid for the top-most few millimeters, which is why it is called skin temperature.
Amen, brother, amen!
Oceans are warming across the globe. In fact, globally oceans are accumulating energy at a rate of 4 x 1021 Joules per year - equivalent to 127,000 nuclear plants (which have an average output of 1 gigawatt) pouring their energy directly into the world's oceans. This tells us the planet is in energy imbalance - more energy is coming in than radiating back out to space.
The notion that the ocean is causing global warming is ruled out by the observation that the ocean is warming (Levitus 2005). Internal climate changes such as El Nino and thermohaline variability stem from transfers of heat such as from the ocean to the atmosphere. If the ocean was feeding atmospheric warming, the oceans would be cooling.
Other studies
In fact, ocean observations confirm both global warming and its cause. Barnett 2007 compares observations of ocean temperatures to results from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and finds "model-produced signals are indistinguishable from the observations". This suggests "the observed ocean heat-content changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic forcing, which broadens the basis for claims that an anthropogenic signal has been detected in the global climate system."
Warming in the pipeline
The other consequence of the warming ocean is it means there is additional "warming in the pipeline". Even if CO2 emissions were to start falling now, we already face further global warming of about another half degree by the end of the 21st century (Meehl 2005).
http://www.skepticalscience.com/ocean-and-global-warming.htm
??? Question all you want, that is healthy. I do it myself.
Though, about the science, all over it and you know it.
Have you realized it was a joke?
Here it is again:
Now if you think I am really positing that the cost of a stamp is the cause of warming surface temps, well, I cannot help you.
My true opinion, btw, is that AGW is directly tied to the number of bagels consumed in NYC. Bagels cause global warming.
With a different base period.
How stupid. NEDIS/NOAA couldn't give us data we could compare?
Aggies explains GW with US postal stamps. ROFL
Enviroment Canada has 52.167N -106.717W Mean Temperature difference from Normal (1971-2000) (degrees C) at 4.3.
Speaking of jokes, it appears we have readers in here that do not get even the most obvious of jokes...
Oh no!!
Workers stand outside the Rebuilding Center in Portland, OR, which is the nation%u2019s largest nonprofit for salvaged construction and remodeling materials. The Center offers employees living wage positions with benefits. Portland created more than 20,000 green jobs in 2007 alone. This is a CAP repost.
Clean energy jobs continue to make inroads in the U.S. economy. Growth in these jobs was a robust 9.1 percent between 1998 and 2007 compared to 3.7 percent overall, and in January President Obama promised $2.3 billion in Recovery Act Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credits for clean-energy manufacturing projects nationwide that will create tens of thousands of clean-energy jobs. Meanwhile, the stimulus bill is pumping $30 billion into the clean-energy sector, and aggressive smart grid deployment could create 270,000 U.S. jobs and a further 138,000 if our smart grid technologies are exported to a global market.
Some regions have become green jobs strongholds. Here are the top five U.S. cities that are seeing the most growth:
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/19/the-top-five-cities-for-clean-energy-jobs/
We have a major short term weather pattern shift for the Continental USA, starting this weekend.
We will go from a zonal west to east pattern, with weak weather systems and changable weather to a split flow, where the Polar and Sub Tropical Jets will introduce colder Arctic air from the North and warm, moist air over the S US, with pieces of upper level energy across the SW, S Plains into the SE.
Boy, I wish that was the blog topic for today.
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/84277557.html
BTW, Coleman did a special last night that is accessible through the link above.
Awsome!!!! Can you please explain.......ROFLMAO!!
Me too
The link also quotes "Cazenave et al 2008 concludes that the steric sea level has been falling since 2006. The ARGO data shows that there has been a recent swift fall in ocean heat content globally. (Oct 2009 prelim data)" Some say hotter, some say colder and thanks to search engines we can all find documented, peer reviwed data to support either conclusion...
I don't understand why we can't discuss climate change/variability the way we discuss everything else. I know that variety is the spice of life, but man, these discussions usually become like a World War.
Unrestricted burning of fossil fuels threatens a new wave of die-offs
Marine life face some of the worst impacts. We now know that global warming is “capable of wrecking the marine ecosystem and depriving future generations of the harvest of the seas” (see 2009 Nature Geoscience study concludes ocean dead zones “devoid of fish and seafood” are poised to expand and “remain for thousands of years”).
The acidification of the ocean in particular is a grave threat — for links to primary sources and recent studies, see “Imagine a World without Fish: Deadly ocean acidification — hard to deny, harder to geo-engineer, but not hard to stop” (and below).
A new Nature Geoscience study, “Past constraints on the vulnerability of marine calcifiers to massive carbon dioxide release” (subs. req’d) provides a truly ominous warning. The release from the researchers at the University of Bristol is “Rate of ocean acidification the fastest in 65 million years.”
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/18/ocean-acidification-study-mass-extinction-of-marine-life-natu re-geoscience/
Quantifying atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]atm) during Earth’s ancient greenhouse episodes is essential for accurately predicting the response of future climate to elevated CO2 levels. Empirical estimates of [CO2]atm during Paleozoic and Mesozoic greenhouse climates are based primarily on the carbon isotope composition of calcium carbonate in fossil soils. We report that greenhouse [CO2]atm have been significantly overestimated because previously assumed soil CO2 concentrations during carbonate formation are too high. More accurate [CO2]atm, resulting from better constraints on soil CO2, indicate that large (1,000s of ppmV) fluctuations in [CO2]atm did not characterize ancient climates and that past greenhouse climates were accompanied by concentrations similar to those projected for A.D. 2100.
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576
Why don't you post than your peer reviewed study which supports the cooling trend you talking about.
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