January 2010: extremes and monthly summary
The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.
Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:
According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.
A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.
Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).
Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.
Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.
Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.
U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::
All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.
Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.
The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.
Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.
Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.
Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.
Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).
Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)
Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.
Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.
Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.
Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.
Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).
Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.
Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.
January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.
Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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FXUS64 KHGX 202149
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SFC PLOT SHOWS DW PTS SLOWING INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR 60
COASTAL SW AND MID 50S UPPER COASTAL ZONES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS
ARE EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECT SEA FOG TO
REFORM THIS EVENING AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN MORNING.
THEREFORE..WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS AFT FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL AREAS.
TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD. FIRST IS CHC OF STRONG
TSTMS TOMORROW AND THEN WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE LOWER POP NUMBERS FROM THE NAM FOR
SUNDAY AS I THINK THE CAP IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL SEE SCT SHWRS...BUT QUESTIONABLE CONCERNING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL REALIZE WITH LITTLE SUN AND A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE. IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN...IT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE AFT HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. WILL
MENTION TSTMS AREAWIDE...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. A COUPLE
COULD BE STRONG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IF CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH.
THE LATEST GFS HAS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY CONCERNING A CHC OF SNOW
ON TUE AND INTO TUE NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ONLY MADE A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS CONCERNING THIS EVENT. ADDED
A MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE EXTREME NW ON TUE MORNING AS 1000/500
MB THICKNESSES WILL BE NEAR 540 BY MID MORNING AND THE GFS INDICATES
A BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE FOR TUE. WE MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAKE IT DOWN TO HWY 59 AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF
TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT LATE ON TUE NIGHT. STAY TUNED IT IS
STILL EARLY FOR FIGURING ALL OF THIS OUT.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PD...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 33
&&
In analyzing all three models, the NAM remains the most aggressive developing a weak surface low and moving it right across South Florida with the potential for severe storms during the late afternoon to overnight hours on Monday. This is quite evident in the 18Z NAM Southeast Composite Reflectivity.
Both the GFS and ECMWF are pretty similar in their solutions in developing a weak low that comes across the Florida Straits, but both models aren't as aggressive in showing instability evolving over South Florida. In fact, the ECMWF indicates very weak instability, if any, over South Florida on Monday. Both models, in a general consensus, just forecast scattered storms across the area.
For now, the computer models will bare watching in the coming days leading to Monday to see exactly how this weak low evolves and, especially, where the low tracks. If the low tracks south as the GFS and ECMWF suggest, then there will only be some scattered showers and thunderstorms. But if the low tracks right over South Florida as the NAM suggests, South Florida could see some severe weather with the primary threats being heavy rainfall, straightline gusts, and an isolated tornado. Only time will tell.
I agree, since the SAL is one of the last limiting factors that we're still unsure about. Based on the pattern I expect it will be near normal or slightly above, which would be good for the Cape Verde season.
That's what? About three weeks from now? Thats way too soon to tell right now.
Did it take you this long to dig out of the snow up there in da Creek?
You could always check my website when it comes that time at the CCHS Weather Center where I create forecasts for South, Central, and North Florida.
It does...a lot in the summer due to the seabreeze when there is enough instability. Florida sees the most number of days with thunderstorms than any other state in the U.S.
This doesn't happen much in the winter though.
Yesterday:
Today:
Both these images are of Tuesday Afternoon at 18z.
That's still about three weeks out, so it'll be some time before an accurate forecast is drawn up for that time period, but if the Climate Prediction Center is anything to go by, it may be a bit cooler and wetter than usual.
I know that you both seem focussed on possible winter weather in Texas, but I wanted to get your thoughts on the possible potent storm for South Florida come Monday. The NAM has been quite aggressive with this storm.
I am not disappointed, as I got to have a White Christmas in DFW, TX and see 14" of snow on the ground.
A friend of mine and I drove around Arlington, TX today. The 2/11-12 snowstorm has shattered MANY large tree limbs, I was shocked to see that!
However the 18Z NAM run for today puts DFW just North of the heaviest precip axis, 72 HRS 2/23 @12Noon CST:
Well it's hard to say. It depends on how sharp the shortwave is. As you said the NAM is the most aggressive. I'm leaning towards a weaker solution though as the shortwave will be rounding the axis of a flattening ridge, and it honestly already looks so weak on most of the models that you can barely see it. I'd expect a few showers and thunderstorms with a few inches of rain as the increased instability moves through, but nothing really severe.
The GFS seems the only model that doesn't fathom this surface wave/low associated with the shortwave trough and is further south carrying the bulk of the precipitation through the Florida straits. The NAM, CMC, and UKMET have similar solutions dumping high QPF amounts. The NAM shows anywhere from 4-6inches of rain with strong mid level forcing. The CMC and UKMET do not appear to be too far off from that estimate. The NMM shows many embedded vortices within the shortwave trough and carry with it lots of moisture. I'm leaning towards the CMC and UKMET, which aren't as aggressive as the NAM but still reasonable.
Now...that just doesn't make sense on the part of the GFS. That run only has .25 inches of liquid for most of northern and central Texas. There's no way 10 inches is going to fall with the scenario I saw on the 12z. That snow axis will probably not end up that far south either.
*edit* my bad I read that wrong lol it's 6 inches not 10. Even 6 though is quite a stretch based on the scenario the 12z GFS portrays.
When exactly, how strong and even how long is still up in the air(probably not as long as the outbreak early-mid January). The models more or less want to phase a polar vortex over the northern Ohio Valley by next weekend.
Or coarse it won't be as bad as the Jan. 9th-11th outbreak(hopefully since it's no longer mid-January). But for late February, there looks to be major departures from normal.
I'm not wishing for the cold. Just love seeing extreme weather!
Let's see how this pans out!
Doesn't a 1/4" translate into a 4-6" snow total depending on it being a wet or dry snow? I always thought that was the ratio but, i could be wrong.
The CMC which Drak mentioned has a nice area of upward motion over Florida in 60 hours. With the storm over the Ohio valley developing a secondary low near the Carolinas I can see the area of decent rain amounts that the NAM is forecasting, though I think 6 inches is a little high.
That's a 20:1 ratio and that won't happen in Texas with this storm. It's dang hard to get 20:1 in Texas at all. I'm not good with history but I can't think of a time when that happened. Ratios will be 10:1 at max along the axis of heaviest snow. That makes .25 inches of liquid 2-3 inches of snow, which is all that would fall if the 12z GFS pans out.
I don't like using the graphics from that site. They are based mainly on snow ratios of 10:1.
Temp 69F
Humidity 15%
Dewpoint 19F
Winds Light and Variable
Sorry, I had to run out...
But yeah, the SAL will probably affect the CV systems, but not affect anything beyond say 60 West. It will be fun to see how many waves make it through to 60W or so, and whether they can keep their potential, if the SAL is strong.
The more south the wave axis is, the better the chance I think.
The GFS 12z showed .5-.75in in the heavy snow axis between I-20 and I-10. That graphic based on a 10:1 ratio would give you estimates in the 5-8 inch range.
Well ok back in west-central Texas that's true. I guess I'm focusing more on Dallas/Fort Worth right now. I really don't believe 5-8 inches anywhere with the 12z scenario in any case.
From Houston
From Fort Worth
From Abilene.
000
NOUS44 KLCH 200247
PNSLCH
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-201800-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
847 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010
...SABINE RIVER AT DEWEYVILLE FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR FIRST
TIME IN 114 DAYS...
AROUND 6 PM TODAY...THE SABINE RIVER AT DEWEYVILLE TEXAS FELL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER 29 2009. THIS
IS AN INCREDIBLE 114 DAYS...OR 3 MONTHS AND 22 DAYS...THAT THIS
RIVER FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS AND WATER RELEASES FROM TOLEDO
BEND RESERVOIR HAVE KEPT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SABINE
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.
$$
SHAMBURGER
If the models are right about a slower shortwave (the GFS is like 12 hours slower from yesterday) then snow will be hard to come by, especially in Dallas.
I don't think anyone is snow wishcasting. I think everyone in north and central Texas will see some snow. The key is assessing how much will fall, where the snow axis will set up and forecast using reasonable snow to liquid ratios based on examining the snow microphysics and vertical soundings.
I would agree based on yesterday's runs, but if the newer runs are right in slowing down the shortwave, snow will have a hard time making it past west Texas and the mountains of New Mexico. Based on the newer runs, by the time the shortwave makes it far enough east to affect Dallas or Austin, the surface flow will all be northerly, too dry for much snow beyond some flurries.
Right now this is all model play....I think the GFS had a better handle on the situation yesterday, but we'll see how it pans out. This is a harder storm to predict for both Texas and the east coast than the previous storms over the last month.
18z GFS has even less snow totals in eastern and north Texas.
I'm not a fan of the 18z GFS in general due to the lack of data but I do look at all the GFS runs.
The other models seem to think that moisture will get to expand to the north. I'm sure tomorrow's models will have a better grip on the situation but I do agree that the GFS had a better handle on the situation yesterday.
By DANIEL WOOLLS, Associated Press Writer 1 hr 13 mins ago
MADRID – Flooding and landslides swept away cars and knocked down houses as a violent storm killed at least 32 people Saturday on the Portuguese island of Madeira, a news agency reported.
The Lusa agency quoted the vice president of the Madeira regional government, Joao Cunha e Silva, as saying another 68 people have been hospitalized in the island's main city, Funchal.
Madeira is the main island of a Portuguese archipelago of the same name, in the Atlantic off the northwest coast of Africa.
Floods tore down houses as the storm hit early Saturday. Roads were blocked by fallen trees and rocks carried by flood waters, and some bridges were also downed, Lusa said.
Phone lines were knocked out, forcing emergency rescue services to appeal over local radio stations for off-duty doctors and nurses to report for duty.
Local authorities called in employees to operate heavy machinery like bulldozers to clear roads and remove debris. People in low-lying areas of Funchal fled as flood waters rose, Lusa said.
Madeira regional president Alberto Joao Jardim spoke to European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, who is Portuguese, to appeal for emergency aid from the European Union.
Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates promised that help would be sent from the Portuguese mainland.
Agreed
april
i think...
His next forecast comes in April.
from Dr. Gray
Wednesday April 7, Wednesday 2 June, and Wednesday 4 August
from TSR
Tuesday 6th April 2010
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